基于最小二乘法的雷暴天气下飞行改航决策研究
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摘要
飞机在飞行中若受到雷暴天气的影响,轻则产生颠簸,重则受到雷击和冰雹。为削弱雷暴天气的影响,采用两运动物体相撞模型,判断飞机沿预计航线飞行是否会在未来某时间点进入雷暴环境中并提前改变飞行航迹,从而防止雷暴天气对飞机造成的不良影响。先通过对气象雷达回波图的分析,找到机场终端区有可能影响飞机飞行的雷暴,并根据过去时间点雷暴的位置及状态,采用最小二乘法预测雷暴运动的轨迹方程,进而通过方差分析找出最接近雷暴运动的轨迹方程;再根据飞机飞行的预计航线、速度计算出飞机计划飞行的运动轨迹方程;最后由雷暴和飞机相对时间的运动轨迹方程,可求出未来何时飞机与雷暴之间有最小的距离,并利用数理统计学中的区间估计方法来评估其可行性,由此判断飞机飞行是否会受到雷暴天气的影响,若受影响飞机则需要改变原飞行航迹避开雷暴。案例验证结果表明此方法具有一定的可行性和可靠性。
If the aircraft is affected by thunderstorms during flight,it is light to cause bumps and heavy lightning and hail.In order to reduce the effect of thunderstorms,a two-motion object collision model is used to determine whether the aircraft′s flight along the projected route will enter a thunderstorm environment at some point in the future and change the flight track in advance,thus preventing the adverse effects of thunderstorms on aircrafts.Based on the analysis of the meteorological radar echo map,this paper finds the thunderstorm that may affect the flight in the terminal area of an airport,predicts the motion trajectory equation of the thunderstorm by using the least squares method according to the position and state of thunderstorm in the past time point,and then finds out the motion trajectory equation closest to the thunderstorm by variance analysis.Based on the estimated route and speed of the aircraft,the paper calculates the trajectory equation of the aircraft′s planned flight,and obtains the minimum distance between the aircraft and the thunderstorm and the motion equation of the aircraft relative time,and then evaluates the feasibility by mathematical statistics,so as to determine whether the flight will be affected and,if affected,changes the original flight track to avoid thunderstorms.The case verification results show that the method has certain feasibility.
If the aircraft is affected by thunderstorms during flight,it is light to cause bumps and heavy lightning and hail.In order to reduce the effect of thunderstorms,a two-motion object collision model is used to determine whether the aircraft′s flight along the projected route will enter a thunderstorm environment at some point in the future and change the flight track in advance,thus preventing the adverse effects of thunderstorms on aircrafts.Based on the analysis of the meteorological radar echo map,this paper finds the thunderstorm that may affect the flight in the terminal area of an airport,predicts the motion trajectory equation of the thunderstorm by using the least squares method according to the position and state of thunderstorm in the past time point,and then finds out the motion trajectory equation closest to the thunderstorm by variance analysis.Based on the estimated route and speed of the aircraft,the paper calculates the trajectory equation of the aircraft′s planned flight,and obtains the minimum distance between the aircraft and the thunderstorm and the motion equation of the aircraft relative time,and then evaluates the feasibility by mathematical statistics,so as to determine whether the flight will be affected and,if affected,changes the original flight track to avoid thunderstorms.The case verification results show that the method has certain feasibility.
引文
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[20]李小磊,吴云刚.求解c、值的软件开发及试验验证[J].安全与环境工程,2010,17(1):103-106.
[2]石宝灵.云南多普勒天气雷达网探测冰雹的覆盖能力[J].应用气象学报,2018,29(3):270-281.
[3]陈岚峰,杨静瑜,崔崧,等.基于MATLAB的最小二乘曲线拟合仿真研究[J].沈阳师范大学学报,2014,32(1):75-79.
[4]梁平,郭益铭,刘文文.基于GWR模型的汉江流域土地利用类型与水质关系评估[J].安全与环境工程,2017,24(2):67-74,90.
[5]肖云,王云鹏,刘晓刚,等.空域最小二乘法用于重力卫星误差分析[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2019(3):340-346.
[6]陈晓倩,刘瑞祥.基于最小二乘策略迭代的无人机航迹规划方法[J/OL].计算机工程与应用:1-7.[2019-06-11].http:kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/11.2127.TP.20190221.1646.002.html.
[7]吕宗平,王松涛,张兆宁.基于CREAM和IDAC综合分析法的自由飞行下航空器碰撞风险评估[J].安全与环境工程,2017,24(1):111-114,120.
[8]薛宇敬阳,傅贵.通用航空飞行事故不安全动作原因作用路径的统计分析[J].安全与环境工程,2018,25(2):131-138.
[9]刘玲莉,孙亚菲,郑红运.基于集对分析的民航运输事故征候预测模型研究[J].安全与环境工程,2013,20(5):154-158.
[10]凤四海,李枣,贺元骅.基于灰色关联法的飞机火灾事故统计分析与启示[J].安全与环境工程,2017,24(3):138-143,149.
[11]梁文娟,李雪艳.基于ARIMA、LS-SVM和BP神经网络组合模型的航空运输飞行事故征候预测[J].安全与环境工程,2018,25(1):130-136.
[12]高扬,许星.基于灰色关联理论的民航事故影响因素分析[J].安全与环境工程,2013,20(3):102-106.
[13]刘晓东,李松如,冯旭宇,等.内蒙古雷灾特征及灾情的灰色关联评估[J].安全与环境学报,2012,12(5):251-255.
[14]赵嶷飞,徐永祥,王红勇.基于航迹误差的空中交通冲突风险计算方法研究[J].安全与环境学报,2016,16(3):16-19.
[15]余爱清,周敬利,余胜生.CAD坐标系统与CAM坐标系统间的映射变换[J].计算机工程与应用,1999(11):18-19.
[16]熊邦书,张超,柳青,等.基于图像的点读坐标提取方法[J].光电技术应用,2011,32(6):886-889.
[17]杨小勇.方差分析法浅析———单因素的方差分析[J].实验科学与技术,2013,11(1):41-43.
[18]霍玉洪.切比雪夫不等式及其应用[J].长春工业大学学报,2012,33(6):712-714.
[19]樊明智,王芬玲.区间估计与假设检验[J].统计与决策,2006(12):141-143.
[20]李小磊,吴云刚.求解c、值的软件开发及试验验证[J].安全与环境工程,2010,17(1):103-106.