非常规突发事件的通信保障应急决策研究
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摘要
通信畅通是应对处理突发事件的重要基础,通信保障应急决策直接关系到突发事件发生后应急保障工作的顺利进行。文章确立由决策属性和条件属性构成的非常规突发事件通信保障应急决策指标体系,构建非常规突发事件的通信保障应急决策模型;首先运用优势粗糙集进行属性约简,其次基于最近邻法构建相似历史突发事件集,最后使用灰色关联分析计算灰色关联度并排序,确定能够对当前发生的突发事件提供应急决策支撑的历史突发事件的通信应急决策方案;进一步通过算例表明该模型和方法的有效性和可行性。
Communication is an important basis for dealing with emergencies,and emergency decision making of communication guarantee is directly related to the success of emergency guarantee after the emergencies. The paper establishes an index system of emergency decision making of communication guarantee that contains condition attribute and decision attribute,constructs the model of emergency decision making of communication guarantee. Step 1 is making the attribute reduction by priority rough sets; step 2 is establishing similar historical event sets by nearest neighbor method; step 3 is determining emergency decision projects of communication guarantee by calculating and sorting gray correlation degree; finally,the example demonstrates the effectiveness and feasibility of this method.
Communication is an important basis for dealing with emergencies,and emergency decision making of communication guarantee is directly related to the success of emergency guarantee after the emergencies. The paper establishes an index system of emergency decision making of communication guarantee that contains condition attribute and decision attribute,constructs the model of emergency decision making of communication guarantee. Step 1 is making the attribute reduction by priority rough sets; step 2 is establishing similar historical event sets by nearest neighbor method; step 3 is determining emergency decision projects of communication guarantee by calculating and sorting gray correlation degree; finally,the example demonstrates the effectiveness and feasibility of this method.
引文
[1]樊自甫,王丽花,孙红.基于优势粗糙集构建突发事件应急通信分级模型[J].统计与决策,2015(18):56-59.
[2]钟开斌.应急决策:理论与案例[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2014:1.
[3]樊自甫,王蕾.基于流程的通信保障应急预案有效性评估模型及应用[J].科技管理研究,2016(1):185-189.
[4]樊自甫,胡佳婷,万哓榆.基于模糊综合评价法的应急通信预案实施效果评估研究[J].科技管理研究,2013(22):63-67.
[5]樊自甫,林小雪.非合作博弈的多灾点应急通信资源调度研究[J].山西电子技术,2013(2):71-74.
[6]李欣.情景分析和预案重构在电信网络应急管理中的应用[D].北京:中国科学院大学,2013.
[7]FAN Z,SUN H,WANG L.Research of the classification model based on dominance rough set approach for China emergency communication[J].Mathematical Problems in Engineering,2015,2015(3):1-8.
[8]史培军.再论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(4)6-17.
[9]GRANOVETTER M.Threshold models of collective behavior[J].American Journal of Sociology,1978,83(6):1420-1443.
[10]SUSMAGA R,SLOWIN'SKI R,GRECO S,et al.Computation of reducts and rules in dominance-based rough sets approach[J].Control&Cybernetics,2000,29(4):969-988.
[11]吕跃进,张旭娜,韦碧鹏.基于优势关系粗糙集的模糊综合评价的权重确定[J].统计与决策,2012(20):44-46.
[12]ARROYO J,MATE'C.Forecasting histogram time series with knearest neighbors methods[J].International Journal of Forecasting,2009,25(1):192-207.
[13]SCHAN K,ROGER C.Dynamic memory:a theory of reminding and learning in computers and people[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,1982.
[14]XING G,DING J,CHAI T,et al.Hybrid intelligent parameter estimation based on grey case-based reasoning for laminar cooling process[J].Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence,2012,25(2):418-429.
[2]钟开斌.应急决策:理论与案例[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2014:1.
[3]樊自甫,王蕾.基于流程的通信保障应急预案有效性评估模型及应用[J].科技管理研究,2016(1):185-189.
[4]樊自甫,胡佳婷,万哓榆.基于模糊综合评价法的应急通信预案实施效果评估研究[J].科技管理研究,2013(22):63-67.
[5]樊自甫,林小雪.非合作博弈的多灾点应急通信资源调度研究[J].山西电子技术,2013(2):71-74.
[6]李欣.情景分析和预案重构在电信网络应急管理中的应用[D].北京:中国科学院大学,2013.
[7]FAN Z,SUN H,WANG L.Research of the classification model based on dominance rough set approach for China emergency communication[J].Mathematical Problems in Engineering,2015,2015(3):1-8.
[8]史培军.再论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(4)6-17.
[9]GRANOVETTER M.Threshold models of collective behavior[J].American Journal of Sociology,1978,83(6):1420-1443.
[10]SUSMAGA R,SLOWIN'SKI R,GRECO S,et al.Computation of reducts and rules in dominance-based rough sets approach[J].Control&Cybernetics,2000,29(4):969-988.
[11]吕跃进,张旭娜,韦碧鹏.基于优势关系粗糙集的模糊综合评价的权重确定[J].统计与决策,2012(20):44-46.
[12]ARROYO J,MATE'C.Forecasting histogram time series with knearest neighbors methods[J].International Journal of Forecasting,2009,25(1):192-207.
[13]SCHAN K,ROGER C.Dynamic memory:a theory of reminding and learning in computers and people[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,1982.
[14]XING G,DING J,CHAI T,et al.Hybrid intelligent parameter estimation based on grey case-based reasoning for laminar cooling process[J].Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence,2012,25(2):418-429.