机动车限行政策降低了城市空气污染吗?——基于山东省准实验的实证检验
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摘要
在所有控制空气污染的环境政策中,机动车限行以其成本低、简单易行、需要的公共投入较少等特点而最受青睐。然而,数据可得性和模型内生性制约着现有文献关于限行政策对于改善空气质量的因果推断研究。将济南市2009-2013年期间实行的两次短期限行政策作为一次准实验,运用山东省包括济南市在内的17个地级市的面板数据实证检验机动车限行政策对于降低城市空气污染的效果。结果发现,机动车限行政策对于降低空气中SO_2、NO_2、CO和O_3的浓度没有显著效果,而对于降低PM_(10)和API则效果显著。济南在第十一届全运会期间实行的机动车限行政策使PM_(10)和API分别下降了46.3%和44.7%,但随着时间的推移,限行政策的效果在逐渐消退直至完全消失。
As the policy of driving restrictions is less expensive, convenient, and demands fairly smaller public investments compared with other air-cleaning actions, it has become more and more popular in many cities. However, the empirical challenges of data availability and endogeneity impede the identification of causal effects of driving restrictions on air quality. This paper regards the two policies of short-term driving restrictions in Jinan during the study period of 2009 to 2013 as the quasi-experiment to investigate the effects of driving restrictions on air quality. By employing the panel data of all the 17 cities in Shandong province, we find that the driving restrictions during the 11~(th) National Sports Games had no impact on SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 whilst the policy significantly reduced PM_(10) and API by 46.3% and 44.7% respectively. However, the effects gradually vanish over time.
As the policy of driving restrictions is less expensive, convenient, and demands fairly smaller public investments compared with other air-cleaning actions, it has become more and more popular in many cities. However, the empirical challenges of data availability and endogeneity impede the identification of causal effects of driving restrictions on air quality. This paper regards the two policies of short-term driving restrictions in Jinan during the study period of 2009 to 2013 as the quasi-experiment to investigate the effects of driving restrictions on air quality. By employing the panel data of all the 17 cities in Shandong province, we find that the driving restrictions during the 11~(th) National Sports Games had no impact on SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 whilst the policy significantly reduced PM_(10) and API by 46.3% and 44.7% respectively. However, the effects gradually vanish over time.
引文
(1)Greenstone M.,Hanna R.,“Environmental Regulations,Air and Water Pollution,and Infant Mortality in India”,American Economic Review,2014,104(10),pp.30383072.
(2)Auffhammer M.,Kellogg R.,“Clearing the Air?the Effects of Gasoline Content Regulation on Air Quality”,American Economic Review,2011,101(6),pp.26872722.
(3)孙坤鑫:《机动车排放标准的雾霾治理效果研究——基于断点回归设计的分析》,《软科学》2017年第11期。
(4)Davis L.W.,“The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Mexico City”,Journal of Political Economy,2008,116(1),pp.3881.
(5)王振:《从经济学视角看北京市尾号限行政策》,《山西财经大学学报》2015年第11期。
(6)Davis L.W.,“The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Mexico City”,Journal of Political Economy,2008,116(1),pp.3881.
(7)Gallego F.,Montero J.P.,Salas C.,“The Effect of Transport Policies on Car Use:Evidence from Latin American Cities”,Journal of Public Economics,2013,107,pp.4762.
(8)易如等:《北京市机动车尾号限行和油价上调政策效果比较》,《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第12期。
(9)易兰、周忆男、李朝鹏、杨历:《城市机动车限行政策对雾霾污染治理的成效分析》,《中国人口·资源与环境》2018年第10期。
(10)即空气污染指数(Air Pollution Index),是将常规监测的SO2、NO2、PM10浓度简化成为单一的概念性指数值形式,并分级表征空气污染程度和空气质量状况。
(11)曹静、王鑫、钟笑寒:《限行政策是否改善了北京市的空气质量?》,《经济学(季刊)》2014年第4期。
(12)Viard V.B.,Fu S.,“The Effect of Beijing's Driving Restrictions on Pollution and Economic Activity”,Journal of Public Economics,2015,125,pp.98115.
(13)袁晓玲、李浩、杨万平:《机动车限行政策能否有效改善西安市的空气质量?》,《统计与信息论坛》2018年第6期。
(14)漆威、黄恒君、王思文:《机动车限行政策的空气质量效应评估——以兰州市为典型的数据整合分析》,《统计与信息论坛》2015年第9期。
(15)即气溶胶光学厚度(Aerosol Optical Depth),描述气溶胶对光的削减作用,是表征大气浑浊程度的关键物理量。
(16)Chen Y.,Jin G.Z.,Kumar N.,Shi G.,“The Promise of Beijing:Evaluating the Impact of the 2008 Olympic Games on Air Quality”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2013,66(3),pp.424443.
(17)Gu Y.,Deakin E.,Long Y.,“The Effects of Driving Restrictions on Travel Behavior Evidence from Beijing”,Journal of Urban Economics,2017,102,pp.106122.
(18)Liu Y.,Hong Z.,Liu Y.,“Do Driving Restriction Policies Effectively Motivate Commuters to Use Public Transportation”,Energy Policy,2016,90,pp.253261.
(19)Zhang W.,Lawell C.,Umanskaya V.I.,“The Effects of License Platebased Driving Restrictions on Air Quality:Theory and Empirical Evidence”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2017,82,pp.181220.
(20)Davis L.W.,“The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Mexico City”,Journal of Political Economy,2008,116(1),pp.3881.
(21)Guerra E.,MillardBall A.,“Getting Around a Licenseplate Ban:Behavioral Responses to Mexico City's Driving Restriction”,Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,2017,55,pp.113126.
(22)Carrillo P.E.,Malik A.S.,Yoo Y.,“Driving Restrictions that Work?Quito's Pico y Placa Program”,Canadian Journal of Economics,2016,49(4),pp.15361568.
(23)Ye J.,“Better Safe than Sorry?Evidence from Lanzhou's Driving Restriction Policy”,China Economic Review,2017,45,pp.121.
(24)Ma H.,He G.,“Effects of the PostOlympics Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Beijing”,Sustainability,2016,8(9),p.902.
(25)Viard V.B.,Fu S.,“The Effect of Beijing's Driving Restrictions on Pollution and Economic Activity”,Journal of Public Economics,2015,125,pp.98115.
(26)Carrillo P.E.,LopezLuzuriaga A.,Malik A.S.,“Pollution or Crime:The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Criminal Activity”,Journal of Public Economics,2018,164,pp.5069.
(27)陈林、伍海军:《国内双重差分法的研究现状与潜在问题》,《数量经济技术经济研究》2015年第7期。
(28)Dinardo J.,“Natural Experiments and Quasiexperiments”,in Steven N.Durlauf,E.Lawrence (eds.),New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,2008,London:Palgrave Macmillan Publishing.
(1)Coneus K.,Spiess C.K.,“Pollution Exposure and Child Health:Evidence for Infants and Toddlers in Germany”,Journal of Health Economics,2012,31(1),pp.180196.
(2)Currie J.,et al.,“Does Pollution Increase School Absences”,Review of Economics and Statistics,2009,91(4),pp.682694.
(3)Neidell M.J.,“Air pollution,Health,and Socio economic Status:The Effect of Outdoor Air Quality on Childhood Asthma”,Journal of Health Economics,2004,23(6),pp.12091236.
(4)Tanaka S.,“Environmental Regulations on Air Pollution in China and Their Impact on Infant Mortality”,Journal of Health Economics,2015,42,pp.90103.
(2)Auffhammer M.,Kellogg R.,“Clearing the Air?the Effects of Gasoline Content Regulation on Air Quality”,American Economic Review,2011,101(6),pp.26872722.
(3)孙坤鑫:《机动车排放标准的雾霾治理效果研究——基于断点回归设计的分析》,《软科学》2017年第11期。
(4)Davis L.W.,“The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Mexico City”,Journal of Political Economy,2008,116(1),pp.3881.
(5)王振:《从经济学视角看北京市尾号限行政策》,《山西财经大学学报》2015年第11期。
(6)Davis L.W.,“The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Mexico City”,Journal of Political Economy,2008,116(1),pp.3881.
(7)Gallego F.,Montero J.P.,Salas C.,“The Effect of Transport Policies on Car Use:Evidence from Latin American Cities”,Journal of Public Economics,2013,107,pp.4762.
(8)易如等:《北京市机动车尾号限行和油价上调政策效果比较》,《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第12期。
(9)易兰、周忆男、李朝鹏、杨历:《城市机动车限行政策对雾霾污染治理的成效分析》,《中国人口·资源与环境》2018年第10期。
(10)即空气污染指数(Air Pollution Index),是将常规监测的SO2、NO2、PM10浓度简化成为单一的概念性指数值形式,并分级表征空气污染程度和空气质量状况。
(11)曹静、王鑫、钟笑寒:《限行政策是否改善了北京市的空气质量?》,《经济学(季刊)》2014年第4期。
(12)Viard V.B.,Fu S.,“The Effect of Beijing's Driving Restrictions on Pollution and Economic Activity”,Journal of Public Economics,2015,125,pp.98115.
(13)袁晓玲、李浩、杨万平:《机动车限行政策能否有效改善西安市的空气质量?》,《统计与信息论坛》2018年第6期。
(14)漆威、黄恒君、王思文:《机动车限行政策的空气质量效应评估——以兰州市为典型的数据整合分析》,《统计与信息论坛》2015年第9期。
(15)即气溶胶光学厚度(Aerosol Optical Depth),描述气溶胶对光的削减作用,是表征大气浑浊程度的关键物理量。
(16)Chen Y.,Jin G.Z.,Kumar N.,Shi G.,“The Promise of Beijing:Evaluating the Impact of the 2008 Olympic Games on Air Quality”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2013,66(3),pp.424443.
(17)Gu Y.,Deakin E.,Long Y.,“The Effects of Driving Restrictions on Travel Behavior Evidence from Beijing”,Journal of Urban Economics,2017,102,pp.106122.
(18)Liu Y.,Hong Z.,Liu Y.,“Do Driving Restriction Policies Effectively Motivate Commuters to Use Public Transportation”,Energy Policy,2016,90,pp.253261.
(19)Zhang W.,Lawell C.,Umanskaya V.I.,“The Effects of License Platebased Driving Restrictions on Air Quality:Theory and Empirical Evidence”,Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2017,82,pp.181220.
(20)Davis L.W.,“The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Mexico City”,Journal of Political Economy,2008,116(1),pp.3881.
(21)Guerra E.,MillardBall A.,“Getting Around a Licenseplate Ban:Behavioral Responses to Mexico City's Driving Restriction”,Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,2017,55,pp.113126.
(22)Carrillo P.E.,Malik A.S.,Yoo Y.,“Driving Restrictions that Work?Quito's Pico y Placa Program”,Canadian Journal of Economics,2016,49(4),pp.15361568.
(23)Ye J.,“Better Safe than Sorry?Evidence from Lanzhou's Driving Restriction Policy”,China Economic Review,2017,45,pp.121.
(24)Ma H.,He G.,“Effects of the PostOlympics Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Beijing”,Sustainability,2016,8(9),p.902.
(25)Viard V.B.,Fu S.,“The Effect of Beijing's Driving Restrictions on Pollution and Economic Activity”,Journal of Public Economics,2015,125,pp.98115.
(26)Carrillo P.E.,LopezLuzuriaga A.,Malik A.S.,“Pollution or Crime:The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Criminal Activity”,Journal of Public Economics,2018,164,pp.5069.
(27)陈林、伍海军:《国内双重差分法的研究现状与潜在问题》,《数量经济技术经济研究》2015年第7期。
(28)Dinardo J.,“Natural Experiments and Quasiexperiments”,in Steven N.Durlauf,E.Lawrence (eds.),New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,2008,London:Palgrave Macmillan Publishing.
(1)Coneus K.,Spiess C.K.,“Pollution Exposure and Child Health:Evidence for Infants and Toddlers in Germany”,Journal of Health Economics,2012,31(1),pp.180196.
(2)Currie J.,et al.,“Does Pollution Increase School Absences”,Review of Economics and Statistics,2009,91(4),pp.682694.
(3)Neidell M.J.,“Air pollution,Health,and Socio economic Status:The Effect of Outdoor Air Quality on Childhood Asthma”,Journal of Health Economics,2004,23(6),pp.12091236.
(4)Tanaka S.,“Environmental Regulations on Air Pollution in China and Their Impact on Infant Mortality”,Journal of Health Economics,2015,42,pp.90103.