农户的投资规模和投向对农村经济增长的影响研究
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摘要
针对农户投资与农村经济增长之间的关系,构建短面板动态模型和固定效应模型研究1997—2016年28个省市农户投资对经济增长的推动作用,并结合灰色关联方法研究30个省市2011—2016年间农户的投资结构以及不同投资渠道对经济的推动作用。结果表明:农户固定资产投资的增加不能有效推动农、林、牧、渔产值的增加,农户投资、消费水平与农、林、牧、渔产值之间存在规模递减效应;中、东、西部均存在资产流出生产环节问题,房地产业发展显著影响农村产业化发展,增加了农村经济脆弱性;农户固定资产投资从生产环节影响产值增加的作用较小。
Aiming at the relationship between peasant household investment and rural economic growth,this paper builds a short panel dynamic model and a fixed effect model and studies the promoting effect of peasant household investment on the economic growth of 28 provinces and cities from 1997 to 2016,and the promoting effect of peasant household investment structure and different investment channels on the economy of 30 provinces and cities from 2011 to 2016 by combining the gray correlation method.The results show that:the increase of fixed asset investment cannot effectively increase the output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,and there is a scale decreasing effect between peasant household investment and consumption and output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery;central,eastern,and western provinces and cities all have asset outflow problem in production process,and development of real estate industry significantly affects rural industrialization,which increases the vulnerability of rural economy;the fixed assets investment of peasant household has little effect on the increase of output value in production process.
Aiming at the relationship between peasant household investment and rural economic growth,this paper builds a short panel dynamic model and a fixed effect model and studies the promoting effect of peasant household investment on the economic growth of 28 provinces and cities from 1997 to 2016,and the promoting effect of peasant household investment structure and different investment channels on the economy of 30 provinces and cities from 2011 to 2016 by combining the gray correlation method.The results show that:the increase of fixed asset investment cannot effectively increase the output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,and there is a scale decreasing effect between peasant household investment and consumption and output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery;central,eastern,and western provinces and cities all have asset outflow problem in production process,and development of real estate industry significantly affects rural industrialization,which increases the vulnerability of rural economy;the fixed assets investment of peasant household has little effect on the increase of output value in production process.
引文
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[2]王在全.城乡一体化发展中的农村金融体系建设[J].税务与经济,2016,207(4):45-49.
[3]许建明,孟庆国.我国农业供给侧结构性改革的“加法”与“减法”:政府、合作社与农村金融[J].中国高校社会科学,2018(1):51-59,157.
[4]袁云峰,曹旭华.金融发展与经济增长效率的关系实证研究[J].统计研究,2007(5):60-66.
[5]俞立平.中国金融对经济增长贡献的效率研究:金融发展的阶段划分及评价[J].统计与信息论坛,2012,27(5):42-47.
[6]丁金学,金凤君,王姣娥.东北地区固定资产投资经济效应实证分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2010,26(6):46-50.
[7]刘希章,李富有,南士敬.民间投资运行特征及经济增长效应分析:基于区域差异视角[J].经济与管理研究,2015,36(7):12-18.
[8]凌云.基于投入产出模型的产业部门投资经济影响力分析[J].统计与决策,2017(7):139-142.
[9]张鹏,许敏.我国固定资产投资对经济增长影响的计量分析[J].生产力研究,2011(7):62-64.
[10]王云,赵斌.基于SVAR模型的居民消费、固定资产投资与经济增长研究[J].商业研究,2010(12):18-23.