病险水库大坝风险因素综合排序研究
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摘要
科学、准确的风险因素综合排序为病险水库风险管理的主要依据,通过分析水库除险加固统计资料数据,分别从水库效益、溃坝概率以及溃坝损失3个层次选择22项水库大坝风险初始指标,然后以辽宁省为例运用主成分分析法确定了12座病险水库的风险因素综合排序。结果显示:在水库大坝风险因素排序方面主成分分析法呈现出较强的科学性与合理性,可为水库风险管理以及除险加固设计提供一定决策依据。
Scientific,correct and comprehensive ranking of the risk factor is major accordance for risk management of the dangerous reservoir,by analyzing the data about reservoir danger removal and reinforcement statistics,22 initial risk indexes of reservoir dam are selected respectively from three levels of reservoir benefits,dam break probability and loss of dam breaking,then taking Liaoning Province as the example, the principle component analysis process is used to determine the comprehensive ranking of risk factors of 12 dangerous reservoirs. The results show that the principal component analysis process takes on strong scientific and rational characters with respect of reservoir dam risk factor ranking,providing a certain accordance to make decisions for the risk management and danger removal and reinforcement of reservoirs.
Scientific,correct and comprehensive ranking of the risk factor is major accordance for risk management of the dangerous reservoir,by analyzing the data about reservoir danger removal and reinforcement statistics,22 initial risk indexes of reservoir dam are selected respectively from three levels of reservoir benefits,dam break probability and loss of dam breaking,then taking Liaoning Province as the example, the principle component analysis process is used to determine the comprehensive ranking of risk factors of 12 dangerous reservoirs. The results show that the principal component analysis process takes on strong scientific and rational characters with respect of reservoir dam risk factor ranking,providing a certain accordance to make decisions for the risk management and danger removal and reinforcement of reservoirs.
引文
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[8]贾瑞红.水库生态调度的措施及其发展前景[J].水利技术监督,2011(05):42-44.
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[2]盛金保,赫健,王昭升.基于风险的病险水库除险决策技术[J].水利水电科技进展,2008,28(02):25-29.
[3]傅琼华,王纯.江西省病险水库除险加固规划[J].水利发展研究,2004,4(08):43-46.
[4]段智芳,傅琼华,李雷.病险水库除险加固排序在江西的示范应用研究[J].江西水利科技,2007,33(01):12-16.
[5]刘涛,牛阿果.水库除险加固施工资源优化研究及应用[J].水土保持应用技术,2017(05):46-48.
[6]张俊南.苇子沟水库工程质量与安全综合评价[J].地下水,2015(03):144-145.
[7]张克阳.小型水库安全管理模式的探索[J].中国水能及电气化,2018(11):24-26.
[8]贾瑞红.水库生态调度的措施及其发展前景[J].水利技术监督,2011(05):42-44.
[9]彭国灿.论小型水库的安全隐患及除险加固措施[J].黑龙江水利科技,2012(09):121-122.