大型工程前期的进度风险总控
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摘要
针对大型工程前期工作不确定性高的问题,通过国内数个大型机场工程前期工作的进度总控实践成果,提出将进度总控与风险管理相结合的前期进度风险总控模型.然后,以XY新机场为例,应用该模型制定前期进度计划和风险清单.最后,通过XY机场与其他机场前期进度的总体风险对比,以及该进度风险计划实施前后的效果对比,证实了前期进度风险总控方法的有效性.通过引入风险管理的前期进度总控模型,提高了进度总控在项目前期的适用性,为加快推进大型工程的前期工作进度提供了方法指导和借鉴.
Based on project-time controlling and risk management theory,a time-risk controlling model has been proposed to solve the problem of high uncertainty in the early stage of mega construction project(MCP)from the consulting achievements for several airport megaprojects. Next,the model was applied to develop pre-stage schedules and risk lists for XY airport megaproject.Finally,the effectiveness of controlling method was proved by comparing the overall timerisks of XY airport and other two airport pre-schedules,and comparing the effect before and after implementation of the customized plan. The risk-based method improves the applicability of project time-controlling at the front-end,and provides a methodological guidance for early time control of MCPs.
Based on project-time controlling and risk management theory,a time-risk controlling model has been proposed to solve the problem of high uncertainty in the early stage of mega construction project(MCP)from the consulting achievements for several airport megaprojects. Next,the model was applied to develop pre-stage schedules and risk lists for XY airport megaproject.Finally,the effectiveness of controlling method was proved by comparing the overall timerisks of XY airport and other two airport pre-schedules,and comparing the effect before and after implementation of the customized plan. The risk-based method improves the applicability of project time-controlling at the front-end,and provides a methodological guidance for early time control of MCPs.
引文
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[3]武平乐.多方努力加快项目前期工作进度[N].洛阳日报,2007-06-12(01).WU Pingle.Multi-joint efforts to speed up progress of megaprojects in the front-end.Luoyang Daily[N].Luoyang Daily,2007-06-12(01).
[4]武平乐.加大重大项目谋划和招商力度加快重大项目的前期工作进度[N].洛阳日报,2008-06-03(01).WU Pingle.Increasing planning and investment efforts speed up progress of megaprojects in the front-end[N].Luoyang Daily,2008-06-03(01).
[5]田林钢,黄香,高海伟.溪洛渡电站施工进度风险模糊综合评判[J].人民黄河,2011,33(5):89.TIAN Lingang,HUANG Xiang,GAO Haiwei.Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation on Construction Progress Risk of Xiluodu Hydropower Station[J].Yellow River,2011,33(5):89.
[6]张福生,王洪泊,杨扬,等.一种基于贝叶斯网络的建设项目风险评估方法[J].计算机仿真,2010,27(7):296.ZHANG Fusheng,WANG Hongbo,YANG Yang,et al.A kind of risk evaluation method based on Bayesian networks for construction projects[J].Computer Simulation,2010,27(7):296.
[7]张晓峰,朱琳,谭学奇,等.大型水利水电工程施工进度风险分析[J].水利水电技术,2005,36(4):82.ZHANG Xiaofeng,ZHU Lin,TAN Xueqi,et al.Risk analysis on construction of large water conservancy and hydropower project[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2005,36(4):82.
[8]韦海超.大型水电站前期项目发包管理研究[D].成都:西南财经大学,2009.WEI Haichao.Study on pre-project contract management of large-scale hydropower Station[D].Chengdu:Southwest University of Finance and Economics,2009.
[9]郭劼.工程建设报建阶段进度控制研究[D].上海:复旦大学,信息科学与工程学院,2013.GUO Jie.Research on progress control of engineering construction in the early stage[D].Shanghai:College of Information Science and Engineering,Fudan University,2013.
[10]孙振芳.港口建设前期工作的开展与实施[J].港口建设,1995,3:11.SUN Zhenfang.The construction and implementation of the pre-port construction[J].Port Construction,1995,3:11.
[11]刘予昆.郑州市道路工程项目前期立项及可行性研究[D].郑州:河南工业大学土木建筑学院,2016.LIU Zhikun.The preliminary and feasibility study of Zheng Zhou road project[D].Zhengzhou:School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Henan University of Technology,2016.
[12]Flyvbjerg B.What you should know about megaprojects and why:an overview[J].Project management journal,2014,45(2):6.
[13]SALET W,BERTOLINI L,GIEZEN M.Complexity and uncertainty:problem or asset in decision making of mega infrastructure projects?[J].International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,2013,37(6):1984.
[14]SAMSET K.Early project appraisal[M].London:Palgrave Macmillan UK,2010.
[15]青岛新机场建设指挥部.青岛新机场工程项目可行性研究报告[R].青岛:西南建筑设计院,2014.Qingdao New Airport Construction Headquarters.Qingdao new airport project feasibility study report[R].Qingdao:Southwest Architectural Design Institute,2014.
[16]Project Management Institute.A guide to the project management body of knowledge.5th ed[M].Newtown Square:Project Management Institute,Inc.,2013.