中国31个省市区农产品出口扩展边际及影响因素分析
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摘要
本文基于贸易扩展边际模型框架,利用中国31个省市区2008-2013年的农产品出口HS4位编码数据,从贸易额、产品种类和效力三个维度详细阐述了各省市区农产品出口扩展边际的特征性事实,并结合内生性模型和引力模型揭示扩展边际的驱动因素。本文发现:多数省份在贸易额维度上出口增长扩展边际值较小,在产品种类和效力维度上出口扩展边际值较大,三种维度均表明扩展边际存在地区差异性,东部地区扩展边际值较高,接近发达国家平均水平,而西部地区较低,中西部地区扩展边际波动显著高于东部地区;各类农产品出口扩展边际并没有明显的增长趋势。通过对扩展边际的影响因素分析进一步发现,国内地理区位、农业投资和贸易自由度对出口扩展边际具有促进作用,而外商投资和距离等对出口扩展边际产生抑制作用,东部地区在地理区位上显著优于中西部地区。
Based on the extensive-margin model of trade, this paper uses the HS4 trade data from 31 provinces of China from 2008 to 2013 to systemically describe the fact-based characteristics of the extensive margins of the agricultural exports of the 31 provinces, with observations from the perspectives of trade volume, product categories, and export utilization. The paper also explores the driving factors of the extensive margins through an extended gravity model. The results show that the extensive margins of most provinces' export growth are small in terms of trade volume, but larger in terms of product categories and export utilization. At the same time, there were regional differences in all three measures. The extensive margins of export growth in eastern China were almost equal to those of developed countries and much higher than those in the west.Fluctuations in extensive margins in central and western China were also much more noticeable than in the east. Further, there was no significant trend of growth in any type of product during the period studied. By using endogenous and gravity models, our empirical research shows that economies of scale, investment from domestic agricultural and mining industries, and trade freedom will have positive impact on extensive margin, while foreign investment and long distances will have a negative impact, as evidenced by eastern China's significantly more favorable location than the central and western parts of the country.
Based on the extensive-margin model of trade, this paper uses the HS4 trade data from 31 provinces of China from 2008 to 2013 to systemically describe the fact-based characteristics of the extensive margins of the agricultural exports of the 31 provinces, with observations from the perspectives of trade volume, product categories, and export utilization. The paper also explores the driving factors of the extensive margins through an extended gravity model. The results show that the extensive margins of most provinces' export growth are small in terms of trade volume, but larger in terms of product categories and export utilization. At the same time, there were regional differences in all three measures. The extensive margins of export growth in eastern China were almost equal to those of developed countries and much higher than those in the west.Fluctuations in extensive margins in central and western China were also much more noticeable than in the east. Further, there was no significant trend of growth in any type of product during the period studied. By using endogenous and gravity models, our empirical research shows that economies of scale, investment from domestic agricultural and mining industries, and trade freedom will have positive impact on extensive margin, while foreign investment and long distances will have a negative impact, as evidenced by eastern China's significantly more favorable location than the central and western parts of the country.
引文
陈勇兵、陈宇媚、周世民,(2012)“贸易成本、企业出口动态与出口增长的二元边际——基于中国出口企业微观数据:2000-2005,”《经济学(季刊)》第11期。
刘莉、王瑞、邓强,(2013)“金砖国家农产品贸易增长方式比较分析,”《国际贸易问题》第10期。
马涛、刘仕国,(2010)“产品内分工下中国进口结构与增长的二元边际——基于引力模型的动态面板数据分析,”《南开经济研究》第4期。
钱学锋,(2008)“企业异质性、贸易成本与中国出口增长的二元边际,”《管理世界》第9期。
钱学锋、熊平,(2010)“中国出口增长的二元边际及其因素决定,”《经济研究》第1期。
钱学锋、王胜、陈勇兵,(2013)“中国的多产品出口企业及其产品范围:事实与解释,”《管理世界》第1期。
施炳展,(2010)“中国出口增长的三元边际,”《经济学(季刊)》第9期。
易靖韬,(2013)“中国贸易扩展的二元边际结构及其影响因素研究,”《国际贸易问题》第10期。
Amiti,M.and C.Freund,(2008)An Anatomy of China’s Trade Growth.World Bank Policy Research Work ing Paper Series,No.4628.
Bernard A,J.Eaton,J.B.Jensen and S.Kortum,(2003)“Plants and Productivity in International Trade,”American Economic Review 93(4),1268-1290.
Besedes T.and T.J.Prusa,(2007)“The Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins and Export Growth,”NBER Working Paper,No.13628.
Besedes,T.and T.J.Prusa,(2011)“The Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins and Export Growth,”Journal of Development Economics 96(2),371-379.
Chaney,T,(2008)“Distorted Gravity:The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade,”American Economic Review 98(4),1707-1721.
Eaton,J.and S.Kortum and F.Kramarz,(2011)“An Anatomy of International Trade:Evidence from French Firms,”Econometrica 79(5),1453-1498.
Guillaume Gaulier and Isabelle Méjean,(2006)“Import Prices,Variety and the Extensive Margin of Trade,”Working Papers,CEPII Research Center.17.
Helpman.E,M.J.Melitz and Y.Rubinstein,(2008)“Estimating Trade Flows:Trading Partners and Trading Volumes,”Quarterly Journal of Economics 123(2),441-487.
(1)数据经WITS贸易数据库整理得到。
(2)集约边际,即持续出口产品的贸易增加额占上年贸易总额的比重;扩展边际,即当年退出产品与新进入产品的贸易额之和占上年贸易总额的比重。
(3)企业在出口贸易中并非仅出口一种产品,而是在同一时期向同一市场(或不同市场)出口数种产品。
(4)在Guillaume Gaulier和Isabelle Méjean的研究中,他们发现1994-2003年间,以贸易额衡量的扩展边际仅占进口贸易总额的3.9%,但是代表了40.1%的观测值,说明新增贸易关系数量的比重远大于新增贸易金额的比重。
(5)该方法基于“国家-产品”对的进出口贸易关系数据。
(6)因篇幅原因,需要模型的具体推导可联系笔者。
(7)省市区层面贸易数据来自国研网对外贸易数据库。
(8)分别根据(2)式、图5和表3的三种方法测得扩展边际值(EM)。
(9)本文还分析了农业的工资水平对出口扩展边际的影响,结果表明提高工资会降低出口扩展边际,说明工资收入提高的同时也增强了居民消费能力,扩大国内市场对农产品需求,降低了企业出口意愿;但另一方面,由于政府对农业的补贴和减免税等政策,故工资水平难以代表真实的生产率水平。
(10)Rauch和Watson(2003)在贸易关系搜索模型的研究中提出过关于传统测度方法片面性的观点。
刘莉、王瑞、邓强,(2013)“金砖国家农产品贸易增长方式比较分析,”《国际贸易问题》第10期。
马涛、刘仕国,(2010)“产品内分工下中国进口结构与增长的二元边际——基于引力模型的动态面板数据分析,”《南开经济研究》第4期。
钱学锋,(2008)“企业异质性、贸易成本与中国出口增长的二元边际,”《管理世界》第9期。
钱学锋、熊平,(2010)“中国出口增长的二元边际及其因素决定,”《经济研究》第1期。
钱学锋、王胜、陈勇兵,(2013)“中国的多产品出口企业及其产品范围:事实与解释,”《管理世界》第1期。
施炳展,(2010)“中国出口增长的三元边际,”《经济学(季刊)》第9期。
易靖韬,(2013)“中国贸易扩展的二元边际结构及其影响因素研究,”《国际贸易问题》第10期。
Amiti,M.and C.Freund,(2008)An Anatomy of China’s Trade Growth.World Bank Policy Research Work ing Paper Series,No.4628.
Bernard A,J.Eaton,J.B.Jensen and S.Kortum,(2003)“Plants and Productivity in International Trade,”American Economic Review 93(4),1268-1290.
Besedes T.and T.J.Prusa,(2007)“The Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins and Export Growth,”NBER Working Paper,No.13628.
Besedes,T.and T.J.Prusa,(2011)“The Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins and Export Growth,”Journal of Development Economics 96(2),371-379.
Chaney,T,(2008)“Distorted Gravity:The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade,”American Economic Review 98(4),1707-1721.
Eaton,J.and S.Kortum and F.Kramarz,(2011)“An Anatomy of International Trade:Evidence from French Firms,”Econometrica 79(5),1453-1498.
Guillaume Gaulier and Isabelle Méjean,(2006)“Import Prices,Variety and the Extensive Margin of Trade,”Working Papers,CEPII Research Center.17.
Helpman.E,M.J.Melitz and Y.Rubinstein,(2008)“Estimating Trade Flows:Trading Partners and Trading Volumes,”Quarterly Journal of Economics 123(2),441-487.
(1)数据经WITS贸易数据库整理得到。
(2)集约边际,即持续出口产品的贸易增加额占上年贸易总额的比重;扩展边际,即当年退出产品与新进入产品的贸易额之和占上年贸易总额的比重。
(3)企业在出口贸易中并非仅出口一种产品,而是在同一时期向同一市场(或不同市场)出口数种产品。
(4)在Guillaume Gaulier和Isabelle Méjean的研究中,他们发现1994-2003年间,以贸易额衡量的扩展边际仅占进口贸易总额的3.9%,但是代表了40.1%的观测值,说明新增贸易关系数量的比重远大于新增贸易金额的比重。
(5)该方法基于“国家-产品”对的进出口贸易关系数据。
(6)因篇幅原因,需要模型的具体推导可联系笔者。
(7)省市区层面贸易数据来自国研网对外贸易数据库。
(8)分别根据(2)式、图5和表3的三种方法测得扩展边际值(EM)。
(9)本文还分析了农业的工资水平对出口扩展边际的影响,结果表明提高工资会降低出口扩展边际,说明工资收入提高的同时也增强了居民消费能力,扩大国内市场对农产品需求,降低了企业出口意愿;但另一方面,由于政府对农业的补贴和减免税等政策,故工资水平难以代表真实的生产率水平。
(10)Rauch和Watson(2003)在贸易关系搜索模型的研究中提出过关于传统测度方法片面性的观点。