基于分段线性模型的专变用户电能配给估计
|
摘要
针对专变用户数量激增引起的用电配给管理问题,提出一种分段线性模型来预测专变用户月平均用电占比数据,实现节能配给的目标.采用N点长数据分段更新生成分段线性模型,从而估计得到下一个月的平均用电占比数值.讨论分析了分段点长N分别取4~8时,分段线性模型预测精度的差异.针对某专变用户2015年以来的实际用电数据进行预测分析,比较验证了预测数值和实际数据之间的误差.结果表明,当最优建模点长N=6时,模型的平均预测误差最小.
In order to solve the problem of power consumption management for special transformer users,a piecewise linear model was proposed to forecast the monthly average electricity consumption ratio data of special transformer users and to realize the goal of saving the energy consumption. With the N point length data segmentation,the piecewise linear model was updated and generated,and the average electricity consumption ratio data for the next month were estimated. When the segmentation point length N was from 4 to 8,the forecast accuracy difference of piecewise linear model was analyzed and discussed. The actual power consumption data for a special transformer user from 2015 onwards were forecasted and analyzed,and the error between the forecast values and actual data was compared and verified. The results show that when the optimal modeling point length N is 6,the proposed model has the minimum average prediction error.
In order to solve the problem of power consumption management for special transformer users,a piecewise linear model was proposed to forecast the monthly average electricity consumption ratio data of special transformer users and to realize the goal of saving the energy consumption. With the N point length data segmentation,the piecewise linear model was updated and generated,and the average electricity consumption ratio data for the next month were estimated. When the segmentation point length N was from 4 to 8,the forecast accuracy difference of piecewise linear model was analyzed and discussed. The actual power consumption data for a special transformer user from 2015 onwards were forecasted and analyzed,and the error between the forecast values and actual data was compared and verified. The results show that when the optimal modeling point length N is 6,the proposed model has the minimum average prediction error.
引文
[1]祝恩国,窦健.用电信息采集系统双向互动功能设计及关键技术[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(17):62-67.(ZHU En-guo,DOU Jian.Bidirectional interactive function design and key technology of power information collection system[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(17):62-67.)
[2]黄剑文,严宇平.基于聚类集成的用户负荷模式识别[J].计算机应用与软件,2014,31(12):237-241.(HUANG Jian-wen,YAN Yu-ping.User load pattern recognition based on clustering ensemble[J].Computer Applications and Software,2014,31(12):237-241.)
[3]李靖波.宁夏中卫地区用户用电信息采集终端建设可行性研究[J].电力需求侧管理,2010,12(5):57-58.(LI Jing-bo.Feasibility study of user power information collection terminal construction in Ningxia central power station[J].Power Demand Side Management,2010,12(5):57-58.)
[4]吴蔚.基于数据挖掘与关联规则的月度统计线损计算[D].秦皇岛:燕山大学,2016.(WU Wei.Monthly statistical line loss calculation based on data mining and association rules[D].Qinhuangdao:Yanshan University,2016.)
[5]王鹏.计量自动化专变系统数据采集异常分析[J].机电一体化,2014(4):24-25.(WANG Peng.Abnormal analysis of data acquisition in measurement automation system[J].Mechatronics,2014(4):24-25.)
[6]熊淦辉,黎沛坚,徐俊林,等.基于自适应匹配模型的停电管理系统设计与应用[J].电子设计工程,2015(16):160-163.(XIONG Gan-hui,LI Pei-jian,XU Jun-lin,et al.Outage management system design and application of adaptive matching model[J].Electronic Design Engineering,2015(16):160-163.)
[7]熊德智,粟忠民,黄志刚.特大型专变客户负荷控制方案优化[J].电力需求侧管理,2013,15(4):24-26.(XIONG De-zhi,SU Zhong-min,HUANG Zhi-gang.Optimization of customer load control scheme for extra large customer service[J].Power Demand Side Management,2013,15(4):24-26.)
[8]万忠兵,谢智,王韬.基于本征时间尺度分解和时间序列分析的电能计量误差预测方法[J].电气应用,2017(2):77-84.(WAN Zhong-bing,XIE Zhi,WANG Tao.Prediction method of energy metering error based on time scale decomposition and time series analysis[J].Electric Application,2017(2):77-84.)
[9]范媛媛,桑英军,胡光,等.基于小波变换的电能质量监测[J].沈阳工业大学学报,2014,36(6):681-687.(FAN Yuan-yuan,SANG Ying-jun,HU Guang,et al.Power quality monitoring based on wavelet transform[J].Journal of Shenyang University of Technology,2014,36(6):681-687.)
[10]唐毅.电能计量装置远程校验监测系统的设计与实现[D].成都:电子科技大学,2012.(TANG Yi.Design and implementation of remote checkout and monitoring system for electric energy metering device[D].Chengdu:University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,2012.)
[11]刘青阳,魏国亮,王永雄.基于模糊理论的永磁同步电机直接转矩弱磁控制[J].电子科技,2015,28(6):187-191.(LIU Qing-yang,WEI Guo-liang,WANG Yongxiong.Flux-weakening direct torque control of PMSM based on fuzzy logic algorithm[J].Electronic Science and Technology,2015,28(6):187-191.)
[12]陈昌松,段善旭,殷进军,等.基于发电预测的分布式发电能量管理系统[J].电工技术学报,2010,25(3):150-156.(CHEN Chang-song,DUAN Shan-xu,YIN Jin-jun,et al.Distributed generation energy management system based on power generation forecasting[J].Journal of Electrotechnical Technology,2010,25(3):150-156.)
[13]邹永久.电力谐波对电能计量影响的分析[J].电子科技,2012,25(11):74-75.(ZOU Yong-jiu.Analysis of the influence of power harmonics on electric energy measurement[J].Electronic Science and Technology,2012,25(11):74-75.)
[14]张有顺,冯岗.电能计量基础[M].北京:中国计量出版社,2007.(ZHANG You-shun,FENG Gang.Energy measurement basis[M].Beijing:China Metrology Publishing House,2007.)
[15]Naghizadeh R A,Vahidi B,Hosseinian S H.An adaptive approach for simulation of inrush current in threephase transformers considering hysteresis effects[J].Electric Power Components&Systems,2016,44(6):673-682.
[16]朱卫云,付东翔,葛懂林.基于RBF神经网络的永磁同步伺服电机控制系统[J].电子科技,2016,29(1):161-164.(ZHU Wei-yun,FU Dong-xiang,GE Dong-lin.PMSM control system based on RBF neural network[J].Electronic Science and Technology,2016,29(1):161-164.)
[2]黄剑文,严宇平.基于聚类集成的用户负荷模式识别[J].计算机应用与软件,2014,31(12):237-241.(HUANG Jian-wen,YAN Yu-ping.User load pattern recognition based on clustering ensemble[J].Computer Applications and Software,2014,31(12):237-241.)
[3]李靖波.宁夏中卫地区用户用电信息采集终端建设可行性研究[J].电力需求侧管理,2010,12(5):57-58.(LI Jing-bo.Feasibility study of user power information collection terminal construction in Ningxia central power station[J].Power Demand Side Management,2010,12(5):57-58.)
[4]吴蔚.基于数据挖掘与关联规则的月度统计线损计算[D].秦皇岛:燕山大学,2016.(WU Wei.Monthly statistical line loss calculation based on data mining and association rules[D].Qinhuangdao:Yanshan University,2016.)
[5]王鹏.计量自动化专变系统数据采集异常分析[J].机电一体化,2014(4):24-25.(WANG Peng.Abnormal analysis of data acquisition in measurement automation system[J].Mechatronics,2014(4):24-25.)
[6]熊淦辉,黎沛坚,徐俊林,等.基于自适应匹配模型的停电管理系统设计与应用[J].电子设计工程,2015(16):160-163.(XIONG Gan-hui,LI Pei-jian,XU Jun-lin,et al.Outage management system design and application of adaptive matching model[J].Electronic Design Engineering,2015(16):160-163.)
[7]熊德智,粟忠民,黄志刚.特大型专变客户负荷控制方案优化[J].电力需求侧管理,2013,15(4):24-26.(XIONG De-zhi,SU Zhong-min,HUANG Zhi-gang.Optimization of customer load control scheme for extra large customer service[J].Power Demand Side Management,2013,15(4):24-26.)
[8]万忠兵,谢智,王韬.基于本征时间尺度分解和时间序列分析的电能计量误差预测方法[J].电气应用,2017(2):77-84.(WAN Zhong-bing,XIE Zhi,WANG Tao.Prediction method of energy metering error based on time scale decomposition and time series analysis[J].Electric Application,2017(2):77-84.)
[9]范媛媛,桑英军,胡光,等.基于小波变换的电能质量监测[J].沈阳工业大学学报,2014,36(6):681-687.(FAN Yuan-yuan,SANG Ying-jun,HU Guang,et al.Power quality monitoring based on wavelet transform[J].Journal of Shenyang University of Technology,2014,36(6):681-687.)
[10]唐毅.电能计量装置远程校验监测系统的设计与实现[D].成都:电子科技大学,2012.(TANG Yi.Design and implementation of remote checkout and monitoring system for electric energy metering device[D].Chengdu:University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,2012.)
[11]刘青阳,魏国亮,王永雄.基于模糊理论的永磁同步电机直接转矩弱磁控制[J].电子科技,2015,28(6):187-191.(LIU Qing-yang,WEI Guo-liang,WANG Yongxiong.Flux-weakening direct torque control of PMSM based on fuzzy logic algorithm[J].Electronic Science and Technology,2015,28(6):187-191.)
[12]陈昌松,段善旭,殷进军,等.基于发电预测的分布式发电能量管理系统[J].电工技术学报,2010,25(3):150-156.(CHEN Chang-song,DUAN Shan-xu,YIN Jin-jun,et al.Distributed generation energy management system based on power generation forecasting[J].Journal of Electrotechnical Technology,2010,25(3):150-156.)
[13]邹永久.电力谐波对电能计量影响的分析[J].电子科技,2012,25(11):74-75.(ZOU Yong-jiu.Analysis of the influence of power harmonics on electric energy measurement[J].Electronic Science and Technology,2012,25(11):74-75.)
[14]张有顺,冯岗.电能计量基础[M].北京:中国计量出版社,2007.(ZHANG You-shun,FENG Gang.Energy measurement basis[M].Beijing:China Metrology Publishing House,2007.)
[15]Naghizadeh R A,Vahidi B,Hosseinian S H.An adaptive approach for simulation of inrush current in threephase transformers considering hysteresis effects[J].Electric Power Components&Systems,2016,44(6):673-682.
[16]朱卫云,付东翔,葛懂林.基于RBF神经网络的永磁同步伺服电机控制系统[J].电子科技,2016,29(1):161-164.(ZHU Wei-yun,FU Dong-xiang,GE Dong-lin.PMSM control system based on RBF neural network[J].Electronic Science and Technology,2016,29(1):161-164.)