中国旅行社业增长的要素贡献与空间分异
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摘要
文章构建了中国旅行社业柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的增加值模型,利用1997—2015年的区域面板数据来测算劳动、资本和全要素生产率对旅行社业增长的贡献和空间分异特征。研究表明:中国旅行社业的增长主要由要素驱动,全要素生产率无论是增长率和贡献率都非常低。从空间分异看,在东部地区,资本是旅行社业增长的主要驱动力,而在中部和西部地区,劳动是旅行社业增长的主要驱动力。研究结论较为符合"新结构经济学"的理论预期。该文的贡献还包括提出了利用旅行社业营业税金及附加数据来推导行业增加值的方法。
This paper built the value-added model of the Cobb-Douglas production function of China.s travel agency industry. The regional panel data from 1997 to 2015 was used to estimate the contribution and spatial differentiation characteristics of labor, capital and total factor productivity(TFP) to the growth of travel agency industry. In the previous literature which measure total factor productivity(TFP) of travel agencies, most took the operating income of travel agencies as the output index and the capital and labor of travel agencies as the input index. There was no estimation of intermediate products. This paper used the operating tax and additional data of travel agencies to deduce the added value of the industry. The research shows that the growth of China.s travel agency industry is mainly driven by factors, and total factor productivity(TFP) is very low in terms of growth rate and contribution rate. From the perspective of spatial differentiation, in the eastern region, capital is the main driving force for the growth of the travel agency industry, while in the central and western regions, labor is the main driving force.The conclusion is in line with the theoretical expectation of"new structural economics". The driving force of the travel agency industry growth is endogenously determined by the factor endowment structure of the region. With the price mechanism, in the economically developed regions of China(mainly in the east), the endowment structure of factors is shown as relatively abundant capital, and the travel agency industry shows the characteristics of capital-intensive industries, whose growth is mainly driven by capital. However, in economically underdeveloped regions(mainly the central and western regions), the endowment structure of factors is reflected in the relatively abundant labor force, and the travel agency industry shows the characteristics of labor-intensive industries, whose growth is mainly driven by labor. In terms of format and products, most travel agencies mainly focused on reception business in economically underdeveloped regions.The causes of low total factor productivity(TFP) of travel agencies are as follows. Firstly, the nonpatentability of tourism products leads to the weakening of travel agencies. enthusiasm for product innovation. Secondly, the process innovation of travel agencies depends on the degree of vertical integration, which is endogenous to the endowment structure of regional factors. Thirdly, due to the restrictions on foreign investment, domestic travel agencies have lost many opportunities to learn from foreign travel agencies, failing to optimize business processes and improve service quality.
This paper built the value-added model of the Cobb-Douglas production function of China.s travel agency industry. The regional panel data from 1997 to 2015 was used to estimate the contribution and spatial differentiation characteristics of labor, capital and total factor productivity(TFP) to the growth of travel agency industry. In the previous literature which measure total factor productivity(TFP) of travel agencies, most took the operating income of travel agencies as the output index and the capital and labor of travel agencies as the input index. There was no estimation of intermediate products. This paper used the operating tax and additional data of travel agencies to deduce the added value of the industry. The research shows that the growth of China.s travel agency industry is mainly driven by factors, and total factor productivity(TFP) is very low in terms of growth rate and contribution rate. From the perspective of spatial differentiation, in the eastern region, capital is the main driving force for the growth of the travel agency industry, while in the central and western regions, labor is the main driving force.The conclusion is in line with the theoretical expectation of"new structural economics". The driving force of the travel agency industry growth is endogenously determined by the factor endowment structure of the region. With the price mechanism, in the economically developed regions of China(mainly in the east), the endowment structure of factors is shown as relatively abundant capital, and the travel agency industry shows the characteristics of capital-intensive industries, whose growth is mainly driven by capital. However, in economically underdeveloped regions(mainly the central and western regions), the endowment structure of factors is reflected in the relatively abundant labor force, and the travel agency industry shows the characteristics of labor-intensive industries, whose growth is mainly driven by labor. In terms of format and products, most travel agencies mainly focused on reception business in economically underdeveloped regions.The causes of low total factor productivity(TFP) of travel agencies are as follows. Firstly, the nonpatentability of tourism products leads to the weakening of travel agencies. enthusiasm for product innovation. Secondly, the process innovation of travel agencies depends on the degree of vertical integration, which is endogenous to the endowment structure of regional factors. Thirdly, due to the restrictions on foreign investment, domestic travel agencies have lost many opportunities to learn from foreign travel agencies, failing to optimize business processes and improve service quality.
引文
[1]ZUO Bing,BAO Jigang.Tourism total factor productivity and its regional variation in China from 1992 to 2005[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2008,63(4):417-427.[左冰,保继刚.1992-2005年中国旅游业全要素生产率及省际差异[J].地理学报,2008,63(4):417-427.]
[2]HUANG Xiujuan.Analysis on contribution of factors to the economic growth of tourism industry in China[J].Technology Economics,2009,28(7):67-72.[黄秀娟.中国旅游产业经济增长的因素贡献分析[J].技术经济,2009,28(7):67-72.]
[3]ZUO Bing.An empirical study of the factors influencing the tourism economic growth of China[J].Journal of Business Economics,2011,(10):82-90.[左冰.中国旅游经济增长因素及其贡献度分析[J].商业经济与管理,2011,(10):82-90.]
[4]WU Yuming.Spatial panel econometric analysis of tourism economic growth and its spillover effects[J].Tourism Tribune,2014,29(2):16-24.[吴玉鸣.旅游经济增长及其溢出效应的空间面板计量经济分析[J].旅游学刊,2014,29(2):16-24.]
[5]KOHLI U R.Relative price effects and the demand for imports[J].Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne D`economique,2001,15(2):205-219.
[6]CHENG Yingwen.Study on the Tourism Economy Growth of China and Its Determinants[D].Beijing:Beijing International Studies University,2010:190.[成英文.中国旅游经济增长及其决定因素研究[D].北京:北京第二外国语学院,2010:190.]
[7]BARROS C P,DIEKE P U C.Analyzing the total productivity change in travel agencies.[J].Tourism Analysis,2007,12(1-2):27-37.
[8]K?KSAL C D,AKSU A A.Efficiency evaluation of A-group travel agencies with data envelopment analysis(DEA):A case study in the Antalya region,Turkey[J].Tourism Management,2007,28(3):830-834.
[9]FUENTES R.Efficiency of travel agencies:A case study of Alicante,Spain.[J].Tourism Management,2011,32(1):75-87.
[10]ZHAO Lilu,DUAN Wenjun.The measurement and analysis of total factor productivity of China’s travel agency industry[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012,26(8):180-183.[赵立禄,段文军.我国旅行社业全要素生产率的测算与分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(8):180-183.]
[11]WU Ruijie.Technical efficiency and changes of TFP in China.s travel agencies at the provincial level from 2001 to 2010[J].Journal of Yunnan Nationalities University:Social Sciences Edition,2013,30(4):93-99.[武瑞杰.旅行社技术效率和全要素生产率变化研究--基于2001-2010年省际面板数据[J].云南民族大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2013,30(4):93-99.]
[12]ZHAO Haitao,GAO Li.The dynamic change of operating efficiency of China.s travel agency industry:An analysis based on Malmquist index[J].Enterprise Economy,2013,(2):114-117.[赵海涛,高力.中国旅行社业经营效率的动态变化--基于Malmquist指数法的分析[J].企业经济,2013,(2):114-117.]
[13]SUN Jingrong,ZHANG Jie,ZHANG Jinhe,et al.Spatial differentiation of the efficiency of Chinese regional travel service industry[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(4):430-437.[孙景荣,张捷,章锦河,等.中国区域旅行社业效率的空间分异研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(4):430-437.]
[14]HU Zhiyi.An analysis of the efficiency characteristics of the travel agency industry of China based on a DEA-Malmquist model[J].Tourism Tribune,2015,30(5):23-30.[胡志毅.基于DEA-Malmquist模型的中国旅行社业发展效率特征分析[J].旅游学刊,2015,30(5):23-30.]
[15]SONG Rui.The total factor productivity of tourism:An empirical analysis based on the comparison of star hotels,travel agencies and tourist attractions[J].Journal of Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,2017,(6):72-80.[宋瑞.我国旅游业全要素生产率研究--基于分行业数据的实证分析[J].中国社会科学院研究生院学报,2017,(6):72-80.]
[16]CAI Fang,WANG Dewen,QU Yue.Flying geese within borders:How China sustains its labor-intensive industries?[J].Economic Research Journal,2009,(9):4-14.[蔡昉,王德文,曲玥.中国产业升级的大国雁阵模型分析[J].经济研究,2009,(9):4-14.]
[17]LIU Xingkai,ZHANG Cheng.The total factor productivity growth and convergence analysis for China’s service industry[J].The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2010,(3):55-67.[刘兴凯,张诚.中国服务业全要素生产率增长及其收敛分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,(3):55-67.]
[18]YANG Xiangyang,XU Xiang.Empirical analysis on the growth of total factor productivity of China’s service industry[J].Economist,2006,(3):68-76.[杨向阳,徐翔.中国服务业全要素生产率增长的实证分析[J].经济学家,2006,(3):68-76.]
[19]LUO Hao,YAN Yuyao,YANG Yang.Can comparative advantage theory explains tourism growth models of Chinese provinces?An inter-provincial study on the contribution of production factors to tourism growth and the comparative Advantage of Tourism Resources in China[J].Tourism Tribune,2016,31(3):43-53.[罗浩,颜钰荛,杨旸.中国各省的旅游增长方式“因地制宜”吗?--中国省际旅游增长要素贡献与旅游资源比较优势研究[J].旅游学刊,2016,31(3):43-53.]
[20]HUANG Yingna,ZHANG Wei,WANG Xuejun.An econometric estimation and selection on the production function in an environmental CGE model[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2003,23(3):350-354.[黄英娜,张巍,王学军.环境CGE模型中生产函数的计量经济估算与选择[J].环境科学学报,2003,23(3):350-354.]
[21]LIN Yifu.Theoretical basis and development direction of New Structural Economics[J].Economic Review,2017,(3):4-16.[林毅夫.新结构经济学的理论基础和发展方向[J].经济评论,2017,(3):4-16.]
[22]ZHANG Lingyun.Ownership reform,business scale and market mechanism:Discussion with two authors of articles on Tourism Tribune[J].Tourism Tribune,2005,20(6):54-57.[张凌云.旅行社产权改革、规模化经营和市场制度--兼与《旅游学刊》中两篇论文的作者商榷[J].旅游学刊,2005,20(6):54-57.]
[23]ZHU Yilan.A Study on Transnational Operation Patterns of Travel Services[D].Beijing:Beijing International Studies University,2006:80.[朱易兰.旅行社跨国经营模式研究[D].北京:北京第二外国语学院,2006:80.]
(1)资料来源:文化和旅游部,http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn/auto255/201902/t20190212_837271.html?keywords=, 2018-06-16.
(2)数据来源:文化和旅游部,http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn/auto255/201711/t20171108_832371. html?keywords=, 2018-06-16.
(1)资本用旅游业资本形成总额占区域GDP比重表示,劳动用旅游从业人员占该区域从业人员数的比重表示。
(1)1993年,国务院令第136号《中华人民共和国营业税暂行条例》第五条第(二)项规定,旅游企业组织旅游团到中华人民共和国境外旅游,在境外改由其他旅游企业接团的,以全程旅游费用减去付给该接团企业的旅游费后的余额为营业额。同年,《中华人民共和国营业税暂行条例实施细则》第二十四条规定,旅游业务,以全部收费减去为旅游者付给其他单位的食、宿和交通费用后的余额为营业额。旅游企业组织旅客在境内旅游,改由其他旅游企业接团的,其销售额比照条例第五条第(二)项规定确定。2008年,国务院修订了《中华人民共和国营业税暂行条例》,新条例第五条第(二)项依然规定,纳税人从事旅游业务的,以其取得的全部价款和价外费用扣除替旅游者支付给其他单位或者个人的住宿费、餐费、交通费、旅游景点门票和支付给其他接团旅游企业的旅游费后的余额为营业额。
(2)该表述来源于历年《中国旅游统计年鉴》附录中的主要统计指标解释。
(3)《中国国民经济核算体系(2002)》对增加值的定义是:“常住单位在生产过程中创造的新增加值和固定资产转移价值。增加值可按生产法计算也可按收入法计算,按生产法计算,等于总产出价值扣除中间投入价值的余额”,反映了增加值的形成过程;“按收入法计算,等于劳动者报酬、生产税净额、固定资产折旧和营业盈余之和”,反映了生产成果的分配。“从实物形态看,中间投入具体包括生产者在生产经营过程中所消耗的原料、材料、燃料、动力等货物,以及运输、邮电、仓储、修理、金融、报销、广告等服务。这些货物或服务在生产过程中要么改变了形式,要么被完全用掉。从价值形态看,中间投入属于生产过程中一次性转移到产品价值中去的部分,不是生产者自己创造的价值。”值得说明的是,“作为中间投入的货物和服务都是非耐用货物与服务,它们一次性地或短期地运用于生产过程,其价值随之转移到产品价值之中。因此不能把作为固定资产使用的耐用性货物消耗计入中间投入”。
(1)本文对东部、中部、西部三大地带的划分依据为国家统计局对三大地带的划分,详见http://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=E0103。
(2)囿于篇幅,正文中删除了变量的描述性统计,模型的平稳性检验、协整检验以及豪斯曼检验的计算结果,感兴趣的读者可以向作者索取。
(1)囿于篇幅,这里删除了平稳性检验、协整检验以及豪斯曼检验的计算结果。
(1)资料来源:中华人民共和国国家旅游局.中国旅游统计年鉴2016[M].北京.中国旅游出版社.
[2]HUANG Xiujuan.Analysis on contribution of factors to the economic growth of tourism industry in China[J].Technology Economics,2009,28(7):67-72.[黄秀娟.中国旅游产业经济增长的因素贡献分析[J].技术经济,2009,28(7):67-72.]
[3]ZUO Bing.An empirical study of the factors influencing the tourism economic growth of China[J].Journal of Business Economics,2011,(10):82-90.[左冰.中国旅游经济增长因素及其贡献度分析[J].商业经济与管理,2011,(10):82-90.]
[4]WU Yuming.Spatial panel econometric analysis of tourism economic growth and its spillover effects[J].Tourism Tribune,2014,29(2):16-24.[吴玉鸣.旅游经济增长及其溢出效应的空间面板计量经济分析[J].旅游学刊,2014,29(2):16-24.]
[5]KOHLI U R.Relative price effects and the demand for imports[J].Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne D`economique,2001,15(2):205-219.
[6]CHENG Yingwen.Study on the Tourism Economy Growth of China and Its Determinants[D].Beijing:Beijing International Studies University,2010:190.[成英文.中国旅游经济增长及其决定因素研究[D].北京:北京第二外国语学院,2010:190.]
[7]BARROS C P,DIEKE P U C.Analyzing the total productivity change in travel agencies.[J].Tourism Analysis,2007,12(1-2):27-37.
[8]K?KSAL C D,AKSU A A.Efficiency evaluation of A-group travel agencies with data envelopment analysis(DEA):A case study in the Antalya region,Turkey[J].Tourism Management,2007,28(3):830-834.
[9]FUENTES R.Efficiency of travel agencies:A case study of Alicante,Spain.[J].Tourism Management,2011,32(1):75-87.
[10]ZHAO Lilu,DUAN Wenjun.The measurement and analysis of total factor productivity of China’s travel agency industry[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012,26(8):180-183.[赵立禄,段文军.我国旅行社业全要素生产率的测算与分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(8):180-183.]
[11]WU Ruijie.Technical efficiency and changes of TFP in China.s travel agencies at the provincial level from 2001 to 2010[J].Journal of Yunnan Nationalities University:Social Sciences Edition,2013,30(4):93-99.[武瑞杰.旅行社技术效率和全要素生产率变化研究--基于2001-2010年省际面板数据[J].云南民族大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2013,30(4):93-99.]
[12]ZHAO Haitao,GAO Li.The dynamic change of operating efficiency of China.s travel agency industry:An analysis based on Malmquist index[J].Enterprise Economy,2013,(2):114-117.[赵海涛,高力.中国旅行社业经营效率的动态变化--基于Malmquist指数法的分析[J].企业经济,2013,(2):114-117.]
[13]SUN Jingrong,ZHANG Jie,ZHANG Jinhe,et al.Spatial differentiation of the efficiency of Chinese regional travel service industry[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(4):430-437.[孙景荣,张捷,章锦河,等.中国区域旅行社业效率的空间分异研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(4):430-437.]
[14]HU Zhiyi.An analysis of the efficiency characteristics of the travel agency industry of China based on a DEA-Malmquist model[J].Tourism Tribune,2015,30(5):23-30.[胡志毅.基于DEA-Malmquist模型的中国旅行社业发展效率特征分析[J].旅游学刊,2015,30(5):23-30.]
[15]SONG Rui.The total factor productivity of tourism:An empirical analysis based on the comparison of star hotels,travel agencies and tourist attractions[J].Journal of Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,2017,(6):72-80.[宋瑞.我国旅游业全要素生产率研究--基于分行业数据的实证分析[J].中国社会科学院研究生院学报,2017,(6):72-80.]
[16]CAI Fang,WANG Dewen,QU Yue.Flying geese within borders:How China sustains its labor-intensive industries?[J].Economic Research Journal,2009,(9):4-14.[蔡昉,王德文,曲玥.中国产业升级的大国雁阵模型分析[J].经济研究,2009,(9):4-14.]
[17]LIU Xingkai,ZHANG Cheng.The total factor productivity growth and convergence analysis for China’s service industry[J].The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2010,(3):55-67.[刘兴凯,张诚.中国服务业全要素生产率增长及其收敛分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2010,(3):55-67.]
[18]YANG Xiangyang,XU Xiang.Empirical analysis on the growth of total factor productivity of China’s service industry[J].Economist,2006,(3):68-76.[杨向阳,徐翔.中国服务业全要素生产率增长的实证分析[J].经济学家,2006,(3):68-76.]
[19]LUO Hao,YAN Yuyao,YANG Yang.Can comparative advantage theory explains tourism growth models of Chinese provinces?An inter-provincial study on the contribution of production factors to tourism growth and the comparative Advantage of Tourism Resources in China[J].Tourism Tribune,2016,31(3):43-53.[罗浩,颜钰荛,杨旸.中国各省的旅游增长方式“因地制宜”吗?--中国省际旅游增长要素贡献与旅游资源比较优势研究[J].旅游学刊,2016,31(3):43-53.]
[20]HUANG Yingna,ZHANG Wei,WANG Xuejun.An econometric estimation and selection on the production function in an environmental CGE model[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2003,23(3):350-354.[黄英娜,张巍,王学军.环境CGE模型中生产函数的计量经济估算与选择[J].环境科学学报,2003,23(3):350-354.]
[21]LIN Yifu.Theoretical basis and development direction of New Structural Economics[J].Economic Review,2017,(3):4-16.[林毅夫.新结构经济学的理论基础和发展方向[J].经济评论,2017,(3):4-16.]
[22]ZHANG Lingyun.Ownership reform,business scale and market mechanism:Discussion with two authors of articles on Tourism Tribune[J].Tourism Tribune,2005,20(6):54-57.[张凌云.旅行社产权改革、规模化经营和市场制度--兼与《旅游学刊》中两篇论文的作者商榷[J].旅游学刊,2005,20(6):54-57.]
[23]ZHU Yilan.A Study on Transnational Operation Patterns of Travel Services[D].Beijing:Beijing International Studies University,2006:80.[朱易兰.旅行社跨国经营模式研究[D].北京:北京第二外国语学院,2006:80.]
(1)资料来源:文化和旅游部,http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn/auto255/201902/t20190212_837271.html?keywords=, 2018-06-16.
(2)数据来源:文化和旅游部,http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn/auto255/201711/t20171108_832371. html?keywords=, 2018-06-16.
(1)资本用旅游业资本形成总额占区域GDP比重表示,劳动用旅游从业人员占该区域从业人员数的比重表示。
(1)1993年,国务院令第136号《中华人民共和国营业税暂行条例》第五条第(二)项规定,旅游企业组织旅游团到中华人民共和国境外旅游,在境外改由其他旅游企业接团的,以全程旅游费用减去付给该接团企业的旅游费后的余额为营业额。同年,《中华人民共和国营业税暂行条例实施细则》第二十四条规定,旅游业务,以全部收费减去为旅游者付给其他单位的食、宿和交通费用后的余额为营业额。旅游企业组织旅客在境内旅游,改由其他旅游企业接团的,其销售额比照条例第五条第(二)项规定确定。2008年,国务院修订了《中华人民共和国营业税暂行条例》,新条例第五条第(二)项依然规定,纳税人从事旅游业务的,以其取得的全部价款和价外费用扣除替旅游者支付给其他单位或者个人的住宿费、餐费、交通费、旅游景点门票和支付给其他接团旅游企业的旅游费后的余额为营业额。
(2)该表述来源于历年《中国旅游统计年鉴》附录中的主要统计指标解释。
(3)《中国国民经济核算体系(2002)》对增加值的定义是:“常住单位在生产过程中创造的新增加值和固定资产转移价值。增加值可按生产法计算也可按收入法计算,按生产法计算,等于总产出价值扣除中间投入价值的余额”,反映了增加值的形成过程;“按收入法计算,等于劳动者报酬、生产税净额、固定资产折旧和营业盈余之和”,反映了生产成果的分配。“从实物形态看,中间投入具体包括生产者在生产经营过程中所消耗的原料、材料、燃料、动力等货物,以及运输、邮电、仓储、修理、金融、报销、广告等服务。这些货物或服务在生产过程中要么改变了形式,要么被完全用掉。从价值形态看,中间投入属于生产过程中一次性转移到产品价值中去的部分,不是生产者自己创造的价值。”值得说明的是,“作为中间投入的货物和服务都是非耐用货物与服务,它们一次性地或短期地运用于生产过程,其价值随之转移到产品价值之中。因此不能把作为固定资产使用的耐用性货物消耗计入中间投入”。
(1)本文对东部、中部、西部三大地带的划分依据为国家统计局对三大地带的划分,详见http://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=E0103。
(2)囿于篇幅,正文中删除了变量的描述性统计,模型的平稳性检验、协整检验以及豪斯曼检验的计算结果,感兴趣的读者可以向作者索取。
(1)囿于篇幅,这里删除了平稳性检验、协整检验以及豪斯曼检验的计算结果。
(1)资料来源:中华人民共和国国家旅游局.中国旅游统计年鉴2016[M].北京.中国旅游出版社.