国内外旅游服务贸易逆差研究前沿与展望
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摘要
旅游服务贸易逆差存在与否、贸易差额形成机制怎样和如何促进旅游服务贸易平衡发展是当前我国旅游业发展中面临的新的重大现实问题。在界定旅游服务贸易逆差研究的核心文献和相关文献两类研究对象的基础上,文章首先系统回顾了核心文献的研究前沿,之后回顾了相关文献的研究前沿;发现既有研究存在3个不足:(1)统计测度体系不完善导致对旅游服务贸易逆差存在与否尚存争论;(2)理论支撑不先进导致对旅游服务贸易差额形成机制认识不全面;(3)目标导向不明确导致对旅游服务贸易发展政策制定陷入两难。针对上述不足,提出了可能的解决方法,即3个新的研究方向:(1)基于国际前沿统计体系的我国旅游服务贸易统计测度体系构建与实证研究;(2)基于竞争优势理论的我国旅游服务贸易差额形成机制研究;(3)保障人民日益增长的旅游美好生活需要和贸易开放平衡发展导向的我国旅游服务贸易发展政策研究。文章的意义不在于对旅游服务贸易逆差进行证实或证伪,而在于通过对该领域研究前沿的系统述评,指出存在的不足,并展望可能的研究方向,以利于对我国旅游服务贸易的理论探索与实践指导。
Tourism and travel-related services trade(TTrST) is the most important category of international trade in services both at home and abroad. As China's TTrST has made a new development since 2009, three new and significant questions are not answered properly yet. First,whether China's TTrST deficit exists or not? Second, what causes the TTrST balance to change? Third,how to promote the balanced development of TTrST? Based on the definition of core and related literature on TTrST deficit, this paper firstly reviews research frontier of the core literature, then reviews that of related literature. Three main gaps on this research topic are discovered as follows:(1)the incomplete statistical system of TTrST leads to the controversy about the existence of China's TTrST deficit. Although some efforts have been made to amend the tourism statistical system, the combination of international cutting-edge statistical systems has not been applied, and further empirical study should be discussed.(2) Unadvanced guiding theory leads to incomplete understanding of TTrST balance changes. The current literature focuses less on the background theories, but more on inbound and outbound tourist flows, so the analytical framework should be extended with the four GATS modes of supply.(3) Unclear goal orientation makes policy making process of TTrST into a dilemma. The synthesize role of TTrST in social and economic development should be taken into account in policy making process. In order to fix those three research gaps, this paper puts forward possible solutions,and discusses 3 new research directions.(1) Based on international cutting-edge statistical systems, the establishment of TTrST statistical system should be strengthen and further empirical research should be carried out. Comprehensive application of the international cutting-edge statistical systems is required to build the new statistical system.(2) Based on the theories of competitive advantages and others,further research on the changes in China.s TTrST balance should be worked out with the framework of the four GATS modes of supply.(3) Based on the combination of the growing needs for better tourism life and opening-balanced trade development, further research on China. s TTrST policy should be worked out. The policy making process should take the new development trend into account, and adopt the five development concepts. The contribution of this paper is not to investigate whether China's TTrST deficit exists or not, but to review international and domestic research frontier in this field, to reveal research gaps, and to put forward new research directions, so that China's TTrST could be studied and guided properly.
Tourism and travel-related services trade(TTrST) is the most important category of international trade in services both at home and abroad. As China's TTrST has made a new development since 2009, three new and significant questions are not answered properly yet. First,whether China's TTrST deficit exists or not? Second, what causes the TTrST balance to change? Third,how to promote the balanced development of TTrST? Based on the definition of core and related literature on TTrST deficit, this paper firstly reviews research frontier of the core literature, then reviews that of related literature. Three main gaps on this research topic are discovered as follows:(1)the incomplete statistical system of TTrST leads to the controversy about the existence of China's TTrST deficit. Although some efforts have been made to amend the tourism statistical system, the combination of international cutting-edge statistical systems has not been applied, and further empirical study should be discussed.(2) Unadvanced guiding theory leads to incomplete understanding of TTrST balance changes. The current literature focuses less on the background theories, but more on inbound and outbound tourist flows, so the analytical framework should be extended with the four GATS modes of supply.(3) Unclear goal orientation makes policy making process of TTrST into a dilemma. The synthesize role of TTrST in social and economic development should be taken into account in policy making process. In order to fix those three research gaps, this paper puts forward possible solutions,and discusses 3 new research directions.(1) Based on international cutting-edge statistical systems, the establishment of TTrST statistical system should be strengthen and further empirical research should be carried out. Comprehensive application of the international cutting-edge statistical systems is required to build the new statistical system.(2) Based on the theories of competitive advantages and others,further research on the changes in China.s TTrST balance should be worked out with the framework of the four GATS modes of supply.(3) Based on the combination of the growing needs for better tourism life and opening-balanced trade development, further research on China. s TTrST policy should be worked out. The policy making process should take the new development trend into account, and adopt the five development concepts. The contribution of this paper is not to investigate whether China's TTrST deficit exists or not, but to review international and domestic research frontier in this field, to reveal research gaps, and to put forward new research directions, so that China's TTrST could be studied and guided properly.
引文
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(1)根据http://data.wto.org/统计数据计算获得。
(2)详见《2013年中国国际收支报告》第25页专栏2:服务贸易项下旅游逆差持续扩大。
(1)详见《2009年中国国际收支报告》第8页:“旅游项目由上年的顺差47亿美元转为逆差40亿美元”。
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(1)根据http://data.wto.org/统计数据计算获得。
(2)详见《2013年中国国际收支报告》第25页专栏2:服务贸易项下旅游逆差持续扩大。
(1)详见《2009年中国国际收支报告》第8页:“旅游项目由上年的顺差47亿美元转为逆差40亿美元”。