城乡居民生活消费间接碳排放敏感度研究——以北京市为例
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摘要
本文结合投入-产出模型与Sherman-Morrison方程构建城乡居民间接碳排放敏感度模型,利用2012年北京市投入-产出表,核算出北京市城乡居民生活消费间接碳排放量,并在此基础上计算并分析城乡居民间接碳排放对42个行业生产技术变动的敏感度,明确对居民间接碳排放影响最大的关键行业及关键生产关系。结果表明:①北京市城镇居民生活消费间接碳排放总量远高于乡村居民,而且在大多数行业中城镇居民间接碳排放都大于乡村居民,居民间接碳排放量的城乡差异体现出城乡居民在生活消费需求方面的差异。从行业角度看,食品和烟草业在城镇和乡村都是导致居民消费间接碳排放量最高的行业;②电力、热力的生产和供应业、食品和烟草业、交通运输、仓储和邮政业的生产技术变化对北京市城乡居民间接碳排放的影响最大,多数行业的生产技术变化对城、乡居民间接碳排放的影响程度都存在差异;③在制定碳减排政策时应该大力鼓励对居民消费间接碳排放影响显著的关键行业的技术升级,推动关键行业的技术提升可以起到事半功倍的碳减排效果。
Based on the input-output model and Sherman-Morrison equation, the sensitivity model of urban and rural residents' indirect carbon emission was set up. With the input-output tables of Beijing in 2012, indirect carbon emissions from urban and rural resident household consumption in Beijing were calculated. Furthermore, on the basis of the calculation, the sensitive analysis of the urban and rural residents' indirect carbon emission on the technology changes of 42 sectors was made, from which the key sectors and key production relations with the maximum influence on residents' indirect carbon were identified. The results showed: ①The indirect carbon emission of urban household consumption is much higher than that of rural household consumption in Beijing and the former in most industries is greater than the latter. From the perspective of sector, food and tobacco industry is the largest emission sector in the indirect carbon emissions from both urban and rural household consumption. The differences between urban and rural residents' indirect carbon emissions reflect the differences between urban and rural residents on the consumption demand. ② The technological changes of electricity, heat production and supply industry, food and tobacco industry, transportation, storage and postal industry have the largest influences on indirect carbon emissions of urban and rural household consumption in Beijing. There are differences of influential extents of technology changes in most sectors on urban and rural household indirect carbon emissions. ③ When formulating carbon emission reduction policies,policy makers should strongly encourage the technology upgrading of key industries that have significant impact on the indirect carbon emissions of household consumption. Promoting the technology upgrading of key industries can achieve the carbon emission reduction effect with half the effort.
Based on the input-output model and Sherman-Morrison equation, the sensitivity model of urban and rural residents' indirect carbon emission was set up. With the input-output tables of Beijing in 2012, indirect carbon emissions from urban and rural resident household consumption in Beijing were calculated. Furthermore, on the basis of the calculation, the sensitive analysis of the urban and rural residents' indirect carbon emission on the technology changes of 42 sectors was made, from which the key sectors and key production relations with the maximum influence on residents' indirect carbon were identified. The results showed: ①The indirect carbon emission of urban household consumption is much higher than that of rural household consumption in Beijing and the former in most industries is greater than the latter. From the perspective of sector, food and tobacco industry is the largest emission sector in the indirect carbon emissions from both urban and rural household consumption. The differences between urban and rural residents' indirect carbon emissions reflect the differences between urban and rural residents on the consumption demand. ② The technological changes of electricity, heat production and supply industry, food and tobacco industry, transportation, storage and postal industry have the largest influences on indirect carbon emissions of urban and rural household consumption in Beijing. There are differences of influential extents of technology changes in most sectors on urban and rural household indirect carbon emissions. ③ When formulating carbon emission reduction policies,policy makers should strongly encourage the technology upgrading of key industries that have significant impact on the indirect carbon emissions of household consumption. Promoting the technology upgrading of key industries can achieve the carbon emission reduction effect with half the effort.
引文
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[24]闫俊娜,赵涛.高耗能行业CO2排放强度对生产技术变化的敏感性分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(12):2398-2408.
[25]闫俊娜,赵涛,张欣.基于Ghosh投入-产出模型的敏感性分析---以中国高耗能行业为例[J].管理评论,2015,27(3):39-48+66.
[26]YAN Junna,ZHAO Tao,KANG Jidong.Sensitivity analysis of technology and supply change for CO2emission intensity of energy-intensive industries based on input-output model[J].Applied Energy,2016,171(1):456-467.
[27]刘红光,刘卫东,唐志鹏.中国产业能源消费碳排放结构及其减排敏感性分析[J].地理科学进展,2010,(6):670-676.
[28]Su Bin,Ang B W.Input-output analysis of CO2emissions embodied in trade:Competitive versus noncompetitive imports[J].Energy policy,2013(56):83-87.
[2]何建坤.中国能源革命与低碳发展的战略选择[J].武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2015,68(1):5-12.
[3]PACHAURI Shonali,SPRENG Daniel.Direct and indirect energy requirements of household in India[J].Energy Policy,2002,30(6):511-523.
[4]VRINGER·Kees,BLOK Kornelis.The direct and indirect energy requirements of households in the Netherlands[J].Energy Policy,1995,23(10):893-910.
[5]PARK Hi-Chun,HEO Eunnyeong.The direct and indirect household energy requirements in the Republic of Korea from 1980 to 2000-An input-output analysis[J].Energy Policy,2007,35(5):2839-2851.
[6]WEI·Y·M,LIU·L·C,FAN·Y,et al.The impact of lifestyle on energy use and CO2emission:An empirical analysis of China’s residents[J].Energy Policy,2007,35(1):247-257.
[7]DAS Aparna,PAUL Saikat Kumar.CO2emissions from household consumption in India between 1993-94 and2006-07:A decomposition analysis[J].Energy Economics,2014,41:90-105.
[8]KOK Rixt,BENDERS Rene M J,MOLL Henri C.Measuring the environmental load of household consumption using some methods based on input-output energy analysis:A comparison of methods and a discussion of results[J].Energy Policy,2006,34:2744-2761.
[9]马晓微,叶奕,杜佳等.基于投入产出中美居民生活消费间接碳排放研究[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2016,18(1):24-29.
[10]吴开亚,王文秀,张浩等.上海市居民消费的间接碳排放及影响因素分析[J].华东经济管理,2013,27(1):1-7.
[11]LENZEN M.Primary energy and greenhouse gases embodied in Australian final consumption:an input-output analysis[J].Energy Policy,1998,26(6):495-506.
[12]WILTING H C,BIESIOT W,MOLL H C.Analyzing potentials for reducing the energy requirement of households in the Netherlands[J].Economic Systems Research,1999,11(3):233-243.
[13]MUNKSGAARD J,PEDERSEN K A,WIEN M.Impact of household consumption on CO2emissions[J].Energy Economics,2000,22:423-430.
[14]MUNKSGAARD J,PEDERSEN K A,WIEN M.Changing consumption patterns and CO2reduction[J].International Journal of Environment and Pollution,2001,15(2):146-158.
[15]KIM J H.Changes in consumption patterns and environmental degradation in Korea[J].Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2002,13(1):1-48.
[16]陈莎,李燚佩,程利平等.基于LCA的北京市社区碳排放研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(11):5-9.
[17]凤振华,邹乐乐,魏一鸣.中国居民生活与CO2排放关系研究[J].中国能源,2010,32(3):37-40.
[18]杨红娟,王乐,刘红琴.城乡居民间接碳排放研究-以云南省为例[J].经济问题探索,2015(4):19-23.
[19]WEBER Christoph,PERRELS Adriaan.Modelling lifestyle elects on energy demand and related emissions[J].Energy Policy,2000,28(8):549-566.
[20]PACHAURI Shonali,SPRENG Daniel.Direct and indirect energy requirements of households in India[J].Energy Policy,2002,30(6):511-523.
[21]REINDERS A H M E,VRINGER K,BLOK K.The direct and indirect energy requirement of households in the European Union[J].Energy Policy,2003,31(2):139-153.
[22]MIGUEL Angel Tarancón,PABLO del Río.CO2emissions and intersectoral linkages.The case of Spain[J].Energy Policy,2007,35(2):1100-1116.
[23]HIROKI Hondo,SHINSUKE Sakai,SHIRO Tanno.Sensitivity analysis of total CO2emission intensities estimated using an input-output table[J].Applied Energy,2002,72(3-4):689-704.
[24]闫俊娜,赵涛.高耗能行业CO2排放强度对生产技术变化的敏感性分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(12):2398-2408.
[25]闫俊娜,赵涛,张欣.基于Ghosh投入-产出模型的敏感性分析---以中国高耗能行业为例[J].管理评论,2015,27(3):39-48+66.
[26]YAN Junna,ZHAO Tao,KANG Jidong.Sensitivity analysis of technology and supply change for CO2emission intensity of energy-intensive industries based on input-output model[J].Applied Energy,2016,171(1):456-467.
[27]刘红光,刘卫东,唐志鹏.中国产业能源消费碳排放结构及其减排敏感性分析[J].地理科学进展,2010,(6):670-676.
[28]Su Bin,Ang B W.Input-output analysis of CO2emissions embodied in trade:Competitive versus noncompetitive imports[J].Energy policy,2013(56):83-87.