基于驾驶模拟实验的山区高速公路运行速度建模
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摘要
提出以连续变化的道路上下游设计参数为自变量的运行速度曲线建模方法.研究基于高仿真驾驶模拟实验采集山区高速公路自由流车速,提取运行速度曲线,以当前位置上下游的坡度、曲率、超高和动态视距值为模型自变量,构建通用的运行速度预测模型.模型结果表明路段的平均坡度、平均曲率、最大超高值以及是否存在反向曲线会显著降低当前位置的运行速度,且下游路段越曲折,驾驶员越倾向于提前减速.通用运行速度回归模型的R~2为0.74,模型训练集和测试集的预测平均绝对误差均小于3 km·h~(-1).研究提出的运行速度曲线建模方法充分利用驾驶模拟器高精度速度数据的优势,提供了一种面向连续车速数据的建模思路,验证了通用运行速度预测模型的有效性.
A new modeling approach based on frequent and equidistant speed measurements was proposed. Driving simulation experiments were carried out to collect free-flow speed data on mountainous freeways. Operating speed profile was derived and grade, curvature, super-elevation, and dynamic sight distance variables extracted from upstream and downstream segments were used to estimate a generous operating speed prediction model. Results showed that as the expected, the average grade and curvature of the segment, the maximum super-elevation and the existence of reverse curve decreased the drivers' speed and the curvature differential between the downstream and upstream segment also reduce the speed. The adjusted R~2 of the operating speed model was 0.74 and the averaged absolute prediction error for training set and testing set were both under 3 km·h~(-1). This study took the advantage of high resolution speed data collected from driving simulator and provided a new methodology to model continuous speed data. The results indicated the effectiveness and capability of the proposed modeling strategy.
A new modeling approach based on frequent and equidistant speed measurements was proposed. Driving simulation experiments were carried out to collect free-flow speed data on mountainous freeways. Operating speed profile was derived and grade, curvature, super-elevation, and dynamic sight distance variables extracted from upstream and downstream segments were used to estimate a generous operating speed prediction model. Results showed that as the expected, the average grade and curvature of the segment, the maximum super-elevation and the existence of reverse curve decreased the drivers' speed and the curvature differential between the downstream and upstream segment also reduce the speed. The adjusted R~2 of the operating speed model was 0.74 and the averaged absolute prediction error for training set and testing set were both under 3 km·h~(-1). This study took the advantage of high resolution speed data collected from driving simulator and provided a new methodology to model continuous speed data. The results indicated the effectiveness and capability of the proposed modeling strategy.
引文
[1] 汪双杰,郭腾峰,刘建蓓.中国公路运行速度体系与工程应用技术研究[J].中国公路学报,2010(S2):1.WANG Shuangjie,GUO Tengfeng,LIU Jianpei.Research on china highway operating speed system and engineering application technology[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2010(S2):1.
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[5] 林声,郭忠印,周小焕.公路线形空间几何特性模型及其应用[J].中国公路学报,2010(S2):47.LIN Sheng,GUO Zhongyin,ZHOU Xiaohuan.Models of highway alignment spatial geometric properties and their applications[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2010(S2):47
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[9] 徐进,罗庆,毛嘉川.考虑弯道几何要素和交通量影响的汽车行驶速度预测模型[J].中国公路学报,2012,25(5):47.XU Jin,LUO Qing,MAO Jiachuan.Speed prediction model of car/truck considering the effect of curve geometric features and traffic volume[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2012,25(5):47
[10] MEDINA A M F,TARKO A P.Speed changes in the vicinity of horizontal curves on two-lane rural roads[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering,2007,133(4):215.
[11] MCFADDEN J,ELEFTERIADOU L.Evaluating horizontal alignment design consistency of two-lane rural highways:Development of new procedure[J].Transportation Research Record:Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2000,1737:9.
[12] ALFONSO M,LUIGI P,FRANCESCO G,et al.Prediction of drivers' speed behavior on rural motorways based on an instrumented vehicle study[J].Transportation Research Record:Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2014,2434:52.
[13] WANG X,WANG T,TARKO A,et al.The influence of combined alignments on lateral acceleration on mountainous freeways:a driving simulator study[J].Accident Analysis & Prevention,2015,76:110.
[14] NIE B,HASSAN Y.Modeling driver speed behavior on horizontal curves of different road classifications[C]// Proceedings of 86th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board.Washington D C:Transportation Research Board,2007:1-16.
[2] FITZPATRICK K,CARLSON P,BREWER M,et al.Design speed,operating speed,and posted speed limit practices[C]// Proceedings of 82th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board.Washington D C:Transportation Research Board,2003:1-20.
[3] 华杰工程咨询有限公司.公路项目安全性评价指南:JTG/T B05—2004[S].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.Chelbi Engineering Consultants Inc.Guide lines for safety audit of highway:JTG/T B05—2004[S].Beijing:China Communications Press,2004.
[4] 华杰工程咨询有限公司.公路项目安全性评价规范:JTG B05—2015[S].北京:人民交通出版社,2016.Chelbi Engineering Consultants Inc.Specifications for highway safety audit:JTG B05—2015[S].Beijing:China Communications Press,2016.
[5] 林声,郭忠印,周小焕.公路线形空间几何特性模型及其应用[J].中国公路学报,2010(S2):47.LIN Sheng,GUO Zhongyin,ZHOU Xiaohuan.Models of highway alignment spatial geometric properties and their applications[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2010(S2):47
[6] HASSAN Y,SARHAN M.Modeling operating speed:synthesis report[M].Washington D C:Transportation Research Board of the National Academies,2011.
[7] LAMM R,CHOURIERI E M,HAYWARD J C,et al.Possible design procedure to promote design consistency in highway geometric design on two lane rural roads[J].Transportation Research Record,1988,1195:111.
[8] FITZPATRICK K,MIAOU S P,BREWER M,et al.Exploration of the relationships between operating speed and roadway features on tangent sections[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering,2005,131(4):513.
[9] 徐进,罗庆,毛嘉川.考虑弯道几何要素和交通量影响的汽车行驶速度预测模型[J].中国公路学报,2012,25(5):47.XU Jin,LUO Qing,MAO Jiachuan.Speed prediction model of car/truck considering the effect of curve geometric features and traffic volume[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2012,25(5):47
[10] MEDINA A M F,TARKO A P.Speed changes in the vicinity of horizontal curves on two-lane rural roads[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering,2007,133(4):215.
[11] MCFADDEN J,ELEFTERIADOU L.Evaluating horizontal alignment design consistency of two-lane rural highways:Development of new procedure[J].Transportation Research Record:Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2000,1737:9.
[12] ALFONSO M,LUIGI P,FRANCESCO G,et al.Prediction of drivers' speed behavior on rural motorways based on an instrumented vehicle study[J].Transportation Research Record:Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2014,2434:52.
[13] WANG X,WANG T,TARKO A,et al.The influence of combined alignments on lateral acceleration on mountainous freeways:a driving simulator study[J].Accident Analysis & Prevention,2015,76:110.
[14] NIE B,HASSAN Y.Modeling driver speed behavior on horizontal curves of different road classifications[C]// Proceedings of 86th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board.Washington D C:Transportation Research Board,2007:1-16.