借贷牧户偿债能力分析
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摘要
【目的】国家对牧区金融发展的支持,以及牧户对资金周转的需求使得牧区贷款较为普遍。贷款意味着牧户需要有还本付息的能力,因此,评价牧户的偿债能力,能为国家改善牧区发展提供一定的依据。【方法】运用文献综述法和描述性统计法对当前牧户借贷情况以及锡林郭勒盟整体的生产生活情况进行理论和现状分析。基于实地调研数据,通过演绎推理牧户的现金流和收益函数来评价牧户的偿债能力。【结果】牧区的还本能力较低,其付息能力相对较高。现金流入与流出的不对等,降低了牧户的偿债能力。2015—2017年实际牲畜出栏数量均小于收支均衡时的出栏量,牧户产生的利润为零,牧户处于亏损状态,牧户的偿债能力比较弱。【结论】对养畜规模或出栏规模较大的牧户可以适度增加借贷额度,反之,应减少借贷额度;金融机构放贷期限应该灵活变动;建议政府对牧户有外部的资金支持,适时补贴,缓解牧户的借贷压力,增强其偿债能力。
【Objective】The support of the state for the financial development of pastoral areas and the demand of pastoral households for capital turnover making the loan of pastoral areas more common. Loans mean that herdsmen need to be able to repay capital and interest. Therefore, the evaluation of herdsmens' ability to repay their debts can provide some basis for improving the development of pastoral areas by the state. 【Method】By using literature review method and descriptive statistical method, this paper analyzed the current situation of herdsmens' loan and production and life in Xilingol League. Based on the field survey data, the debt-paying ability of herdsman households was evaluated by deductive reasoning of the herdsman's cash flow and income function. 【Result】The herdsmen of pastoral areas have low repayment ability, and relatively high interest paying ability. The unequal cash inflows and outflows reduced the solvency of herdsmen. From 2015 to 2017, the actual number of livestock was less than that when the balance of income and expenditure was balanced. The profit generated by herdsmen was zero, the herdsmen were in a loss state, and the herdsmens' ability to pay debts was weak. 【Conclusion】 For the herdsmen with large livestock breeding scale or market scale, the loan quota can be increased moderately, on the contrary, loan quota should be reduced. The loan period of the financial institutions should be changed flexibly. It is suggested that the government should provide external financial support to herdsmen and subsidize in due course to alleviate the borrowing pressure of herdsmens and enhance their debt-paying ability.
【Objective】The support of the state for the financial development of pastoral areas and the demand of pastoral households for capital turnover making the loan of pastoral areas more common. Loans mean that herdsmen need to be able to repay capital and interest. Therefore, the evaluation of herdsmens' ability to repay their debts can provide some basis for improving the development of pastoral areas by the state. 【Method】By using literature review method and descriptive statistical method, this paper analyzed the current situation of herdsmens' loan and production and life in Xilingol League. Based on the field survey data, the debt-paying ability of herdsman households was evaluated by deductive reasoning of the herdsman's cash flow and income function. 【Result】The herdsmen of pastoral areas have low repayment ability, and relatively high interest paying ability. The unequal cash inflows and outflows reduced the solvency of herdsmen. From 2015 to 2017, the actual number of livestock was less than that when the balance of income and expenditure was balanced. The profit generated by herdsmen was zero, the herdsmen were in a loss state, and the herdsmens' ability to pay debts was weak. 【Conclusion】 For the herdsmen with large livestock breeding scale or market scale, the loan quota can be increased moderately, on the contrary, loan quota should be reduced. The loan period of the financial institutions should be changed flexibly. It is suggested that the government should provide external financial support to herdsmen and subsidize in due course to alleviate the borrowing pressure of herdsmens and enhance their debt-paying ability.
引文
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[12]史惠文,贺坤飞.锡林郭勒盟牧户民间高利贷情况调查[J].北方金融,2017(4):60-61.SHI H W,HE K F.Survey on private usury of herdsmen in Xilingol League[J].Northern Finance,2017(4):60-61.
[13]刘强,谷睿莹.西藏农牧民小额涉农信贷行为特征与对策建议--基于对当雄县的调查分析[J].西南金融,2014(7):58-60.LIU Q,GU R Y.The characteristics and countermeasures of Tibetan farmers and herdsmen's micro-agricultural credit behavior based on the investigation and analysis of Dangxiong County[J].Southwest Finance,2014(7):58-60.
[14]李源.内蒙古农牧交错带农牧户融资需求影响因素研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古财经大学,2015.LI Y.Study on the Influencing factors of farmers and herdsmen's financing demand in the agricultural-pastoral ecotone of Inner Mongolia[D].Huhehot:Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics,2015.
[15]黎春,赵德武,马永强.企业财务波动与经济景气水平--微观到宏观的交互影响与经验证据[J].经济与管理研究,2018,39(8):42-52.doi:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2018.08.004.LI CH,ZHAO D W,MA Y Q.Financial fluctuation and economic prosperity level of enterprises:Interaction and empirical evidence from micro to macro[J].Economic and Management Research,2018,39(8):42-52.doi:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2018.08.004.
[16]彭丁.企业偿债能力综合评价模型的构建与拓展[J].会计之友,2019(6):116-119.PENG D.Construction and development of comprehensive evaluation model of enterprise's debt solvency[J].Friends of Accounting,2019(6):116-119.
[17]和国忠.资本结构对企业盈利能力及偿债能力影响研究--以云南上市公司为例[J].会计之友,2019(3):67-70.HE G Z.A study on the impact of capital structure on corporate profitability and debt solvency:A case study of Yunnan listed companies[J].Friends of Accountants,2019(3):67-70.
[18]陶磊.中国少数民族地区金融排斥研究[D].成都:西南财经大学,2013.TAO L.Study on financial exclusion in minority areas of China[D].Chengdu:Southwest University of Finance and Economics,2013.
[19]王定祥,田庆刚,李伶俐,王小华.贫困型农户信贷需求与信贷行为实证研究[J].金融研究,2011(5):124-138.WANG D X,TIAN Q G,LI L L,WANG X H.Empirical study on credit demand and credit behavior of poor farmers[J].Financial Research,2011(5):124-138.
[20]程恩江,刘西川.小额信贷缓解农户正规信贷配给了吗--来自三个非政府小额信贷项目区的经验证据[J].金融研究,2010(12):190-206.doi:10.1360/972010-1084.CHENG EN J,LIU X CH.Does microfinance alleviate farmers'formal credit rationing?-Empirical evidence from three non-governmental microfinance project areas[J].Financial Research,2010(12):190-206.doi:10.1360/972010-1084.
[21]周宗安.农户信贷需求的调查与评析:以山东省为例[J].金融研究,2010(2):195-206.ZHOU Z A.Investigation and evaluation of farmers'credit demand:A case study of Shandong province[J].Financial Research,2010(2):195-206.
[22]黄祖辉,刘西川,程恩江.贫困地区农户正规信贷市场低参与程度的经验解释[J].经济研究,2009,44(4):116-128.HUANG Z H,LIU X C,CHENG E J.Empirical explanation of low participation in the regular credit market of farmers in poverty-stricken Areas[J].Economic Research,2009,44(4):116-128.
[2]STIGLITZ J E,WEISS A.Credit rationing in markets with imperfect Information[J].American Economic Review,1981,71(3):393-410.doi:10.1016/0309-586X(81)90042-X.
[3]DUONG P B,IZUMIDA Y.Rural development finance in Vietnam:A microeconometric analysis of household surveys[J].World Development,2002,30(2):319-335.doi:10.1016/S0305-750X(01)00112-7.
[4]PAL S.Household sectoral choice and effective demand for rural credit in India[J].Applied Economics,2002,34(14):1743-1755.doi:10.1080/00036840210121228.
[5]梁虎,罗剑朝,张珩.农地抵押贷款借贷行为对农户收入的影响--基于PSM模型的计量分析[J].农业技术经济,2017(10):106-118.doi:CNKI:SUN:NYJS.0.2017-10-010.LIANG H,LUO J C,ZHANG H.The impact of mortgage loan behavior on farmer's income:A quantitative analysis based on PSM model[J].Agricultural Technology Economy,2017(10):106-118.doi:CNKI:SUN:NYJS.0.2017-10-010.
[6]李长生,张文棋.信贷约束对农户收入的影响--基于分位数回归的分析[J].农业技术经济,2015(8):43-52.LI C S,ZHANG W Q.The impact of credit constraints on farmer's income:Based on quantile regression analysis[J].Agricultural Technology Economy,2015(8):43-52.
[7]陈熹,陈帅.社会资本质量与农户借贷可得性--基于职业声望的分析[J].江西社会科学,2018,38(5):218-226.doi:CNKI:SUN:JXSH.0.2018-05-037.CHEN X,CHEN S.Quality of social capital and farmer's accessibility to loan:An analysis based on professional reputation[J].Jiangxi Social Science,2018,38(5):218-226.doi:CNKI:SUN:JXSH.0.2018-05-037.
[8]殷浩栋,汪三贵,王彩玲.农户非正规金融信贷与正规金融信贷的替代效应--基于资本禀赋和交易成本的再审视[J].经济与管理研究,2017,38(9):64-73.doi:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2017.09.007.YIN H D,WANG S G,WANG C L.The substitution effect of informal financial credit and formal financial credit for farmers:a re-examination based on capital endowment and transaction cost[J].Economic and management research,2017,38(9):64-73.doi:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2017.09.007.
[9]王国宝,余国新.区域视角下的农户金融借贷需求实证研究--基于新疆不同地区的调查[J].广东农业科学,2014,41(17):224-229,236.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-874X.2014.17.047.WANG G B,YU G X.An empirical study on farmer's financial loan demand from regional perspective:Based on the survey of different areas in Xinjiang[J].Guangdong Agricultural Science,2014,41(17):224-229,236.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-874X.2014.17.047.
[10]蔡海龙,关佳晨.不同经营规模农户借贷需求分析[J].农业技术经济,2018(4):90-97.CAI H L,GUAN J C.Demand analysis of farmer households'borrowing and lending in different scale of operation[J].Agricultural Technology Economy,2018(4):90-97.
[11]王建浩,殷浩栋,汪三贵,朱烈夫.政治社会资本对农户借贷行为的影响研究--基于8省2185户农户数据的实证分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2019,33(3):1-6.WANG J H,YIN H D,WANG S G,ZHU L F.The impact of political and social capital on farmers'lending behavior:An empirical analysis based on the data of 2185 farmers in 8 provinces[J].Resources and Environment in Arid Areas,2019,33(3):1-6.
[12]史惠文,贺坤飞.锡林郭勒盟牧户民间高利贷情况调查[J].北方金融,2017(4):60-61.SHI H W,HE K F.Survey on private usury of herdsmen in Xilingol League[J].Northern Finance,2017(4):60-61.
[13]刘强,谷睿莹.西藏农牧民小额涉农信贷行为特征与对策建议--基于对当雄县的调查分析[J].西南金融,2014(7):58-60.LIU Q,GU R Y.The characteristics and countermeasures of Tibetan farmers and herdsmen's micro-agricultural credit behavior based on the investigation and analysis of Dangxiong County[J].Southwest Finance,2014(7):58-60.
[14]李源.内蒙古农牧交错带农牧户融资需求影响因素研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古财经大学,2015.LI Y.Study on the Influencing factors of farmers and herdsmen's financing demand in the agricultural-pastoral ecotone of Inner Mongolia[D].Huhehot:Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics,2015.
[15]黎春,赵德武,马永强.企业财务波动与经济景气水平--微观到宏观的交互影响与经验证据[J].经济与管理研究,2018,39(8):42-52.doi:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2018.08.004.LI CH,ZHAO D W,MA Y Q.Financial fluctuation and economic prosperity level of enterprises:Interaction and empirical evidence from micro to macro[J].Economic and Management Research,2018,39(8):42-52.doi:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2018.08.004.
[16]彭丁.企业偿债能力综合评价模型的构建与拓展[J].会计之友,2019(6):116-119.PENG D.Construction and development of comprehensive evaluation model of enterprise's debt solvency[J].Friends of Accounting,2019(6):116-119.
[17]和国忠.资本结构对企业盈利能力及偿债能力影响研究--以云南上市公司为例[J].会计之友,2019(3):67-70.HE G Z.A study on the impact of capital structure on corporate profitability and debt solvency:A case study of Yunnan listed companies[J].Friends of Accountants,2019(3):67-70.
[18]陶磊.中国少数民族地区金融排斥研究[D].成都:西南财经大学,2013.TAO L.Study on financial exclusion in minority areas of China[D].Chengdu:Southwest University of Finance and Economics,2013.
[19]王定祥,田庆刚,李伶俐,王小华.贫困型农户信贷需求与信贷行为实证研究[J].金融研究,2011(5):124-138.WANG D X,TIAN Q G,LI L L,WANG X H.Empirical study on credit demand and credit behavior of poor farmers[J].Financial Research,2011(5):124-138.
[20]程恩江,刘西川.小额信贷缓解农户正规信贷配给了吗--来自三个非政府小额信贷项目区的经验证据[J].金融研究,2010(12):190-206.doi:10.1360/972010-1084.CHENG EN J,LIU X CH.Does microfinance alleviate farmers'formal credit rationing?-Empirical evidence from three non-governmental microfinance project areas[J].Financial Research,2010(12):190-206.doi:10.1360/972010-1084.
[21]周宗安.农户信贷需求的调查与评析:以山东省为例[J].金融研究,2010(2):195-206.ZHOU Z A.Investigation and evaluation of farmers'credit demand:A case study of Shandong province[J].Financial Research,2010(2):195-206.
[22]黄祖辉,刘西川,程恩江.贫困地区农户正规信贷市场低参与程度的经验解释[J].经济研究,2009,44(4):116-128.HUANG Z H,LIU X C,CHENG E J.Empirical explanation of low participation in the regular credit market of farmers in poverty-stricken Areas[J].Economic Research,2009,44(4):116-128.