基于模糊理论的智能电网信息通信系统风险评估
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摘要
针对智能电网信息通信系统风险评估指标间的非可加性问题,给出一种基于模糊理论的智能电网信息通信系统风险评估方案。首先,建立智能电网信息通信系统风险评估指标体系;其次,采用主观层次分析法及客观熵值法计算单风险指标的权重,再根据权重计算各层指标集合的模糊测度;然后,根据风险指标相对于风险等级的隶属度构建综合评价矩阵,通过模糊积分向量不断融合指标集的评估值;最后,智能电网信息通信系统的综合风险评估值可以按照最大隶属度的原则得到。实例验证结果表明,该方案能较好解决风险评估指标间的非可加性问题,对智能电网信息通信系统能有效进行风险分析和预测。
In order to solve the problem of non-additivity among risk evaluation indexes in smart grid information communication system,a comprehensive risk evaluation model based on fuzzy theory of information communication system in smart grid was proposed.For the proposed model,firstly the risk evaluation index system of smart grid information and communication system was built,and the subjective analytic hierarchy process and the objective entropy method were adopted to calculate weight of the single risk index,then the fuzzy measure of each layer index set was calculated according to the weight.At the same time,the comprehensive evaluation matrix was constructed according to the membership of the risk index relative to the risk level.The evaluation value of the indicator set is constantly integrated by the fuzzy integral vector,and the comprehensive risk evaluation value of smart grid information communication system can be obtained according to the principle of maximum membership.Finally,an example analysis of the proposed model shows that the proposed model can solve the non-additivity problem among the indexes well,and it can carry out effective risk analysis and prediction for the smart grid information communication system.
In order to solve the problem of non-additivity among risk evaluation indexes in smart grid information communication system,a comprehensive risk evaluation model based on fuzzy theory of information communication system in smart grid was proposed.For the proposed model,firstly the risk evaluation index system of smart grid information and communication system was built,and the subjective analytic hierarchy process and the objective entropy method were adopted to calculate weight of the single risk index,then the fuzzy measure of each layer index set was calculated according to the weight.At the same time,the comprehensive evaluation matrix was constructed according to the membership of the risk index relative to the risk level.The evaluation value of the indicator set is constantly integrated by the fuzzy integral vector,and the comprehensive risk evaluation value of smart grid information communication system can be obtained according to the principle of maximum membership.Finally,an example analysis of the proposed model shows that the proposed model can solve the non-additivity problem among the indexes well,and it can carry out effective risk analysis and prediction for the smart grid information communication system.
引文
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[11]邓红雷,戴栋,李述文.基于层次分析-熵权组合法的架空输电线路综合运行风险评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(1):28-34.
[12]张娟,童晓阳,姜建伟.基于点渗流和熵权法的连锁故障路径风险评估[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2018,30(2):20-25.
[13]黄文婧,李华强,杨植雅,等.基于模糊聚类排序及状态均匀性的电网安全性风险评估[J].电测与仪表,2018,55(9):21-26.
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[15]边莉,边晨源.采用交叉熵支持向量机和模糊积分的电网故障诊断[J].电机与控制学报,2016,20(2):112-120.
[2]李培恺.分布式协同控制模式下配电网信息物理系统安全性能研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2018.
[3]王梓博,穆云飞,王宇飞,等.考虑多代理供电恢复系统通信失效的配电网CPS风险评估[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(17):51-58.
[4]高贺,孙莹,李可军,等.一种新型智能配电网风险评估模型[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(6):142-147.
[5]王汪兵,王先培,尤泽樟,等.电力通信网关键节点辨识方法研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018,46(1):44-49.
[6]李保杰,刘岩,李洪杰,等.从乌克兰停电事故看电力信息系统安全问题[J].中国电力,2017,50(5):71-77.
[7]Green R C,Wang L,Alam M.Applications and trends of high performance computing for electric power systems:Focusing on smart grid[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2013,4(2):922-931.
[8]叶夏明,文福栓,尚金城,等.电力系统中信息物理安全风险传播机制[J].电网技术,2015,39(11):3072-3079.
[9]汤奕,韩啸,吴英俊,等.考虑通信系统的电力系统综合脆弱性评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(23):6066-6074.
[10]郭嘉,韩宇奇,郭创新,等.考虑监视与控制功能的电网信息物理系统可靠性评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,35(23):2123-2130.
[11]邓红雷,戴栋,李述文.基于层次分析-熵权组合法的架空输电线路综合运行风险评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(1):28-34.
[12]张娟,童晓阳,姜建伟.基于点渗流和熵权法的连锁故障路径风险评估[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2018,30(2):20-25.
[13]黄文婧,李华强,杨植雅,等.基于模糊聚类排序及状态均匀性的电网安全性风险评估[J].电测与仪表,2018,55(9):21-26.
[14]田雨,张晗.基于故障特征隶属函数的电网主设备风险评估方案研究与应用[J].高压电器,2017,53(5):146-153.
[15]边莉,边晨源.采用交叉熵支持向量机和模糊积分的电网故障诊断[J].电机与控制学报,2016,20(2):112-120.