设施蔬菜农户病虫害综合防控行为风险评估——基于贝叶斯分类统计方法的实证分析
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摘要
[目的]高效防治手段的实施可以解决单纯依靠化学药剂防治病虫害的劣势,保障蔬菜质量和安全,然而我国设施蔬菜生产者的高效防控行为存在一定的缺失。[方法]文章对设施蔬菜典型种植区域的生产者样本数据进行分析,建立朴素的贝叶斯分类模型并进行样本的训练。从综合防治类型的角度选取了有利于减少病虫害风险的综合防控行为,进一步对设施蔬菜种植户病虫害综合防控行为缺失进行了风险评估。[结果]农户施用生物农药的行为比较普遍且易受到风险因素的影响。综合平稳性特征和后验概率值比对,政府是否有生产性补贴对农户土壤处理和生物农药施用行为的缺失影响较大,生产者种植年限和风险投保行为对农户绿色防控行为的缺失影响较大。总的来说,生产者的种植年限、是否享有政府补贴、风险投保、农产品认证、生产专业组织成员资格等因素都是可能致使防控行为的缺失的风险因素。[结论]政策启示:在"预防为主,综合防治"的植保工作方针指导下开展防治,实施相关的奖惩制度、建立严格的农产品质量安全的监控体系、发挥基层组织的带动作用、大力推广高效防控技术在设施蔬菜生产者群体中的应用。
The implementation of efficient prevention and control means can solve the disadvantages of relying solely on chemical agents to control pests and diseases,effectively reduce the resistance of pests and diseases,and ensure the quality and safety of vegetables. This research analyzed the producer sample data of typical planting areas of facility vegetables,established a simple Bayesian classification model and conducted sample training. From the perspective of comprehensive prevention and control types,it carried out a risk assessment of the comprehensive prevention and control behaviors,which were conducive to reducing the risk of pests and diseases. The results are showed that the behavior of farmers' applying bio-pesticides is more common and vulnerable to risk factors. The stability characteristics are compared with the posterior probability,the producer' s productive subsidy has a greater impact on the farmer's soil treatment and biological pesticide application,the farmer's planting years and insurance affect the farmers' green prevention and control behavior. In general,factors such as the age of farmer,government subsidies,risk insurance,agricultural product certification,and membership of production professional organizations are all risk factors that may lead to the lack of prevention and control behavior. The valuable enlightenment of the policy are showed as follows. Under the guidance of the " prevention-based,comprehensive prevention and control" work guidelines of plant protection,it should carry out government-level prevention and control,carry out the reward and punishment system related to pest and disease prevention,establish strict supervision and control system for agricultural product quality and safety,and vigorously promote the application of high efficiency control technology in the community of facility vegetable producers.
The implementation of efficient prevention and control means can solve the disadvantages of relying solely on chemical agents to control pests and diseases,effectively reduce the resistance of pests and diseases,and ensure the quality and safety of vegetables. This research analyzed the producer sample data of typical planting areas of facility vegetables,established a simple Bayesian classification model and conducted sample training. From the perspective of comprehensive prevention and control types,it carried out a risk assessment of the comprehensive prevention and control behaviors,which were conducive to reducing the risk of pests and diseases. The results are showed that the behavior of farmers' applying bio-pesticides is more common and vulnerable to risk factors. The stability characteristics are compared with the posterior probability,the producer' s productive subsidy has a greater impact on the farmer's soil treatment and biological pesticide application,the farmer's planting years and insurance affect the farmers' green prevention and control behavior. In general,factors such as the age of farmer,government subsidies,risk insurance,agricultural product certification,and membership of production professional organizations are all risk factors that may lead to the lack of prevention and control behavior. The valuable enlightenment of the policy are showed as follows. Under the guidance of the " prevention-based,comprehensive prevention and control" work guidelines of plant protection,it should carry out government-level prevention and control,carry out the reward and punishment system related to pest and disease prevention,establish strict supervision and control system for agricultural product quality and safety,and vigorously promote the application of high efficiency control technology in the community of facility vegetable producers.
引文
[1]苏浩一.浅析棚室蔬菜病虫害发生的影响因素及防治措施.农技服务,2016,13(33):99.
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[3]屈进峰.大棚蔬菜病虫害综合防控技术探讨.农业与技术,2015,35(4):147.
[4]程玲,薛光山,刘永杰,等.蔬菜病虫害防治中农药减量增效的影响因素及改进措施.农学通报,2018,8(2):11-14.
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[6]徐璟,钱荣明.设施蔬菜病虫害绿色综合防控技术.农家参谋,2017(12):82-85.
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[9]朱淀,张秀玲,牛亮云.蔬菜种植农户施用生物农药意愿研究.中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(4):64-70.
[10]傅新红,宋汶庭.农户生物农药购买意愿及购买行为的影响因素分析——以四川省为例.农业技术经济,2010(6):120-128.
[11]张云华,马九杰,孔祥智,等.农户采用无公害和绿色农药行为的影响因素分析——对山西、陕西和山东15县(市)的实证分析.中国农村经济,2004(1):41-49.
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[13]马永生,韩德伟,韩秋香.浅析生物农药及其应用现状与对策.吉林农业科学,2007,32(4):43-45.
[14]陈江霞.棚室土壤消毒技术.新农业,2013(5):27-28.
[15]杨志海,麦尔旦·吐尔孙,王雅鹏.不同类型农户土壤保护认知及行为决策研究——以江汉平原368户农户调查为例.华中农业大学学报,2015(3):15-20.
[16]郑纪芳,史建民.保护耕地与农户的认知度:462个样本.改革,2008(12):82-86.
[17]刘洪彬,吕杰.基于农户微观视角下的大城市郊区耕地土壤质量变化驱动机制研究.自然资源学报,2015,30(7):1129-1140.
[18]卢彦琦,李炎,薛晴.基于CVM的河北8市农户对土壤污染防治支付意愿影响因素研究.河北工程大学学报(社会科学版),2018,35(2):13-15.
[19]许小俊,刘燕群,李晓娜.农户绿色防控采纳意愿及其影响因素调查分析——基于海南208个样本农户的实证调查.农业与技术,2016,36(14):33-35.
[20] BONABANA WABBI. Assessing factors affecting adoption of agricultural technologies:The case of integrated pest management(IPM)in Kumidistrict. Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University,2002.
[21]耿宇宁,郑少峰,陆迁.经济激励、社会网络对农户绿色防控技术采纳行为的影响——来自陕西猕猴桃主产区的证据.华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017(6):59-69.
[22] PIETOLA K S,LANSINK A O. Farmer response to policies promoting organic farming technologies in Finland. European re-view of agriculturaleconomics,2001(28):1-15.
[23] SHERLUND S M,BARRETT C B,ADESINA A A. Smallholder technical efficiency controlling for environmental production condition. Journalof Development Economic,2002,69(1):85-101.
[24]陈印军,方琳娜,杨俊彦.我国农田土壤污染状况及防治对策.中国农业资源与区划,2014,35(4):1-5.
[25]钟秀明,武雪萍.我国农田污染与农产品质量安全现状、问题与对策.中国农业资源与区划,2007,28(5):27-32.
[2]赵文举.设施农业发展与蔬菜病虫害防治研究.农民致富之友,2016(11):26.
[3]屈进峰.大棚蔬菜病虫害综合防控技术探讨.农业与技术,2015,35(4):147.
[4]程玲,薛光山,刘永杰,等.蔬菜病虫害防治中农药减量增效的影响因素及改进措施.农学通报,2018,8(2):11-14.
[5]阳检,高申荣,吴林海.分散农户农药施用行为研究.黑龙江农业科学,2010(1):45-47.
[6]徐璟,钱荣明.设施蔬菜病虫害绿色综合防控技术.农家参谋,2017(12):82-85.
[7]商鸿生,王凤葵.蔬菜植保员手册.北京:北京金盾出版社,2009.
[8]王建华,刘茁,浦徐进.基于贝叶斯网络的农业生产者农药施用行为风险评估.经济评论,2016(1):91-104.
[9]朱淀,张秀玲,牛亮云.蔬菜种植农户施用生物农药意愿研究.中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(4):64-70.
[10]傅新红,宋汶庭.农户生物农药购买意愿及购买行为的影响因素分析——以四川省为例.农业技术经济,2010(6):120-128.
[11]张云华,马九杰,孔祥智,等.农户采用无公害和绿色农药行为的影响因素分析——对山西、陕西和山东15县(市)的实证分析.中国农村经济,2004(1):41-49.
[12] OLE SKOVAMND. Microbial control in southeast Asia. Journal of Invertebrate Pathology,2007(7):168-174.
[13]马永生,韩德伟,韩秋香.浅析生物农药及其应用现状与对策.吉林农业科学,2007,32(4):43-45.
[14]陈江霞.棚室土壤消毒技术.新农业,2013(5):27-28.
[15]杨志海,麦尔旦·吐尔孙,王雅鹏.不同类型农户土壤保护认知及行为决策研究——以江汉平原368户农户调查为例.华中农业大学学报,2015(3):15-20.
[16]郑纪芳,史建民.保护耕地与农户的认知度:462个样本.改革,2008(12):82-86.
[17]刘洪彬,吕杰.基于农户微观视角下的大城市郊区耕地土壤质量变化驱动机制研究.自然资源学报,2015,30(7):1129-1140.
[18]卢彦琦,李炎,薛晴.基于CVM的河北8市农户对土壤污染防治支付意愿影响因素研究.河北工程大学学报(社会科学版),2018,35(2):13-15.
[19]许小俊,刘燕群,李晓娜.农户绿色防控采纳意愿及其影响因素调查分析——基于海南208个样本农户的实证调查.农业与技术,2016,36(14):33-35.
[20] BONABANA WABBI. Assessing factors affecting adoption of agricultural technologies:The case of integrated pest management(IPM)in Kumidistrict. Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University,2002.
[21]耿宇宁,郑少峰,陆迁.经济激励、社会网络对农户绿色防控技术采纳行为的影响——来自陕西猕猴桃主产区的证据.华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017(6):59-69.
[22] PIETOLA K S,LANSINK A O. Farmer response to policies promoting organic farming technologies in Finland. European re-view of agriculturaleconomics,2001(28):1-15.
[23] SHERLUND S M,BARRETT C B,ADESINA A A. Smallholder technical efficiency controlling for environmental production condition. Journalof Development Economic,2002,69(1):85-101.
[24]陈印军,方琳娜,杨俊彦.我国农田土壤污染状况及防治对策.中国农业资源与区划,2014,35(4):1-5.
[25]钟秀明,武雪萍.我国农田污染与农产品质量安全现状、问题与对策.中国农业资源与区划,2007,28(5):27-32.