基于多因素模式识别的急倾斜特厚煤层冲击地压危险性预测
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摘要
为了预测急倾斜特厚煤层不同区域的冲击地压危险程度,以乌东煤矿南采区为研究对象,以地质动力区划方法为依托,分析了冲击地压的主要诱发因素。地质动力区划方法确定了断裂活动特征与井田构造形式,在分析了急倾斜特厚煤层原始应力的基础上,确定了乌东煤矿南采区冲击地压主要发生在高应力区和应力梯度区。在此基础上,提出了急倾斜特厚煤层冲击地压危险性的多因素模式识别预测方法,定量分析了乌东煤矿冲击地压各影响因素的权重,并建立了相应的概率预测模型,最终划分了乌东煤矿不同区域冲击地压危险性等级。应用综合指数法与多因素模式识别方法的预测结果进行了对比分析,结果表明多因素模式识别方法在急倾斜特厚煤层的冲击危险性预测中取得了较好的效果。
In order to predict the rockburst risk in steep-inclined and extremely thick coal seams, the main inducing factors of rockburst in the southern mining area of Wudong coal mine are investigated by adopting the geo-dynamic division method. This method is adopted to determine the characteristics of fault developments and well field structures. Furthermore, based on the in-situ stress of steep-inclined and extremely thick coal seam, it is found that the rockburst in southern mining area of Wudong coal mine mainly occurs in areas with high stress and stress gradient. As a result, the multi-factor pattern recognition method for predicting rockburst risk is put forward, as well as the corresponding probabilistic prediction model. The weight of each affecting factor of rockburst in Wudong coal mine is quantitatively analyzed. Finally the rockburst-risk level of different regions in Wudong coal mine are determined. The prediction results of the comprehensive index method are compared with the prediction outcomes of the multi-factor pattern recognition method. Results show that the multi-factor pattern recognition method have good performance in predicting the rockburst risk of steep-inclined and extremely thick coal seams.
In order to predict the rockburst risk in steep-inclined and extremely thick coal seams, the main inducing factors of rockburst in the southern mining area of Wudong coal mine are investigated by adopting the geo-dynamic division method. This method is adopted to determine the characteristics of fault developments and well field structures. Furthermore, based on the in-situ stress of steep-inclined and extremely thick coal seam, it is found that the rockburst in southern mining area of Wudong coal mine mainly occurs in areas with high stress and stress gradient. As a result, the multi-factor pattern recognition method for predicting rockburst risk is put forward, as well as the corresponding probabilistic prediction model. The weight of each affecting factor of rockburst in Wudong coal mine is quantitatively analyzed. Finally the rockburst-risk level of different regions in Wudong coal mine are determined. The prediction results of the comprehensive index method are compared with the prediction outcomes of the multi-factor pattern recognition method. Results show that the multi-factor pattern recognition method have good performance in predicting the rockburst risk of steep-inclined and extremely thick coal seams.
引文
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[14]李洪,戴仁竹,蒋金泉.基于最大Lyapunov指数的冲击地压预测模型[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2006,23(2):215-219.LI Hong,DAI Renzhu,JIANG Jinquan.Predicting model of rock burst based on lyapunov index[J].Journal of Mining&Safety Engineering,2006,23(2):215-219.
[15]张宏伟,荣海,陈建强,等.基于地质动力区划的近直立特厚煤层冲击地压危险性评价[J].煤炭学报,2015,40(12):2755-2762.ZHANG Hongwei,RONG Hai,CHEN Jianqiang,et al.Risk assessment of rockburst based on geo-dynamic division in suberect and extremely thick coal seam[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2015,40(12):2755-2762.
[16]张宏伟,荣海,陈建强,等.近直立特厚煤层冲击地压的地质动力条件评价[J].中国矿业大学学报,2015,44(6):1053-1060.ZHANG Hongwei,RONG Hai,CHEN Jianqiang,et al.Geo-dynamic condition evaluation method for rockburst in suberect and extremely thick coal seam[J].Journal of China University of Mining&Technology,2015,44(6):1053-1060.
[17]中华人民共和国建设部.岩土工程勘察规范:GB 50021—2001[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2001.
[18]张宏伟,朱峰,韩军,等.冲击地压的地质动力条件与监测预测方法[J].煤炭学报,2016,41(3):545-551.ZHANG Hongwei,ZHU Feng,HAN Jun,et al.Geological dynamic conditions and forecast technology for rock bursts[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2016,41(3):545-551.
[19]刘旭东,孙秉成,荣海.乌东矿区地质断裂构造对冲击地压的影响[J].内蒙古煤炭经济,2015(6):205-207.LIU Xudong,SUN Bingcheng,RONG Hai.Effect of geological fault structure on rockburst in Wudong mining area[J].Inner Mongolia Coal Economy,2015(6):205-207.
[20]宋和平,沈军,向志勇,等.乌鲁木齐市活动断层探测与地震危险性评价[M].北京:地震出版社,2009:198-240.
[21]刘旭东,孙秉成.乌东煤矿南区近直立特厚煤层冲击地压致灾因素[J].内蒙古煤炭经济,2015(9):120-122.LIU Xudong,SUN Bingcheng.Inducing factors of rockburst for suberect and extremely thick coal seam in southern mining area of Wudong coal mine[J].Inner Mongolia Coal Economy,2015(9):120-122.
[22]荣海.乌东煤矿冲击地压地质动力条件与煤岩动力系统研究[D].阜新:辽宁工程技术大学,2016.
[23]吕进国,潘立.微震预警冲击地压的时间序列方法[J].煤炭学报,2010,35(12):2002-2005.LYU Jinguo,PAN Li.Microseismic predicting coal bump by time series method[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2010,35(12):2002-2005.
[24]赵毅鑫,姜耀东,王涛,等.“两硬”条件下冲击地压微震信号特征及前兆识别[J].煤炭学报,2012,37(12):1960-1966.ZHAO Yixin,JIANG Yaodong,WANG Tao,et al.Features of microseismic events and precursors of rock burst in underground coal mining with hard roof[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2012,37(12):1960-1966.
[25]兰天伟,苏广福,韩军,等.地质动力区划预测煤与瓦斯突出[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(3):46-50.LAN Tianwei,SU Guangfu,HAN Jun,et al.Prediction of coal and gas outburst based on geo-dynamic division[J].China Safety Science Journal,2010,20(3):46-50.
[26]韩军,张宏伟.地质动力区划中断裂活动性的模糊综合评判[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2007,18(2):101-105.HAN Jun,ZHANG Hongwei.Fuzzy integrated estimation of fault activity in geology dynamic zoning[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2007,18(2):101-105.
[27]兰天伟,张宏伟,李胜,等.矿井冲击地压危险性预测的多因素模式识别[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(3):33-38.LAN Tianwei,ZHANG Hongwei,LI Sheng,et al.Multi-factor pattern recognition method for predicting mine rock burst risk[J].China Safety Science Journal,2013,23(3):33-38.
[28]王志辉.孙村矿冲击地压区域预测研究[D].阜新:辽宁工程技术大学,2006.
[2]窦林名,何学秋.冲击矿压防治理论与技术[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2001:7-10,12.
[3]章梦涛,宋维源,潘一山.煤层注水预防冲击地压的研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(10):69-72.ZHANG Mengtao,SONG Weiyuan,PAN Yishan.Study on water pouring into coal seam to prevent rockburst[J].China Safety Science Journal,2003,13(10):69-72.
[4]唐宝庆,曹平.预测预防岩爆的探讨[J].山东科技大学学报(自然科学版),2001,20(1):71-73.TANG Baoqing,CAO Ping.Discussion on forecasting and prevention of rockburst[J].Journal of Shandong University of Science and Technology(Natural Science),2001,20(1):71-73.
[5]潘一山,徐连满,李国臻,等.煤矿深井动力灾害电荷辐射特征及应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014,33(8):1619-1625.PAN Yishan,XU Lianman,LI Guozhen,et al.Characteristics of charge radiation of dynamic disasters in deep coal mine[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2014,33(8):1619-1625.
[6]姜福兴,刘懿,杨伟利,等.郓城煤矿冲击地压与载荷三带关系研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2014,34(3):405-410.JIANG Fuxing,LIU Yi,YANG Weili,et al.Relationship between rock burst and the three zone structure loading model in Yuncheng coal mine[J].Journal of Mining&Safety Engineering,2014,34(3):405-410.
[7]潘俊锋,王书文,刘少虹,等.基于集中静载荷探测的冲击地压危险性预评价[J].岩土工程学报,2014,36(7):1227-1234.PAN Junfeng,WANG Shuwen,LIU Shaohong,et al.Pre-evaluation of burst hazards based on concentrated static load detection[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2014,36(7):1227-1234.
[8]张志镇,高峰,许爱斌,等.冲击地压危险性的集对分析评价模型[J].中国矿业大学学报,2011,40(3):379-384.ZHANG Zhizhen,GAO Feng,XU Aibin,et al.Model for estimating rockburst risk in a coal mine based on set pair analysis[J].Journal of China University of Mining&Technology,2011,40(3):379-384.
[9]金佩剑,王恩元,刘晓斐,等.冲击地压危险性综合评价的突变级数法研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2013,30(2):256-261.JIN Peijian,WANG Enyuan,LIU Xiaofei,et al.Catastrophe progression method on comprehensive evaluation of rock burst[J].Journal of Mining&Safety Engineering,2013,30(2):256-261.
[10]王桂峰,窦林名,李振雷,等.冲击矿压空间孕育机制及其微震特征分析[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2014,31(1):41-48.WANG Guifeng,DOU Linming,LI Zhenlei,et al.Space breeding mechanism of rock burst and its microseismic characteristics[J].Journal of Mining&Safety Engineering,2014,31(1):41-48.
[11]朱志洁,张宏伟.基于GA-ELM的冲击地压危险性预测研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(8):46-51.ZHU Zhijie,ZHANG Hongwei.Study on hazard prediction of rock burst based on GA-ELM[J].Journal of China University of Mining&Technology,2014,10(8):46-51.
[12]徐连满,李祁,潘一山,等.钻杆扭矩法预测冲击地压的研究[J].工程力学,2014,31(11):251-256.XU Lianman,LI Qi,PAN Yishan,et al.Study on forecasting rockburst of the drill pipe torque method[J].Engineering Mechanics,2014,31(11):251-256.
[13]纪洪广,穆楠楠,张月征.冲击地压事件AE与压力耦合前兆特征分析[J].煤炭学报,2013,38(增刊1):1-5.JI Hongguang,MU Nannan,ZHANG Yuezheng.Analysis on precursory characteristics of coupled acoustic emission and pressure for rockburst events[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2013,38(Sup 1):1-5.
[14]李洪,戴仁竹,蒋金泉.基于最大Lyapunov指数的冲击地压预测模型[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2006,23(2):215-219.LI Hong,DAI Renzhu,JIANG Jinquan.Predicting model of rock burst based on lyapunov index[J].Journal of Mining&Safety Engineering,2006,23(2):215-219.
[15]张宏伟,荣海,陈建强,等.基于地质动力区划的近直立特厚煤层冲击地压危险性评价[J].煤炭学报,2015,40(12):2755-2762.ZHANG Hongwei,RONG Hai,CHEN Jianqiang,et al.Risk assessment of rockburst based on geo-dynamic division in suberect and extremely thick coal seam[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2015,40(12):2755-2762.
[16]张宏伟,荣海,陈建强,等.近直立特厚煤层冲击地压的地质动力条件评价[J].中国矿业大学学报,2015,44(6):1053-1060.ZHANG Hongwei,RONG Hai,CHEN Jianqiang,et al.Geo-dynamic condition evaluation method for rockburst in suberect and extremely thick coal seam[J].Journal of China University of Mining&Technology,2015,44(6):1053-1060.
[17]中华人民共和国建设部.岩土工程勘察规范:GB 50021—2001[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2001.
[18]张宏伟,朱峰,韩军,等.冲击地压的地质动力条件与监测预测方法[J].煤炭学报,2016,41(3):545-551.ZHANG Hongwei,ZHU Feng,HAN Jun,et al.Geological dynamic conditions and forecast technology for rock bursts[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2016,41(3):545-551.
[19]刘旭东,孙秉成,荣海.乌东矿区地质断裂构造对冲击地压的影响[J].内蒙古煤炭经济,2015(6):205-207.LIU Xudong,SUN Bingcheng,RONG Hai.Effect of geological fault structure on rockburst in Wudong mining area[J].Inner Mongolia Coal Economy,2015(6):205-207.
[20]宋和平,沈军,向志勇,等.乌鲁木齐市活动断层探测与地震危险性评价[M].北京:地震出版社,2009:198-240.
[21]刘旭东,孙秉成.乌东煤矿南区近直立特厚煤层冲击地压致灾因素[J].内蒙古煤炭经济,2015(9):120-122.LIU Xudong,SUN Bingcheng.Inducing factors of rockburst for suberect and extremely thick coal seam in southern mining area of Wudong coal mine[J].Inner Mongolia Coal Economy,2015(9):120-122.
[22]荣海.乌东煤矿冲击地压地质动力条件与煤岩动力系统研究[D].阜新:辽宁工程技术大学,2016.
[23]吕进国,潘立.微震预警冲击地压的时间序列方法[J].煤炭学报,2010,35(12):2002-2005.LYU Jinguo,PAN Li.Microseismic predicting coal bump by time series method[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2010,35(12):2002-2005.
[24]赵毅鑫,姜耀东,王涛,等.“两硬”条件下冲击地压微震信号特征及前兆识别[J].煤炭学报,2012,37(12):1960-1966.ZHAO Yixin,JIANG Yaodong,WANG Tao,et al.Features of microseismic events and precursors of rock burst in underground coal mining with hard roof[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2012,37(12):1960-1966.
[25]兰天伟,苏广福,韩军,等.地质动力区划预测煤与瓦斯突出[J].中国安全科学学报,2010,20(3):46-50.LAN Tianwei,SU Guangfu,HAN Jun,et al.Prediction of coal and gas outburst based on geo-dynamic division[J].China Safety Science Journal,2010,20(3):46-50.
[26]韩军,张宏伟.地质动力区划中断裂活动性的模糊综合评判[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2007,18(2):101-105.HAN Jun,ZHANG Hongwei.Fuzzy integrated estimation of fault activity in geology dynamic zoning[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2007,18(2):101-105.
[27]兰天伟,张宏伟,李胜,等.矿井冲击地压危险性预测的多因素模式识别[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(3):33-38.LAN Tianwei,ZHANG Hongwei,LI Sheng,et al.Multi-factor pattern recognition method for predicting mine rock burst risk[J].China Safety Science Journal,2013,23(3):33-38.
[28]王志辉.孙村矿冲击地压区域预测研究[D].阜新:辽宁工程技术大学,2006.