基于MCS-TOPSIS耦合模型的岩体质量分类研究
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摘要
岩体质量分类是各类岩土工程实践问题的基础,由于岩体指标参数的模糊性和随机性,故岩体质量分类表现出不确定性,而现有分类模型则忽略了这种参数不确定性对分类结果造成的影响。考虑到分类指标参数的不确定性,在岩体质量分类问题中引入概率描述的可靠度分析方法,提出一种蒙特卡洛模拟(Monte Carlo simulation,简称MCS)和逼近理想解排序法(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,简称TOPSIS)耦合模型。该模型由两部分组成:通过博弈论赋权方法获取分类体系中指标的权重,并结合TOPSIS模型来建立可靠度分析中的极限状态方程;基于MCS方法由TOPSIS模型构建的极限状态方程进行随机的不确定性分析,并通过概率函数给出最终的分类结果。通过25组测试样本对基于博弈论组合赋权的TOPSIS模型进行测试,结果显示该模型的误判率为0,表明MCS-TOPSIS模型中确定性分析的合理性。最后通过Matlab语言编制计算程序,分别由确定性分析和不确定性分析的角度来探讨水布垭地下洞室厂房围岩质量分类。研究结果表明:采用MCS-TOPSIS模型进行岩体质量分类是可行的,该模型具有较高的准确度且易于实现,具有一定的工程应用价值。该研究为岩体质量分类提供了一种新思路。
The quality classification of rock mass is a basic geotechnical engineering issue. The classification of rock mass quality shows the uncertainty due to the fuzziness and randomness of the rock mass parameters. The effect of parameter uncertainty on the classification results is ignored in the existing classification model. The reliability method was thus introduced into the classification of rock mass quality,and a coupled model of Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS) was proposed,which can consider the effect of the parameter uncertainty on the classification. The model consists of two parts. One part is to obtain the weight of classification system index with the game theory and to determine the limit-state equation of the reliability with the TOPSIS model,and the other part is to perform uncertainty analysis and to provide the final classification result based on the probability function. The TOPSIS model was tested with 25 sets of samples. The analysis results of the MCS-TOPSIS model indicate that the misjudgment ratio of the model is 0. The quality classification of the surrounding rock at Shuibuya underground powerhouse is examined based on the certainty and uncertainty methods using Matlab programs. The results demonstrate that it is feasible to use the MCS-TOPSIS model to classify the rock mass quality and the model has high accuracy and is easy to use.
The quality classification of rock mass is a basic geotechnical engineering issue. The classification of rock mass quality shows the uncertainty due to the fuzziness and randomness of the rock mass parameters. The effect of parameter uncertainty on the classification results is ignored in the existing classification model. The reliability method was thus introduced into the classification of rock mass quality,and a coupled model of Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS) was proposed,which can consider the effect of the parameter uncertainty on the classification. The model consists of two parts. One part is to obtain the weight of classification system index with the game theory and to determine the limit-state equation of the reliability with the TOPSIS model,and the other part is to perform uncertainty analysis and to provide the final classification result based on the probability function. The TOPSIS model was tested with 25 sets of samples. The analysis results of the MCS-TOPSIS model indicate that the misjudgment ratio of the model is 0. The quality classification of the surrounding rock at Shuibuya underground powerhouse is examined based on the certainty and uncertainty methods using Matlab programs. The results demonstrate that it is feasible to use the MCS-TOPSIS model to classify the rock mass quality and the model has high accuracy and is easy to use.
引文
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[21]龚剑,胡乃联,崔翔,等.基于AHP-TOPSIS评判模型的岩爆倾向性预测[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014,33(7):1 442–1 448.(GONG Jian,HU Nailian,CUI Xiang,et al.Rockburst tendency prediction based on AHP-TOPSIS evaluation model[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2014,33(7):1 442–1 448.(in Chinese))
[22]王迎超,孙红月,尚岳全,等.基于特尔菲–理想点法的隧道围岩分类研究[J].岩土工程学报,2010,32(4):651–656.(WANG Yingchao,SUN Hongyue,SHANG Yuequan,et al.Classification of surrounding rock based on Delphi method and ideal point method[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2010,32(4):651–656.(in Chinese))
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[2]鲁光银,朱自强,李华,等.公路隧道岩体质量分级的模糊层次分析法[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2008,39(2):368–374.(LU Guangyin,ZHU Ziqiang,LI Hua,et al.Rock mass cclassification method in highway tunnel based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2008,39(2):368–374.(in Chinese))
[3]王威,苏经宇,马东辉,等.岩体质量评价的分形插值模型[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,43(12):4 827–4 833.(WANG Wei,SU Jingyu,MA Donghui,et al.Evaluation of rock mass quality based on fractal interpolation model[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2012,43(12):4 827–4 833.(in Chinese))
[4]陈训龙,龚文惠,邱金伟,等.基于盲数理论的边坡可靠度分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2016,35(6):1 155–1 160.(CHEN Xunlong,GONG Wenhui,QIU Jinwei,et al.Reliability analysis of slopes based on blind data theory[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2016,35(6):1 155–1 160.(in Chinese))
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[9]梁桂兰,徐卫亚,谈小龙.基于熵权的可拓理论在岩体质量评价中的应用[J].岩土力学,2010,31(2):535–540.(LIANG Guilan,XU Weiya,TAN Xiaolong.Application of extension theory based on entropy weight to rock quality evaluation[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2010,31(2):535–540.(in Chinese))
[10]穆成林,黄润秋,裴向军,等.基于组合赋权–未确知测度理论的围岩稳定性评价[J].岩土工程学报,2016,38(6):1 057–1 063.(MU Chenglin,HUANG Runqiu,PEI Xiangjun,et al.Evaluation of rock stability based on combined weighting-unascertained measurement theory[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2016,38(6):1 057–1 063.(in Chinese))
[11]张紫昭,郭瑞清,林文成,等.勘探阶段可采煤层顶底板岩体质量分类模型[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2016,24(3):475–489.(ZHANG Zizhao,GUO Ruiqing,LIN Wencheng,et al.A classification model for rock mass quality of the roof and floor of productive coal seams during coal geological exploration[J].Journal of Basic Science and Engineering,2016,24(3):475–489.(in Chinese))
[12]宫凤强,李夕兵.距离判别分析法在岩体质量等级分类中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(1):190–194.(GONG Fengqiang,LI Xibing.Application of distance discriminant analysis method to classification of engineering quality of rock masses[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2007,26(1):190–194.(in Chinese))
[13]朱自强,柳群义,鲁光银,等.边坡岩体质量分级的模糊层次分析[J].工程地质学报,2007,15(3):350–355.(ZHU Ziqiang,LIU Qunyi,LU Guangyin,et al.Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process for rock mass quality classification in slopes[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2007,15(3):350–355.(in Chinese))
[14]李健,汪明武,徐鹏,等.基于云模型的围岩稳定性分类[J].岩土工程学报,2014,36(1):83–87.(LI Jian,WANG Mingwu,XU Peng,et al.Classification of stability of surrounding rock using cloud model[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2014,36(1):83–87.(in Chinese))
[15]胡建华,尚俊龙,雷涛.基于RS-TOPSIS法的地下工程岩体质量评价[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,43(11):4 412–4 419.(HU Jianhua,SHANG Junlong,LEI Tao.Rock mass quality evaluation of underground engineering based on RS-TOPSIS method[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2012,43(11):4 412–4 419.(in Chinese))
[16]陈守煜,王子茹,罗宝力,等.可变模糊模式识别方法及在水电站地下厂房岩体稳定性评价中的应用[J].水利学报,2011,42(4):396–402.(CHEN Shouyu,WANG Ziru,LUO Baoli,et al.Method of variable fuzzy pattern recognition and it application to surrounding rock stability of water power station underground building[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2011,42(4):396–402.(in Chinese))
[17]罗文强,黄润秋,张倬元.斜坡稳定性概率分析的理论与应用[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社,2003:1–8.(LUO Wenqiang,HUANG Runqiu,ZHANG Zhuoyuan.Theory and application of probability analysis of slope stability[M].Wuhan:China University of Geosciences,2003:1–8.(in Chinese))
[18]张璐璐,张吉,徐耀,等.岩土工程可靠度理论[M].上海:同济大学出版社,2011:89–104.(ZHANG Lulu,ZHANG Ji,XU Yao,et al.Reliability theory of geotechnical engineering[M].Shanghai:Tongji University Press,2011:89–104.(in Chinese))
[19]徐伟,胡新丽,黄磊,等.结构面三维网络模拟计算RQD及精度对比研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2012,31(4):822–833.(XU Wei,HU Xinli,HUANG Lei,et al.Research on RQD of rock mass calculated by three-dimensional discontinuity network simulation method and its accuracy comparison[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2012,31(4):822–833.(in Chinese))
[20]李灿,张凤荣,朱泰峰,等.基于熵权TOPSIS模型的土地利用绩效评价及关联分析[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(5):217–227.(LI Can,ZHANG Fengrong,ZHU Taifeng,et al.Evaluation and correlation analysis of land use performance based on entropy-weight TOPSIS method[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2013,29(5):217–227.(in Chinese))
[21]龚剑,胡乃联,崔翔,等.基于AHP-TOPSIS评判模型的岩爆倾向性预测[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014,33(7):1 442–1 448.(GONG Jian,HU Nailian,CUI Xiang,et al.Rockburst tendency prediction based on AHP-TOPSIS evaluation model[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2014,33(7):1 442–1 448.(in Chinese))
[22]王迎超,孙红月,尚岳全,等.基于特尔菲–理想点法的隧道围岩分类研究[J].岩土工程学报,2010,32(4):651–656.(WANG Yingchao,SUN Hongyue,SHANG Yuequan,et al.Classification of surrounding rock based on Delphi method and ideal point method[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2010,32(4):651–656.(in Chinese))
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