国际能源科技发展动态研判与战略启示
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摘要
当前能源系统正在从化石能源绝对主导向低碳多能融合方向转变。全球能源生产与消费革命正在不断深化,新兴产业与新业态不断发展壮大。主要发达国家在能源转型过程中以科技创新为先导,以体制改革为抓手,致力于解决主体能源向绿色低碳过渡、多能互补耦合利用、终端用能深度电气化、智慧能源网络建设等重大战略问题,构建清洁低碳、安全高效的现代能源体系,抢占能源科技革命和产业变革的战略制高点。能源技术创新处于高度活跃期,新兴能源技术正以前所未有的速度加快迭代,正孕育一批具有重大产业变革前景的颠覆性技术。文章系统梳理了世界主要发达国家和地区的能源科技领域重大发展战略规划,分析了国际重大科技前沿进展与重要成果,以准确把握世界能源技术变革和演进方向,进而为我国能源科技领域的优先谋划和布局提供重要参考。
Currently, the global energy system is shifting from the absolute dominance of fossil energy to the transition of lowcarbon and multi-energy. The global energy production and consumption revolution is constantly deepening, and emerging industries and new formats continue to grow and develop. In the process of energy transformation, major developed countries take science and technology innovation as the forerunner and take system reform as the starting point. They are committed to solving major strategic problems, such as green energy and low carbon transition, multi-energy complementary coupling utilization, deep electrification, and smart energy network construction. Based on these, they can build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system, and strive for the competitive strengths of energy science and technology revolution and industrial transformation. At the same time, energy technology innovation is in a highly active period, and emerging energy technologies are accelerating at an unprecedented rate, with a number of disruptive technologies spawning. This study systematically sorts out the major strategic plannings for energy science and technology developed by major developed countries and regions, as well as analyzes the progresses and important achievements of energy technology, which can help to accurately grasp the evolving technology directions. Finally, it proposes several constructive recommendations for the development of energy science and technology in China.
Currently, the global energy system is shifting from the absolute dominance of fossil energy to the transition of lowcarbon and multi-energy. The global energy production and consumption revolution is constantly deepening, and emerging industries and new formats continue to grow and develop. In the process of energy transformation, major developed countries take science and technology innovation as the forerunner and take system reform as the starting point. They are committed to solving major strategic problems, such as green energy and low carbon transition, multi-energy complementary coupling utilization, deep electrification, and smart energy network construction. Based on these, they can build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system, and strive for the competitive strengths of energy science and technology revolution and industrial transformation. At the same time, energy technology innovation is in a highly active period, and emerging energy technologies are accelerating at an unprecedented rate, with a number of disruptive technologies spawning. This study systematically sorts out the major strategic plannings for energy science and technology developed by major developed countries and regions, as well as analyzes the progresses and important achievements of energy technology, which can help to accurately grasp the evolving technology directions. Finally, it proposes several constructive recommendations for the development of energy science and technology in China.
引文
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17新エネルギー·産業技術総合開発機構.地熱エネルギーのさらなる高度利用を目指す技術開発8テーマを採択.[2018-07-04].http://www.nedo.go.jp/news/press/AA5_100988.html.
18 World Economic Forum.Digital transformation initiative:Oil and gas industry.[2017-01-30].http://reports.weforum.org/digital-transformation/wp-content/blogs.dir/94/mp/files/pages/files/white-paper-2017-dti-oil-gas.pdf.
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22 Siemens.Siemens achieves breakthrough with 3D printed gas turbine blades.[2017-02-06].https://www.siemens.com/press/en/pressrelease/?press=/en/pressrelease/2017/power-gas/pr2017020154pgen.htm&content[]=PG.
23 GE.HA technology now available at industry-first 64 percent efficiency.[2017-12-05].http://www.genewsroom.com/press-releases/ha-technology-now-available-industry-first-64-percent-efficiency-284144.
24 Jiao F,Li J J,Pan X L,et al.Selective conversion of syngas to light olefins.Science,2016,351(6277):1065-1068.
25 OECD Nuclear Energy Agency.Technology roadmap update for generation IV nuclear energy systems.[2014-04-15].https://www.gen-4.org/gif/upload/docs/application/pdf/2014-03/gif-tru2014.pdf.
26 DOE.US Industry opportunities for advanced nuclear technology development.[2018-12-07].https://www.grants.gov/web/grants/search-grants.html?keywords=DE-FOA-0001817.
27中国科学院高能物理研究所.中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)“未来先进核裂变能--ADS嬗变系统”专项结题总体验收会召开.[2017-11-14].http://www.ihep.cas.cn/xwdt/gnxw/2017/201709/t20170929_4866634.html.
28中国科学院等离子体物理研究所.EAST首次获得百秒量级稳态高约束模等离子体.[2017-07-04].http://www.ipp.cas.cn/xwdt/kydt/201707/t20170726_378916.html.
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30 Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik.Wendelstein 7-X fusion device produces its first hydrogen plasma.[2016-02-03].http://www.ipp.mpg.de/4010154/02_16.
31 The National Academies of Sciences,Engineering and Medicine.Final report of the committee on a strategic plan for US burning plasma research.[2018-12-13].https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25331/final-report-of-the-committee-on-astrategic-plan-for-us-burning-plasma-research.
32 European Commission.Europe gears up to make fusion energy a reality.[2014-10-15].http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-1111_en.htm?locale=en.
33 DOE,DOI.National offshore wind strategy:Facilitating the development of the offshore wind industry in the United States.[2016-09-08].http://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/09/f33/National-Offshore-Wind-Strategy-report-09082016.pdf.
34 European Technology&Innovation Platform on Wind Energy.Strategic research and innovation agenda 2018.[2018-10-24].https://windeurope.org/wp-content/uploads/files/aboutwind/reports/ETIPWind-strategic-research-and-innovationagenda-2018.pdf.
35 DOE.Energy Department Announces Achievement of SunShot Goal,New Focus for Solar Energy Office.[2017-09-12].https://energy.gov/articles/energy-department-announcesachievement-sunshot-goal-new-focus-solar-energy-office
36新エネルギー·産業技術総合開発機構.太陽光発電コストのさらなる削減を目指す研究開発4テーマを新たに開始.[2017-06-26].http://www.nedo.go.jp/news/press/AA5_100785.html.
37 Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems.Need and opportunities for a strong European photovoltaic industry-The xGWp approach.[2015-01-27].https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/default/files/20150127-efsi-roundtable-pv-industry-supportweber.pdf.
38 NREL.Best research-cell efficiencies.[2019-01-03].https://www.nrel.gov/pv/assets/images/efficiency-chart.png.
39 DOE.Project LIBERTY biorefinery starts cellulosic ethanol production.[2014-09-03].http://energy.gov/articles/projectliberty-biorefinery-starts-cellulosic-ethanol-production.
40 SUNLIQUID.The sunliquid?process.[2015-12-25].http://sunliquid-project-fp7.eu/technology/sunliquid-process/.
41再生可能エネルギー·水素等関係閣僚会議.水素基本戦略.[2017-12-26].http://www.meti.go.jp/pre ss/2017/12/20171226002/20171226002-1.pdf.
42 Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking.Hydrogen roadmap Europe:A sustainable pathway for the European Energy Transition.[2019-02-11].https://www.fch.europa.eu/sites/default/files/Hydrogen%20Roadmap%20Europe_Report.pdf.
43 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation.National hydrogen roadmap.[2018-08-23].https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2018/Roadmapfinds-Hydrogen-Industry-set-for-scale-up.
44 Cheng W H,Richter M H,May M M,et al.Monolithic Photoelectrochemical Device for Direct Water Splitting with19%Efficiency.ACS Energy Letters,2018,DOI:10.1021/acsenergylett.8b00920.
45新エネルギー·産業技術総合開発機構.世界初、実用サイズのプロトン導電性セラミック燃料電池セル(PCFC)の作製に成功.[2018-07-04].http://www.nedo.go.jp/news/press/AA5_100987.html.
46 European Commission.Strategic action plan on batteries.[2018-05-17].https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:0e8b694e-59b5-11e8-ab41-01aa75ed71a1.0003.02/DOC_3&format=PDF.
47 DOE.Department of energy announces$120 million for battery innovation hub.[2018-09-18].https://www.energy.gov/articles/department-energy-announces-120-million-batteryinnovation-hub.
48新エネルギー·産業技術総合開発機構.全固体リチウムイオン電池の研究開発プロジェクトの第2期が始動.[2018-06-15].http://www.nedo.go.jp/news/press/AA5_100968.html.
49 Asadi M,Sayahpour B,Abbasi P,et al.A lithium-oxygen battery with a long cycle life in an air-like atmosphere.Nature,2018,555(7697):502.
50 Kwabi D G,Lin K X,Ji Y L,et al.Alkaline Quinone Flow Battery with Long Lifetime at pH 12.Joule,2018,2:1-13.
51中国科学院工程热物理研究所.北京市科技计划项目“大规模先进压缩空气储能系统研发与示范”顺利通过验收.[2019-01-28].http://www.etp.ac.cn/xwdt/zhxw/201902/t20190211_5240114.html.
52章建华.大力推进新时代能源改革开放.[2019-02-28].http://www.nea.gov.cn/2019-02/28/c_137857307.htm.
53中国科学院重大科技任务局.中科院洁净能源A类先导专项启动会在大连召开.[2018-06-20].http://www.cas.cn/sygz/201806/t20180620_4655360.shtml.
2陈伟.美国先进能源研究计划署管理创新研究及对我国的启示.科学学与科学技术管理,2016,37(11):20-33.
3 White House.An America first energy plan.[2017-03-28].https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/03/28/presidential-executive-order-promoting-energy-independenceand-economi-1.
4 European Commission.Energy 2020:A strategy for competitive,secure,and sustainable energy.[2010-11-10].http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX-:52010DC0639&from=EN.
5 European Commission.A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 to 2030.[2014-01-22].http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX-:52014DC0015&from=EN.
6 European Commission.Energy Roadmap 2050.[2011-12-15].http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy2020/roadmap/doc/com_2011_8852_en.pdf.
7 European Commission.Towards an integrated Strategic Energy Technology(SET)plan:Accelerating the European energy system transformation.[2015-09-15].https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/1_EN_ACT_part1_v8_0.pdf.
8総合科学技術·イノベーション会議.「エネルギー·環境イノベーション戦略(案)」の概要.[2016-04-19].http://www8.cao.go.jp/cstp/siryo/haihui018/siryo1-1.pdf.
9経済産業省.第5次エネルギー基本計画.[2 0 1 8-0 7-0 3].h t t p://w w w.m e t i.g o.j p/p r e ss/2018/07/20180703001/20180703001-1.pdf.
10 Federal Ministry for the Environment,Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety.Transforming our energy system-The foundations of a new energy age.[2012-05-01].https://secure.bmu.de/fileadmin/bmu-import/files/pdfs/allgemein/application/pdf/broschuere_energiewende_en_bf.pdf.
11 Deutscher Bundestag.Gesetz für den vorrang erneuerbarer energien(Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz-EEG).[2012-01-01].https://www.clearingstelle-eeg.de/files/EEG2012_juris_120817.pdf.
12 Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy.Innovations for the energy transition:7th energy research programme of the Federal government.[2018-09-19].https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Publikationen/Energie/7th-energyresearch-programme-of-the-federal-government.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=3.
13 International Energy Agency.Digitalization and energy.[2017-11-05].http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/DigitalizationandEnergy3.pdf.
14 BP.Technology outlook 2018.[2018-03-15].https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/technology/bptechnology-outlook-2018.pdf.
15 Sendek A D,Yang Q,Cubuk E D,et al.Holistic computational structure screening of more than 12 000 candidates for solid lithium-ion conductor materials.Energy&Environmental Science,2017,10(1):306-320.
16 DOE.Energy department announces$3.6 million in machine learning for geothermal energy.[2018-07-19].https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/energy-department-announces-36-million-machine-learning-geothermal-energy.
17新エネルギー·産業技術総合開発機構.地熱エネルギーのさらなる高度利用を目指す技術開発8テーマを採択.[2018-07-04].http://www.nedo.go.jp/news/press/AA5_100988.html.
18 World Economic Forum.Digital transformation initiative:Oil and gas industry.[2017-01-30].http://reports.weforum.org/digital-transformation/wp-content/blogs.dir/94/mp/files/pages/files/white-paper-2017-dti-oil-gas.pdf.
19 Carbon Utilization Research Council,Electric Power Research Institute.2018 CURC-EPRI advanced fossil energy technology roadmap.[2019-03-10].http://www.curc.net/webfiles/Roadmap/FINAL%202018%20CURC-EPRI%20Roadmap.pdf.
20 DOE.DOE announces$80 million investment to build supercritical carbon dioxide pilot plant test facility.[2016-10-17].http://www.energy.gov/under-secretary-science-andenergy/articles/doe-announces-80-million-investment-buildsupercritical.
21 Toshiba.Toshiba ships turbine for world’s first direct-fired supercritical oxy-combustion CO2 power cycle demonstration plant to US.[2016-11-01].http://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/press/2016_11/pr0101.htm#PRESS.
22 Siemens.Siemens achieves breakthrough with 3D printed gas turbine blades.[2017-02-06].https://www.siemens.com/press/en/pressrelease/?press=/en/pressrelease/2017/power-gas/pr2017020154pgen.htm&content[]=PG.
23 GE.HA technology now available at industry-first 64 percent efficiency.[2017-12-05].http://www.genewsroom.com/press-releases/ha-technology-now-available-industry-first-64-percent-efficiency-284144.
24 Jiao F,Li J J,Pan X L,et al.Selective conversion of syngas to light olefins.Science,2016,351(6277):1065-1068.
25 OECD Nuclear Energy Agency.Technology roadmap update for generation IV nuclear energy systems.[2014-04-15].https://www.gen-4.org/gif/upload/docs/application/pdf/2014-03/gif-tru2014.pdf.
26 DOE.US Industry opportunities for advanced nuclear technology development.[2018-12-07].https://www.grants.gov/web/grants/search-grants.html?keywords=DE-FOA-0001817.
27中国科学院高能物理研究所.中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)“未来先进核裂变能--ADS嬗变系统”专项结题总体验收会召开.[2017-11-14].http://www.ihep.cas.cn/xwdt/gnxw/2017/201709/t20170929_4866634.html.
28中国科学院等离子体物理研究所.EAST首次获得百秒量级稳态高约束模等离子体.[2017-07-04].http://www.ipp.cas.cn/xwdt/kydt/201707/t20170726_378916.html.
29中国科学院等离子体物理研究所.EAST装置取得1亿度等离子体运行等成果.[2018-11-12].http://www.cas.cn/syky/201811/t20181112_4670007.shtml.
30 Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik.Wendelstein 7-X fusion device produces its first hydrogen plasma.[2016-02-03].http://www.ipp.mpg.de/4010154/02_16.
31 The National Academies of Sciences,Engineering and Medicine.Final report of the committee on a strategic plan for US burning plasma research.[2018-12-13].https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25331/final-report-of-the-committee-on-astrategic-plan-for-us-burning-plasma-research.
32 European Commission.Europe gears up to make fusion energy a reality.[2014-10-15].http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-1111_en.htm?locale=en.
33 DOE,DOI.National offshore wind strategy:Facilitating the development of the offshore wind industry in the United States.[2016-09-08].http://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/09/f33/National-Offshore-Wind-Strategy-report-09082016.pdf.
34 European Technology&Innovation Platform on Wind Energy.Strategic research and innovation agenda 2018.[2018-10-24].https://windeurope.org/wp-content/uploads/files/aboutwind/reports/ETIPWind-strategic-research-and-innovationagenda-2018.pdf.
35 DOE.Energy Department Announces Achievement of SunShot Goal,New Focus for Solar Energy Office.[2017-09-12].https://energy.gov/articles/energy-department-announcesachievement-sunshot-goal-new-focus-solar-energy-office
36新エネルギー·産業技術総合開発機構.太陽光発電コストのさらなる削減を目指す研究開発4テーマを新たに開始.[2017-06-26].http://www.nedo.go.jp/news/press/AA5_100785.html.
37 Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems.Need and opportunities for a strong European photovoltaic industry-The xGWp approach.[2015-01-27].https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/default/files/20150127-efsi-roundtable-pv-industry-supportweber.pdf.
38 NREL.Best research-cell efficiencies.[2019-01-03].https://www.nrel.gov/pv/assets/images/efficiency-chart.png.
39 DOE.Project LIBERTY biorefinery starts cellulosic ethanol production.[2014-09-03].http://energy.gov/articles/projectliberty-biorefinery-starts-cellulosic-ethanol-production.
40 SUNLIQUID.The sunliquid?process.[2015-12-25].http://sunliquid-project-fp7.eu/technology/sunliquid-process/.
41再生可能エネルギー·水素等関係閣僚会議.水素基本戦略.[2017-12-26].http://www.meti.go.jp/pre ss/2017/12/20171226002/20171226002-1.pdf.
42 Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking.Hydrogen roadmap Europe:A sustainable pathway for the European Energy Transition.[2019-02-11].https://www.fch.europa.eu/sites/default/files/Hydrogen%20Roadmap%20Europe_Report.pdf.
43 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation.National hydrogen roadmap.[2018-08-23].https://www.csiro.au/en/News/News-releases/2018/Roadmapfinds-Hydrogen-Industry-set-for-scale-up.
44 Cheng W H,Richter M H,May M M,et al.Monolithic Photoelectrochemical Device for Direct Water Splitting with19%Efficiency.ACS Energy Letters,2018,DOI:10.1021/acsenergylett.8b00920.
45新エネルギー·産業技術総合開発機構.世界初、実用サイズのプロトン導電性セラミック燃料電池セル(PCFC)の作製に成功.[2018-07-04].http://www.nedo.go.jp/news/press/AA5_100987.html.
46 European Commission.Strategic action plan on batteries.[2018-05-17].https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:0e8b694e-59b5-11e8-ab41-01aa75ed71a1.0003.02/DOC_3&format=PDF.
47 DOE.Department of energy announces$120 million for battery innovation hub.[2018-09-18].https://www.energy.gov/articles/department-energy-announces-120-million-batteryinnovation-hub.
48新エネルギー·産業技術総合開発機構.全固体リチウムイオン電池の研究開発プロジェクトの第2期が始動.[2018-06-15].http://www.nedo.go.jp/news/press/AA5_100968.html.
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