中国的年金谜题与养老金领取行为研究——基于企事业年金领取偏好的调查
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摘要
国际上有关研究发现,退休者在进行养老金领取决策时,通常并不是根据理论上最优的年金化方式领取,而普遍采取一次性领取的方式,这种现象被称为"年金谜题"。本文基于对部分企事业单位职工的问卷调查,研究了我国是否存在年金谜题现象,以及影响老金领取方式选择的主要因素。本研究先从理论模拟分析了不确定支出风险对退休者养老金领取决策的影响,并利用问卷实证研究了影响我国企事业职工的补充养老年金领取的影响因素。本文第一次发现和提出我国的年金谜题现象,同时分析了我国企事业年金领取行为及影响因素。研究发现,流动性需求担忧、投资收益态度、不确定的医疗支出担忧如长期护理费等和养老金默认领取方式对我国企事业年金领取行为偏好都有着重要影响。最后,本文基于发现总结对我国企事业单位的年金方案的设计提出建议。
Annuity Puzzle' has been found widely by literatures,an phenomenon that in reality the percentage willing to annuitize pension is surprisingly low even though annuity is proved to be optimal for retiree theoretically.We carried out survey of employees'preferences on occupational pension withdrawal,and aim to explore the existence of ‘annuity puzzle'in China and understand pension participants'withdrawal behaviors.We analyze the effect of uncertain on the pension participants' withdrawal choices via modelling,also further emprically investigate other influencing factors.The existence of ‘annuity puzzle'in China is firstly found in this paper. We reexamine the influencing effects factors on employees'preferences,and find that different concerns,e.g.illiquidity concerns and health-related concerns,influence their preferences in different manners.We provide suggestions for enterprises to customize their occupational pension plans based on the findings.
Annuity Puzzle' has been found widely by literatures,an phenomenon that in reality the percentage willing to annuitize pension is surprisingly low even though annuity is proved to be optimal for retiree theoretically.We carried out survey of employees'preferences on occupational pension withdrawal,and aim to explore the existence of ‘annuity puzzle'in China and understand pension participants'withdrawal behaviors.We analyze the effect of uncertain on the pension participants' withdrawal choices via modelling,also further emprically investigate other influencing factors.The existence of ‘annuity puzzle'in China is firstly found in this paper. We reexamine the influencing effects factors on employees'preferences,and find that different concerns,e.g.illiquidity concerns and health-related concerns,influence their preferences in different manners.We provide suggestions for enterprises to customize their occupational pension plans based on the findings.
引文
秦云,郑伟.2017.年金谜题的成因及对策研究评述[J].经济学动态,(5):133-141.
石德响.2014.迷茫·享受·孤寂·无奈——从退休生活的四个阶段浅析如何做好退休工作[C]//上海市退休职工管理研究会2013年优秀论文选集.上海:上海退休职工管理研究会.
万晴瑶,卓志,成德义.2014.中国城镇居民养老金年金化需求行为的影响因素分析[J].保险研究,(10):108-123.
Ameriks J,Caplin A,Laufer S,et al.2011.The joy of giving or assisted living?using strategic surveys to separate public care aversion from bequest motives[J].The Journal of Finance,66(2):519-561.
Atchley R C.1985.Social forces and aging:an introduction to social gerontology[M].Belmont,Calif:Wadsworth Publishing Co.
Banerjee S.2013.Annuity and lump-sum decisions in defined benefit plans:the role of plan rules[R].Working Paper,EBRI Issue Brief,Number 381.
Benartzi S,Previtero A,Thaler R H.2011.Annuitization puzzles[J].The Journal of Economic Perspectives,25(4):143-164.
Bernheim B D.1991.How strong are bequest motives?evidence based on estimates of the demand for life insurance and annuities[J].Journal of Political Economy,99(5):899-927.
Beshears J,Choi J J,Laibson D,et al.2011.Behavioral economics perspectives on public sector pension plans[R].NBER Working Paper No.16728.
Beshears J,Choi J J,Laibson D,et al.2014.What makes annuitization more appealing?[J].Journal of Public Economics,116:2-16.
Brown J R,Poterba J M.1999.Joint life annuities and annuity demand by married couples[R].NBER Working Paper No.7199.
Brown J R.2007.Rational and behavioral perspectives on the role of annuities in retirement planning[R].NBER Working Paper No.13537.
Bütler M,Teppa F.2007.The choice between an annuity and a lump sum:results from Swiss pension funds[J].Journal of Public Economics,91(10):1944-1966.
Charness G,Gneezy U.2012.Strong evidence for gender differences in risk taking[J].Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization,83(1):50-58.
Davidoff T,Brown J R,Diamond P A.2005.Annuities and individual welfare[J].The American Economic Review,95(5):1573-1590.
Diamond P A.National debt in a neoclassical growth model[J].The American Economic Review,1965,55(5):1126-1150.
Dushi I,Webb A.2004.Household annuitization decisions:simulations and empirical analyses[J].Journal of Pension Economics and Finance,3(2):109-143.
Finkelstein A,Poterba J.2004.Adverse selection in insurance markets:policyholder evidence from the U.K.annuity market[J].Journal of Political Economy,112(1):183-208.
Friedman B M,Warshawsky M J.1990.The cost of annuities:implications for saving behavior and bequests[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,105(1):135-154.
Hurd M D.1987.Savings of the elderly and desired bequests[J].The American Economic Review,77(3):298-312.
Inkmann J,Lopes P,Michaelides A.2011.How deep is the annuity market participation puzzle?[J].The Review of Financial Studies,24(1):279-319.
Johnson R W,Burman L E,Kobes D I.2004.Annuitized wealth at older ages:evidence from the health and retirement study[R].Final Report to the Employee Benefits Security Administration,U.S.Department of Labor.
Johnson R W,Burman L E,Kobes D I.2004.Annuitized wealth at older ages:evidence from the health and retirement study[R].Final Report to the Employee Benefits Security Administration,U.S.Department of Labor.
Madrian B,Shea D.Peer effects and savings behavior in employer-sponsored savings plans[R].University of Chicago working paper,2000.
Mitchell O S,Poterba J M,Warshawsky M J.1997.New evidence on the money's worth of individual annuities[R].NBER Working Paper No.6002.
Mitchell O S,Utkus S P.Lessons from behavioral finance for retirement plan design[J].Pension design and structure:New lessons from behavioral finance,2004:3-42.
Mottola G R,Utkus S P.2007.Lump sum or annuity?an analysis of choice in DBpension payouts[J].Vanguard Center for Retirement Research,30:1-10.
Murtaugh C M,Kemper P,Spillman B,et al.1997.The amount,distribution,and timing of lifetime nursing home use[J].Medical Care,35(3):204-218.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation.2011.OECD health policy studies help wanted?providing and paying for long-term care:providing and paying for longterm care[R].OECD Publishing.
Pang G B,Warshawsky M.2010.Optimizing the equity-bond-annuity portfolio in retirement:the impact of uncertain health expenses[J].Insurance:Mathematics and Economics,46(1):198-209.
Previtero A.2012.Driving by looking in the rearview mirror:stock returns and annuitization at older ages[Z].Manuscript,University of Western Ontario.
Samuelson P A.An exact consumption-loan model of interest with or without the social contrivance of money[J].Journal of political economy,1958,66(6):467-482.
Schubert R,Brown M,Gysler M,et al.1999.Financial decision-making:are women really more risk averse?[J].The American Economic Review,89(2):381-385.
Sundén A E,Surette B J.1998.Gender differences in the allocation of assets in retirement savings plans[J].The American Economic Review,88(2):207-211.
Warshawsky B,Hussain Z,Gregson D B,et al.Hospital-and community-based surveillance of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus:previous hospitalization is the major risk factor[J].Infection Control&Hospital Epidemiology,2000,21(11):724-727.
Yaari M E.1965.Uncertain lifetime,life insurance,and the theory of the consumer[J].The Review of Economic Studies,32(2):137-150.
(1)《企业年金办法》与《事业单位职业年金试行办法》中规定:企业年金方案应当由企业与工会或职工代表通过集体协商确定,国有及国有控股企业的企业年金方案草案应当提交职工大会或职工代表大会讨论通过;职业年金方案,应当由单位与工会或职工代表通过民主协商确定,方案应当提交职工代表大会或职工大会讨论通过,享受经常性财政补助的事业单位职业年金方案须报经同级财政部门审核同意。企业年金方案与职业年金方案包括参加人员范围、资金筹集方式、职工企业年金个人账户管理式、基金管理方式、计发办法和支付方式、支付年金待遇的条件等。
(2)本文此处及下文中的年金化领取指的是将退休金转换成规则的现金流,支付至其身故,提供类似于年金保险的终身保障。
(3)我国《企业年金试行办法》与《事业单位职业年金试行办法》均明确规定企业年金方案与职业年金方案包括“参加人员范围、资金筹集方式、职工企业年金个人账户管理方式、基金管理方式、计发办法和支付方式、支付年金待遇的条件等”以及“职工在达到国家规定的退休年龄时,可以从本人企业年金个人账户中一次或定期领取企业年金”。
(4)2015年4月6日国务院《国务院办公厅关于印发机关事业单位职业年金办法的通知》中规定“工作人员在达到国家规定的退休条件并依法办理退休手续后,由本人选择按月领取职业年金待遇的方式。可一次性用于购买商业养老保险产品,依据保险契约领取待遇并享受相应的继承权”。
(1)清华大学媒介调查实验室主要从事民意调查、媒体与公共政策研究工作,本次调查样本来自其计算机辅助电话调查系统(CATI)数据库样本。
(1)电话调查的形式覆盖面广,被访者没有在场心理压力,回答准确率高;但是通话时长有限制,比较适合本研究的问卷调研。
(2)有效问卷的受访者需完成接近完整的问卷,允许不回答个别问题。
(3)选取这三个城市是因为我国的企业年金、职业年金规模有限,且主要集中于发达城市的现状。根据人力资源和社会保障部的“2015年度全国企业年金业务数据摘要”,北京、上海、广东省属于全国前三的企事业年金参与直辖市和省份。调查实施选取这三个城市由于其企事业单位员工群体比例高,问卷回收效率高。
(4)问卷未考虑逆向选择、遗赠动机是由于在调查过程中发现受访者对于死亡相关问题敏感性。
(5)调查中向受访者强调每个问题之间的独立性,受访者仅需表达对于各个领取方式的偏好态度。
(6)额度递增领取方式指的是各期领取的养老金在额度上递增的领取方式。
(1)回归结果中的Pseudo R2在同话题研究中较高,如Beshears et al.(2014)的回归结果R2为0.009与0.017。
(1)中国老年社会追踪调查(CLASS),中国人民大学老年学研究所,2014。
石德响.2014.迷茫·享受·孤寂·无奈——从退休生活的四个阶段浅析如何做好退休工作[C]//上海市退休职工管理研究会2013年优秀论文选集.上海:上海退休职工管理研究会.
万晴瑶,卓志,成德义.2014.中国城镇居民养老金年金化需求行为的影响因素分析[J].保险研究,(10):108-123.
Ameriks J,Caplin A,Laufer S,et al.2011.The joy of giving or assisted living?using strategic surveys to separate public care aversion from bequest motives[J].The Journal of Finance,66(2):519-561.
Atchley R C.1985.Social forces and aging:an introduction to social gerontology[M].Belmont,Calif:Wadsworth Publishing Co.
Banerjee S.2013.Annuity and lump-sum decisions in defined benefit plans:the role of plan rules[R].Working Paper,EBRI Issue Brief,Number 381.
Benartzi S,Previtero A,Thaler R H.2011.Annuitization puzzles[J].The Journal of Economic Perspectives,25(4):143-164.
Bernheim B D.1991.How strong are bequest motives?evidence based on estimates of the demand for life insurance and annuities[J].Journal of Political Economy,99(5):899-927.
Beshears J,Choi J J,Laibson D,et al.2011.Behavioral economics perspectives on public sector pension plans[R].NBER Working Paper No.16728.
Beshears J,Choi J J,Laibson D,et al.2014.What makes annuitization more appealing?[J].Journal of Public Economics,116:2-16.
Brown J R,Poterba J M.1999.Joint life annuities and annuity demand by married couples[R].NBER Working Paper No.7199.
Brown J R.2007.Rational and behavioral perspectives on the role of annuities in retirement planning[R].NBER Working Paper No.13537.
Bütler M,Teppa F.2007.The choice between an annuity and a lump sum:results from Swiss pension funds[J].Journal of Public Economics,91(10):1944-1966.
Charness G,Gneezy U.2012.Strong evidence for gender differences in risk taking[J].Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization,83(1):50-58.
Davidoff T,Brown J R,Diamond P A.2005.Annuities and individual welfare[J].The American Economic Review,95(5):1573-1590.
Diamond P A.National debt in a neoclassical growth model[J].The American Economic Review,1965,55(5):1126-1150.
Dushi I,Webb A.2004.Household annuitization decisions:simulations and empirical analyses[J].Journal of Pension Economics and Finance,3(2):109-143.
Finkelstein A,Poterba J.2004.Adverse selection in insurance markets:policyholder evidence from the U.K.annuity market[J].Journal of Political Economy,112(1):183-208.
Friedman B M,Warshawsky M J.1990.The cost of annuities:implications for saving behavior and bequests[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,105(1):135-154.
Hurd M D.1987.Savings of the elderly and desired bequests[J].The American Economic Review,77(3):298-312.
Inkmann J,Lopes P,Michaelides A.2011.How deep is the annuity market participation puzzle?[J].The Review of Financial Studies,24(1):279-319.
Johnson R W,Burman L E,Kobes D I.2004.Annuitized wealth at older ages:evidence from the health and retirement study[R].Final Report to the Employee Benefits Security Administration,U.S.Department of Labor.
Johnson R W,Burman L E,Kobes D I.2004.Annuitized wealth at older ages:evidence from the health and retirement study[R].Final Report to the Employee Benefits Security Administration,U.S.Department of Labor.
Madrian B,Shea D.Peer effects and savings behavior in employer-sponsored savings plans[R].University of Chicago working paper,2000.
Mitchell O S,Poterba J M,Warshawsky M J.1997.New evidence on the money's worth of individual annuities[R].NBER Working Paper No.6002.
Mitchell O S,Utkus S P.Lessons from behavioral finance for retirement plan design[J].Pension design and structure:New lessons from behavioral finance,2004:3-42.
Mottola G R,Utkus S P.2007.Lump sum or annuity?an analysis of choice in DBpension payouts[J].Vanguard Center for Retirement Research,30:1-10.
Murtaugh C M,Kemper P,Spillman B,et al.1997.The amount,distribution,and timing of lifetime nursing home use[J].Medical Care,35(3):204-218.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation.2011.OECD health policy studies help wanted?providing and paying for long-term care:providing and paying for longterm care[R].OECD Publishing.
Pang G B,Warshawsky M.2010.Optimizing the equity-bond-annuity portfolio in retirement:the impact of uncertain health expenses[J].Insurance:Mathematics and Economics,46(1):198-209.
Previtero A.2012.Driving by looking in the rearview mirror:stock returns and annuitization at older ages[Z].Manuscript,University of Western Ontario.
Samuelson P A.An exact consumption-loan model of interest with or without the social contrivance of money[J].Journal of political economy,1958,66(6):467-482.
Schubert R,Brown M,Gysler M,et al.1999.Financial decision-making:are women really more risk averse?[J].The American Economic Review,89(2):381-385.
Sundén A E,Surette B J.1998.Gender differences in the allocation of assets in retirement savings plans[J].The American Economic Review,88(2):207-211.
Warshawsky B,Hussain Z,Gregson D B,et al.Hospital-and community-based surveillance of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus:previous hospitalization is the major risk factor[J].Infection Control&Hospital Epidemiology,2000,21(11):724-727.
Yaari M E.1965.Uncertain lifetime,life insurance,and the theory of the consumer[J].The Review of Economic Studies,32(2):137-150.
(1)《企业年金办法》与《事业单位职业年金试行办法》中规定:企业年金方案应当由企业与工会或职工代表通过集体协商确定,国有及国有控股企业的企业年金方案草案应当提交职工大会或职工代表大会讨论通过;职业年金方案,应当由单位与工会或职工代表通过民主协商确定,方案应当提交职工代表大会或职工大会讨论通过,享受经常性财政补助的事业单位职业年金方案须报经同级财政部门审核同意。企业年金方案与职业年金方案包括参加人员范围、资金筹集方式、职工企业年金个人账户管理式、基金管理方式、计发办法和支付方式、支付年金待遇的条件等。
(2)本文此处及下文中的年金化领取指的是将退休金转换成规则的现金流,支付至其身故,提供类似于年金保险的终身保障。
(3)我国《企业年金试行办法》与《事业单位职业年金试行办法》均明确规定企业年金方案与职业年金方案包括“参加人员范围、资金筹集方式、职工企业年金个人账户管理方式、基金管理方式、计发办法和支付方式、支付年金待遇的条件等”以及“职工在达到国家规定的退休年龄时,可以从本人企业年金个人账户中一次或定期领取企业年金”。
(4)2015年4月6日国务院《国务院办公厅关于印发机关事业单位职业年金办法的通知》中规定“工作人员在达到国家规定的退休条件并依法办理退休手续后,由本人选择按月领取职业年金待遇的方式。可一次性用于购买商业养老保险产品,依据保险契约领取待遇并享受相应的继承权”。
(1)清华大学媒介调查实验室主要从事民意调查、媒体与公共政策研究工作,本次调查样本来自其计算机辅助电话调查系统(CATI)数据库样本。
(1)电话调查的形式覆盖面广,被访者没有在场心理压力,回答准确率高;但是通话时长有限制,比较适合本研究的问卷调研。
(2)有效问卷的受访者需完成接近完整的问卷,允许不回答个别问题。
(3)选取这三个城市是因为我国的企业年金、职业年金规模有限,且主要集中于发达城市的现状。根据人力资源和社会保障部的“2015年度全国企业年金业务数据摘要”,北京、上海、广东省属于全国前三的企事业年金参与直辖市和省份。调查实施选取这三个城市由于其企事业单位员工群体比例高,问卷回收效率高。
(4)问卷未考虑逆向选择、遗赠动机是由于在调查过程中发现受访者对于死亡相关问题敏感性。
(5)调查中向受访者强调每个问题之间的独立性,受访者仅需表达对于各个领取方式的偏好态度。
(6)额度递增领取方式指的是各期领取的养老金在额度上递增的领取方式。
(1)回归结果中的Pseudo R2在同话题研究中较高,如Beshears et al.(2014)的回归结果R2为0.009与0.017。
(1)中国老年社会追踪调查(CLASS),中国人民大学老年学研究所,2014。