信息技术应用渗透的阈值特征及实证检验——基于新兴古典经济学框架的分析
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摘要
建立了一个信息技术应用渗透与分工演进伴随进行的一般动态均衡模型,分析信息技术应用的渗透规律。理论和实证分析表明,信息技术应用渗透存在阈值特征,只有当其对交易效率的作用效果高于由经济初始交易效率决定的阈值时,信息技术应用渗透才会启动。经济初始交易效率越高,信息技术应用启动所需达到的阈值越高。建议从提高信息技术的实际应用效益和提高信息技术部门本身的生产服务效率等方面入手来释放人工智能等新一代信息技术推动经济增长的潜力。
This paper studies the property of information technology(IT) diffusion in an economy with spontaneous evolution of division of labor.The general dynamic equilibrium analysis reveals that the penetration of IT innovations shows threshold characters.Only when its actual effects on transaction efficiency achieves the level determined by the initial transaction efficiency of economy,will IT innovations penetration begin.The theoretical inferences are evidenced by the empirical analysis on China's provincial information sector data.This paper suggests to realize the potentials of new generation of IT innovations such as artificial intelligence(AI) from enhancing its actual effects on transaction efficiency and decreasing its applications costs by improving the production and service efficiency of IT innovation sector.
This paper studies the property of information technology(IT) diffusion in an economy with spontaneous evolution of division of labor.The general dynamic equilibrium analysis reveals that the penetration of IT innovations shows threshold characters.Only when its actual effects on transaction efficiency achieves the level determined by the initial transaction efficiency of economy,will IT innovations penetration begin.The theoretical inferences are evidenced by the empirical analysis on China's provincial information sector data.This paper suggests to realize the potentials of new generation of IT innovations such as artificial intelligence(AI) from enhancing its actual effects on transaction efficiency and decreasing its applications costs by improving the production and service efficiency of IT innovation sector.
引文
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[2] BRESNAHAN T F,TRAJTENBERG M.General purpose technologies ‘Engines of growth’[J].Journal of Econometrics,1995,65(1):83-108.
[3] YANG X,BORLAND J.A microeconomic mechanism for economic growth[J].Journal of Political Economy,1991,99(3):460-482.
[4] SMITH A.An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations[M].1776.
[5] YOUNG A A.Increasing returns and economic progress[J].The Economic Journal,1928:527-542.
[6] WEN M.Infrastructure and evolution in division of labor[J].Review of Development Economics,1997,1(2):191-206.
[7] 向国成,钟世虎,谌亭颖,等.分享经济的微观机理研究:新兴古典与新古典[J].管理世界,2017(8):170-171.
[8] JONSCHER C.Information resources and economic productivity[J].Information Economics and Policy,1983,1(1):13-35.
[9] ARROW K J.The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1962,29(3):155-73.
[10] KAMIEN M I,SCHWARTZ N L.Dynamic optimization:the calculus of variations and optimal control in economics and management[M].Courier Corporation,2012.
[11] HANSEN B E.Inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis[J].Econometrica:Journal of the Econometric Society,1996:413-430.
[12] HANSEN B E.Sample splitting and threshold estimation[J].Econometrica,2000,68(3):575-603.
[13] 韩宝国,李世奇.软件和信息技术服务业与中国经济增长[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018(11):128-41.