净进口畜产品贸易的价格效应及市场联动研究
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摘要
基于传统贸易理论及"大国效应",笔者运用2002年～2017年畜产品进口量及价格数据,分析了我国猪肉、牛肉、羊肉3种净进口畜产品进口贸易对国内外市场价格的影响以及国内外畜产品市场价格之间的联动效应。研究结果表明:猪肉、牛肉、羊肉的进口量对其国内市场价格具有显著的单向负效应,影响率分别为-0.24%、-0.41%、-0.08%,其中牛肉影响效应最强;对其国际市场价格具有显著的单向正效应,影响率分别为0.19%、0.06%、0.01%,其中猪肉影响效应最强。国内外市场价格间具有一定的整合性及传导性,从畜产品整合程度、市场间价格传递速度、市场效率来看,猪肉市场最优,其次是羊肉市场,最后是牛肉市场。国内猪肉价格较牛肉、羊肉价格在国际市场上具有较强的影响力。
Based on traditional trade theory and "large country effect", this paper uses import and price data from 2002 to 2017 to analyze the impact of import trade of three varieties of net live-stock products(pork, beef and mutton) on the foreign and domestic market price and the connected effect among foreign and domestic live-stock products market price. The results show that: the imports of pork, beef and mutton have significant single directional negative effect on the domestic market price, and the impact ratio is-0.24%,-0.41% and-0.08%, respectively, in which the impact of beef is the strongest; the imports of pork, beef and mutton have obvious single directional positive effect on the international market price, and the impact ratio is 0.19%, 0.06% and0.01%, respectively, in which the impact of pork is the strongest. The foreign and domestic market prices have certain conformability and conductivity, and from the aspect of integration degree of live-stock products, intermarket prices transmission rate and market efficiency, the pork market is the best, mutton market is the secondary and beef market is the last. Domestic pork price has stronger impact on international market than that of beef and mutton price.
Based on traditional trade theory and "large country effect", this paper uses import and price data from 2002 to 2017 to analyze the impact of import trade of three varieties of net live-stock products(pork, beef and mutton) on the foreign and domestic market price and the connected effect among foreign and domestic live-stock products market price. The results show that: the imports of pork, beef and mutton have significant single directional negative effect on the domestic market price, and the impact ratio is-0.24%,-0.41% and-0.08%, respectively, in which the impact of beef is the strongest; the imports of pork, beef and mutton have obvious single directional positive effect on the international market price, and the impact ratio is 0.19%, 0.06% and0.01%, respectively, in which the impact of pork is the strongest. The foreign and domestic market prices have certain conformability and conductivity, and from the aspect of integration degree of live-stock products, intermarket prices transmission rate and market efficiency, the pork market is the best, mutton market is the secondary and beef market is the last. Domestic pork price has stronger impact on international market than that of beef and mutton price.
引文
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[2]庞玉良,张军平,倪洪兴.中国畜产品对外贸易及发展趋势展望[J].世界农业,2011(1):29-33.
[3]胡梅梅,陈茹.中国畜产品贸易逆差:成因与对策[J].世界农业,2016(5):198-202.
[4]马佳,漆雁斌.中国畜产品贸易逆差影响因素研究---基于CMS模型的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2014(2):96-102.
[5]胡东兴,王桂霞.RCEP建立对中国畜产品贸易影响的研究[J].中国畜牧杂志,2017(11):134-138.
[6]王永刚,许良,王永强.中国高进口依存度农产品的贸易行为及其影响研究[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2013(10):104-112.
[7]Carol Alexander,John Wyeth.Cointegration and market integration:An application to the Indonesian rice market[J].Journal of Development Studies,1994(2):303-334.
[8]Stefan Dercon.On market integration and liberalisation:Method and application to Ethiopia[J].Journal of Development Studies,2007(1):112-143.
[9]张帅,朱增勇.中国畜产品贸易及国内外市场价格比较分析[J].中国畜牧业,2015(1):38-40.
[10]李梦希,朱增勇.近10年来我国猪肉进出口状况及未来贸易趋势[J].猪业经济,2018(3):29-31.
[11]任慧,林海,李军.中国羊肉进口状况及其对肉羊产业的影响分析[J].农业展望,2017(6):69-74.