精准扶贫政策对农村贫困居民家庭消费的影响——基于赣南苏区的入户调查数据分析
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摘要
近年来,精准扶贫政策促进了农村贫困居民家庭收入的快速增长。在收入增长之后,该政策必然会对农村贫困居民家庭的消费行为和消费结构产生影响。结合江西省某县315户的入户调查数据,并将数据分为扶贫组和控制组,运用倾向得分匹配法(PSM)对精准扶贫政策对农村贫困居民消费的影响进行估计。研究发现:精准扶贫政策对农村贫困居民消费影响显著,其中居住支出和教育支出的促进作用最大,分别提高31.3%和47.7%;精准扶贫政策对通讯支出、其他支出和衣着支出的影响程度略低;对食物支出和交通支出的影响程度最小。在精准扶贫政策深入推进的过程中,需要重点挖掘帮助贫困户增收、制订可持续脱贫效果的政策,淘汰无效率的扶贫政策,降低扶贫政策成本。同时实施贫困户精准扶贫政策分类管理,加强不同类型精准扶贫政策效果评估,密切关注贫困群体消费需求的变化,进一步精准施策。
In recent years,the precisely targeted poverty alleviation policy has promoted the fast growth of the family income of the rural poor residents.After the increase of their income,this policy will surely exert an influence on the consumption behavior and consumption structure of the households of rural poor residents.This paper makes use of the household survey data of 315 households in one county of Jiangxi province and divides them into two groups,namely,the poverty relief group and the control group,then it employs the propensity score matching(PSM) method to estimate the effect of the precisely targeted poverty alleviation policy on the consumption of rural poor residents.The findings show that the precisely targeted poverty alleviation policy has a significant impact on the consumption of rural poor residents,of which,the promotion effect on the living expenses and education expenditure is the greatest,with an increase by 31.3% and 47.7% respectively.The precisely targeted poverty alleviation policy has a slightly lower degree of impact on communication expenditures,other expenditures,and clothing expenses,and its impact on food expenditure and transportation expenditure is the smallest.During the process of in-depth promotion of the precisely targeted poverty alleviation policy,it is necessary to focus on the policies that can help poor households to increase income and achieve sustainable poverty alleviation,eliminate the inefficient poverty alleviation policies,and reduce the cost of poverty alleviation policies.Meanwhile,it is also necessary to exercise classified management of such policies,strengthen the effect evaluation on different targeted poverty alleviation policies,pay close attention to the changes of the consumption demand of the poverty group,so as to further carry out the precisely targeted poverty alleviation policy
In recent years,the precisely targeted poverty alleviation policy has promoted the fast growth of the family income of the rural poor residents.After the increase of their income,this policy will surely exert an influence on the consumption behavior and consumption structure of the households of rural poor residents.This paper makes use of the household survey data of 315 households in one county of Jiangxi province and divides them into two groups,namely,the poverty relief group and the control group,then it employs the propensity score matching(PSM) method to estimate the effect of the precisely targeted poverty alleviation policy on the consumption of rural poor residents.The findings show that the precisely targeted poverty alleviation policy has a significant impact on the consumption of rural poor residents,of which,the promotion effect on the living expenses and education expenditure is the greatest,with an increase by 31.3% and 47.7% respectively.The precisely targeted poverty alleviation policy has a slightly lower degree of impact on communication expenditures,other expenditures,and clothing expenses,and its impact on food expenditure and transportation expenditure is the smallest.During the process of in-depth promotion of the precisely targeted poverty alleviation policy,it is necessary to focus on the policies that can help poor households to increase income and achieve sustainable poverty alleviation,eliminate the inefficient poverty alleviation policies,and reduce the cost of poverty alleviation policies.Meanwhile,it is also necessary to exercise classified management of such policies,strengthen the effect evaluation on different targeted poverty alleviation policies,pay close attention to the changes of the consumption demand of the poverty group,so as to further carry out the precisely targeted poverty alleviation policy
引文
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[2]李佳路.扶贫项目的减贫效果评估:对30个国家扶贫开发重点县调查[J].改革,2010,(8):125-132.
[3]李俊杰,李海鹏.民族地区农户多维贫困测量与扶贫政策创新研究---以湖北省长阳土家族自治县为例[J].中南民族大学学报(人文社会科学版),2013,(3):127-132.
[4]李志萌,张宜红.革命老区产业扶贫模式、存在问题及破解路径---以赣南老区为例[J].江西社会科学,2016,(7):61-67.
[5]汪三贵,张雁,杨龙,梁晓敏.连片特困地区扶贫项目到户问题研究?---基于乌蒙山片区三省六县的调研[J].中州学刊,2015,(3):68-72.
[6]肖云,严茉.我国农村贫困人口对扶贫政策满意度影响因素研究[J].贵州社会科学,2012,(5):107-112.
[7]张琳,童翔宇,杨毅.湘鄂渝黔边民族地区精准扶贫效益评价及增进策略---基于结构方程模型的实证分析[J].贵州民族研究,2017,(1):177-180.
[8]姚洪心,王喜意.劳动力流动、教育水平、扶贫政策与农村收入差距--一个基于multinomial logit模型的微观实证研究[J].管理世界,2009,(9):80-90.
[9]高幸.我国扶贫政策对农村收入分配的影响研究[J].时代金融,2017,(8):118-119.
[10]胡晗,司亚飞,王立剑.产业扶贫政策对贫困户生计策略和收入的影响--来自陕西省的经验证据[J].中国农村经济,2018,(1):78-89.
[11]陈清华,董晓林,朱敏杰.村级互助资金扶贫效果分析---基于宁夏地区的调查数据[J].农业技术经济,2017,(2):51-60.
[12]徐绿敏.政府转移支出对农村居民消费:挤出还是挤入效应--基于动态面板模型的GMM分析[J].江西社会科学,2013,(2):53-56.
[13]袁华萍.我国转移性支出对农村居民消费水平的影响研究---库兹涅茨“倒U”假说检验[J].安徽农业大学学报(社会科学版),2015,(2):17-20.
[14]Rosenbaum P.,Rubin D..The Central Role of the Propensity Score in Observational Studies for Causal Effects[J].Biometrika,1983,70(1):41-55.
[15]Dehejia R.,Wahba S..Propensity Score-Matching Methods for Non-experimental Causal Studies[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2006,84(1):151-161.
[16]Lewbel A..Estimation of Average Treatment?Effects Based on Propensity Scores[J].Econometrica,2003,75(2):358-377.
[17]Becker S.O.,Ichino A..Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Based on Propersity Scores[J].The Stata Journal,2002,2(4):358-377.
[18]Efron B.,Tibshirani R..An Introduction to the Bootstrap[M].London:Chapman&Hall Press,1993:28.
[19]李江一,李涵.消费信贷如何影响家庭消费?[J].经济评论,2017,(2):113-126.
[20]Leuven E.,Sianesi B..Psmatch2:Stata Module to Perform Full Mahalanobis and Propensity Score Matching,Common Support Graphing,and Covariate Imbalance Testing[EB/OL].http://ideas.repec.org/c/boc/bocode/s432001.html,2003.