空间环境长期演化模型研究
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摘要
伴随着人类航天活动,空间碎片的数量越来越多,对航天器的威胁日益凸显,对空间碎片环境的研究一方面在于提高空间监视能力,另一方面在于分析空间目标的运动特性,建立空间环境演化模型;分析国内外在空间环境长期演化模型方面的研究现状,以LEGEND模型和DAMAGE模型为例,对国外空间环境长期演化模型的机理进行研究,指出空间环境长期演化模型中的关键科学问题:空间目标碰撞解体特性、轨道长期预测和碰撞概率计算模型;阐述关键科学问题的研究现状,并分析了GEO区域的Kessler现象;展望长期演化模型的未来研究方向,举例分析针对特定区域、特定状况的空间环境演化问题;国内外对空间环境长期演化分析,得出结论:为了避免Kessler现象的发生,需进行空间碎片的清除工作。
Along with human being's space activities,space debris is increasing,and the threat to spacecraft is becoming more and more prominent.The research on space debris environment is to improve the ability of space surveillance,and to analyze the motion characteristics of space objects and establish space environmental evolution model.Analyze the research status of space environment's long-term evolution model at home and abroad.Taking LEGEND model and DAMAGE model as examples,study the mechanism of foreign space environment's long-term evolution model,and put forward the key scientific problems in the longterm evolution model:space objects' collision breakup characteristics,long-term orbit prediction and collision probability model.Explain the research status of key scientific issues and analyze the Kessler Syndrome in the GEO region.Forecast the future research direction of the long-term evolution model,and analyze the spatial environment evolution problem for specific regions and specific conditions.At home and abroad,the long-term evolution of the space environment is analyzed,and it is concluded that in order to avoid the occurrence of the Kessler Syndrome,space debris removal is required.
Along with human being's space activities,space debris is increasing,and the threat to spacecraft is becoming more and more prominent.The research on space debris environment is to improve the ability of space surveillance,and to analyze the motion characteristics of space objects and establish space environmental evolution model.Analyze the research status of space environment's long-term evolution model at home and abroad.Taking LEGEND model and DAMAGE model as examples,study the mechanism of foreign space environment's long-term evolution model,and put forward the key scientific problems in the longterm evolution model:space objects' collision breakup characteristics,long-term orbit prediction and collision probability model.Explain the research status of key scientific issues and analyze the Kessler Syndrome in the GEO region.Forecast the future research direction of the long-term evolution model,and analyze the spatial environment evolution problem for specific regions and specific conditions.At home and abroad,the long-term evolution of the space environment is analyzed,and it is concluded that in order to avoid the occurrence of the Kessler Syndrome,space debris removal is required.
引文
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[34]李怡勇,李智,沈怀荣.地球静止轨道卫星撞击解体的数值模拟[J].上海航天,2011,28(4):47-50.
[35]周宵灯,崔村燕,赵蓓蕾,等.卫星爆炸碎片产生过程与影响因素的数值分析[J].兵器装备工程学报,2018,39(5):196-200.
[36]齐跃,李怡勇,来嘉哲.航天器碰撞解体模型分析比较[J].兵工自动化,2018,37(2):74-77.
[37]霍俞蓉.空间碎片接近分析与碰撞概率计算方法研究[D].北京:装备学院,2017.
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[39]Hoots F R,Schumacher Jr P W,Glover R A.History of analytical orbit modeling in the US space surveillance system[J].Journal of Guidance,Control,and Dynamics,2004,27(2):174-185.
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[41]尚树喜.空间碎片轨道预报筛选策略研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2006.
[42]Vallado D A.An analysis of state vector propagation using differing flight dynamics programs[A].AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Conference[C].Copper Mountain,Colorado,2005.
[43]Fonte J D,Neta B,Sabol C,et al.Comparison of Orbit Propagators in the Research and Development Goddard Trajectory Determination System(R&D GTDS).Part 1.Simulated Data[R].NAVAL Postgraduate School Monterey Cadept of Mathematics,1995.
[44]Cefola P J.A Recursive Formulation for the Tesseral Disturbing Function in Equinoctial Variables[A].AIAA and AAS,Astrodynamics Conference[C].1976.
[45]Cefola P J.Equinoctial Orbit Elements:Application to Artificial Satellite Orbits[A].AIAA and AAS,Astrodynamics Conference[C].1972.
[46]Cefola P J,Folcik Z,Di-Costanzo R,et al.Revisiting the DSST Standalone Orbit Propagator[A].AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting[C].2014.
[47]王大为,汤靖师,刘林.半分析方法在地球卫星100yr尺度长期预报中的性能评估[J].天文学报,2017,58(1):20-45.
[48]王大为.半分析方法及其在地球卫星轨道长期演化中的性能评估[D].南京:南京大学,2016.
[49]Liou J C.Collision activities in the future orbital debris environment[J].Advances in Space Research,2006,38(9):2102-2106.
[50]Liou J C,Kessler D,Matney M,et al.A new approach to evaluate collision probabilities among asteroids,comets,and Kuiper Belt objects[A].Lunar and Planetary Institute Science Conference Abstracts[C].2003.
[51]Kessler D J.Derivation of the collision probability between orbiting objects:The lifetimes of Jupiter's outer moons[J].Icarus,1981,48(1):39-48.
[52]Kessler D J.Collision frequency of artificial satellites:The creation of a debris belt[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1978,6:2637-2646.
[53]李怡勇,陈勇,李智,等.对一种利用人造粉尘清除空间碎片新方法的理论分析[J].空间科学学报,2015,1:77-85.
[54]李怡勇,沈怀荣,李智.空间碎皮环境危害及其对策[J].导弹与航天运载技术,2018,6:31-35.
[55]胡敏,范丽,任子轩.空间交通管理研究现状与分析[J].指挥与控制学报,2015,1(3):77-82.
[2]NASA Orbital Debris Program Office.Orbital Debris Quarterly News,Volume 21,Issue 4[J].2017.11.
[3]NASA Orbital Debris Program Office.Orbital Debris Quarterly News,Volume 21,Issue 3[J].2017.08.
[4]Henry Caleb.SES's AMC-9satellite drifting after anomaly[EB/OL].http://spacenews.com/sess-amc-9-satellitedrifting-after-anomaly,2017.
[5]NASA Orbital Debris Program Office.Orbital Debris Quarterly News,Volume 21,Issue 4[J].2017.11.
[6]李怡勇,李智,沈怀荣.地球静止轨道卫星撞击解体的数值模拟[J].上海航天,2011,28(4):47-72
[7]李恒年.地球静止卫星轨道与共位控制技术[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2010.
[8]ESA Space Debris Office.ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report[R].Germany:European Space Operations Centre,2017.
[9]程昊文,汤靖师,刘静,等.大面质比空间碎片在太阳光压和引力作用下的轨道演化[J].空间科学学报,2013,33(2):182-187.
[10]Christopher S.Modeling of the optical observations of a geosynchronous fragmentation event[J].Acta Astronautic,2007,60(8-9):752-762.
[11]王海福,冯顺山,刘有英.空间碎片导论[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.
[12]白显宗.空间目标碰撞预警中的碰撞概率问题研究[D].长沙:国防科学技术大学,2008.
[13]Krisko P H.Long-term orbital environment modeling using EVOLVE 4.0[A].38th Aerospace Sciences Meeting&Exhibit[C].America:AIAA,2000.
[14]Liou J C,Hall D T,Krisko P H,Opiela J N.LEGEND-Athree-dimensional LEO-to-GEO debris evolutionary model[J].Space Debris,2004,34(5):981-986.
[15]Martin C,Walker R,Klinkrad H,The sensitivity of the ESADELTA model[J].Adv.Space Res.2004,34(5)969-974.
[16]Lewis H G,Swinerd G G,Williams N,Gittins G.Damage:Adedicated geo debris model framework[A].Proceedings of the3rd European Conference on Space Debris[C].2001:ESA SP473.
[17]Rossi A,Anselmo L,Pardini C,Jehn R.Valsecchi,The new space debris mitigation(SDM 4.0)long term evolution code[A].Fifth European Conference on Space Debris[C].ESA/ESOC,2009.
[18]Dolado J C,Perez R,Costanzo D,Revelin B,Introducing MEDEE-a new orbital debris evolutionary model[A].Proceedings of the 6th European Conference on Space Debris[C].2013:ESASP-723.
[19]Radtke J,Stoll E.Comparing long-term projections of the space debris environment to real world data-Looking back to1990[J]Acta Astronautic,2016,127:482-490.
[20]Martin C,Lewis H,Walker R.Studying the MEO&GEOspace debris environment with the Integrated Debris Evolution Suite(IDES)model[J].Space Debris,2001.
[21]王若璞.空间碎片环境模型研究[D].郑州:信息工程大学,2010.
[22]Lewis H G,Swinerd G,Willianms N,et al.Damage:A dedicated GEO debris model framework[A].Proceedings of the third European Conference on Space Debris,Vols 1 and 2[C].2001,473:373-378.
[23]Lewis H G,Horbury T.Implications of Prolonged Solar Minimum Conditions for the Space Debris Population[A].6th European Conference on Space Debris[C].2013.
[24]Johnson N L.NASA's new breakup model of evolve 4.0[J].Advances in Space Research,2001,28(9):1377-1384.
[25]沈怀荣,王卫杰,李怡勇,邵琼玲.航天器空间撞击建模与分析[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.
[26]Chafer F,Quarti M,Roll M,et al.Fragmentation studies of simple cubic structures at Fraunhofer EMI[A].The 6th European Conference on Space Debris[C].Darmstadt,Germany,April 22-25,2013.
[27]柳森,兰胜威,李毅,等.航天器解体模型研究综述[J].宇航学报,2010,31(1):14-23.
[28]兰胜威,柳森,李毅,等.航天器解体模型研究的新进展[J].实验流体力学,2014,28(2):73-79.
[29]兰胜威,柳森,任磊生,等.航天器碰撞解体碎片分析软件SFA2.0及其应用[J].航天器环境工程,2016,33(5):463-469.
[30]王东方.空间碎片环境预测算法研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2014.
[31]彭科科.近地轨道空间碎片环境工程模型建模技术研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2015.
[32]张斌斌,王兆魁,张育林.空间物体解体碎片云的长期演化建模与分析[J].中国空间科学技术,2016,36(4):1-8.
[33]李怡勇,深怀荣,李智,等.航天器撞击解体碎片的短期危险评估[J].宇航学报,2010,31(4):1231-1236.
[34]李怡勇,李智,沈怀荣.地球静止轨道卫星撞击解体的数值模拟[J].上海航天,2011,28(4):47-50.
[35]周宵灯,崔村燕,赵蓓蕾,等.卫星爆炸碎片产生过程与影响因素的数值分析[J].兵器装备工程学报,2018,39(5):196-200.
[36]齐跃,李怡勇,来嘉哲.航天器碰撞解体模型分析比较[J].兵工自动化,2018,37(2):74-77.
[37]霍俞蓉.空间碎片接近分析与碰撞概率计算方法研究[D].北京:装备学院,2017.
[38]Hoots F R,Roehrich R L.Models for propagation of NORADelement sets[R].Aerospace Defense Command Peterson AFBCo-dffice of Astrodynamics,1980.
[39]Hoots F R,Schumacher Jr P W,Glover R A.History of analytical orbit modeling in the US space surveillance system[J].Journal of Guidance,Control,and Dynamics,2004,27(2):174-185.
[40]Vallado D,Crawford P,Hujsak R,et al.Revisiting space track report#3[A].AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conference and Exhibit[C].2006:6753.
[41]尚树喜.空间碎片轨道预报筛选策略研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2006.
[42]Vallado D A.An analysis of state vector propagation using differing flight dynamics programs[A].AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Conference[C].Copper Mountain,Colorado,2005.
[43]Fonte J D,Neta B,Sabol C,et al.Comparison of Orbit Propagators in the Research and Development Goddard Trajectory Determination System(R&D GTDS).Part 1.Simulated Data[R].NAVAL Postgraduate School Monterey Cadept of Mathematics,1995.
[44]Cefola P J.A Recursive Formulation for the Tesseral Disturbing Function in Equinoctial Variables[A].AIAA and AAS,Astrodynamics Conference[C].1976.
[45]Cefola P J.Equinoctial Orbit Elements:Application to Artificial Satellite Orbits[A].AIAA and AAS,Astrodynamics Conference[C].1972.
[46]Cefola P J,Folcik Z,Di-Costanzo R,et al.Revisiting the DSST Standalone Orbit Propagator[A].AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting[C].2014.
[47]王大为,汤靖师,刘林.半分析方法在地球卫星100yr尺度长期预报中的性能评估[J].天文学报,2017,58(1):20-45.
[48]王大为.半分析方法及其在地球卫星轨道长期演化中的性能评估[D].南京:南京大学,2016.
[49]Liou J C.Collision activities in the future orbital debris environment[J].Advances in Space Research,2006,38(9):2102-2106.
[50]Liou J C,Kessler D,Matney M,et al.A new approach to evaluate collision probabilities among asteroids,comets,and Kuiper Belt objects[A].Lunar and Planetary Institute Science Conference Abstracts[C].2003.
[51]Kessler D J.Derivation of the collision probability between orbiting objects:The lifetimes of Jupiter's outer moons[J].Icarus,1981,48(1):39-48.
[52]Kessler D J.Collision frequency of artificial satellites:The creation of a debris belt[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1978,6:2637-2646.
[53]李怡勇,陈勇,李智,等.对一种利用人造粉尘清除空间碎片新方法的理论分析[J].空间科学学报,2015,1:77-85.
[54]李怡勇,沈怀荣,李智.空间碎皮环境危害及其对策[J].导弹与航天运载技术,2018,6:31-35.
[55]胡敏,范丽,任子轩.空间交通管理研究现状与分析[J].指挥与控制学报,2015,1(3):77-82.