中尺度海气浪耦合模式对西北太平洋双台风影响下的海浪预报研究
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摘要
为了分析中尺度海气浪耦合模式对西北太平洋双台风影响下的海浪预报效果,采用GFS全球预报系统和西北太平洋海洋预报系统预报场驱动区域中尺度海气浪耦合模式,针对西北太平洋一次"双台风"共同影响下的台风浪进行了连续5 d逐日72 h预报,并分析了海浪场预报分布特征,检验了耦合模式的海浪预报性。结果表明,耦合模式能较好地预报出双台风移动路径,以及双台影响下的海浪分布、演变特征。台风浪的最大有效波高与近中心最大风速成正比、中心最低气压成反比的演变规律与模式预报的较为一致,波高的整体预报效果与卫星高度计观测值较为吻合。但台风浪的预报效果受台风强度、所处海域等影响,远海期间海浪的预报效果要优于近海和台风强度明显变化期的。研究结果可为后续耦合模式的台风浪业务化定量预报发展提供有益参考。
The mesoscale coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model is introduced in this paper and its forecast performance for wind wave parameters over the northwestern Pacific Ocean has been evaluated by using the GFS and the Northwest Pacific ocean forecasting data. The researchers carried out a 72-h forecasting experiment for 5 days, when the binary typhoons took place over the northwestern Pacific Ocean, and examined the distribution characteristics and predictability of the wind wave field. The results showed that the typhoon tracks as well as the characteristics of wave distribution and evolution can be well forecasted. It is found that the forecasted significant wave height increases with increasing maximum wind and decreasing minimum surface pressure near the typhoon center. The forecasted significant wave height field is well consistent with the satellite altimeters observations of Jason-3. Because of the impact of specific intensity and location, the forecast performance of wind wave parameters over the open sea is better than that over the offshore areas and that during the abrupt changing period of typhoon intensity. In this paper, the related conclusions can provide some useful reference for the operational quantitative forecasts of typhoon waves by using the coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model.
The mesoscale coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model is introduced in this paper and its forecast performance for wind wave parameters over the northwestern Pacific Ocean has been evaluated by using the GFS and the Northwest Pacific ocean forecasting data. The researchers carried out a 72-h forecasting experiment for 5 days, when the binary typhoons took place over the northwestern Pacific Ocean, and examined the distribution characteristics and predictability of the wind wave field. The results showed that the typhoon tracks as well as the characteristics of wave distribution and evolution can be well forecasted. It is found that the forecasted significant wave height increases with increasing maximum wind and decreasing minimum surface pressure near the typhoon center. The forecasted significant wave height field is well consistent with the satellite altimeters observations of Jason-3. Because of the impact of specific intensity and location, the forecast performance of wind wave parameters over the open sea is better than that over the offshore areas and that during the abrupt changing period of typhoon intensity. In this paper, the related conclusions can provide some useful reference for the operational quantitative forecasts of typhoon waves by using the coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model.
引文
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[23]文元桥,黄立文,余胜生,等.基于移动代理技术的海-气-浪耦合模拟系统[J].武汉理工大学学报,2006,28(3):125-127.
[24]Wen Y,Huang L,Jian D,et al.Framework of Distributed Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Modeling System[J].大气科学进展,2006,23(3):442-448.
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[28]刘娜,李本霞,王辉,等.西北太平洋浪流相互作用对有效波高的影响研究[J].海洋学报,2016,38(9):21-31.
[29]孙瑞.南海北部台风浪的时空变化规律和动力机制[D].青岛:中国科学院研究生院(海洋研究所),2013.
[30]周良明.卫星海洋遥感导论[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[31]Atlas R,Hoffman R N,Bloom S C,et al.A multiyear global surface wind velocity dataset using SSM/I wind observations.[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1996,77(5):869-882.
[2]王爱军.近年来我国海洋灾害损失及防灾减灾策略[J].地质学刊,2005,29(2):98-101.
[3]赵红军,宋志尧,徐福敏,等.南中国海台风浪数值模拟研究-以台风“珍珠”为例[J].海洋工程,2010,28(3):128-134.
[4]姬厚德,潘伟然,张国荣.台湾海峡及厦门湾台风浪场数值模拟[J].海洋预报,2010,27(1):44-48.
[5]Miles J W.On the generation of surface waves by shear flows[J].Journal of Fluid Mechanics,1957,3(2):185-204.
[6]Phillips O M.On the generation of waves by turbulent wind[J].Journal of Fluid Mechanics,1957,2(5):417-445.
[7]尹洪强.基于SWAN模式下南海台风浪的推算[D].大连:大连理工大学,2014.
[8]Group T W.The WAM Model—A third generation ocean wave prediction model[J].Journal of Physical Oceanography,1988,18(12):1775-1810.
[9]张洪生,辜俊波,王海龙,等.利用WAVEWATCH和SWAN嵌套计算珠江口附近海域的风浪场[J].热带海洋学报,2013,32(1):8-17.
[10]齐义泉,朱伯承,施平,等.WWATCH模式模拟南海海浪场的结果分析[J].海洋学报,2003,25(4):1-9.
[11]郑崇伟,周林,宋帅,等.1307号台风“苏力”台风浪数值模拟[J].厦门大学学报:自然版,2014,53(2):257-262.
[12]孔丛颖,史剑,李瑞杰,等.基于WAVEWATCH对台风“海马”和“米雷”台风浪的数值模拟[J].海洋环境科学,2013,32(3):419-423.
[13]Booij N,Ris R C,Holthuijsen L H.A third-generation wave model for coastal regions:1.Model description and validation[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans,1999,104(C4):7649-7666.
[14]应王敏,郑桥,朱陈陈,等.基于SWAN模式的"灿鸿"台风浪数值模拟[J].海洋科学,2017,41(4):108-117.
[15]张沥,郑崇伟,刘铁军,等.两种海浪模式对一次台风浪过程的模拟分析[J].广东海洋大学学报,2013,33(6):72-76.
[16]关皓,高峰,李荔姗,等.区域海-气耦合模式对海表粗糙度参数化方案的敏感性研究[J].海洋通报,2012,31(5):520-529.
[17]Tamura H,Waseda T,Miyazawa Y,et al.Current-induced modulation of the ocean wave spectrum and the role of nonlinear energy transfer[J].Journal of Physical Oceanography,2008,38(12):2662.
[18]Wada A,Kohno N,Kawai Y.Impact of wave-ocean interaction on Typhoon Hai-Tang in 2005[J].Sola,2010,6(Special Edition):13-16.
[19]Warner J C,Armstrong B,He R,et al.Development of a coupled ocean atmosphere wave sediment transport(COAWST)modeling system[J].Ocean Modelling,2010,35(3):230-244.
[20]Liu B,Liu H,Xie L,et al.A coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling system:simulation of the intensity of an idealized tropical cyclone[J].Monthly Weather Review,2010,139(1):132-152.
[21]关皓,周林,薛彦广,等.南海中尺度大气-海流-海浪耦合模式的建立及应用[J].热带气象学报,2012,28(2):211-218.
[22]刘磊,费建芳,黄小刚,等.大气-海浪-海流耦合模式的建立和一次台风过程的初步试验[J].物理学报,2012,61(14):523-531.
[23]文元桥,黄立文,余胜生,等.基于移动代理技术的海-气-浪耦合模拟系统[J].武汉理工大学学报,2006,28(3):125-127.
[24]Wen Y,Huang L,Jian D,et al.Framework of Distributed Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Modeling System[J].大气科学进展,2006,23(3):442-448.
[25]Doyle J D.Coupled Atmosphere ocean wave simulations under high wind conditions[J].Monthly Weather Review,2002,130(12):3087.
[26]Zhang J,Huang L,Wen Y,et al.A distributed coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model for typhoon wave numerical simulation[J].International Journal of Computer Mathematics,2009,86(12):2095-2103.
[27]Zhang J F,Huang L W,Wen Y Q,et al.Implementation of a distributed atmosphere-wave-ocean coupling model:Typhoon wave simulation in the China seas.[C]//International Symposium on Distributed Computing and Applications for Business,Engineering and Sciences.Hangzhou,October 12,2006.
[28]刘娜,李本霞,王辉,等.西北太平洋浪流相互作用对有效波高的影响研究[J].海洋学报,2016,38(9):21-31.
[29]孙瑞.南海北部台风浪的时空变化规律和动力机制[D].青岛:中国科学院研究生院(海洋研究所),2013.
[30]周良明.卫星海洋遥感导论[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[31]Atlas R,Hoffman R N,Bloom S C,et al.A multiyear global surface wind velocity dataset using SSM/I wind observations.[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1996,77(5):869-882.