我国装备制造产品出口贸易潜力及贸易效率研究——基于“一带一路”国家的实证研究
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摘要
本文利用随机前沿分析方法,选取了2007—2015年62个"一带一路"沿线国家,对我国对"一带一路"沿线国家装备制造产品出口的贸易潜力和贸易效率进行分析。研究表明,伙伴国的人口规模、人均GDP、双边距离对我国装备制造产品出口贸易规模影响显著;我国装备制造产品出口的贸易效率整体上在逐年提升,但平均贸易效率低于0. 5,且细分行业的贸易效率水平参差不齐,不同区域的贸易效率也存在差异。实证分析还表明,"一带一路"倡议的推行、互联网发展水平的提升、贸易运输基础设施的完善对出口贸易效率提升有积极作用,论文最后探讨了推进我国与"一带一路"沿线国家扩大贸易规模和提升贸易效率的建议。
This paper applies Stochastic Frontier Analysis( SFA) to a data set of select 62 countries along the Belt and Road from 2007 to 2015,and analyzes trade potential and trade efficiency of China's exports of equipment manufacturing products to the Belt and Road countries. The research identifies three factors having significant impacts on export trade scale of China's equipment manufacturing products,including population size and per capita GDP of partner countries and the bilateral geographical distance between China and those countries. Although the trade efficiency of China's exports of equipment manufacturing products has improved gradually year by year in general,the average trade efficiency is still less than 0. 5,with great disparity among trade efficiencies of industry subdivisions and differences between various regions. The empirical analysis also discovers positive effects on export efficiency from the implementation of the Belt and Road initiative,the degree of development of the Internet,and the optimization of trade transportation infrastructures. Finally,the paper proposes how to expand trade scale between China and the Belt and Road countries and how to improve trade efficiency.
This paper applies Stochastic Frontier Analysis( SFA) to a data set of select 62 countries along the Belt and Road from 2007 to 2015,and analyzes trade potential and trade efficiency of China's exports of equipment manufacturing products to the Belt and Road countries. The research identifies three factors having significant impacts on export trade scale of China's equipment manufacturing products,including population size and per capita GDP of partner countries and the bilateral geographical distance between China and those countries. Although the trade efficiency of China's exports of equipment manufacturing products has improved gradually year by year in general,the average trade efficiency is still less than 0. 5,with great disparity among trade efficiencies of industry subdivisions and differences between various regions. The empirical analysis also discovers positive effects on export efficiency from the implementation of the Belt and Road initiative,the degree of development of the Internet,and the optimization of trade transportation infrastructures. Finally,the paper proposes how to expand trade scale between China and the Belt and Road countries and how to improve trade efficiency.
引文
[1]陈爱贞,刘志彪,吴福象.下游动态技术引进对装备制造业升级的市场约束——基于我国纺织缝制装备制造业的实证研究[J].管理世界,2008(2):72-81.
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[9]王亮,吴浜源.“丝绸之路经济带”的贸易潜力——基于“自然贸易伙伴”假说和随机前沿引力模型的分析[J].经济学家,2016(4):33-41.
[10]文淑惠,张昕.中南半岛贸易潜力及其影响因素——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2017(10):97-108.
[11]张玉芹,李辰.我国装备制造业在全球价值链的地位分析[J].国际商务:对外经济贸易大学学报,2016(5):76-87.
[12]AIGNER D,et al. Formulation and Estimation of Stochastic Frontier Production Function Models[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1977,6(1):21-37.
[13]RAVISHANKAR G,STACK M M. The Gravity Model and Trade Efficiency:A Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Eastern European Countries'Potential Trade[J]. World Economy,2014,37(5):690-704.
[14]TAMINI L,et al. Trade Performance and Potential of North African Countries:An Application of a Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model[J]. Cahiers De Recherche Create,2016(4):1-37.
[15]TINBERGEN J. Shaping the World Economy:Suggestions for an International Economic Policy[M]. New York:The Twentieth Century Fund,1962.
[16]VIORICA E D. Econometric Analysis of Foreign Trade Efficiency of E. U. Members Using Gravity Equations[J].Procedia Economics and Finance,2015(20):670-678.
[2]陈创练,谢学臻,林玉婷.全球贸易效率和贸易潜力及其影响因素分析[J].国际贸易问题,2016(7):27-39.
[3]黄群慧,贺俊.中国制造业的核心能力、功能定位与发展战略[J].中国工业经济,2015(6):5-17.
[4]林桂军,何武.中国装备制造业在全球价值链的地位及升级趋势[J].国际贸易问题,2015(4):3-15.
[5]鲁晓东,赵奇伟.中国的出口潜力及其影响因素——基于随机前沿引力模型的估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010(10):21-35.
[6]牛泽东,张倩肖.中国装备制造业的技术创新效率[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2012(11):51-67.
[7]綦良群,李兴杰.区域装备制造业产业结构升级机理及影响因素研究[J].中国软科学,2011(5):138-147.
[8]谭秀杰,周茂荣. 21世纪“海上丝绸之路”贸易潜力及其影响因素——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(2):3-12.
[9]王亮,吴浜源.“丝绸之路经济带”的贸易潜力——基于“自然贸易伙伴”假说和随机前沿引力模型的分析[J].经济学家,2016(4):33-41.
[10]文淑惠,张昕.中南半岛贸易潜力及其影响因素——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2017(10):97-108.
[11]张玉芹,李辰.我国装备制造业在全球价值链的地位分析[J].国际商务:对外经济贸易大学学报,2016(5):76-87.
[12]AIGNER D,et al. Formulation and Estimation of Stochastic Frontier Production Function Models[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1977,6(1):21-37.
[13]RAVISHANKAR G,STACK M M. The Gravity Model and Trade Efficiency:A Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Eastern European Countries'Potential Trade[J]. World Economy,2014,37(5):690-704.
[14]TAMINI L,et al. Trade Performance and Potential of North African Countries:An Application of a Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model[J]. Cahiers De Recherche Create,2016(4):1-37.
[15]TINBERGEN J. Shaping the World Economy:Suggestions for an International Economic Policy[M]. New York:The Twentieth Century Fund,1962.
[16]VIORICA E D. Econometric Analysis of Foreign Trade Efficiency of E. U. Members Using Gravity Equations[J].Procedia Economics and Finance,2015(20):670-678.