非农就业对南方集体林区不同规模林农营林轮伐期的影响
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摘要
在中国农村劳动力非农就业不断加速的背景下,探讨非农就业对集体林区不同规模林农营林轮伐期的影响机制,有助于明确不同规模经营主体今后的用材林营林目标和林业在山区未来的经营发展模式,同时为林业规模化经营的合理性提供客观依据。基于劳动力转移新经济学理论,通过对浙江、江西和福建三省450户林农的调查,收集杉木营林的地块投入产出数据,在此基础上,运用Faustmann模型计算规模户与普通户的理论最优轮伐期,运用计量模型分析非农就业对集体林区不同规模林农采伐轮伐期的影响机制。研究结果发现,普通户和规模户的理论最优轮伐期趋同;非农就业的劳动力流失效应造成普通户营林的预期主伐时间显著短于理论最优轮伐期,而规模户非农就业带来的收入效应造成其采伐决策接近于理论最优轮伐期。在农村非农就业不断增加背景下,南方集体林区规模化经营的方式有利于接近最优采伐决策,更适合于培育大径材,增加林业生态和经济效益。
To discuss how off-farm employment affect the harvesting decision-making of households with different scales in China's collective forest area is valuable to clarifying the forest management objectives for households and the trend of forest management ownership in collective forest area. This can give evidence for supporting the large-scale forest ownership under the background of the fast growing of out-migration rural labors in China. Based on the theory of New Economics of Labor Migration(NELM), this paper collected the input-output data at plot level of Chinese fir management through a survey of 50 rural households in Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangxi provinces. Then, it calculated the optimal rotation age of largeand small-scale households with the Faustmann model, and used the econometric model to analyze how off-farm employment affect the harvesting decision-making of households with different scales. The results show that there is no obvious difference of optimal rotation age between large-and small-scale households. The migration effect of off-farm employment causing the expect rotation age is obviously smaller than optimal rotation age for small-scale households; on the contrary, the income effect of off-farm employment caused the expect rotation age is significantly closely related with optimal rotation age for large-scale households.Large-scale ownership is more suitable for raising large timbers and increasing economic and ecological value in collective forest area under the fast growing of out-migration rural labors in China.
To discuss how off-farm employment affect the harvesting decision-making of households with different scales in China's collective forest area is valuable to clarifying the forest management objectives for households and the trend of forest management ownership in collective forest area. This can give evidence for supporting the large-scale forest ownership under the background of the fast growing of out-migration rural labors in China. Based on the theory of New Economics of Labor Migration(NELM), this paper collected the input-output data at plot level of Chinese fir management through a survey of 50 rural households in Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangxi provinces. Then, it calculated the optimal rotation age of largeand small-scale households with the Faustmann model, and used the econometric model to analyze how off-farm employment affect the harvesting decision-making of households with different scales. The results show that there is no obvious difference of optimal rotation age between large-and small-scale households. The migration effect of off-farm employment causing the expect rotation age is obviously smaller than optimal rotation age for small-scale households; on the contrary, the income effect of off-farm employment caused the expect rotation age is significantly closely related with optimal rotation age for large-scale households.Large-scale ownership is more suitable for raising large timbers and increasing economic and ecological value in collective forest area under the fast growing of out-migration rural labors in China.
引文
[1]侯一蕾,王昌海,吴静,等.南方集体林区林地规模化经营的理论探析.北京林业大学学报:社会科学版,2013,12(4):1-6.[HOU Y L,WANG C H,WU J,et al.A theoretical analysis of forestland scale management in collective forest areas of south China.Journal of Beijing Forestry University:Social Science,2013,12(4):1-6.]
[2]BUTLER B J,LEATHERBERRY E C.America's family forest owners.Journal of Forestry,2004,102(7):4-9.
[3]ZHANG Y,ZHANG D,SCHELHAS J.Small-scale non-industrial private forest ownership in the United States:Rational and implications for forest management.Silva Fennica,2005,39(3):443-454.
[4]廖文梅,孔凡斌,林颖.劳动力转移程度对农户林地投入产出水平的影响:基于江西省1178户农户数据的实证分析.林业科学,2015,51(12):87-95.[LIAO W M,KONG F B,LIN Y.The impact of labor transfer level on input and output of household forestland-based production:A empirical analysis based on 1178 households in Jiangxi province.Science Silvae Sinicae,2015,51(12):87-95.]
[5]国家统计局.2016年农民工监测调查报告.北京:国家统计局,2017.[National Bureau of Statistics of China.China Migrant Workers Monitoring and Survey Report in 2016.Beijing:National Bureau of Statistics of China,2017.]
[6]柯水发,王亚,孔祥智,等.新型林业经营主体培育存在的问题及对策.林业经济问题,2014,34(6):504-509.[KE S F,WANG Y,KONG X Z,et al.The problems and countermeasures of cultivating new forestry management entities:Based on the survey in Zhejiang,Jiangxi and Anhui province.Issues of Forestry Economy,2014,34(6):504-509.]
[7]姚洋.非农就业结构与土地租赁市场的发育.中国农村观察,1999,(2):18-23.[YAO Y.Non-agricultural employment structure and development of land lease market.China Rural Survey,1999,(2):18-23.]
[8]KUNG K S.Off-farm labor markets and the emergence of land rental markets in rural China.Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,30(2):395-414.
[9]QUISUMBING A,MCNIVEN S.Moving forward,looking back:The impact of migration and remittances on assets,consumption,and credit constraints in the rural Philippines.The Journal of Development Studies,2010,46(1):91-113.
[10]纪月清,王亚楠,钟甫宁.我国农户农机需求及其结构研究:基于省级层面数据的探讨.农业技术经济,2013,(7):19-26.[JI Y Q,WANG Y N,ZHONG F N.Research on agricultural machinery demand and its structure in China:Based on provincial level data.Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2013,(7):19-26.]
[11]MOCHEBELELE M T,WINTER N A.Migrant labor and farm technical efficiency in Lesotho.World Development,2000,28(1):143-153.
[12]钱文荣,郑黎义.劳动力外出务工对农户农业生产的影响:研究现状与展望.中国农村观察,2011,(1):31-37.[QIAN W R,ZHENG L Y.The impacts of labor migration on farm households'agricultural production:Literature review and future issues.China Rural Survey,2011,(1):31-37.]
[13]ADAMS R H J,ALFREDOl C.Remittances,household expenditure and investment in Guatemala.World Development,2010,38(11):1626-1641.
[14]BRAUW A D,ROZELLE S.Migration and household investment in rural China.China Economic Review,2008,19(2):320-335.
[15]XIE Y,GONG P C,HAN X,et al.The effect of collective forestland tenure reform in China:Does land parcelization reduce forest management intensity?.Journal of Forest Economics,2014,20(2):126-140.
[16]FAUSTMANN M.Calculation of the value which forest land and immature in stands posses for forestry.Republished with permission from Commonwealth Forestry Association.Journal of Forest Economics,1849,1(1):7-44.
[17]ANGELSEN A,KAIMOWITZ D.Rethinking the causes of deforestation:Lessons from economic models.World Bank Research Observer,1999,14(1):73-98.
[18]ELLIS F.The determinants of rural livelihood diversification in developing countries.Agriculture Economics,2000,51:289-302.
[19]周国模,郭仁鉴,韦新良.浙江省杉木人工林生长模型及主伐年龄的确定.浙江农林大学学报,2001,8(3):219-222.[ZHOU G M,GUO R J,WEI X L.Growth model and cutting age of Chinese fir planted forest in Zhejiang province.Journal of Zhejiang A&F University,2001,8(3):219-222.]
[20]杨雪春,刘东兰,郑小贤.基于GIS的森林采伐辅助决策系统研究.西北林学院学报,2015,30(4):217-222.[YANGX C,LIU D L,ZHENG X X.Decision and development of support system for deforestation based on GIS.Journal of Northwest Forestry University,2015,30(4):217-222.]
[21]姜昕,王秀娟.森林的最优采伐决策模型:一个新的林业经济政策分析框架.林业科学,2013,49(9):178-185.[JIANG X,WANG X J.Optimal harvest decision model for the forest:A new analysis framework to Chinese forestry economic policy.Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2013,49(9):178-185.]
[22]张英,宋维明.集体林权制度改革对农户采伐行为的影响.林业科学,2012,48(7):161-169.[ZHANG Y,SONG WM.Effect of collective forest tenure reform on people's harvesting behaviors.Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2012,48(7):161-169.]
[23]朱臻,沈月琴,徐志刚,等.森林经营主体的碳汇供给潜力差异及影响因素研究.自然资源学报,2014,29(12):2013-2022.[ZHU Z,SHEN Y Q,XU Z G,et al.Research on the carbon supply potential capacity difference and its impact factors of forest management subjects.Journal of Natural Resource,2014,29(12):2013-2022.]
[24]STAIBACK G A,ALAVALAPATI R R.Economic analysis of slash pine forest carbon sequestration in the southern U S.Journal of Forest Economics,2002,8(2):105-117.
[25]STARK O,BLOOM D E.The new economics of labor migration.American Economic Review,1985,75(2):173-178.
[26]FENG S.Land rental,off-farm employment and technical efficiency of farm households in Jiangxi province,China.NJAS-Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences,2008,55(4):363-378.
[27]RUDEL T K,COOMES O T,MORAN E,et al.Forest transitions:Towards a global understanding of land use change.Global Environmental Change,2005,15(1):23-31.
[28]ZIMMERER K S.Soil erosion and labor shortages in the Andes with special reference to Bolivia,1953-1991:Implications for"conservation-with-development".World Development,1999,21(10):1659-1675.
[29]刘承芳,樊胜根.农户农业生产性投资影响因素研究:对江苏省六个县市的实证分析.中国农村观察,2002,(4):34-42.[LIU C F,FAN S G.A study on the factors affecting farmer's agricultural production investment.China Rural Survey,2002,(4):34-42.]
[30]OSENI G,WINTERS P.Rural nonfarm activities and agricultural crop production in Nigeria.Agricultural Economics,2009,40(2):189-201.
[31]国家林业局.第八次森林资源清查.北京:国家林业局,2015.[State Forestry Adminstration.China Forest Resource Statistics(8th National Forest Inventory).Beijing:State Forestry Administration,2015.]
[32]陈则生.杉木人工林经济成熟龄的研究.林业经济问题,2010,30(1):22-26.[CHEN Z S.The research on age at economic maturity of Chinese fir plantations.Issues of Forestry Economics,2010,30(1):22-26.]
[33]朱臻,沈月琴,吴伟光,等.碳汇目标下农户森林经营最优决策及碳汇供给能力:基于浙江和江西两省调查.生态学报,2013,33(8):2577-2585.[ZHU Z,SHEN Y Q,WU W G,et al.Household optimal forest management decision and carbon supply:Case from Zhejiang and Jiangxi provinces.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(8):2577-2585.]
(1)根据2015年农民人均可支配收入指标进行分层抽样。本文选取的11个样本县平均森林覆盖率在74.9%左右,其中浙江省5个样本县市平均森林覆盖率73%,江西省3个样本点平均森林覆盖率74%,福建样本县森林覆盖率79 %。所选样本县市皆为重点林区和用材林基地。
(2)对于规模户与普通户界定各地区有很大的差异,笔者采用的此类界定规模户与普通户的方法主要考虑到不同地区区分规模户的面积指标存在一定差异,很难以单独一个面积数量指标来衡量规模户和普通户区别。
(3)测算林地期望值需要对应不同胸径的木材价格,本文收集了2015年案例省木材平均价格。三省的木材市场价格基本类似,保持在胸径6 cm以下300元·m-3;6~8 cm之间为800元·m-3;8~12 cm之间为850元·m-3;12~16 cm之间为900元·m-3;16~20 cm之间为900元·m-3;20 cm以上为1100元·m-3。
(4)对于如何确定农户是否非农就业,不同研究和统计有不同的分类方法,主要根据农户是否有非农收入来源来区分。从本次农户调查来看,一个月以内的非农就业农户一般选择在离家距离较近的地区或者就在本村以零工为主,因此如果将这部分农户归为非农就业农户就无法真实识别出非农就业对营林劳动力带来的时间分配效应。因此本文选择人均非农就业时间持续在一个月以上作为非农就业户,此类农户在三省往往与工作单位签订劳动合同,属于相对正式、稳定的非农就业户。
(5)需要注意的是表2中按照成本投入阶段划分的成本总和不等于单位面积总成本,因为不包括地租成本。规模户的地租价格以最大块林地的流转价格来计算,而普通户的地租价格则以所在村的林地平均价格作为影子价格来计算。
(6)劳动力总成本包括自用工和雇工成本,其中自用工成本根据当地营林劳动力在某营林环节的市场价格作为影子价格测算得到。劳动力价格随着营林环节有所区别,2015年浙江的造林抚育平均工价为140元/工,采伐平均工价保持在180 元/工;福建的造林和抚育平均工价为140元/工,采伐平均工价保持在150元/工;江西的造林和抚育的平均工价为100 元/工,采伐平均工价保持在120元/工。
[2]BUTLER B J,LEATHERBERRY E C.America's family forest owners.Journal of Forestry,2004,102(7):4-9.
[3]ZHANG Y,ZHANG D,SCHELHAS J.Small-scale non-industrial private forest ownership in the United States:Rational and implications for forest management.Silva Fennica,2005,39(3):443-454.
[4]廖文梅,孔凡斌,林颖.劳动力转移程度对农户林地投入产出水平的影响:基于江西省1178户农户数据的实证分析.林业科学,2015,51(12):87-95.[LIAO W M,KONG F B,LIN Y.The impact of labor transfer level on input and output of household forestland-based production:A empirical analysis based on 1178 households in Jiangxi province.Science Silvae Sinicae,2015,51(12):87-95.]
[5]国家统计局.2016年农民工监测调查报告.北京:国家统计局,2017.[National Bureau of Statistics of China.China Migrant Workers Monitoring and Survey Report in 2016.Beijing:National Bureau of Statistics of China,2017.]
[6]柯水发,王亚,孔祥智,等.新型林业经营主体培育存在的问题及对策.林业经济问题,2014,34(6):504-509.[KE S F,WANG Y,KONG X Z,et al.The problems and countermeasures of cultivating new forestry management entities:Based on the survey in Zhejiang,Jiangxi and Anhui province.Issues of Forestry Economy,2014,34(6):504-509.]
[7]姚洋.非农就业结构与土地租赁市场的发育.中国农村观察,1999,(2):18-23.[YAO Y.Non-agricultural employment structure and development of land lease market.China Rural Survey,1999,(2):18-23.]
[8]KUNG K S.Off-farm labor markets and the emergence of land rental markets in rural China.Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,30(2):395-414.
[9]QUISUMBING A,MCNIVEN S.Moving forward,looking back:The impact of migration and remittances on assets,consumption,and credit constraints in the rural Philippines.The Journal of Development Studies,2010,46(1):91-113.
[10]纪月清,王亚楠,钟甫宁.我国农户农机需求及其结构研究:基于省级层面数据的探讨.农业技术经济,2013,(7):19-26.[JI Y Q,WANG Y N,ZHONG F N.Research on agricultural machinery demand and its structure in China:Based on provincial level data.Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2013,(7):19-26.]
[11]MOCHEBELELE M T,WINTER N A.Migrant labor and farm technical efficiency in Lesotho.World Development,2000,28(1):143-153.
[12]钱文荣,郑黎义.劳动力外出务工对农户农业生产的影响:研究现状与展望.中国农村观察,2011,(1):31-37.[QIAN W R,ZHENG L Y.The impacts of labor migration on farm households'agricultural production:Literature review and future issues.China Rural Survey,2011,(1):31-37.]
[13]ADAMS R H J,ALFREDOl C.Remittances,household expenditure and investment in Guatemala.World Development,2010,38(11):1626-1641.
[14]BRAUW A D,ROZELLE S.Migration and household investment in rural China.China Economic Review,2008,19(2):320-335.
[15]XIE Y,GONG P C,HAN X,et al.The effect of collective forestland tenure reform in China:Does land parcelization reduce forest management intensity?.Journal of Forest Economics,2014,20(2):126-140.
[16]FAUSTMANN M.Calculation of the value which forest land and immature in stands posses for forestry.Republished with permission from Commonwealth Forestry Association.Journal of Forest Economics,1849,1(1):7-44.
[17]ANGELSEN A,KAIMOWITZ D.Rethinking the causes of deforestation:Lessons from economic models.World Bank Research Observer,1999,14(1):73-98.
[18]ELLIS F.The determinants of rural livelihood diversification in developing countries.Agriculture Economics,2000,51:289-302.
[19]周国模,郭仁鉴,韦新良.浙江省杉木人工林生长模型及主伐年龄的确定.浙江农林大学学报,2001,8(3):219-222.[ZHOU G M,GUO R J,WEI X L.Growth model and cutting age of Chinese fir planted forest in Zhejiang province.Journal of Zhejiang A&F University,2001,8(3):219-222.]
[20]杨雪春,刘东兰,郑小贤.基于GIS的森林采伐辅助决策系统研究.西北林学院学报,2015,30(4):217-222.[YANGX C,LIU D L,ZHENG X X.Decision and development of support system for deforestation based on GIS.Journal of Northwest Forestry University,2015,30(4):217-222.]
[21]姜昕,王秀娟.森林的最优采伐决策模型:一个新的林业经济政策分析框架.林业科学,2013,49(9):178-185.[JIANG X,WANG X J.Optimal harvest decision model for the forest:A new analysis framework to Chinese forestry economic policy.Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2013,49(9):178-185.]
[22]张英,宋维明.集体林权制度改革对农户采伐行为的影响.林业科学,2012,48(7):161-169.[ZHANG Y,SONG WM.Effect of collective forest tenure reform on people's harvesting behaviors.Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2012,48(7):161-169.]
[23]朱臻,沈月琴,徐志刚,等.森林经营主体的碳汇供给潜力差异及影响因素研究.自然资源学报,2014,29(12):2013-2022.[ZHU Z,SHEN Y Q,XU Z G,et al.Research on the carbon supply potential capacity difference and its impact factors of forest management subjects.Journal of Natural Resource,2014,29(12):2013-2022.]
[24]STAIBACK G A,ALAVALAPATI R R.Economic analysis of slash pine forest carbon sequestration in the southern U S.Journal of Forest Economics,2002,8(2):105-117.
[25]STARK O,BLOOM D E.The new economics of labor migration.American Economic Review,1985,75(2):173-178.
[26]FENG S.Land rental,off-farm employment and technical efficiency of farm households in Jiangxi province,China.NJAS-Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences,2008,55(4):363-378.
[27]RUDEL T K,COOMES O T,MORAN E,et al.Forest transitions:Towards a global understanding of land use change.Global Environmental Change,2005,15(1):23-31.
[28]ZIMMERER K S.Soil erosion and labor shortages in the Andes with special reference to Bolivia,1953-1991:Implications for"conservation-with-development".World Development,1999,21(10):1659-1675.
[29]刘承芳,樊胜根.农户农业生产性投资影响因素研究:对江苏省六个县市的实证分析.中国农村观察,2002,(4):34-42.[LIU C F,FAN S G.A study on the factors affecting farmer's agricultural production investment.China Rural Survey,2002,(4):34-42.]
[30]OSENI G,WINTERS P.Rural nonfarm activities and agricultural crop production in Nigeria.Agricultural Economics,2009,40(2):189-201.
[31]国家林业局.第八次森林资源清查.北京:国家林业局,2015.[State Forestry Adminstration.China Forest Resource Statistics(8th National Forest Inventory).Beijing:State Forestry Administration,2015.]
[32]陈则生.杉木人工林经济成熟龄的研究.林业经济问题,2010,30(1):22-26.[CHEN Z S.The research on age at economic maturity of Chinese fir plantations.Issues of Forestry Economics,2010,30(1):22-26.]
[33]朱臻,沈月琴,吴伟光,等.碳汇目标下农户森林经营最优决策及碳汇供给能力:基于浙江和江西两省调查.生态学报,2013,33(8):2577-2585.[ZHU Z,SHEN Y Q,WU W G,et al.Household optimal forest management decision and carbon supply:Case from Zhejiang and Jiangxi provinces.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(8):2577-2585.]
(1)根据2015年农民人均可支配收入指标进行分层抽样。本文选取的11个样本县平均森林覆盖率在74.9%左右,其中浙江省5个样本县市平均森林覆盖率73%,江西省3个样本点平均森林覆盖率74%,福建样本县森林覆盖率79 %。所选样本县市皆为重点林区和用材林基地。
(2)对于规模户与普通户界定各地区有很大的差异,笔者采用的此类界定规模户与普通户的方法主要考虑到不同地区区分规模户的面积指标存在一定差异,很难以单独一个面积数量指标来衡量规模户和普通户区别。
(3)测算林地期望值需要对应不同胸径的木材价格,本文收集了2015年案例省木材平均价格。三省的木材市场价格基本类似,保持在胸径6 cm以下300元·m-3;6~8 cm之间为800元·m-3;8~12 cm之间为850元·m-3;12~16 cm之间为900元·m-3;16~20 cm之间为900元·m-3;20 cm以上为1100元·m-3。
(4)对于如何确定农户是否非农就业,不同研究和统计有不同的分类方法,主要根据农户是否有非农收入来源来区分。从本次农户调查来看,一个月以内的非农就业农户一般选择在离家距离较近的地区或者就在本村以零工为主,因此如果将这部分农户归为非农就业农户就无法真实识别出非农就业对营林劳动力带来的时间分配效应。因此本文选择人均非农就业时间持续在一个月以上作为非农就业户,此类农户在三省往往与工作单位签订劳动合同,属于相对正式、稳定的非农就业户。
(5)需要注意的是表2中按照成本投入阶段划分的成本总和不等于单位面积总成本,因为不包括地租成本。规模户的地租价格以最大块林地的流转价格来计算,而普通户的地租价格则以所在村的林地平均价格作为影子价格来计算。
(6)劳动力总成本包括自用工和雇工成本,其中自用工成本根据当地营林劳动力在某营林环节的市场价格作为影子价格测算得到。劳动力价格随着营林环节有所区别,2015年浙江的造林抚育平均工价为140元/工,采伐平均工价保持在180 元/工;福建的造林和抚育平均工价为140元/工,采伐平均工价保持在150元/工;江西的造林和抚育的平均工价为100 元/工,采伐平均工价保持在120元/工。