大连“11.28”翻船事故风浪分析
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摘要
利用自动气象站资料、常规气象观测资料、NCEP全球再分析资料及WAVEWATCH III模式预报资等料对2012年11月28日大连翻船事故的大风大浪实况、事故成因及演变情况进行分析。结果表明:大连此次翻船事故高空的强冷空气促使冷涡加强,西部大陆高压和蒙古气旋不断加强东移,东南部海上高压稳定少动,蒙古气旋底前部与海上高压顶后部梯度加大,梯度密集区正好位于渤海海峡,造成黄海和渤海偏西大风;低层辐散和中层辐合的垂直结构加强了低层以下的上下扰动,构成南北垂直环流,中层以下动力强迫下沉气流将北侧中层的动量下传至辽东半岛南部地面及黄海、渤海海面,使其不断获得动能,有利于偏西大风的加强;西南向岸大风有利于浪高增长,偏西大风及与其同时增长的大浪是大连地区此次翻船事故的主要原因。
Based on the meteorological data from weather stations and the NCEP reanalysis data as well as prediction data from a WAVEWATCH III model,strong wind and wave,forming reason and evolution of a shipwreck accident on November 28,2012 in Dalian were analyzed. The results showthat upper-level strong cold air makes cold vortex strengthened,and western continental high pressure and Mongolian cyclone become strong and move eastward. High pressure over the sea surface in the southeast stagnates. It increases for pressure gradient in the front bottom of Mongolian cyclone and the rear top of high pressure over the sea. The intensive region of pressure gradient is located in the Bohai strait,which leads to strong westerly wind over the Bohai Sea and the YellowSea. Low-level divergence and mid-level convergence promote the vertical disturbance belowthe low-level and forms N-S vertical circulation. Downward flowbelowthe mid-level forces mid-level momentum in the north side to surface in the south of Liaodong Peninsula and sea surface of the Bohai Sea and the YellowSea. This pattern strengthens westerly wind. Southwestward onshore wind contributes to the increase of wave height. Strong westerly wind and simultaneous increased wave height lead to the shipwreck accident.
Based on the meteorological data from weather stations and the NCEP reanalysis data as well as prediction data from a WAVEWATCH III model,strong wind and wave,forming reason and evolution of a shipwreck accident on November 28,2012 in Dalian were analyzed. The results showthat upper-level strong cold air makes cold vortex strengthened,and western continental high pressure and Mongolian cyclone become strong and move eastward. High pressure over the sea surface in the southeast stagnates. It increases for pressure gradient in the front bottom of Mongolian cyclone and the rear top of high pressure over the sea. The intensive region of pressure gradient is located in the Bohai strait,which leads to strong westerly wind over the Bohai Sea and the YellowSea. Low-level divergence and mid-level convergence promote the vertical disturbance belowthe low-level and forms N-S vertical circulation. Downward flowbelowthe mid-level forces mid-level momentum in the north side to surface in the south of Liaodong Peninsula and sea surface of the Bohai Sea and the YellowSea. This pattern strengthens westerly wind. Southwestward onshore wind contributes to the increase of wave height. Strong westerly wind and simultaneous increased wave height lead to the shipwreck accident.
引文
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[2]焦黎鹰.山东“大舜”号轮船发生特大海难事故[M]//中华人民共和国年鉴编辑部.中华人民共和国年鉴.北京:中华人民共和国年鉴社,2000:6705.
[3]龚育之.11月24日山东“大舜”号轮船海上遇难[M]//中国二十世纪通鉴编辑委员会.中国二十世纪通鉴.北京:线装书局,1981-2000:1049-1050.
[4]汪鹏,穆海林,梁二芳,等.大连区域海陆风环流的数值模拟[J].气象与环境学报,2009,25(2):16-22.
[5]杨晓君,何金海,吕江津,等.对一次温带气旋引发渤海风暴潮过程的数值模拟[J].气象与环境学报,2010,26(4):61-65.
[6]吴曼丽,陈宇,王瀛,等.黄渤海北部沿海大风时空变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2012,28(6):65-71.
[7]辛宝恒.黄渤海大风概论[M].北京:气象出版社,1991:192.
[8]吴庆丽,尹福杰,陈敏,等.“一一·二四”海难渤海风场的数值模拟[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(1):85-90.
[9]黄少军,薛波,石磊,等.渤海海峡客滚船海难事故与大风事件关系分析[J].气象与环境学报,2006,22(3):30-32.
[10]马卫军,周建军,荣毅.2002年秋东海海域三次大风天气过程分析[J].海洋预报,2005,22(1):99-104.
[11]赵琳娜,赵思雄.引发北方沙尘暴天气快速发展气旋的数值模拟研究[J].气候与环境研究,2004,9(1):116-126.
[12]张薇,高山,訚忠辉,等.渤海灾害性海浪特征分析[J].海洋预报,2012,29(5):73-77.
[13]Komen G J,Cavaleri M,Donelan M,et al.Dynamics and modeling of ocean waves[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,1994.
[14]郑崇伟,张霞.基于WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ模式的近10年南海波候统计分析[J].气象与减灾研究,2011,34(1):48-55.
[15]李明悝,侯一筠.利用Quik SCAT/NCEP混合风场及WAVEWATCH模拟东中国海风浪场[J].海洋科学,2005,29(6):9-12.
[16]齐义泉,朱伯承,施平,等.WWATCH模式模拟南海海浪场的结果分析[J].海洋学报(中文版),2003,25(4):1-9.
[17]周良明,吴伦宇,郭佩芳,等.应用WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ模式对南海的波浪场进行数值计算、统计分析和研究[J].热带海洋学报,2007,26(5):1-8.
[18]梁军,张胜军,朱晶,等.黄、渤海大风的次天气尺度环流特征及其应用[J].高原气象,2012,31(4):1032-1041.
[19]李燕,黄振.对“麦莎”路径及造成黄渤海域大风浪的数值模拟[J].气象科技,2007,35(2):175-179.