增加值贸易对全球经济联动的影响
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摘要
在增加值核算框架下,依据价值来源地和价值吸收地原则对产品增加值进行分解,解释"贸易—经济联动之谜",经验研究发现,增加值贸易对经济联动存在显著的正向推动作用,但在轮轴国家与辐条国家中表现出非对称性,轮轴国家发挥着"枢纽作用"。凝聚子群分析表明,凝聚子群与增加值贸易具有互补性,当双边国家属于同一子群时,其增加值贸易强度对经济联动的影响趋强。我国实施非均衡开放战略,积极推进与轮轴国家间的增加值连接,利用经济体增长的关联效应,可实现向高收入经济体增长的收敛。与此同时,利用"一带一路"贸易网络核心节点的优势,继续推动"一带一路"建设,为沿线国家提供更多融入全球增加值分工体系的通道,构建合作共赢、联动发展的全球经济生态。
Using an added value accounting framework,we conducted empirical research to analyze the added value of products in accordance with the principle of value-sourcing and value-absorption areas and to decode the"riddle of the coupling of trade and the economy."As our study shows,value-added trade can provide a significant positive stimulus for economic coupling,but it is marked by asymmetry between hub and spoke countries,with the former having apivotal role.Our analysis of cohesive subgroups indicates that cohesive subgroups and value-added trade are complementary.When bilateral countries belong to the same subgroup,the intensity of their value-added trade exerts an increasing influence on economic coupling.China has adopted a non-equilibrium opening up strategy and has actively boosted valueadded coupling with hub countries;its utilization of the associated effects of economic growth will enable it to achieve convergence with the growth of high-income economies.At the same time,China is taking advantage of core linkages in the Belt and Road trade network,continuing to boost Belt and Road construction,providing channels for countries along the Belt and Road to integrate into the global value-added system of division of labor,and building aglobal economic environment that features win-win collaboration and the development of linkages.
Using an added value accounting framework,we conducted empirical research to analyze the added value of products in accordance with the principle of value-sourcing and value-absorption areas and to decode the"riddle of the coupling of trade and the economy."As our study shows,value-added trade can provide a significant positive stimulus for economic coupling,but it is marked by asymmetry between hub and spoke countries,with the former having apivotal role.Our analysis of cohesive subgroups indicates that cohesive subgroups and value-added trade are complementary.When bilateral countries belong to the same subgroup,the intensity of their value-added trade exerts an increasing influence on economic coupling.China has adopted a non-equilibrium opening up strategy and has actively boosted valueadded coupling with hub countries;its utilization of the associated effects of economic growth will enable it to achieve convergence with the growth of high-income economies.At the same time,China is taking advantage of core linkages in the Belt and Road trade network,continuing to boost Belt and Road construction,providing channels for countries along the Belt and Road to integrate into the global value-added system of division of labor,and building aglobal economic environment that features win-win collaboration and the development of linkages.
引文
(1)J.A.Frankel and A.K.Rose,“The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria,” The Economic Journal,vol.108,no.449,1998,pp.1009-1025.
(2)M.A.Kose and K.M.Yi,“Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation between Trade and Comovement?” Journal of International Economics,vol.68,no.2,2006,pp.267-295.
(3)J.Imbs,“Trade,Finance,Specialization,and Synchronization,” The Review of Economics and Statistics,vol.86,no.3,2004,pp.723-734;杨继军、范从来:《“中国制造”对全球经济“大稳健”的影响——基于价值链的实证检验》,《中国社会科学》2015年第10期。
(4)L.Juvenal and P.S.Monteiro,“Trade and Synchronization in a Multi-Country Economy,” European Economic Review,vol.92,no.1,2017,pp.385-415.
(5)C.Y.Wong and Y.K.Eng,“International Business Cycle Co-Movement and Vertical Specialization Reconsidered in Multistage Bayesian DSGE Model,” International Review of Economics and Finance,vol.26,no.4,2013,pp.109-124.
(6)M.A.Kose and K.M.Yi,“Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation between Trade and Comovement?” pp.267-295.
(7)R.Johnson,“Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement,” American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,vol.6,no.4,2014,pp.39-83.
(8)J.D.Giovanni and A.A.Levchenko,“Putting the Parts Together:Trade,Vertical Linkages,and Business Cycle Comovement,”American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,vol.2,no.2,2010,pp.95-124.
(9)潘文卿、娄莹、李宏彬:《价值链贸易与经济周期的联动:国际规律及中国经验》,《经济研究》2015年第11期。
(10)R.Duval et al.,“Value-Added Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization,” Journal of International Economics,vol.99,2016,pp.251-262.
(11)Z.Wang et al.,“Measures of Participation in Global Value Chains and Global Business Cycles,” NBER Working Paper,no.23222,2017.
(12)Fagiolo等对贸易网络性质及其演化的研究发现,国际贸易网络中各节点的分布极不均匀,呈现出显著的“厚尾”特征,多数国家属于弱贸易关联,只有少数国家呈现强贸易联系的特征,一般将拥有大量连接的节点称为“核心节点”(或称“轮轴国家”),仅拥有少量连接的节点称为“末梢节点”(或称“辐条国家”)。牵制控制的基本思想是,通过有选择地对国际贸易网络中的核心节点施加控制,使得整个网络表现出期望的行为。参见G.Fagiolo,J.Reyes and S.Schiavo,“The World-Trade Web:Topological Properties,Dynamics,and Evolution,” Physical Review E:Statistical,Nonlinear,and Soft Matter Physics,vol.79,no.3,2009,pp.1-44;汪小帆:《在线社会网络分析与网络牵制控制》,《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2010年第3期。
(13)R.Koopman,Z.Wang and S.J.Wei,“Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports,” American Economic Review,vol.104,no.2,2014,pp.459-494.
(14)参见顾国达、任祎卓、郭爱美:《垂直专业化贸易对国际经济周期传导的影响——来自中国与东亚9国(地区)间的证据》,《财贸经济》2016年第7期。
(15)M.Granovetter,“Economic Action and Social Structure:The Problem of Embeddedness,” American Journal of Sociology,vol.91,no.3,1985,pp.481-510.
(16)参见段文奇、刘宝全、季建华:《国际贸易网络拓扑结构的演化》,《系统工程理论与实践》2008年第10期。
(17)D.Garlaschelli et al.,“Interplay between Topology and Dynamics in the World Trade Web,” The European Physical Journal B:Condensed Matter and Complex Systems,vol.57,no.2,2007,pp.159-164.
(18)参见倪红福、龚六堂、陈湘杰:《全球价值链中的关税成本效应分析——兼论中美贸易摩擦的价格效应和福利效应》,《数量经济技术经济研究》2018年第8期。
(19)S.Kalemli-Ozcan,E.Papaioannou and J.Peydro,“Financial Regulation,Financial Globalization and the Synchronization of Economic Activity,” The Journal of Finance,vol.68,no.3,2013,pp.1179-1228.
(20)R.Duval et al.,“Value-Added Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization,” pp.251-262.
(21)R.Koopman,Z.Wang and S.J.Wei,“Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports,” pp.459-494;王直、魏尚进、祝坤福:《总贸易核算法:官方贸易统计与全球价值链的度量》,《中国社会科学》2015年第9期。
(22)M.E.J.Newman,“Detecting Community Structure in Networks,” The European Physical Journal B,vol.38,no.2,2004,pp.321-330.
(23)参见罗来军等:《基于引力模型重新推导的双边国际贸易检验》,《世界经济》2014年第12期。
(24)资源转移机制系指,如果国家间贸易品的替代性强,当本国出现正的生产率冲击时,资源可能会由外国流向本国,结果是本国产出增加,外国产出减少,经济联动反而下降。参见E.C.Y.Ng,“Production Fragmentation and Business-Cycle Comovement,” Journal of International Economics,vol.82,no.1,2010,pp.1-14.
(25)参见C.Y.Wong and Y.K.Eng,“International Business Cycle Co-Movement and Vertical Specialization Reconsidered in Multistage Bayesian DSGE Model,” pp.109-124.
(26)J.Imbs,“Trade,Finance,Specialization,and Synchronization,” pp.723-734.
(27)M.D.Chinn and H.Ito,“What Matters for Financial Development?Capital Controls,Institutions,and Interactions,” Journal of Development Economics,vol.81,no.1,2006,pp.163-192.
(28)参见M.P.Timmer et al.,“An Anatomy of the Global Trade Slowdown Based on the WIOD 2016 Release,” GGDC Research Memorandum,University of Groningen,no.162,2016.
(29)参见D.Roodman,“How to Do Xtabond2:An Introduction to Difference and System GMM in Stata,” The Stata Journal,vol.9,2009,pp.86-136.
(30)唐宜红、张鹏杨、梅冬州:《全球价值链嵌入与国际经济周期联动:基于增加值贸易视角》,《世界经济》2018年第11期。
(31)K.Bhattacharya et al.,“The International Trade Network:Weighted Network Analysis and Modeling,” Journal of Statistical Mechanics Theory and Experiment,vol.41,2008,pp.139-147.
(32)邓军、王丽娟:《生产分割、周期协同与主要贸易伙伴的关联:1995—2008年》,《改革》2012年第7期;R.Duval et al.,“Value-Added Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization.”
(33)Davis还认为,在“财富效应”下,金融一体化也可能弱化经济联动。参见J.S.Davis,“Financial Integration and International Business Cycle Co-Movement,” Journal of Monetary Economics,vol.64,no.3,2014,pp.99-111.
(34)数据源于WTO秘书处,https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/region_e.htm.
(35)“脱钩”指两国经济周期同步性的减弱,Kose等在考察全球经济周期时,发现发达经济体、新兴市场经济体内部的经济联动在增强,但是这两类经济体之间的联动出现“脱钩”现象。参见A.M.Kose,C.Otrok and E.Prasad,“Global Business Cycles:Convergence or Decoupling?” International Economic Review,vol.53,no.2,2012,pp.511-538.
(36)WTO,OECD,IDE-JETRO and UIBE,“Global Value Chain Development Report 2017:Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of GVCs on Economic Development,” 2017,pp.1-189.
(37)迭代相关收敛法的基本做法是:首先将国别贸易数据表示为矩阵形式,计算矩阵的各个行(或者列)之间的相关系数,得到相关系数矩阵C1;在此基础上,计算矩阵C1各个行(或者列)的相关系数,得到矩阵C2,依次进行,最终得到的矩阵Cn中的相关系数均为1或-1。对矩阵Cn进行重新排列,达到对贸易参与国进行分类的目的。参见刘军:《整体网络分析讲义:UCINET软件实用指南》,上海:格致出版社、上海人民出版社,2014年,第230—234页。
(2)M.A.Kose and K.M.Yi,“Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation between Trade and Comovement?” Journal of International Economics,vol.68,no.2,2006,pp.267-295.
(3)J.Imbs,“Trade,Finance,Specialization,and Synchronization,” The Review of Economics and Statistics,vol.86,no.3,2004,pp.723-734;杨继军、范从来:《“中国制造”对全球经济“大稳健”的影响——基于价值链的实证检验》,《中国社会科学》2015年第10期。
(4)L.Juvenal and P.S.Monteiro,“Trade and Synchronization in a Multi-Country Economy,” European Economic Review,vol.92,no.1,2017,pp.385-415.
(5)C.Y.Wong and Y.K.Eng,“International Business Cycle Co-Movement and Vertical Specialization Reconsidered in Multistage Bayesian DSGE Model,” International Review of Economics and Finance,vol.26,no.4,2013,pp.109-124.
(6)M.A.Kose and K.M.Yi,“Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation between Trade and Comovement?” pp.267-295.
(7)R.Johnson,“Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement,” American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,vol.6,no.4,2014,pp.39-83.
(8)J.D.Giovanni and A.A.Levchenko,“Putting the Parts Together:Trade,Vertical Linkages,and Business Cycle Comovement,”American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics,vol.2,no.2,2010,pp.95-124.
(9)潘文卿、娄莹、李宏彬:《价值链贸易与经济周期的联动:国际规律及中国经验》,《经济研究》2015年第11期。
(10)R.Duval et al.,“Value-Added Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization,” Journal of International Economics,vol.99,2016,pp.251-262.
(11)Z.Wang et al.,“Measures of Participation in Global Value Chains and Global Business Cycles,” NBER Working Paper,no.23222,2017.
(12)Fagiolo等对贸易网络性质及其演化的研究发现,国际贸易网络中各节点的分布极不均匀,呈现出显著的“厚尾”特征,多数国家属于弱贸易关联,只有少数国家呈现强贸易联系的特征,一般将拥有大量连接的节点称为“核心节点”(或称“轮轴国家”),仅拥有少量连接的节点称为“末梢节点”(或称“辐条国家”)。牵制控制的基本思想是,通过有选择地对国际贸易网络中的核心节点施加控制,使得整个网络表现出期望的行为。参见G.Fagiolo,J.Reyes and S.Schiavo,“The World-Trade Web:Topological Properties,Dynamics,and Evolution,” Physical Review E:Statistical,Nonlinear,and Soft Matter Physics,vol.79,no.3,2009,pp.1-44;汪小帆:《在线社会网络分析与网络牵制控制》,《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2010年第3期。
(13)R.Koopman,Z.Wang and S.J.Wei,“Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports,” American Economic Review,vol.104,no.2,2014,pp.459-494.
(14)参见顾国达、任祎卓、郭爱美:《垂直专业化贸易对国际经济周期传导的影响——来自中国与东亚9国(地区)间的证据》,《财贸经济》2016年第7期。
(15)M.Granovetter,“Economic Action and Social Structure:The Problem of Embeddedness,” American Journal of Sociology,vol.91,no.3,1985,pp.481-510.
(16)参见段文奇、刘宝全、季建华:《国际贸易网络拓扑结构的演化》,《系统工程理论与实践》2008年第10期。
(17)D.Garlaschelli et al.,“Interplay between Topology and Dynamics in the World Trade Web,” The European Physical Journal B:Condensed Matter and Complex Systems,vol.57,no.2,2007,pp.159-164.
(18)参见倪红福、龚六堂、陈湘杰:《全球价值链中的关税成本效应分析——兼论中美贸易摩擦的价格效应和福利效应》,《数量经济技术经济研究》2018年第8期。
(19)S.Kalemli-Ozcan,E.Papaioannou and J.Peydro,“Financial Regulation,Financial Globalization and the Synchronization of Economic Activity,” The Journal of Finance,vol.68,no.3,2013,pp.1179-1228.
(20)R.Duval et al.,“Value-Added Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization,” pp.251-262.
(21)R.Koopman,Z.Wang and S.J.Wei,“Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports,” pp.459-494;王直、魏尚进、祝坤福:《总贸易核算法:官方贸易统计与全球价值链的度量》,《中国社会科学》2015年第9期。
(22)M.E.J.Newman,“Detecting Community Structure in Networks,” The European Physical Journal B,vol.38,no.2,2004,pp.321-330.
(23)参见罗来军等:《基于引力模型重新推导的双边国际贸易检验》,《世界经济》2014年第12期。
(24)资源转移机制系指,如果国家间贸易品的替代性强,当本国出现正的生产率冲击时,资源可能会由外国流向本国,结果是本国产出增加,外国产出减少,经济联动反而下降。参见E.C.Y.Ng,“Production Fragmentation and Business-Cycle Comovement,” Journal of International Economics,vol.82,no.1,2010,pp.1-14.
(25)参见C.Y.Wong and Y.K.Eng,“International Business Cycle Co-Movement and Vertical Specialization Reconsidered in Multistage Bayesian DSGE Model,” pp.109-124.
(26)J.Imbs,“Trade,Finance,Specialization,and Synchronization,” pp.723-734.
(27)M.D.Chinn and H.Ito,“What Matters for Financial Development?Capital Controls,Institutions,and Interactions,” Journal of Development Economics,vol.81,no.1,2006,pp.163-192.
(28)参见M.P.Timmer et al.,“An Anatomy of the Global Trade Slowdown Based on the WIOD 2016 Release,” GGDC Research Memorandum,University of Groningen,no.162,2016.
(29)参见D.Roodman,“How to Do Xtabond2:An Introduction to Difference and System GMM in Stata,” The Stata Journal,vol.9,2009,pp.86-136.
(30)唐宜红、张鹏杨、梅冬州:《全球价值链嵌入与国际经济周期联动:基于增加值贸易视角》,《世界经济》2018年第11期。
(31)K.Bhattacharya et al.,“The International Trade Network:Weighted Network Analysis and Modeling,” Journal of Statistical Mechanics Theory and Experiment,vol.41,2008,pp.139-147.
(32)邓军、王丽娟:《生产分割、周期协同与主要贸易伙伴的关联:1995—2008年》,《改革》2012年第7期;R.Duval et al.,“Value-Added Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization.”
(33)Davis还认为,在“财富效应”下,金融一体化也可能弱化经济联动。参见J.S.Davis,“Financial Integration and International Business Cycle Co-Movement,” Journal of Monetary Economics,vol.64,no.3,2014,pp.99-111.
(34)数据源于WTO秘书处,https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/region_e.htm.
(35)“脱钩”指两国经济周期同步性的减弱,Kose等在考察全球经济周期时,发现发达经济体、新兴市场经济体内部的经济联动在增强,但是这两类经济体之间的联动出现“脱钩”现象。参见A.M.Kose,C.Otrok and E.Prasad,“Global Business Cycles:Convergence or Decoupling?” International Economic Review,vol.53,no.2,2012,pp.511-538.
(36)WTO,OECD,IDE-JETRO and UIBE,“Global Value Chain Development Report 2017:Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of GVCs on Economic Development,” 2017,pp.1-189.
(37)迭代相关收敛法的基本做法是:首先将国别贸易数据表示为矩阵形式,计算矩阵的各个行(或者列)之间的相关系数,得到相关系数矩阵C1;在此基础上,计算矩阵C1各个行(或者列)的相关系数,得到矩阵C2,依次进行,最终得到的矩阵Cn中的相关系数均为1或-1。对矩阵Cn进行重新排列,达到对贸易参与国进行分类的目的。参见刘军:《整体网络分析讲义:UCINET软件实用指南》,上海:格致出版社、上海人民出版社,2014年,第230—234页。