基于岭回归的江苏省社会消费品零售额影响因素分析
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摘要
研究社会消费品零售额影响因素,对制定宏观经济政策、保持市场供需平衡、维护经济平稳发展等具有重要意义。岭回归是一种专用于共线性数据分析的有偏估计回归方法,是对最小二乘估计法的改良。文章运用岭回归原理和方法分析了江苏省社会消费品零售额与城镇居民收入、农村居民收入、城镇化率、全省总人口的关系。研究表明,对江苏省社会消费品零售额影响最大的是农村居民收入,最小的是人口数量,城镇居民收入对社会消费品零售额影响也很显著。由于江苏省人口变动幅度不大,对社会消费品零售额影响不太明显。
It is of great significance of studying the influential factors on retail sales of consumer goods to formulate macroeconomic policies,maintain market supply and demand balance,and keep stable economic development.As a biased estimation regression method dedicated to collinear data analysis,ridge regression is an improvement of the least squares estimation method.Thus,the principle and method of ridge regression are used in this paper to analyze the relationship between the retail sales of social consumer goods in Jiangsu Province and the income of urban and rural residents,urbanization rate and the total population of the province.Result shows that the greatest impact on the retail sales of social consumer goods of Jiangsu province is the income of rural residents,the smallest is the number of population.The impact of urban residents' income on retail sales of social consumer goods is also significant.Due to the small population change in Jiangsu,the impact on retail sales of consumer goods is not obvious.
It is of great significance of studying the influential factors on retail sales of consumer goods to formulate macroeconomic policies,maintain market supply and demand balance,and keep stable economic development.As a biased estimation regression method dedicated to collinear data analysis,ridge regression is an improvement of the least squares estimation method.Thus,the principle and method of ridge regression are used in this paper to analyze the relationship between the retail sales of social consumer goods in Jiangsu Province and the income of urban and rural residents,urbanization rate and the total population of the province.Result shows that the greatest impact on the retail sales of social consumer goods of Jiangsu province is the income of rural residents,the smallest is the number of population.The impact of urban residents' income on retail sales of social consumer goods is also significant.Due to the small population change in Jiangsu,the impact on retail sales of consumer goods is not obvious.
引文
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[6]刘红勇,胡健,王鹏,等.基于岭回归法的四川省房地产价格影响因素研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2014,44(12):72-78.
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[8]孔朝莉,李国徽,黄美婷,等.基于岭回归的海南人均GDP与三大产业关系研究[J].科技和产业,2016,16(6):42-46.
[9]朱述知.基于岭回归的我国农村居民消费实证研究[J].乐山师范学院学报,2014,29(6):87-91.
[10]杨秀丽,权晓超.基于岭回归的黑龙江省农村居民收入影响因素分析[J].统计与咨询,2015(4):24-26.
[11]何仁伟,李立娜,刘运伟.基于岭回归模型的河北省农民人均纯收入影响因素分析[J].江苏农业科学,2016,44(9):562-566.
[12]杨菊兰,卢美丽.基于岭回归分析的山西省物流业发展实证研究[J].物流技术,2013,32(3):373-376.
[13]游士兵,冷玉洁.投资、消费、净出口的边际贡献率对经济增长影响的实证研究:基于收敛回归模型[M].徐州工程学院学报(社会科学版),2017,32(1):53.
[2]丁宏术.基于Gm-Markov修正模型的社会消费品零售总额预测[J].统计与决策,2014(14):70-72.
[3]舒服华.基于改进logistic的湖北省社会消费品零售总额预测[J].湖北工程学院学报,2018,38(1):92-96.
[4]韩彦林.基于GA-SVR的江苏省社会消费品零售总额预测[J].中国商贸,2015(1):106-108.
[5]郑晓云,刘亚男.基于岭回归法的重庆市商业地产需求影响因素分析[J].开发研究,2016(4):54-58.
[6]刘红勇,胡健,王鹏,等.基于岭回归法的四川省房地产价格影响因素研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2014,44(12):72-78.
[7]董力,刘艳玲.岭回归在我国工程保险需求影响因素分析中的应用[J].西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2013,23(2):34-41.
[8]孔朝莉,李国徽,黄美婷,等.基于岭回归的海南人均GDP与三大产业关系研究[J].科技和产业,2016,16(6):42-46.
[9]朱述知.基于岭回归的我国农村居民消费实证研究[J].乐山师范学院学报,2014,29(6):87-91.
[10]杨秀丽,权晓超.基于岭回归的黑龙江省农村居民收入影响因素分析[J].统计与咨询,2015(4):24-26.
[11]何仁伟,李立娜,刘运伟.基于岭回归模型的河北省农民人均纯收入影响因素分析[J].江苏农业科学,2016,44(9):562-566.
[12]杨菊兰,卢美丽.基于岭回归分析的山西省物流业发展实证研究[J].物流技术,2013,32(3):373-376.
[13]游士兵,冷玉洁.投资、消费、净出口的边际贡献率对经济增长影响的实证研究:基于收敛回归模型[M].徐州工程学院学报(社会科学版),2017,32(1):53.