珠三角城市群的经济增长模式及演化特征研究——暨对“粤港澳大湾区”规划的思考
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摘要
21世纪以来,珠三角与港澳之间的"前店后厂"合作模式逐渐淡出,珠三角以往基于廉价土地、劳动力和大规模资本投入的要素推动型经济增长模式也发生巨大变化。从供给侧角度切入,比较分析珠三角及内部各城市的经济增长模式及演化特征,进而结合"粤港澳大湾区"战略,讨论新时代的珠三角城市群空间发展问题。提出珠三角依赖劳动力、土地和资本要素投入的发展路径已经难以为继;在国内外发展和竞争态势快速变化的今天,以及在粤港澳大湾区建设的背景下,珠三角应当正视自身经济发展模式存在的问题,主动谋求经济转型发展,以新的驱动力来推进区域分工合作及空间发展。
Since the 21 st century, the economic collaboration model "Front Shop, Back Factory" between the Pearl River Delta and Hong Kong/Macao has faded out. The economic growth model in the Pearl River Delta, which mainly based on cheap land, labor, and large-scale capital investment, has also undergone tremendous challenges. This article is going to discuss economic growth and evolution in the Pearl River Delta. As response to the Outline Development Plan for the Greater Bay Area, this article also pays attention on the whole region's spatial development. The implication is that the Pearl River Delta today is facing with structural problems of economic growth. It is required to find out a way for economic transformation, as well as a new driving force to promote regional cooperation and development.
Since the 21 st century, the economic collaboration model "Front Shop, Back Factory" between the Pearl River Delta and Hong Kong/Macao has faded out. The economic growth model in the Pearl River Delta, which mainly based on cheap land, labor, and large-scale capital investment, has also undergone tremendous challenges. This article is going to discuss economic growth and evolution in the Pearl River Delta. As response to the Outline Development Plan for the Greater Bay Area, this article also pays attention on the whole region's spatial development. The implication is that the Pearl River Delta today is facing with structural problems of economic growth. It is required to find out a way for economic transformation, as well as a new driving force to promote regional cooperation and development.
引文
[1]赵民,唐子来,侯丽.城市发展与经济增长方式转变——理论分析与对策建议[J].城市规划汇刊,2000(1):23-29.ZHAO Min, TANG Zilai, HOU Li. Urban development and economic transformation:theoretical analysis and policy suggestion[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2000(1):23-29.
[2]刘云亚,韩文超,闫永涛,等.资本、权力与空间的生产——珠三角战略地区发展路径及展望[J].城市规划学刊,2016(5):46-53.LIU Yunya, HAN Wenchao, YAN Yongtao, et al. Capital, power and production of space:the development paths and prospects of strategic areas in the Pearl River Delta[J]. Urban Planning Forum,2016(5):46-53.
[3]任思儒,李郇,陈婷婷.改革开放以来粤港澳经济关系的回顾与展望[J].国际城市规划,2017, 32(3):21-27.REN Siru, LI Xun, CHEN Tingting. Retrospect and prospect of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao's economic relations since reform and opening up[J].Urban Planning International, 2017, 32(3):21-27.
[4]李明月,张志鸿,胡竹枝.土地要素对经济增长的贡献研究——基于土地资源与土地资产双重属性的视角[J].城市发展研究,2018, 25(7):61-67.LI Mingyue, ZHNAG Zhihong, HU Zhuzhi. Research on the contribution of land factors to economic growth:from the perspective of dual attributes of landresources and land assets[J]. Urban Development Studies,2018,25(7):61-67.
[5]丰雷,魏丽,蒋妍.论土地要素对中国经济增长的贡献[J].中国土地科学,2008, 22(12):4-10.FENG Lei, WEI Li, JIANG Yan. Study on the contribution of land element to economic growth in China[J]. China Land Science, 2008,22(12):4-10.
[6]叶裕民.全国及各省区市全要素生产率的计算和分析[J].经济学家,2002, 3(3):115-121.YE Yumin. Calculation and analysis of total factor productivity across the country and provinces[J].Economist, 2002, 3(3):115-121.
[7]周春山,罗利佳,史晨怡,等.粤港澳大湾区经济发展时空演变特征及其影响因素[J].热带地理,2017, 37(6):802-813.ZHOU Chunshan, LUO Lijia, SHI Chenyi, et al.Spatio-temporal evolutionary characteristics of the economic development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and its influencing factors[J]. Tropical Geography, 2017, 37(6):802-813.
[8]李建平.粤港澳大湾区协作治理机制的演进与展望[J].规划师,2017, 33(11):53-59.LI Jianping. Evolution and prospect of cooperative governance mechanism in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area[J]. Planners, 2017,33(11):53-59.
[9]姚江春,池葆春,刘中毅,等.粤港澳大湾区规划治理与协作策略[J].规划师,2018,34(4):13-19.YAO Jiangchun, CHI Baochun, LIU Zhongyi, et al.Strategies of planning governance and collaboration of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area[J].Planners,2018, 34(4):13-19.
[10]陈旭,赵民.经济增长、城镇化的机制及“新常态”下的转型策略——理论解析与实证推论[J].城市规划,2016, 40(1):9-18.CHEN Xu, ZHAO Min. Mechanisms for economic growth and urbanization, and transformation strategies under the"new normal":theoretical analysis and empirical Inference[J]. City Planning Review, 2016,40(1):9-18.
[11]赖寿华,闫永涛,刘冠男,等.珠三角区域规划回顾、评价及反思[J].城市规划学刊,2015(4):12-19.LAI Shouhua, YAN Yongtao, LIU Guannan, et al. A review, evaluation and reflection of the Pearl River Delta Regional Plan[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2015(4):12-19.
[12]张艺帅,赵民,王启轩,等“场所空间”与“流动空间”双重视角的“大湾区”发展研究——以粤港澳大湾区为例[J].城市规划学刊,2018(4):24-33.ZHANG Yishuai, ZHAO Min, WANG Qixuan, et al.On the development of"Great Bay Area"from the perspective of"space of place"and"space of flow":case study of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay Area[J]. Urban Planning Forum,2018(4):24-33.
(1)摘自《粤港澳大湾区发展规划纲要》。
(2)为了比较历年实际增长率的变化情况,3项数据均以2015年为基准价格。
(3)综合考虑叶裕民、丰雷等学者在运用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数和索洛余值法时选取的指标[5-6],研究采用二、三产业增加值作为经济产出指标,二、三产业从业人员数量作为劳动力要素指标,固定资产存量作为资本要素指标,城市建成区面积作为土地要素指标。其中,二、三产业增加值和固定资产存量按照2000年价格进行统一;由于地级市层面缺乏固定资产投资价格指数,固定资产总额的实际值是以二、三产业增加值的名义值和实际值的比值计算获得的,固定资产存量则是在历年固定资产总额的基础上通过永续盘存法(考虑年折旧率为5%,项目平均建设周期为3年)计算而来。经济产出、劳动力和资本投入数据均来源于历年《广东省统计年鉴》,土地投入数据来源于历年《中国城市建设统计年鉴》,由于部分数据与各城市统计年鉴有较大出入,研究对这些数据进行了一定的筛选和调整,并对数据统一进行了标准化处理。
(4)计量分析结果反映了劳动力、资本、土地要素和全要素生产率(TFP)对经济增长的贡献率,4项因素相加之和为100%。
[2]刘云亚,韩文超,闫永涛,等.资本、权力与空间的生产——珠三角战略地区发展路径及展望[J].城市规划学刊,2016(5):46-53.LIU Yunya, HAN Wenchao, YAN Yongtao, et al. Capital, power and production of space:the development paths and prospects of strategic areas in the Pearl River Delta[J]. Urban Planning Forum,2016(5):46-53.
[3]任思儒,李郇,陈婷婷.改革开放以来粤港澳经济关系的回顾与展望[J].国际城市规划,2017, 32(3):21-27.REN Siru, LI Xun, CHEN Tingting. Retrospect and prospect of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao's economic relations since reform and opening up[J].Urban Planning International, 2017, 32(3):21-27.
[4]李明月,张志鸿,胡竹枝.土地要素对经济增长的贡献研究——基于土地资源与土地资产双重属性的视角[J].城市发展研究,2018, 25(7):61-67.LI Mingyue, ZHNAG Zhihong, HU Zhuzhi. Research on the contribution of land factors to economic growth:from the perspective of dual attributes of landresources and land assets[J]. Urban Development Studies,2018,25(7):61-67.
[5]丰雷,魏丽,蒋妍.论土地要素对中国经济增长的贡献[J].中国土地科学,2008, 22(12):4-10.FENG Lei, WEI Li, JIANG Yan. Study on the contribution of land element to economic growth in China[J]. China Land Science, 2008,22(12):4-10.
[6]叶裕民.全国及各省区市全要素生产率的计算和分析[J].经济学家,2002, 3(3):115-121.YE Yumin. Calculation and analysis of total factor productivity across the country and provinces[J].Economist, 2002, 3(3):115-121.
[7]周春山,罗利佳,史晨怡,等.粤港澳大湾区经济发展时空演变特征及其影响因素[J].热带地理,2017, 37(6):802-813.ZHOU Chunshan, LUO Lijia, SHI Chenyi, et al.Spatio-temporal evolutionary characteristics of the economic development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and its influencing factors[J]. Tropical Geography, 2017, 37(6):802-813.
[8]李建平.粤港澳大湾区协作治理机制的演进与展望[J].规划师,2017, 33(11):53-59.LI Jianping. Evolution and prospect of cooperative governance mechanism in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area[J]. Planners, 2017,33(11):53-59.
[9]姚江春,池葆春,刘中毅,等.粤港澳大湾区规划治理与协作策略[J].规划师,2018,34(4):13-19.YAO Jiangchun, CHI Baochun, LIU Zhongyi, et al.Strategies of planning governance and collaboration of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area[J].Planners,2018, 34(4):13-19.
[10]陈旭,赵民.经济增长、城镇化的机制及“新常态”下的转型策略——理论解析与实证推论[J].城市规划,2016, 40(1):9-18.CHEN Xu, ZHAO Min. Mechanisms for economic growth and urbanization, and transformation strategies under the"new normal":theoretical analysis and empirical Inference[J]. City Planning Review, 2016,40(1):9-18.
[11]赖寿华,闫永涛,刘冠男,等.珠三角区域规划回顾、评价及反思[J].城市规划学刊,2015(4):12-19.LAI Shouhua, YAN Yongtao, LIU Guannan, et al. A review, evaluation and reflection of the Pearl River Delta Regional Plan[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2015(4):12-19.
[12]张艺帅,赵民,王启轩,等“场所空间”与“流动空间”双重视角的“大湾区”发展研究——以粤港澳大湾区为例[J].城市规划学刊,2018(4):24-33.ZHANG Yishuai, ZHAO Min, WANG Qixuan, et al.On the development of"Great Bay Area"from the perspective of"space of place"and"space of flow":case study of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay Area[J]. Urban Planning Forum,2018(4):24-33.
(1)摘自《粤港澳大湾区发展规划纲要》。
(2)为了比较历年实际增长率的变化情况,3项数据均以2015年为基准价格。
(3)综合考虑叶裕民、丰雷等学者在运用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数和索洛余值法时选取的指标[5-6],研究采用二、三产业增加值作为经济产出指标,二、三产业从业人员数量作为劳动力要素指标,固定资产存量作为资本要素指标,城市建成区面积作为土地要素指标。其中,二、三产业增加值和固定资产存量按照2000年价格进行统一;由于地级市层面缺乏固定资产投资价格指数,固定资产总额的实际值是以二、三产业增加值的名义值和实际值的比值计算获得的,固定资产存量则是在历年固定资产总额的基础上通过永续盘存法(考虑年折旧率为5%,项目平均建设周期为3年)计算而来。经济产出、劳动力和资本投入数据均来源于历年《广东省统计年鉴》,土地投入数据来源于历年《中国城市建设统计年鉴》,由于部分数据与各城市统计年鉴有较大出入,研究对这些数据进行了一定的筛选和调整,并对数据统一进行了标准化处理。
(4)计量分析结果反映了劳动力、资本、土地要素和全要素生产率(TFP)对经济增长的贡献率,4项因素相加之和为100%。