基于模糊综合评价法的浙江省高速公路暴雨灾害风险评估
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摘要
利用2006—2017年浙江省气象站点的降水数据、基础地理信息数据以及社会经济数据,考虑高速公路的自然地理环境特征,从危险性、暴露度、脆弱性3个方面出发,建立高速公路暴雨灾害风险评估指标集。通过Arc GIS技术,结合模糊综合评价法,建立暴雨灾害风险评估模型,形成浙江省高速公路暴雨灾害风险区划图。结果表明,浙东南沿海地区及西部山区境内的高速路段风险等级较高,浙北北部地区和中部盆地境内的高速路段风险较低。高风险路段主要分布在长深高速富阳段、京台高速开化段、诸永高速永嘉段、温丽高速温州段、温州绕城高速、甬台温高速台州段以及瑞安到苍南段、常台高速天台东段等路段。
Based on the precipitation observation data from meteorological stations in Zhejiang Province during 2006-2017 and combined with the geographic information and social and economic data,the risk assessment index sets were established on the basis of the analysis of hazard factors,vulnerability and exposure,considering the natural geographical environment characteristics of expressway.Risk assessment model was established by using methods of Arc GIS spatial technique and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and finally the risk division map of rainstorm disasters on expressway in Zhejiang was performed. The results show that the higher level of rainstorm risk appeared in southeast coastal areas and west mountainous areas of Zhejiang,while the lower level of rainstorm risk on the expressway sections occurred in the north of northern Zhejiang and central basin area. The higher risk sections were mainly located in Chang-Shen expressway Fuyang section,Jing-Tai expressway Kaihua sections,Zhu-Yong expressway Yongjia sections,Wen-Li expressway Wenzhou sections,Wenzhou ring expressway,Yong-Tai-Wen expressway Taizhou section,and from Ruian to Cangnan sections,Chang-Tai expressway Tiantai east sections.
Based on the precipitation observation data from meteorological stations in Zhejiang Province during 2006-2017 and combined with the geographic information and social and economic data,the risk assessment index sets were established on the basis of the analysis of hazard factors,vulnerability and exposure,considering the natural geographical environment characteristics of expressway.Risk assessment model was established by using methods of Arc GIS spatial technique and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and finally the risk division map of rainstorm disasters on expressway in Zhejiang was performed. The results show that the higher level of rainstorm risk appeared in southeast coastal areas and west mountainous areas of Zhejiang,while the lower level of rainstorm risk on the expressway sections occurred in the north of northern Zhejiang and central basin area. The higher risk sections were mainly located in Chang-Shen expressway Fuyang section,Jing-Tai expressway Kaihua sections,Zhu-Yong expressway Yongjia sections,Wen-Li expressway Wenzhou sections,Wenzhou ring expressway,Yong-Tai-Wen expressway Taizhou section,and from Ruian to Cangnan sections,Chang-Tai expressway Tiantai east sections.
引文
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[2]钱莉,安颖颖,赵德强.乌鞘岭高速公路路段多发交通事故的气象条件分析[J].干旱气象,2014,32(2):286-291.
[3]张利,汪林.不利气象条件对公路交通安全的影响及对策[J].公路交通科技,2011,28(增刊1):120-123.
[4]SMITH K. Environmental Hazards:assessing risk and reducing disaster(2nd edition)[M]. New York:Routledge,1996.
[5] OTAR V,NINO T,AVTANDIL A,et al. Vulnerability,hazards and multiple risk assessment for Georgia[J]. Natural Hazards,2012,64(3):2021-2056.
[6]王清川,寿绍文,许敏,等.廊坊市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与区划[J].干旱气象,2010,28(4):475-482.
[7]王秀荣,吕终亮,王莉萍,等.一种简化的暴雨灾害风险及影响评估方法和应用研究——以京津冀“7·21"暴雨事件为例[J].气象,2016,42(2):213-220.
[8]扈海波,轩春怡,诸立尚.北京地区城市暴雨积涝灾害风险预评估[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(1):99-108.
[9]林孝松,陈洪凯,王先进,等.重庆市涪陵区G319公路洪灾风险评估研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(2):244-150.
[10]黄朝迎,张清.暴雨洪水灾害对公路交通的影响[J].气象,2000,26(9):12-15.
[11]武永峰,张勇,陈鲜艳,等.湖南省公路交通暴雨风险评价研究[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(5):148-154.
[12]胡继才,万福钧.应用模糊数学[M].武汉:测绘科技大学出版社,1998:7-20.
[13]沈继红,付肖燕,赵玉新.模糊综合评估模型的改进[J].模糊系统与数学,2011,25(3):127-132.
[14]王靖,张金锁.综合评价中权重确定的几种方法比较[J].河北工业大学学报,2001,30(2):52-57.
[15]缪启龙,陈鑫,俞布,等.杭州市暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(2):163-168.
[16]杭州气象志编委会.杭州气象志[M].北京:中华书局出版社,2008:77.
[17]袁慧敏,王秀荣,范广洲,等.长江中下游沿江地区暴雨过程综合评估模型及应用[J].气象,2012,38(10):1189-1195.
[18]石勇,许世远,石纯,等.洪水灾害脆弱性研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(1):41-46.
[19]王艳君,高超,王安乾,等.中国暴雨洪涝灾害的暴露度与脆弱性时空变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(6):391-398.
[20]尹占娥,田鹏飞,迟潇潇.基于情景的1951—2011年中国极端降水风险评估[J].地理学报,2018,73(3):405-413.
[21]林孝松,陈洪凯,王先进,等.西南地区公路洪灾孕灾环境分区[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(2):251-256.
[22]马保成,田伟平,张小荣,等.中国公路综合自然区划分区指标[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2010,30(6):33-38.
[23]中华人民共和国交通部标准.公路自然区划标准:JTJ 003-86[S/OL].
[24]谢炳庚,李晓青.基于栅格空间信息定量化的湖南西部地区生态环境综合评价[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(4):438-443.