小企业发展:典型事实与测度分析——以江苏省中小微企业经营活动数据为例
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摘要
研究目标:本文对企业发展指数的测算从全要素生产率视角进行构建,指数权重测度依据计量经济学,形成了随机系数回归方法。研究方法:从理论上将企业TFPR分解为要素投入的经济效益、要素收益率增长效应及要素规模增长效应,同时考察了与TFPR构成项关联的营收能力、技术能力、融资能力、环境适应等运营能力指标,构建了能够全面反映企业发展现状的企业发展指数并以小企业数据进行了验证。研究发现:中小企业的经营能力是企业持续发展的基础,近些年小企业发展能力稳步上升,整体发展势头较好。劳动与资本要素投入的经济效益呈现一种负相关关系。在短期内,受到自身发展规模的影响劳动要素的投入维持相对稳定,而对固定资本投资企业则依据经济形势的变化而调整,资本收益率波动幅度大于劳动工资率波动,企业以"劳动替代资本"方式实现生产率提升。中小企业技术能力提升不明显,且融资能力处于较低水平,这阻碍了企业发展。而中小企业的营收能力处于较高水平,环境适应能力稳步提升,这是中小企业发展良好的动因。研究创新:拓展了指数权重测算方法,同时对小企业发展特征进行了描述。研究价值:有助于深入了解小企业发展情况,在政府针对不同规模企业制定不同政策方面具有启示意义。
Research Objectives:At present,the calculation of enterprise development index is rarely analyzed from the perspective of total factor productivity,while most of the index weight measurement lacks modern econometric methods.Research Methods:We decompose TFPR in theory,including economic efficiency of factor input,factor return effect and factor scale effect.At the same time,we analysis the corporate performance,corporate restructuring and upgrading,financing environment and business environment and other factors,and then construct the enterprise development index which can comprehensively reflect the development of SMEs.In this paper,we use a random coefficient regression method to measure the method,and verify the method with small enterprise data.Research Findings:The operating capacity of SMEs is the basis for the sustainable development of enterprises.In recent years,the development capacity of small enterprises has steadily increased,and the overall development momentum of SMEs is better.The economic benefits of labor and capital factor input show a negative correlation.In the short term,the input of labor factors affected by the scale of its own development remains relatively stable,while the fixed capital investment enterprises are adjusted according to changes in the economic situation.The volatility of the rate of return on capital is greater than the volatility of the labor rate,and enterprises use labor to replace capital to achieve productivity.The improvement of technical capabilities of SMEs is not obvious,and the financing capacity is at a low level,which hinders the development of enterprises.The income capacity of SMEs is at a relatively high level,and the environmental adaptability is steadily increasing.This is a good cause for the development of SMEs.Research Innovations:This paper expands the index weight calculation method,and describes the development characteristics of small enterprises.Research Value:It helps to better understand the development of small enterprises,and the government is of great significance in formulating different policies for enterprises of different sizes.
Research Objectives:At present,the calculation of enterprise development index is rarely analyzed from the perspective of total factor productivity,while most of the index weight measurement lacks modern econometric methods.Research Methods:We decompose TFPR in theory,including economic efficiency of factor input,factor return effect and factor scale effect.At the same time,we analysis the corporate performance,corporate restructuring and upgrading,financing environment and business environment and other factors,and then construct the enterprise development index which can comprehensively reflect the development of SMEs.In this paper,we use a random coefficient regression method to measure the method,and verify the method with small enterprise data.Research Findings:The operating capacity of SMEs is the basis for the sustainable development of enterprises.In recent years,the development capacity of small enterprises has steadily increased,and the overall development momentum of SMEs is better.The economic benefits of labor and capital factor input show a negative correlation.In the short term,the input of labor factors affected by the scale of its own development remains relatively stable,while the fixed capital investment enterprises are adjusted according to changes in the economic situation.The volatility of the rate of return on capital is greater than the volatility of the labor rate,and enterprises use labor to replace capital to achieve productivity.The improvement of technical capabilities of SMEs is not obvious,and the financing capacity is at a low level,which hinders the development of enterprises.The income capacity of SMEs is at a relatively high level,and the environmental adaptability is steadily increasing.This is a good cause for the development of SMEs.Research Innovations:This paper expands the index weight calculation method,and describes the development characteristics of small enterprises.Research Value:It helps to better understand the development of small enterprises,and the government is of great significance in formulating different policies for enterprises of different sizes.
引文
[1]Bai C.E.,Hsieh C.T.,Qian Y.,2006,The Return to Capital in China[J],Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2006(2),61~88.
[2]Baily M.N.,Hulten C.,Campbell D.,Bresnahan T.,Caves R.E.,1992,Productivity Dynamics in Manufacturing Plants[J],Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Microeconomics,187~267.
[3]Baldwin J.R.,Gu W.,2006,Plant Turnover and Productivity Growth in Canadian Manufacturing[J],Industrial and Corporate Change,15(3),417~465.
[4]Bosworth B.,Collins S.M.,2008,Accounting for Growth:Comparing China and India[J],Journal of Economic Perspectives,22(1),45~66.
[5]Brandt L.,Van Biesebroeck J.,Zhang Y.,2012,Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction?Firm-Level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing[J],Journal of Development Economics,97(2),339~351.
[6]Cerulli G.,2014,The Impact of Technological Capabilities on Invention:an Investigation Based on Country Responsiveness Scores[J],World Development,59,147~165.
[7]Chow G.,Lin A.,2002,Accounting for Economic Growth in Taiwan and Mainland China:AComparative Analysis[J],Journal of Comparative Economics,30(3),507~530.
[8]Eisenhardt K.M.,Schoonhoven C.B.,1990,Organizational Growth:Linking Founding Team,Strategy,Environment,and Growth among US Semiconductor Ventures,1978~1988[J],Administrative Science Quarterly,35(3),504~529.
[9]Foster L.,Haltiwanger J.C.,Krizan C.J.,2001,Aggregate Productivity Growth:Lessons from Microeconomic Evidence[A],in Hulten C.R.,Dean E.R.,Harper M.J.,(eds.),New Developments in Productivity Analysis[C],Chicago:University of Chicago Press.
[10]Foster L.,Haltiwanger J.,Syverson C.,2008,Reallocation,Firm Turnover,and Efficiency:Selection on Productivity or Profitability?[J],American Economic Review,98(1),394~425.
[11]Griliches Z.,Regev H.,1995,Firm Productivity in Israeli Industry1979~1988[J],Journal of Econometrics,65(1),175~203.
[12]Harte J.M.,Koele P.,Van Engelenburg G.,1996,Estimation of Attribute Weights in a Multiattribute Choice Situation[J],Acta Psychologica,93(1-3),37~55.
[13]Herrera F.,Martinez L.,Sánchez P.J.,2005,Managing Non-homogeneous Information in Group Decision Making[J],European Journal of Operational Research,166(1),115~132.
[14]Hsieh C.T.,Klenow P.J.,2009,Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India[J],Quarterly Journal of Economics,124(4),1403~1448.
[15]Hwang C.L.,Lin M.J.,1987.,Group Decision Making Under Multiple Criteria:Methods and Applications[M],Berlin:Springer Verlag.
[16]Kasahara H.,Rodrigue J.,2008,Does the Use of Imported Intermediates Increase Productivity?Plant-Level Evidence[J],Journal of Development Economics,87(1),106~118.
[17]Kumbhakar S.C.,Denny M.,Fuss M.,2000,Estimation and Decomposition of Productivity Change when Production is not Efficient:a Panel-data Approach[J],Econometric Reviews,19(4),312~320.
[18]Mareschal B.,1988,Weight Stability Intervals in Multi-criteria Decision Aid[J],European Journal of Operational Research,33(1),54~64.
[19]Melitz M.J.,Polanec S.,2015,Dynamic Olley-Pakes Productivity Decomposition with Entry and Exit[J],The Rand Journal of Economics,46(2),362~375.
[20]Olley G.S.,Pakes A.,1996,The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry[J],Econometrica,64(6),1263~1297.
[21]Perkins D.H.,1988,Reforming China's Economic System[J],Journal of Economic Literature,26(2),601~645.
[22]Saaty T.L.,1977,A Scaling Method for Priorities in Hierarchical Structures[J],Journal of Mathematical Psychology,15(3),234~281.
[23]Saaty T.L.,1980,The Analytic Hierarchy Process:Planning,Priority Setting,Resource Allocation[M],New York:MacGraw-Hill.
[24]World Bank,2013,China 2030:Building a Modern,Harmonious,and Creative Society[M],Washington D.C.:World Bank Publications.
[25]Xu Z.,2004,A Method Based on Linguistic Aggregation Operators for Group Decision Making with Linguistic Preference Relations[J],Information Sciences,166(1-4),19~30.
[26]Xu Z.,2007,A Method for Multiple Attribute Decision Making with Incomplete Weight Information in Linguistic Setting[J],Knowledge-Based Systems,20(8),719~725.
[27]Young A.,2003,Gold into Base Metals:Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period[J],Journal of Political Economy,111(6),1220~1261.
[28]安格斯·麦迪逊:《中国经济的长期表现:公元960~2030年》[M],上海人民出版社,2008。
[29]蔡昉:《中国经济增长如何转向全要素生产率驱动型》[J],《中国社会科学》2013年第1期。
[30]方文全:《中国的资本回报率有多高?---年份资本视角的宏观数据再估测》[J],《经济学(季刊)》2012年第2期。
[31]郭娜:《政府?市场?谁更有效---中小企业融资难解决机制有效性研究》[J],《金融研究》2013年第3期。
[32]贺菊煌:《我国资产的估算》[J],《数量经济技术经济研究》1992年第8期。
[33]胡永泰:《中国全要素生产率:来自农业部门劳动力再配置的首要作用》[J],《经济研究》1998年第3期。
[34]李京文:《生产率与中国经济增长的研究(1953~1990年)》[J],《数量经济技术经济研究》1992年第1期。
[35]林毅夫、孙希芳:《信息、非正规金融与中小企业融资》[J],《经济研究》2005年第7期。
[36]林毅夫、任若恩:《东亚经济增长模式相关争论的再探讨》[J],《经济研究》2007年第8期。
[37]鲁晓东、连玉君:《中国工业企业全要素生产率估计:1999~2007》[J],《经济学(季刊)》2012第2期。
[38]吕劲松:《关于中小企业融资难、融资贵问题的思考》[J],《金融研究》2015年第11期。
[39]涂正革、肖耿:《中国大中型工业的成本效率分析:1995~2002》[J],《世界经济》2007年第7期。
[40]王小鲁、樊纲:《中国经济增长的可持续性:跨世纪的回顾与展望》[M],经济科学出版社,2000。
[41]张军:《资本形成、工业化与经济增长:中国的转轨特征》[J],《经济研究》2002年第6期。
[42]张勋、徐建国:《中国资本回报率的驱动因素》[J],《经济学(季刊)》2016年第3期。
(1)由于部门间统计口径和数据库口径等问题,文中小企业、中小企业、中小微企业均为规模以下小企业。
(1)具体的推导过程不再罗列,如有需要请与作者索取。
(1)本文主要是通过企业收益型全要素生产率的分解,构建企业发展指数,而企业运营投入的具体函数不再设定。
(1)在实际中,很难保证各个变量之间是相互独立的,本文则采用较低的相关系数体现各个经济变量之间的独立性。
(2)具体推导过程不再列出,如有兴趣读者向作者索取。
(3)这里需要说明,在理论上两变量间相互独立时,两变量不相关,则导数为零。但是,在现实经济中,各个变量之间不是完全的不相关,故本文中将其导数值取趋向于零的一个值,即ξ趋向于零。具体核算公式不再列出。
(1)核算的具体数值不再列出。
(2)本文基于江苏省检测的中小微企业数据,数据为月度数据,故核算的基期定为2014年1月。
(1)Hall和Jones(1999)、Young(2000)等核算国家资本存量时折旧率采用6%;龚六堂和谢丹阳(2004)等核算我国各省份资本存量时折旧率采用10%;黄永峰等(2002)核算我国制造业、设备及其他类型投资的折旧率分别为6.9%、14.9%、12.1%;张军等(2004)核算各省固定资本时折旧率为9.6%。
(2)通常情况,资本产出弹性取值0.8、0.4、0.6,在规模报酬不变的前提下,劳动产出弹性则取0.2、0.6、0.4。
(3)考虑到企业发展过程中,企业要素产出弹性较为稳定,故在核算时企业要素产出弹性采用半年均值;同时,企业指标数据(如固定资产投资、负债、资产、应付职工薪酬等)非每月发布,考虑到核算企业发展指数的延续性,则采用滞后一期的企业要素产出弹性核算,如2016年上半年企业发展指数中要素弹性基于2015年下半年企业的要素产出弹性核算。
(4)数据来源于《中国中小企业统计年鉴》,最新数据只公布到2013年,且2012年与2013年没有公布从业人员。
(1)因篇幅限制,中小企业经营能力指数的三级指标相关数据与走势图,不再单独列出。
(1)因篇幅限制,中小企业经营能力指数的三级指标相关数据与走势图,不再单独列出。
[2]Baily M.N.,Hulten C.,Campbell D.,Bresnahan T.,Caves R.E.,1992,Productivity Dynamics in Manufacturing Plants[J],Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Microeconomics,187~267.
[3]Baldwin J.R.,Gu W.,2006,Plant Turnover and Productivity Growth in Canadian Manufacturing[J],Industrial and Corporate Change,15(3),417~465.
[4]Bosworth B.,Collins S.M.,2008,Accounting for Growth:Comparing China and India[J],Journal of Economic Perspectives,22(1),45~66.
[5]Brandt L.,Van Biesebroeck J.,Zhang Y.,2012,Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction?Firm-Level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing[J],Journal of Development Economics,97(2),339~351.
[6]Cerulli G.,2014,The Impact of Technological Capabilities on Invention:an Investigation Based on Country Responsiveness Scores[J],World Development,59,147~165.
[7]Chow G.,Lin A.,2002,Accounting for Economic Growth in Taiwan and Mainland China:AComparative Analysis[J],Journal of Comparative Economics,30(3),507~530.
[8]Eisenhardt K.M.,Schoonhoven C.B.,1990,Organizational Growth:Linking Founding Team,Strategy,Environment,and Growth among US Semiconductor Ventures,1978~1988[J],Administrative Science Quarterly,35(3),504~529.
[9]Foster L.,Haltiwanger J.C.,Krizan C.J.,2001,Aggregate Productivity Growth:Lessons from Microeconomic Evidence[A],in Hulten C.R.,Dean E.R.,Harper M.J.,(eds.),New Developments in Productivity Analysis[C],Chicago:University of Chicago Press.
[10]Foster L.,Haltiwanger J.,Syverson C.,2008,Reallocation,Firm Turnover,and Efficiency:Selection on Productivity or Profitability?[J],American Economic Review,98(1),394~425.
[11]Griliches Z.,Regev H.,1995,Firm Productivity in Israeli Industry1979~1988[J],Journal of Econometrics,65(1),175~203.
[12]Harte J.M.,Koele P.,Van Engelenburg G.,1996,Estimation of Attribute Weights in a Multiattribute Choice Situation[J],Acta Psychologica,93(1-3),37~55.
[13]Herrera F.,Martinez L.,Sánchez P.J.,2005,Managing Non-homogeneous Information in Group Decision Making[J],European Journal of Operational Research,166(1),115~132.
[14]Hsieh C.T.,Klenow P.J.,2009,Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India[J],Quarterly Journal of Economics,124(4),1403~1448.
[15]Hwang C.L.,Lin M.J.,1987.,Group Decision Making Under Multiple Criteria:Methods and Applications[M],Berlin:Springer Verlag.
[16]Kasahara H.,Rodrigue J.,2008,Does the Use of Imported Intermediates Increase Productivity?Plant-Level Evidence[J],Journal of Development Economics,87(1),106~118.
[17]Kumbhakar S.C.,Denny M.,Fuss M.,2000,Estimation and Decomposition of Productivity Change when Production is not Efficient:a Panel-data Approach[J],Econometric Reviews,19(4),312~320.
[18]Mareschal B.,1988,Weight Stability Intervals in Multi-criteria Decision Aid[J],European Journal of Operational Research,33(1),54~64.
[19]Melitz M.J.,Polanec S.,2015,Dynamic Olley-Pakes Productivity Decomposition with Entry and Exit[J],The Rand Journal of Economics,46(2),362~375.
[20]Olley G.S.,Pakes A.,1996,The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry[J],Econometrica,64(6),1263~1297.
[21]Perkins D.H.,1988,Reforming China's Economic System[J],Journal of Economic Literature,26(2),601~645.
[22]Saaty T.L.,1977,A Scaling Method for Priorities in Hierarchical Structures[J],Journal of Mathematical Psychology,15(3),234~281.
[23]Saaty T.L.,1980,The Analytic Hierarchy Process:Planning,Priority Setting,Resource Allocation[M],New York:MacGraw-Hill.
[24]World Bank,2013,China 2030:Building a Modern,Harmonious,and Creative Society[M],Washington D.C.:World Bank Publications.
[25]Xu Z.,2004,A Method Based on Linguistic Aggregation Operators for Group Decision Making with Linguistic Preference Relations[J],Information Sciences,166(1-4),19~30.
[26]Xu Z.,2007,A Method for Multiple Attribute Decision Making with Incomplete Weight Information in Linguistic Setting[J],Knowledge-Based Systems,20(8),719~725.
[27]Young A.,2003,Gold into Base Metals:Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period[J],Journal of Political Economy,111(6),1220~1261.
[28]安格斯·麦迪逊:《中国经济的长期表现:公元960~2030年》[M],上海人民出版社,2008。
[29]蔡昉:《中国经济增长如何转向全要素生产率驱动型》[J],《中国社会科学》2013年第1期。
[30]方文全:《中国的资本回报率有多高?---年份资本视角的宏观数据再估测》[J],《经济学(季刊)》2012年第2期。
[31]郭娜:《政府?市场?谁更有效---中小企业融资难解决机制有效性研究》[J],《金融研究》2013年第3期。
[32]贺菊煌:《我国资产的估算》[J],《数量经济技术经济研究》1992年第8期。
[33]胡永泰:《中国全要素生产率:来自农业部门劳动力再配置的首要作用》[J],《经济研究》1998年第3期。
[34]李京文:《生产率与中国经济增长的研究(1953~1990年)》[J],《数量经济技术经济研究》1992年第1期。
[35]林毅夫、孙希芳:《信息、非正规金融与中小企业融资》[J],《经济研究》2005年第7期。
[36]林毅夫、任若恩:《东亚经济增长模式相关争论的再探讨》[J],《经济研究》2007年第8期。
[37]鲁晓东、连玉君:《中国工业企业全要素生产率估计:1999~2007》[J],《经济学(季刊)》2012第2期。
[38]吕劲松:《关于中小企业融资难、融资贵问题的思考》[J],《金融研究》2015年第11期。
[39]涂正革、肖耿:《中国大中型工业的成本效率分析:1995~2002》[J],《世界经济》2007年第7期。
[40]王小鲁、樊纲:《中国经济增长的可持续性:跨世纪的回顾与展望》[M],经济科学出版社,2000。
[41]张军:《资本形成、工业化与经济增长:中国的转轨特征》[J],《经济研究》2002年第6期。
[42]张勋、徐建国:《中国资本回报率的驱动因素》[J],《经济学(季刊)》2016年第3期。
(1)由于部门间统计口径和数据库口径等问题,文中小企业、中小企业、中小微企业均为规模以下小企业。
(1)具体的推导过程不再罗列,如有需要请与作者索取。
(1)本文主要是通过企业收益型全要素生产率的分解,构建企业发展指数,而企业运营投入的具体函数不再设定。
(1)在实际中,很难保证各个变量之间是相互独立的,本文则采用较低的相关系数体现各个经济变量之间的独立性。
(2)具体推导过程不再列出,如有兴趣读者向作者索取。
(3)这里需要说明,在理论上两变量间相互独立时,两变量不相关,则导数为零。但是,在现实经济中,各个变量之间不是完全的不相关,故本文中将其导数值取趋向于零的一个值,即ξ趋向于零。具体核算公式不再列出。
(1)核算的具体数值不再列出。
(2)本文基于江苏省检测的中小微企业数据,数据为月度数据,故核算的基期定为2014年1月。
(1)Hall和Jones(1999)、Young(2000)等核算国家资本存量时折旧率采用6%;龚六堂和谢丹阳(2004)等核算我国各省份资本存量时折旧率采用10%;黄永峰等(2002)核算我国制造业、设备及其他类型投资的折旧率分别为6.9%、14.9%、12.1%;张军等(2004)核算各省固定资本时折旧率为9.6%。
(2)通常情况,资本产出弹性取值0.8、0.4、0.6,在规模报酬不变的前提下,劳动产出弹性则取0.2、0.6、0.4。
(3)考虑到企业发展过程中,企业要素产出弹性较为稳定,故在核算时企业要素产出弹性采用半年均值;同时,企业指标数据(如固定资产投资、负债、资产、应付职工薪酬等)非每月发布,考虑到核算企业发展指数的延续性,则采用滞后一期的企业要素产出弹性核算,如2016年上半年企业发展指数中要素弹性基于2015年下半年企业的要素产出弹性核算。
(4)数据来源于《中国中小企业统计年鉴》,最新数据只公布到2013年,且2012年与2013年没有公布从业人员。
(1)因篇幅限制,中小企业经营能力指数的三级指标相关数据与走势图,不再单独列出。
(1)因篇幅限制,中小企业经营能力指数的三级指标相关数据与走势图,不再单独列出。