标准化径流指数在阿克苏河水文干旱特征识别中的应用
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摘要
阿克苏河位于丝绸之路经济带重要通道,是典型的中亚跨境河流,阿克苏丰富的水资源成为沿岸各国争夺的焦点。针对阿克苏河未来水资源评估和管理的迫切需要,以阿克苏河干流月径流为数据基础,结合径流距平百分比,采用标准化径流指数(Standardized Runoff Index,SRI)辨识阿克苏河水文干旱事件,并验证了水文干旱识别的合理性。结果表明:SRI丰枯等级划分临界值在阿克苏河能够有效地识别水文干旱事件及其干旱等级,SRI趋势分析发现未来阿克苏河春、夏季洪水和冬旱现象的可能性在逐渐增大,水资源季节差异将越来越明显,这将是未来水资源合理利用和管理的一个新挑战。
In view of the urgent needs of water resources assessment and management in the Aksu River in future,the study tried to discuss the possibility of using the standardized runoff index( SRI) to identify the hydrological drought events in the Aksu River. By Combining with the percentage of runoff anomaly,the critical value of the hydrological drought grade was determined by the SRI. The results showed that the SRI can effectively identify the hydrological drought events of the Aksu River,and the trends of SRI under different seasons showed that the possibility of the flood in spring,summer and drought in winter in the Aksu River was gradually increasing,which would increase the risk for water resource utilization and management.
In view of the urgent needs of water resources assessment and management in the Aksu River in future,the study tried to discuss the possibility of using the standardized runoff index( SRI) to identify the hydrological drought events in the Aksu River. By Combining with the percentage of runoff anomaly,the critical value of the hydrological drought grade was determined by the SRI. The results showed that the SRI can effectively identify the hydrological drought events of the Aksu River,and the trends of SRI under different seasons showed that the possibility of the flood in spring,summer and drought in winter in the Aksu River was gradually increasing,which would increase the risk for water resource utilization and management.
引文
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[21]张玉虎,刘凯力,陈秋华,等.区域气象干旱特征多变量Copula分析———以阿克苏河流域为例[J].地理科学,2014,34(12):1480-1487.
[22]施雅风,沈永平,李栋梁,等.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(2):152-164.
[23]陈亚宁,王怀军,王志成,等.西北干旱区极端气候水文事件特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(1):1-9.
[2] CHEN Y N,TAKEUCHI K,XU C C et al. Regional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin,China[J]. Hydrological Processes,2006,20(10):2207-2216.
[3]叶柏松,赵成义,姜逢清,等.近300a来塔里木河流域旱涝灾害特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2014,36:173-182.
[4]ZHANG Q,GU X H,SINGH V P,et al. Magnitude,frequency and timing of floods in the Tarim River basin,China:Changes,causes and implications[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2016,139:44-55.
[5]陈亚宁,王怀军,王志成,等.西北干旱区极端气候水文事件特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(1):1-9.
[6]孙桂丽,陈亚宁,李卫红,等.新疆极端水文事件的时空分布特征[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(3):119-125.
[7]耿鸿江,沈必成.水文干旱的定义及其意义[J].干旱地区农业研究,1992,10(4):91-94.
[8]闫慧洁,张艳波.自然灾害对阿克苏地区农业影响的分析[J].新疆农垦科技,2016(2):53-54.
[9]陈子燊,刘占明,黄强.西江水文干旱历时与强度的遭遇概率分析[J].湖泊科学,2013,25(4):576-582.
[10]孙鹏,张强,白云岗,等.基于马尔科夫模型的新疆水文气象干旱研究[J].地理研究,2014,33(9):1647-1657.
[11]TRAMBAUER P,MASKEY S,WERNER M. Identification and simulation of space-time variability of past hydrological drought events in the Limpopo River basin,southern Africa[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences[J]. 2014,18(8):2925-2942.
[12]VU M T,RAGHAVAN V S,LIONG S Y. Ensemble climate projection for hydro-meteorological drought over a river basin in Central Highland,Vietnam[J]. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering,2015,19.
[13]邵进,李毅,宋松柏.标准化径流指数计算的新方法及其应用[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(6):79-87.
[14]吴杰峰,陈兴伟,高路,等.基于标准化径流指数的区域水文干旱指数构建与识别[J].山地学报,2016,34(3):282-289.
[15]KHEDUN C P,CHOWDHARY H,MISHRA A K,et al.Analysis of drought severity and duration based on runoff derived from the Noah Land Surface Model[R]. Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts,2011.
[16]KESKIN F,SORMAN A U. Assessment of the dry and wet period severity with hydrometeorological index[J].International Journal of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering,2010,2(2):29-39.
[17]刘新华,徐海量,凌洪波,等.阿克苏河源流区径流量与降水量丰枯变化和相关性研究[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(3):741-750.
[18]陈青青,陈超群,杨志勇,等.阿克苏河径流演变及其对气候变化的响应[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(1):88-99.
[19]柏铃,陈忠升,王充,等.西北干旱区阿克苏河径流对气候波动的多尺度响应[J].地理科学,2017,37(5):799-806.
[20]李思诺.变化环境下阿克苏河流域干旱演变特征分析[D].河北工程大学,2015.
[21]张玉虎,刘凯力,陈秋华,等.区域气象干旱特征多变量Copula分析———以阿克苏河流域为例[J].地理科学,2014,34(12):1480-1487.
[22]施雅风,沈永平,李栋梁,等.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(2):152-164.
[23]陈亚宁,王怀军,王志成,等.西北干旱区极端气候水文事件特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(1):1-9.