基于动态模糊理论的铁路危险货物办理站运输安全评价研究
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摘要
为提高铁路企业安全生产管理水平,准确反映铁路危险货物办理站运输安全状态,确保铁路危险货物办理站运输安全,在参考铁路危险货物运输法律法规和现有研究成果的基础上,建立铁路危险货物办理站运输安全评价体系,并应用三角模糊数确定指标权重,构建基于动态模糊理论的铁路危险货物办理站运输安全评价模型。通过计算各级指标的模糊值、评价等级,得到评价指标的相应发展趋势,形成铁路危险货物办理站运输安全动态评价结果,为铁路危险货物办理站安全管理提供参考依据。
To promote safe production and management at railway enterprises, objectively reflect the safety state at railway stations handling dangerous goods and ensure their safety, this paper has firstly established a transportation safety evaluation system based on the laws and regulations on railway transportation of dangerous goods and the latest research results. Then, based on the dynamic fuzzy theory, the authors have further put forward a safety evaluation model with the index weights determined by using the triangular fuzzy numbers(TFN), which can be used to dynamically evaluate the safety levels at the railway stations handling dangerous freight based on the results on the trend of the evaluation indicators which have been achieved through calculating the fuzzy values and grades of the evaluation indicators at all levels. The proposed model is expected to serve as reference point for safety management of railway stations handling dangerous goods.
To promote safe production and management at railway enterprises, objectively reflect the safety state at railway stations handling dangerous goods and ensure their safety, this paper has firstly established a transportation safety evaluation system based on the laws and regulations on railway transportation of dangerous goods and the latest research results. Then, based on the dynamic fuzzy theory, the authors have further put forward a safety evaluation model with the index weights determined by using the triangular fuzzy numbers(TFN), which can be used to dynamically evaluate the safety levels at the railway stations handling dangerous freight based on the results on the trend of the evaluation indicators which have been achieved through calculating the fuzzy values and grades of the evaluation indicators at all levels. The proposed model is expected to serve as reference point for safety management of railway stations handling dangerous goods.
引文
[1]陈亮.铁路危险货物运输安全综合分析研究[D].北京:清华大学,2013.
[2]VERMA M.Rail Transportation of Dangerous Goods:A Conditional Exposure Approach to Minimize Transport Risk[J].Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technology,2011,19(5):790-802.
[3]肖鲲.铁路专用线危险货物运输安全评估技术的研究[J].铁道货运,2017,35(6):19-23.XIAO Kun.Study on Evaluation Technology of Dangerous Goods Transportation on Railway Industrial Siding[J].Rilway Freight Transport,2017,35(6):19-23.
[4]李颖.铁路危险货物运输安全综合评价模型的建立及应用研究[D].兰州:兰州交通大学,2009.
[5]王爽.铁路危险货物办理站及专用线运输安全现状综合分析与管理对策研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2012.
[6]张超.基于基于多层次灰色评价法的铁路危险货物办理站运输安全综合评价[J].石家庄铁道大学学报(自然科学版),2014,27(3):84-89.ZHANG Chao.Comprehensive Assessment on Transportation Safety of Railway Station Specialized for Dangerous Goods based on Multi-level Grey Evaluation Method[J].Journal of Shijiazhuang Tiedao University(Natural Science),2014,27(3):84-89.
[7]黄兴建,王伟.基于动态模糊理论的铁路货运安全评价研究[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2016,13(7):1420-1425.HUANG Xingjian,WANG Wei.Railway Freight Safety Evaluation based on Dynaminc Fuzzy Theory[J].Journal of Railway Science and Engineering,2016,13(7):1420-1425.
[8]郭寒英,石红国,张鹏,等.基于动态模糊理论的铁路专用线安全评价[J].铁道运输与经济,2017,39(2):40-45.GUO Hanying,SHI Hongguo,ZHANG Peng,et al.Safety Evaluation of Railway Industrial Sidings based on Dynamic Fuzzy Theory[J].Railway Transport and Economy,2017,39(2):40-45.
[9]徐泽水.三角模糊数互补判断矩阵的一种排序方法[J].模糊系统与数学,2002,16(1):47-50.XU Zeshui.A Method for Priorities of Triangular Fuzzy Number Complementary Judgement Matrices[J].Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics,2002,16(1):47-50.
[10]苏顺虎.中国铁路危险货物运输技术及安全管理[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,2010.
[11]中华人民共和国铁道部.铁路危险货物运输管理规则[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,2006.
[2]VERMA M.Rail Transportation of Dangerous Goods:A Conditional Exposure Approach to Minimize Transport Risk[J].Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technology,2011,19(5):790-802.
[3]肖鲲.铁路专用线危险货物运输安全评估技术的研究[J].铁道货运,2017,35(6):19-23.XIAO Kun.Study on Evaluation Technology of Dangerous Goods Transportation on Railway Industrial Siding[J].Rilway Freight Transport,2017,35(6):19-23.
[4]李颖.铁路危险货物运输安全综合评价模型的建立及应用研究[D].兰州:兰州交通大学,2009.
[5]王爽.铁路危险货物办理站及专用线运输安全现状综合分析与管理对策研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2012.
[6]张超.基于基于多层次灰色评价法的铁路危险货物办理站运输安全综合评价[J].石家庄铁道大学学报(自然科学版),2014,27(3):84-89.ZHANG Chao.Comprehensive Assessment on Transportation Safety of Railway Station Specialized for Dangerous Goods based on Multi-level Grey Evaluation Method[J].Journal of Shijiazhuang Tiedao University(Natural Science),2014,27(3):84-89.
[7]黄兴建,王伟.基于动态模糊理论的铁路货运安全评价研究[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2016,13(7):1420-1425.HUANG Xingjian,WANG Wei.Railway Freight Safety Evaluation based on Dynaminc Fuzzy Theory[J].Journal of Railway Science and Engineering,2016,13(7):1420-1425.
[8]郭寒英,石红国,张鹏,等.基于动态模糊理论的铁路专用线安全评价[J].铁道运输与经济,2017,39(2):40-45.GUO Hanying,SHI Hongguo,ZHANG Peng,et al.Safety Evaluation of Railway Industrial Sidings based on Dynamic Fuzzy Theory[J].Railway Transport and Economy,2017,39(2):40-45.
[9]徐泽水.三角模糊数互补判断矩阵的一种排序方法[J].模糊系统与数学,2002,16(1):47-50.XU Zeshui.A Method for Priorities of Triangular Fuzzy Number Complementary Judgement Matrices[J].Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics,2002,16(1):47-50.
[10]苏顺虎.中国铁路危险货物运输技术及安全管理[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,2010.
[11]中华人民共和国铁道部.铁路危险货物运输管理规则[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,2006.