基于DSSM的西北五省(区)林业产业结构变化与差异分析
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摘要
利用西北五省(区)林业的产值数据,通过动态偏离—份额分析法(DSSM)计算了该区域2006—2014年林业产业结构分量和竞争力分量,分析了其产业结构与竞争力之间的动态变化。结果表明,该区域林业产业整体上处于上升态势,其产值由2006年的34.60亿元增长到2014年的215.65亿元,年平均增长率达到25.70%;就产业结构而言,该区域林业三次产业的比重由2006年的91.87∶4.54∶3.60调整为2014年的83.15∶9.69∶7.16,林业结构以传统的林业种植业为主,林业第二、第三产业比重过低;从省(区)间林业产业发展差异上分析,陕西、新疆两个省(区)林业发展水平较高;从区域林业发展的整体水平上分析,该区域有较多的林业子产业发展迅速,从动态的角度看该区域林业产业的发展,较快的发展速度弥补了林业基础结构上的缺陷,产业结构总体上正在向逐步优化的方向演化。在此基础上,对西北五省(区)林业产业发展提出了相应的建议。
Using the output value data of forestry in the five northwestern provinces(regions), the structural and component components of forestry industry in 2006-2014 were calculated by dynamic deviation-share analysis(DSSM), and the dynamic changes between industrial structure and competitiveness was analyzed. The results show that the forestry industry in the region is on the rise as a whole, and its output value has increased from 3.46 billion yuan in 2006 to 21.565 billion yuan in2014, with an average annual growth rate of 25.70%. In terms of industrial structure, The proportion of the three forestry industries in the region is adjusted from 91.87∶4.54∶3.60 in 2006 to 83.15∶9.69∶7.16 in 2014. The forestry structure is mainly based on traditional forestry planting, and the proportion of forestry second and third industries is too low. According to the analysis of the difference in the development of forestry industry among provinces(regions), the development level of forestry in Shaanxi and Xinjiang provinces is relatively high. From the overall level of regional forestry development, there are more forestry sub-sectors in the region developing rapidly. From a dynamic perspective,the rapid development speed makes up for the defects in forestry infrastructure, and the industrial structure is generally evolving in the direction of gradual optimization.On this basis, corresponding suggestions for the development of forestry industry in the five northwestern provinces(regions)were put forward.
Using the output value data of forestry in the five northwestern provinces(regions), the structural and component components of forestry industry in 2006-2014 were calculated by dynamic deviation-share analysis(DSSM), and the dynamic changes between industrial structure and competitiveness was analyzed. The results show that the forestry industry in the region is on the rise as a whole, and its output value has increased from 3.46 billion yuan in 2006 to 21.565 billion yuan in2014, with an average annual growth rate of 25.70%. In terms of industrial structure, The proportion of the three forestry industries in the region is adjusted from 91.87∶4.54∶3.60 in 2006 to 83.15∶9.69∶7.16 in 2014. The forestry structure is mainly based on traditional forestry planting, and the proportion of forestry second and third industries is too low. According to the analysis of the difference in the development of forestry industry among provinces(regions), the development level of forestry in Shaanxi and Xinjiang provinces is relatively high. From the overall level of regional forestry development, there are more forestry sub-sectors in the region developing rapidly. From a dynamic perspective,the rapid development speed makes up for the defects in forestry infrastructure, and the industrial structure is generally evolving in the direction of gradual optimization.On this basis, corresponding suggestions for the development of forestry industry in the five northwestern provinces(regions)were put forward.
引文
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[3]姚顺波,张雅丽.西北林业政策探析[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2002(3):1-6.
[4]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011,46(5):4-16,31.
[5]刘云锋.产业结构与经济增长关系的统计研究[D].辽宁大连:东北财经大学,2005.
[6]魏远竹,朱永法.产业结构调整与林业经济增长方式转变[J].北京林业大学学报,2001(1):72-75.
[7]丁贺,聂华,张颖.中国林业产业结构演变趋势及弹性模型分析[J].世界林业研究,2014,27(2):57-60.
[8]许玉粉,耿玉德,李明德.基于SSM的延边林业产业结构模式研究[J].林业经济,2011(3):76-78,96.
[9] COX B M,MUNN I A. A comparison of two input—output approaches for investigating regional economic impacts of the forest products industry in the Pacific Northwest and the South[J].Forest Products Journal,2001,51(6):39-46
[10]邵砾群,陈海滨,刘军弟,等.基于灰色理论的陕西省林业产业结构分析预测[J].西北林学院学报,2012,27(5):289-292.
[11]张颖,丁贺,张锐.基于偏离-份额分析法的安徽省林业优势产业的选择研究[J].中南林业科技大学学报,2014,34(7):115-120.
[12]曹颖,万志芳.黑龙江省林业产业结构分析——基于偏离—份额分析法[J].林业经济,2012,(11):102-104,115.
[13]龚晓君,刘萍.基于SSM模型的内蒙古国有林区主导产业选择实证分析[J].林业资源管理,2010(4):98-102.
[14]樊妍芳,严江平,石培基.基于SSM的甘肃省入境旅游客源市场结构变化分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(2):107-112.
[15] BARFF R A,KNIGHT III P L. Dynamic shift-share analysis[J].Growth and Change,1988,19(11):1-11.
[16]廖文梅.南方集体林区林业经济增长的产业结构演变及其差异分析——基于13个省(区)1995—2011年的统计数据[J].林业科学,2014,50(8):131-140.
[17]宋超智,宋维明,印中华.浙江林业产业结构效应与战略选择实证分析[J].林业经济,2009(5):65-70.
[18]段树国,龚新蜀.基于偏离-份额分析法的新疆资源型产业竞争力评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(11):9-14.
[19]赵锐.中国区域经济增长和能源消耗强度差异的实证分析[D].长沙:湖南大学,2012.