评论用户身份差异、品牌强度与电影票房
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摘要
伴随着互联网技术的飞速发展与应用,如何通过网络营销环境质量的提升,促进我国文化产业尤其是影视业健康、稳定发展,是摆在政策制定者与从业者面前的重要研究课题。本文基于第三方影评平台的网络评论数据,构建了一个兼顾多重市场营销要素(网络评分、用户身份差异与品牌效应)的实证模型,探析各要素互动在形塑消费者认知在线评论可信度和后续购买行为过程中扮演的关键角色。本文发现:对于真实性较高的网络评论而言,其分值对电影票房的影响显著强于真实性较低的网络评论,但评论方差对电影票房的影响则显著弱于真实性较低的网络评论;品牌强度负向调节了用户网络评论分值对电影票房的影响,正向调节了用户网络评论方差对电影票房的影响;对于非用户网络评分与方差,品牌强度和其的相互关系与用户网络评分与方差恰恰相反。充分认识线上营销环境中各要素之间的联动关系,是提高消费者购买效率、企业高效调整影视产品与服务的关键。
With the rapid expansion of internet technology in China, managing the online communication environment becomes crucial in understanding how the cultural industry particularly the film industry can develop in a healthy and sustainable way. The paper constructs a novel analytical framework that simultaneously involves the roles of online word of mouth, source identity and brand equity, attempting to explore how the interactional effects of multiple marketing factors can be a significant determinant of online box office sales. The results reveal the following: Frist users' review ratings exerted a significantly higher effect on the number of ticket purchased than did non-users' review ratings, but the variance of users' reviews exerted a significantly lower effect on the number of ticket purchased than did that of non-users' reviews. Further analysis reveals that the brand strength of films negatively moderated the effect of users' online review ratings on the number of ticket purchased but positively moderated the effect of users' online review variance on the number of ticket purchased. Such relationships are opposite for non-users.
With the rapid expansion of internet technology in China, managing the online communication environment becomes crucial in understanding how the cultural industry particularly the film industry can develop in a healthy and sustainable way. The paper constructs a novel analytical framework that simultaneously involves the roles of online word of mouth, source identity and brand equity, attempting to explore how the interactional effects of multiple marketing factors can be a significant determinant of online box office sales. The results reveal the following: Frist users' review ratings exerted a significantly higher effect on the number of ticket purchased than did non-users' review ratings, but the variance of users' reviews exerted a significantly lower effect on the number of ticket purchased than did that of non-users' reviews. Further analysis reveals that the brand strength of films negatively moderated the effect of users' online review ratings on the number of ticket purchased but positively moderated the effect of users' online review variance on the number of ticket purchased. Such relationships are opposite for non-users.
引文
[1]陈燕方,娄策群.在线商品虚假评论形成路径研究[J],现代情报,2015(01).
[2]金立印,王如意,邹德强.消费者对网络评论信息的可信性评价[J],营销科学学报,2008(04).
[3]李雨洁,廖成林、李忆、伏红勇.在线商品评论可信吗--在线商品评论的偏差分析及矫正策略[J],营销科学学报,2013(02).
[4]卢向华,冯越.网络口碑的价值--基于在线餐馆点评的实证研究[J],管理世界,2009(07).
[5]孟美任,丁晟春.虚假商品评论信息发布者行为动机分析[J],情报科学,2013(10).
[6]戎钰.网络水军搅局电影分值,电影好不好看还能信谁?[M],楚天都市报,2013-3-20。
[7]郑春东,韩晴,王寒.网络水军言论如何左右你的购买意愿[J],南开管理评论,2005(01).
[8]郑春东,孙为政,王寒.虚假网络评论对消费者在线搜索与购买决策的影响[J],大连海事大学学报:社会科学版,2014(06).
[9]Anderson E.T.,D.I.Simester.Reviews Without a Purchase:Low Ratings,Loyal Customers,and Deception[J],Journal of Marketing Research,2014,51(3):249-269.
[10]Ashforth,B.,F,Mael.Social Identity Theory and the Organization[J],Academy of Management Review,1989,14,1,20-39.
[11]Banerjee S.,A.Y.K.Chua.A Linguistic Framework to Distinguish between Genuine and Deceptive Online Reviews[M],Proceedings of the International MultiConference of Engineers and Computer Scientists 2014 Vol I,IMECS 2014,March 12~14,2014,Hong Kong.
[12]Chaiken,S.Heuristic versus Systematic Information Processing and the Use of Source versus Message Cues in Persuasion[J],Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1980,39,5,752.
[13]Chiambaretto,P.,C,Gur?u.David by Goliath:What Is Co-Branding and What Is in It for SMEs[J],International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business,2017,31,1,103-22.
[14]Chintagunta,K.,Gopinath,S.,S,Venkataraman.The Effects of Online User Reviews on Movie Box Office Performance:Accounting for Sequential Rollout and Aggregation across Local Markets[J],Marketing Science,2010,29,5,INFORMS,944-57.
[15]Cialdini R.B.,Goldstein N.J.Social Influence:Compliance and Conformity[J],Annual Review of Psychology,2004,55,591-621.
[16]Clemons,K.G.Gao,and L,Hitt.When Online Reviews Meet Hyperdifferentiation:A Study of the Craft Beer Industry[J],Journal of Management Information Systems,2006,23,2.
[17]Dawar,N.,M,Pillutla.Impact of Product-Harm Crises on Brand Equity:The Moderating Role of Consumer Expectations[J],Journal of Marketing Research,2000,37,2,215-26.
[18]Dellarocas C.Strategic Manipulation of Internet Opinion Forums:Implications for Consumers and Firms[J],Management Science,2006,52(10):1577-1593.
[19]Duan,W.,Bin,G.and A,Whinston.Do Online Reviews Matter?-An Empirical Investigation of Panel Data[J],Decision Support Systems,2008,45,4,1007-16.
[20]Elliott,C.and R,Simmons.Determinants of UK Box Office Success:The Impact of Quality Signals[J],Review of Industrial Organization,2008,33,2,93.
[21]Erdem,T.,Swait,J Broniarczyk,S.,Chakravarti,D.,Jean-Noe Kapferer.,Keane,M,,Roberts,J.,Jan-Benedict E M Steenkamp,and F,Zettelmeyer.Brand Equity,Consumer Learning and Choice[J],Marketing Letters,1999,10,3,301-18.
[22]Fetscherin.M.The Main Determinants of Bollywood Movie Box Office Sales[J],Journal of Global Marketing,2010,23,5,461-76.
[23]Forman,C.,Ghose,A.,B,Wiesenfeld.Examining the Relationship between Reviews and Sales:The Role of Reviewer Identity Disclosure in Electronic Markets[J],Information Systems Research,2008,19,3,291-313.
[24]Gefen,D.E-Commerce:The Role of Familiarity and Trust[J],Omega,2000,28,6,725-37.
[25]Gmerek,N.The Determinants of Polish Movies’Box Office Performance in Poland[J],Journal of Marketing and Consumer Behaviour in Emerging Markets,2015,15-35.
[26]Godes,D.and D,Mayzlin.Using Online Conversations to Study Word-of-Mouth Communication[J].,Marketing Science,2004,23,4.
[27]Gopinath,S.,Chintagunta,K.and S,Venkataraman.Blogs,Advertising,and Local-Market Movie Box Office Performance[J],Management Science,2013,59,12,INFORMS,2635-54.
[28]Ho-Dac,Nga N.,Carson,S.and W,Moore.The Effects of Positive and Negative Online Customer Reviews:Do Brand Strength and Category Maturity Matter?[J]Journal of Marketing,2013,77,6,37-53.
[29]Hoeffler,S.,K,Keller.The Marketing Advantages of Strong Brands[J],Journal of Brand Management,2003,10,6,Springer,421-45.
[30]Hu N.,I.Bose,Y.Gao,L.Liu.Manipulation in Digital Word-of-Mouth:A Reality Check for Book Reviews[J],Decision Support System,2011,50:627-635.
[31]Kang Y.S.,Herr P.M.Beauty and the Beholder:Toward an Integrative Model of Communication Source Effects[J],Journal of Consumer Research,2006,33(1),123-130.
[32]Kusumasondjaja,S.,Shanka,T.and C,Marchegiani.Credibility of Online Reviews and Initial Trust:The Roles of Reviewer’s Identity and Review Valence[J],Journal of Vacation Marketing,2012,18,3,185-95.
[33]Levin,M.,Levin,I.,E,Heath.Movie Stars and Authors as Brand Names:Measuring Brand Equity in Experiential Products.[J],Advances in Consumer Research,1997,24,1,175-81.
[34]Martin,J,G.and M I Norton.Choosing to Be Uncertain:Preferences for High Variance Experiences[R],in London Business School Trans-Atlantic Doctoral Conference,2007,MA:Harvard Business School.
[35]Maslowska,E.,Malthouse,E.and S.Bernritter.Too Good to Be True:The Role of Online Reviews’Features in Probability to Buy[J],International Journal of Advertising,2017,36,1,142-63.
[36]Moe,W.,M.Trusov.The Value of Social Dynamics in Online Product Ratings Forums[J],Journal of Marketing Research,2011,48,3,American Marketing Association,444-56.
[37]Nelson,R.,R,Glotfelty.Movie Stars and Box Office Revenues:An Empirical Analysis[J],Journal of Cultural Economics,2012,36,2,141-66.
[38]Pornpitakpan,C.The Persuasiveness of Source Credibility:A Critical Review of Five Decades’Evidence[J],Journal of Applied Social Psychology,2004,34,2,Wiley Online Library,243-81.
[39]Simonson,I.,Huber,J.,,Payne.The Relationship between Prior Brand Knowledge and Information Acquisition Order[J],Journal of Consumer Research,1988.14,4,566-78.
[40]Stiff,J.,P,Mongeau.Persuasive Communication[J],2016,Guilford Publications.
[41]Sun,M.How Does the Variance of Product Ratings Matter?[J],Management Science,2012,58,4,INFORMS,696-707,doi:10.1287/mnsc.1110.1458.
[42]Zhang,X.Q.,C.Dellarocas.The Lord of the Ratings:Is a Movie’s Fate Is Influenced by Reviews?[OL],ICIS 2006 Proceedings,Milwaukee:Association for Information Systems,,117,http://aisel.aisnet.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1238&context=icis2006.
[43]Zhu,F.and X.Q.Zhang.Impact of Online Consumer Reviews on Sales:The Moderating Role of Product and Consumer Characteristics[J],Journal of Marketing,2010,74,2,133-48.
(1)根据Maslowska等(2017)的极值理论,网评分值过高或过低会对消费者购买意图产生额外的影响力,而忽略此等效应(如果存在)将使分析结果产生误差。
[2]金立印,王如意,邹德强.消费者对网络评论信息的可信性评价[J],营销科学学报,2008(04).
[3]李雨洁,廖成林、李忆、伏红勇.在线商品评论可信吗--在线商品评论的偏差分析及矫正策略[J],营销科学学报,2013(02).
[4]卢向华,冯越.网络口碑的价值--基于在线餐馆点评的实证研究[J],管理世界,2009(07).
[5]孟美任,丁晟春.虚假商品评论信息发布者行为动机分析[J],情报科学,2013(10).
[6]戎钰.网络水军搅局电影分值,电影好不好看还能信谁?[M],楚天都市报,2013-3-20。
[7]郑春东,韩晴,王寒.网络水军言论如何左右你的购买意愿[J],南开管理评论,2005(01).
[8]郑春东,孙为政,王寒.虚假网络评论对消费者在线搜索与购买决策的影响[J],大连海事大学学报:社会科学版,2014(06).
[9]Anderson E.T.,D.I.Simester.Reviews Without a Purchase:Low Ratings,Loyal Customers,and Deception[J],Journal of Marketing Research,2014,51(3):249-269.
[10]Ashforth,B.,F,Mael.Social Identity Theory and the Organization[J],Academy of Management Review,1989,14,1,20-39.
[11]Banerjee S.,A.Y.K.Chua.A Linguistic Framework to Distinguish between Genuine and Deceptive Online Reviews[M],Proceedings of the International MultiConference of Engineers and Computer Scientists 2014 Vol I,IMECS 2014,March 12~14,2014,Hong Kong.
[12]Chaiken,S.Heuristic versus Systematic Information Processing and the Use of Source versus Message Cues in Persuasion[J],Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1980,39,5,752.
[13]Chiambaretto,P.,C,Gur?u.David by Goliath:What Is Co-Branding and What Is in It for SMEs[J],International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business,2017,31,1,103-22.
[14]Chintagunta,K.,Gopinath,S.,S,Venkataraman.The Effects of Online User Reviews on Movie Box Office Performance:Accounting for Sequential Rollout and Aggregation across Local Markets[J],Marketing Science,2010,29,5,INFORMS,944-57.
[15]Cialdini R.B.,Goldstein N.J.Social Influence:Compliance and Conformity[J],Annual Review of Psychology,2004,55,591-621.
[16]Clemons,K.G.Gao,and L,Hitt.When Online Reviews Meet Hyperdifferentiation:A Study of the Craft Beer Industry[J],Journal of Management Information Systems,2006,23,2.
[17]Dawar,N.,M,Pillutla.Impact of Product-Harm Crises on Brand Equity:The Moderating Role of Consumer Expectations[J],Journal of Marketing Research,2000,37,2,215-26.
[18]Dellarocas C.Strategic Manipulation of Internet Opinion Forums:Implications for Consumers and Firms[J],Management Science,2006,52(10):1577-1593.
[19]Duan,W.,Bin,G.and A,Whinston.Do Online Reviews Matter?-An Empirical Investigation of Panel Data[J],Decision Support Systems,2008,45,4,1007-16.
[20]Elliott,C.and R,Simmons.Determinants of UK Box Office Success:The Impact of Quality Signals[J],Review of Industrial Organization,2008,33,2,93.
[21]Erdem,T.,Swait,J Broniarczyk,S.,Chakravarti,D.,Jean-Noe Kapferer.,Keane,M,,Roberts,J.,Jan-Benedict E M Steenkamp,and F,Zettelmeyer.Brand Equity,Consumer Learning and Choice[J],Marketing Letters,1999,10,3,301-18.
[22]Fetscherin.M.The Main Determinants of Bollywood Movie Box Office Sales[J],Journal of Global Marketing,2010,23,5,461-76.
[23]Forman,C.,Ghose,A.,B,Wiesenfeld.Examining the Relationship between Reviews and Sales:The Role of Reviewer Identity Disclosure in Electronic Markets[J],Information Systems Research,2008,19,3,291-313.
[24]Gefen,D.E-Commerce:The Role of Familiarity and Trust[J],Omega,2000,28,6,725-37.
[25]Gmerek,N.The Determinants of Polish Movies’Box Office Performance in Poland[J],Journal of Marketing and Consumer Behaviour in Emerging Markets,2015,15-35.
[26]Godes,D.and D,Mayzlin.Using Online Conversations to Study Word-of-Mouth Communication[J].,Marketing Science,2004,23,4.
[27]Gopinath,S.,Chintagunta,K.and S,Venkataraman.Blogs,Advertising,and Local-Market Movie Box Office Performance[J],Management Science,2013,59,12,INFORMS,2635-54.
[28]Ho-Dac,Nga N.,Carson,S.and W,Moore.The Effects of Positive and Negative Online Customer Reviews:Do Brand Strength and Category Maturity Matter?[J]Journal of Marketing,2013,77,6,37-53.
[29]Hoeffler,S.,K,Keller.The Marketing Advantages of Strong Brands[J],Journal of Brand Management,2003,10,6,Springer,421-45.
[30]Hu N.,I.Bose,Y.Gao,L.Liu.Manipulation in Digital Word-of-Mouth:A Reality Check for Book Reviews[J],Decision Support System,2011,50:627-635.
[31]Kang Y.S.,Herr P.M.Beauty and the Beholder:Toward an Integrative Model of Communication Source Effects[J],Journal of Consumer Research,2006,33(1),123-130.
[32]Kusumasondjaja,S.,Shanka,T.and C,Marchegiani.Credibility of Online Reviews and Initial Trust:The Roles of Reviewer’s Identity and Review Valence[J],Journal of Vacation Marketing,2012,18,3,185-95.
[33]Levin,M.,Levin,I.,E,Heath.Movie Stars and Authors as Brand Names:Measuring Brand Equity in Experiential Products.[J],Advances in Consumer Research,1997,24,1,175-81.
[34]Martin,J,G.and M I Norton.Choosing to Be Uncertain:Preferences for High Variance Experiences[R],in London Business School Trans-Atlantic Doctoral Conference,2007,MA:Harvard Business School.
[35]Maslowska,E.,Malthouse,E.and S.Bernritter.Too Good to Be True:The Role of Online Reviews’Features in Probability to Buy[J],International Journal of Advertising,2017,36,1,142-63.
[36]Moe,W.,M.Trusov.The Value of Social Dynamics in Online Product Ratings Forums[J],Journal of Marketing Research,2011,48,3,American Marketing Association,444-56.
[37]Nelson,R.,R,Glotfelty.Movie Stars and Box Office Revenues:An Empirical Analysis[J],Journal of Cultural Economics,2012,36,2,141-66.
[38]Pornpitakpan,C.The Persuasiveness of Source Credibility:A Critical Review of Five Decades’Evidence[J],Journal of Applied Social Psychology,2004,34,2,Wiley Online Library,243-81.
[39]Simonson,I.,Huber,J.,,Payne.The Relationship between Prior Brand Knowledge and Information Acquisition Order[J],Journal of Consumer Research,1988.14,4,566-78.
[40]Stiff,J.,P,Mongeau.Persuasive Communication[J],2016,Guilford Publications.
[41]Sun,M.How Does the Variance of Product Ratings Matter?[J],Management Science,2012,58,4,INFORMS,696-707,doi:10.1287/mnsc.1110.1458.
[42]Zhang,X.Q.,C.Dellarocas.The Lord of the Ratings:Is a Movie’s Fate Is Influenced by Reviews?[OL],ICIS 2006 Proceedings,Milwaukee:Association for Information Systems,,117,http://aisel.aisnet.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1238&context=icis2006.
[43]Zhu,F.and X.Q.Zhang.Impact of Online Consumer Reviews on Sales:The Moderating Role of Product and Consumer Characteristics[J],Journal of Marketing,2010,74,2,133-48.
(1)根据Maslowska等(2017)的极值理论,网评分值过高或过低会对消费者购买意图产生额外的影响力,而忽略此等效应(如果存在)将使分析结果产生误差。