多尺度环境空气质量预报业务产品测试研究
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摘要
为了探讨NAQPMS数值模式预报产品及其他预报业务所需产品在国家-区域-城市不同尺度单位的有效使用率、重污染过程中的作用,以及不同地区(城市)预报业务需求及作业产品需求偏差,选取17家单位进行测试研究。分析数据显示:15类参与研究产品均为各省市监测中心空气质量日常预报业务的开展作出了重要贡献,NAQPMS数值预报产品准确率最高可达到84.72%,省会城市准确率略低,总体平均可达50.21%,重污染过程的平均捕捉准确率为52.33%;研究测试产品在各尺度的获取时间均可控制在2.5 h左右。研究结果表明,指导产品能基本反映污染物形成、发展及变化趋势,明确不同地区城市预报业务需求及产品偏差,在PM_(2.5)和O_3预报准确率和重污染过程捕捉预报结果偏低等方面有待加强。
In order to investigate the effective utilization and function of NAQPMS numerical forecast products and other products needed in forecasting daily work under the state, regional and city scale, and the forecast demands in different area(city) and operation demand deviation, 17 units were used for testing. Data analysis showed that 15 types of products made an important contribution for the air quality forecast in various provinces and cities monitoring Centre. The highest accuracy rate of NAQPMS numerical forecast products reached 84.72%, the accurate rate of provincial capital cities was slightly lower, which was up to 50.21% on average, the average acquisition accuracy rate was 52.33% during the process of heavy pollution. The acquisition time of study products could be controlled around 2.5 hours in each scale. The results showed that the guidance products could basically reflect the formation, development and change trend of pollutants, strengthen the daily-forecast demand and product deviation in different areas, which need to be strengthened in the prediction accuracy of PM_(2.5) and O_3 and the low prediction result of heavy pollution process.
In order to investigate the effective utilization and function of NAQPMS numerical forecast products and other products needed in forecasting daily work under the state, regional and city scale, and the forecast demands in different area(city) and operation demand deviation, 17 units were used for testing. Data analysis showed that 15 types of products made an important contribution for the air quality forecast in various provinces and cities monitoring Centre. The highest accuracy rate of NAQPMS numerical forecast products reached 84.72%, the accurate rate of provincial capital cities was slightly lower, which was up to 50.21% on average, the average acquisition accuracy rate was 52.33% during the process of heavy pollution. The acquisition time of study products could be controlled around 2.5 hours in each scale. The results showed that the guidance products could basically reflect the formation, development and change trend of pollutants, strengthen the daily-forecast demand and product deviation in different areas, which need to be strengthened in the prediction accuracy of PM_(2.5) and O_3 and the low prediction result of heavy pollution process.
引文
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[4] 胡鸣,赵倩彪,伏晴艳.上海环境空气质量预报考核评分方法研究和应用[J].中国环境监测,2015,31(4):54-57.HU Ming,ZHAO Qianbiao,FU Qingyan.Study on the Method of Environmental Air Quality Forecast Assessment Score and Application in Shanghai[J].Environment Monitoring in China,2015,31(4):54-57.
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[7] TODD E C,MICHAEL W M.Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models[J].Journal of Econometrics,2001,11(105):85-110.
[8] 万本太,康晓风,张建辉,等.基于颗粒物浓度的沙尘天气分级标准研究[J].中国环境监测,2004,20(3):8-11.WAN Bentai,KANG Xiaofeng,ZHANG Jianhui,et al.Research on Classification of Dust and Sand Storm Basic on Particular Concentration[J].Environmental Monitoring in China,2004,20(3):8-11.