蠕滑型稀土边坡位移-时间滑坡预警模型
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摘要
针对离子型稀土边坡滑坡研究的现状和位移时间序列法预警发展情况进行了研究,指出离子型稀土矿滑坡预警的重要性,搭建了离子型稀土矿位移-时间滑坡预警模型的系统框架。用安远西坑稀土矿作为实例,研究了蠕滑型稀土边坡累积位移/速度/加速度-时间变化规律。研究表明离子型稀土边坡滑坡变形存在明显的三阶段过程,变形初始阶段的速度在0.15～0.3 mm/h,等速变形阶段的速度虽有波动但维持在-0.15 mm/h～0.15 mm/h,进入加速变形阶段时的速度和加速度是初始变形阶段的3～10倍甚至更高,速度和加速度变化趋势基本相同,但速度变化表现要滞后于加速度。因此可将速度和加速度作为离子型稀土边坡滑坡预警指标,为离子型稀土矿滑坡预警提供参考。
This paper discusses the research situation of ion-type rare earth mine slope landslide and its displacement time series method warning development, points out the importance of the landslide warning of ionic type rare-earth ore, and sets up system framework of the displacement-time landslide early warning model. The cumulative displacement/velocity/acceleration-time variations of the creep ion-type rare earth mine slope were studied by using Anyuan Xikeng ion-type rare earth mine as an example. The study shows that there are obviously three stages in the process of ion-type rare earth mine slope landslide deformation: initial stage with deformation velocity of 0.15 to 0.3 mm/h, uniform deformation stage with velocity of-0.15 to 0.15 mm/h and accelerating deformation stage with velocity of 3 to 10 times than the initial deformation stage or more. The velocity and acceleration have same change trend, but the speed changes lag behind the acceleration performance. Therefore, the velocity and acceleration can be used as an early warning indicator for the ion-type rare earth mine slope.
This paper discusses the research situation of ion-type rare earth mine slope landslide and its displacement time series method warning development, points out the importance of the landslide warning of ionic type rare-earth ore, and sets up system framework of the displacement-time landslide early warning model. The cumulative displacement/velocity/acceleration-time variations of the creep ion-type rare earth mine slope were studied by using Anyuan Xikeng ion-type rare earth mine as an example. The study shows that there are obviously three stages in the process of ion-type rare earth mine slope landslide deformation: initial stage with deformation velocity of 0.15 to 0.3 mm/h, uniform deformation stage with velocity of-0.15 to 0.15 mm/h and accelerating deformation stage with velocity of 3 to 10 times than the initial deformation stage or more. The velocity and acceleration have same change trend, but the speed changes lag behind the acceleration performance. Therefore, the velocity and acceleration can be used as an early warning indicator for the ion-type rare earth mine slope.
引文
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[11] 刘勇,余宏明,刘烽博,秦志萌.滑坡位移非线性时间序列预测模型研究[J].地质科技情报,2016(5):203-207.Liu Y,Yu H M,Liu F B,Qin Z M.Landslide displacement nonlinear time series prediction model[J].Geol Sci Technol Inf,2016(5):203-207.
[12] 孟蒙,陈智强,黄达,曾彬,陈赐金.基于H-P滤波法、ARIMA和VAR模型的三峡库区滑坡位移综合预测[J].岩土力学,2016(s2):552-560.Meng,Chen Z Q,Huang D,Zeng B,Chen C J.Displacement prediction of landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area based on H-P filter,ARIMA and VAR models[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2016(s2):552-560.
[13] 徐峰,汪洋,杜娟,叶疆.基于时间序列分析的滑坡位移预测模型研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2011,30(4):746-751.Xu F,Wan Y,Du J,Ye J.Study of displacement prediction model of landslide based on time series analysis[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2011,30(4):746-751.
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[15] 李聪,朱杰兵,汪斌,蒋昱州,刘小红,曾平.滑坡不同变形阶段演化规律与变形速率预警判据研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2016,35(7):1407-1414.Li C,Zhu J B,Wang B,Jiang Y Z,Liu X H,Zeng P.Critical deformation velocity of landslides in different deformation phases[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2016,35(7):1407-1414.
[16] 许强,曾裕平.具有蠕变特点滑坡的加速度变化特征及临滑预警指标研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(6):1099-1106.Xu Q,Zeng Y P.Reasearch on acceleration variation characteristics of creep landslide and early-warning prediction indicator of critical sliding[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(6):1099-1106.
[17] 罗文强,李飞翱,刘小珊,黄丽.多元时间序列分析的滑坡演化阶段划分[J].地球科学,2016,41(4):711-717.Luo W Q,Li F A,Liu X S,Huang L.Volution stage division of landslide based on analysis of multivariate time series[J].Earth Science,2016,41(4):711-717.
[18] 董秀军,许强,唐川,杨帆.滑坡位移-时间曲线特征的物理模拟试验研究[J].工程地质学报,2015,23(3):401-407.Dong X J,Xu Q,Tang C,Yang F.Characteristics of landslide displacement-time curve by physical simulation experiment[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2015,23(3):401-407.
[2] 李永绣,张玲,周新木.南方离子型稀土的资源和环境保护性开采模式[J].稀土,2010,31(2):80-85.Li Y X,Zhang L,Zhou X M.Resource and environment protected exploitation model for ion-type rare earth deposit in southern of China[J].Chinese Rare Earths,2010,31(2):80-85.
[3] 饶运章,张永胜,饶睿,王丹,王柳.离子型稀土原地浸矿边坡稳定影响因素敏感性分析[J].矿业研究与开发,2015(9):60-63.Rao Y Z,Zhang Y S,Rao R,Wang D,Wang L.Sensitivity analysis on the influence factors of slope stability for ion-absorbed fare earth ore by in-situ leaching[J].Mining Research and Development,2015,35(9):60-63.
[4] 饶睿,李明才,张树标,饶运章,钟健民.离子型稀土原地浸矿采场滑坡特征及防控试验研究[J].稀土,2016,(6):26-31.Rao R,Li C M,Zhang S B,Rao Y Z,Zhong J M.Experimental study on landslide features and countermeasures of in-situ leaching stope of ion-type rare earth mines[J].Chinese Rare Earths,2016,(6):26-31
[5] 胡世丽,洪本根,罗嗣海,王观石,王小玲.裸脚式稀土矿山原地浸矿的边坡稳定性分析[J].工程地质学报,2017,25(1):110-116.Hu S L,Hong B G,Luo S H,Wang G S,Wang X L.Effect of in-situ leaching for rare earth mining to slope stability[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2017,25(1):110-116.
[6] 王观石,罗嗣海,胡世丽,洪本根,邓旭.裸脚式稀土矿山原地浸矿渗流过程及边坡变形[J].稀土,2017(3):35-46.Wang G S,Luo S H,Hu S L,Hong B G,Deng X.Seepage process and slope deformation of barefoot type rare earth mine in-situ leaching[J].Chinese Rare Earths,2017(3):35-46.
[7] 饶运章,张学焱,李雪珍,黄永刚,张永胜.滑坡概率在边坡稳定性分析中的应用[J].灾害学,2016(1):7-10,16.Rao Y Z,Zhang X Y,Li X Z,Li X Z,Zhang Y S.Probability of landslide in the application of slope stability analysis[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2016(1):7-10,16.
[8] 王晓军,李永欣,黄广黎,邓书强,肖伟晶,廖声银.浸矿过程离子型稀土矿孔隙结构演化规律研究[J].中国稀土学报,2017,35(4):528-536.Wang X J,Li Y X,Huang G L,Deng S Q,Xiao W J,Liao S Y.Changes of pore structure in leaching ion-adsorption type rare earth ore[J].Journal of the Chinese Society of Rare Earth,2017,35(4):528-536.
[9] 罗嗣海,袁磊,王观石,胡世丽,王小玲.浸矿对离子型稀土矿强度影响的试验研究[J].有色金属科学与工程,2013,4(3):58-61.Luo S H,Yuanl,Wang G S,Hu S L,Wang X L.The effect of leaching on the strength of ion-adsorption rare-earth ore[J].Nonferrous Metals Science and Engineering,2013,4(3):58-61.
[10] 贺可强,陈为公,张朋.蠕滑型边坡动态稳定性系数实时监测及其位移预警判据研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2016,35(7):1377-1385.He K Q,Chen W G,Zhang P.Real-time monitoring of dynamic stability coefficient and displacement criterion of the creep slope[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2016,35(7):1377-1385.
[11] 刘勇,余宏明,刘烽博,秦志萌.滑坡位移非线性时间序列预测模型研究[J].地质科技情报,2016(5):203-207.Liu Y,Yu H M,Liu F B,Qin Z M.Landslide displacement nonlinear time series prediction model[J].Geol Sci Technol Inf,2016(5):203-207.
[12] 孟蒙,陈智强,黄达,曾彬,陈赐金.基于H-P滤波法、ARIMA和VAR模型的三峡库区滑坡位移综合预测[J].岩土力学,2016(s2):552-560.Meng,Chen Z Q,Huang D,Zeng B,Chen C J.Displacement prediction of landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area based on H-P filter,ARIMA and VAR models[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2016(s2):552-560.
[13] 徐峰,汪洋,杜娟,叶疆.基于时间序列分析的滑坡位移预测模型研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2011,30(4):746-751.Xu F,Wan Y,Du J,Ye J.Study of displacement prediction model of landslide based on time series analysis[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2011,30(4):746-751.
[14] Barla M,Antolini F.An integrated methodology for landslides’ early warning systems[J].Landslides,2016,13(2):215-228.
[15] 李聪,朱杰兵,汪斌,蒋昱州,刘小红,曾平.滑坡不同变形阶段演化规律与变形速率预警判据研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2016,35(7):1407-1414.Li C,Zhu J B,Wang B,Jiang Y Z,Liu X H,Zeng P.Critical deformation velocity of landslides in different deformation phases[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2016,35(7):1407-1414.
[16] 许强,曾裕平.具有蠕变特点滑坡的加速度变化特征及临滑预警指标研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(6):1099-1106.Xu Q,Zeng Y P.Reasearch on acceleration variation characteristics of creep landslide and early-warning prediction indicator of critical sliding[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(6):1099-1106.
[17] 罗文强,李飞翱,刘小珊,黄丽.多元时间序列分析的滑坡演化阶段划分[J].地球科学,2016,41(4):711-717.Luo W Q,Li F A,Liu X S,Huang L.Volution stage division of landslide based on analysis of multivariate time series[J].Earth Science,2016,41(4):711-717.
[18] 董秀军,许强,唐川,杨帆.滑坡位移-时间曲线特征的物理模拟试验研究[J].工程地质学报,2015,23(3):401-407.Dong X J,Xu Q,Tang C,Yang F.Characteristics of landslide displacement-time curve by physical simulation experiment[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2015,23(3):401-407.