摘要
本文将房产和与其相关的家庭债务置于一个动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,分析了货币政策、房产税、动态贷款价值比(LTV)等政策对降低家庭债务杠杆的有效性。研究发现:(1)虽然利率上调能减少真实的抵押债务冲击,但是可能会引起家庭债务收入比上升。(2)动态贷款价值比对降低家庭债务是最有效且成本最低的政策选择,其次是增加房产税和上调短期利率。(3)动态贷款价值比由于主要针对房产部门,因而对经济负面效应最小,然而其适用范围过于狭窄,并不能充分解决家庭部门债务问题;尽管房产税会影响所有房产所有者,然而只能直接影响房产部门,而货币政策则会对所有房产部门和非房产部门均产生影响,因而对产出的负面效应最大。稳健性分析结果和基准模型一样,这三个政策在减少家庭债务方面的有效性基本排序不变。
This paper puts the property and its related household debt into a DSGE model framework,and analyzes the effectiveness of policies such as monetary policy,property tax,and dynamic loan value ratio to reduce household debt leverage.The study found that:(1)Although the interest rate increase can reduce the real mortgage debt shock,it may cause the household debt income ratio to rise;(2)The dynamic loan value comparison is the most effective and lowest cost policy choice to reduce household debt,followed by increasing the property tax and raising the short-term interest rate;(3)The dynamic loan value ratio has the least negative impact on the economy because it is mainly targeted at the real estate sector.However,its scope of application is too narrow and cannot fully solve the debt problem of the household sector.Although property taxes affect all property owners,they can only directly affect the property sector;monetary policy has an impact on all property sectors and non-real estate sectors,and thus has the greatest negative impact on output.To this end,when adopting specific response policies,it is necessary to review the situation and adopt a flexible policy mix according to the specific scale of household debt.The results of the robustness analysis are the same as the benchmark model,and the basic order of effectiveness of these three policies in reducing household debt remains unchanged.
引文
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