基于GPCC数据的1901-2010年东北地区降水时空变化
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摘要
基于1901—2010年GPCC[全球降水气候中心(Global Precipitation Climatology Centre)研制的逐月降水格点数据]月降水格点数据与东北地区79个气象站1961—2010年逐月降水资料,利用相关分析、EOF分解、气候倾向率、M-K统计检验和集合经验模态分解(EEMD)等方法,比较了GPCC降水数据与观测数据的差异,探讨了GPCC数据描述的东北地区近百余年不同时间尺度(年、季)降水变化特征。结果表明:1961—2010年GPCC与东北地区站点数据有着非常显著的相关关系,年GPCC降水与站点数据的距平相关系数为0.96,其与同期东北地区79个气象站的平均偏差仅为5.3%,表明GPCC数据对东北地区降水具有非常好的描述性。GPCC描述的1901—2010年东北地区降水是微弱增加的。从主模态来看,GPCC数据描述的东北地区近百年降水在20世纪初到20年代末处于偏少阶段;30年代到60年代东北地区降水显著增加,处于偏多阶段;70年代后降水又有所减少,但在80年代后期和90年代后期出现个别降水偏多年。从季节变化来看,1901—2010年东北地区秋季降水呈现一定的减少趋势,而其他季节降水有所增加。此外,东北地区降水存在年际(3.5,7.3a)、年代际(12.3,26.7a)和百年时间尺度(112.3a)的特征周期变化。
Precipitation is one of the most important part for global energy and water cycle as well as the key problem for study of climate change and variability.However,there are some uncertainties of precipitation change while comparing with the widespread and sustained global warming trend.The results show that precipitation had significant regional differences and decadal variability in recent 50 years of China.Since the late 1970 ssummer precipitation has being decreasing in north China and the Yellow River Basin.But in the middle and lower Yangtze River Basin to south China precipitation is significantly increasing.These factors lead to the spatial pattern of flooding in the south and drought in the north.However,we found that lots of research works for precipitation are limited in recent 50 or 60years because of the length of observed data.Aiming at these problems,domestic and foreign research institutions paid great efforts to create some longer sequence global grid precipitation datasets,and used these datasets to carry out a lot of innovation research.So in this paper,the variation of precipitation was studied from 1901 to 2010in northeast China by using GPCC data.The results indicated that GPCC data showed significant correlation with the station data.GPCC show that the precipitation from 1901 to 2010is slight increasing in northeast China,and it displays similar spatial distribution of precipitation to station data.There are two relative drier periods from 1901 to 2010.The first period is from 1901 to 1930,and the other one is from 1971 to 2010,while the relative wet period is from 1931 to 1970.There is decreasing trend of autumn in 1901—2010,but precipitation is increasing in the other seasons.GPCC data have the annual,decadal and multi-decadal time scales cycle.Finally,we hopethis study can help deepen understanding of the climate change in northeast China,and provide reference for research on climate,ecology and hydrology by using the other relevant data as well.
Precipitation is one of the most important part for global energy and water cycle as well as the key problem for study of climate change and variability.However,there are some uncertainties of precipitation change while comparing with the widespread and sustained global warming trend.The results show that precipitation had significant regional differences and decadal variability in recent 50 years of China.Since the late 1970 ssummer precipitation has being decreasing in north China and the Yellow River Basin.But in the middle and lower Yangtze River Basin to south China precipitation is significantly increasing.These factors lead to the spatial pattern of flooding in the south and drought in the north.However,we found that lots of research works for precipitation are limited in recent 50 or 60years because of the length of observed data.Aiming at these problems,domestic and foreign research institutions paid great efforts to create some longer sequence global grid precipitation datasets,and used these datasets to carry out a lot of innovation research.So in this paper,the variation of precipitation was studied from 1901 to 2010in northeast China by using GPCC data.The results indicated that GPCC data showed significant correlation with the station data.GPCC show that the precipitation from 1901 to 2010is slight increasing in northeast China,and it displays similar spatial distribution of precipitation to station data.There are two relative drier periods from 1901 to 2010.The first period is from 1901 to 1930,and the other one is from 1971 to 2010,while the relative wet period is from 1931 to 1970.There is decreasing trend of autumn in 1901—2010,but precipitation is increasing in the other seasons.GPCC data have the annual,decadal and multi-decadal time scales cycle.Finally,we hopethis study can help deepen understanding of the climate change in northeast China,and provide reference for research on climate,ecology and hydrology by using the other relevant data as well.
引文
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[15]姜晓艳,刘树华,马明敏,等.东北地区近百年降水时间序列变化规律的小波分析[J].地理研究,2009,28(2):354-362.
[16]冯新,王新,王元.东北地区汛期降水与全球大洋海温异常关系的SVD分析[J].热带气象学报,2006,22(4):367-373.
[17]丁婷,陈丽娟,崔大海.东北夏季降水的年代际特征及环流变化[J].高原气象,2015,34(1):220-229.
[18]唐蕴,王浩,严登华,等.近50年来东北地区降水的时空分异研究[J].地理科学,2005,25(2):172-176.
[19]孙力,安刚,丁立,等.中国东北地区夏季降水异常的气候分析[J].气象学报,2000,58(1):70-82.
[20]Wan H,Zhang X,Zwiers F W,et al.Effect of data coverage on the estimation of mean and variability of precipitation at global and regional scales[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2013,118(2):534-546.
[21]濮冰,王绍武,朱锦红.中国东部四季降水量变化空间结构的研究[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2007,2(5):620-629.
[22]朱艳峰,陈隆勋,宇如聪.中国气候异常变化与ENSO准四年循环的联系分析[J].热带气象学报,2003,19(4):345-356.
[23]潘静,李崇银,顾薇.太阳活动对中国东部夏季降水异常的可能影响[J].气象科学,2010,30(5):574-581.
[24]曹永强,刘佳佳,高璐.近54年来辽西北地区降水与太阳黑子关系研究[J].地理科学,2015,35(8):1027-1032.
[2]王英,曹明奎,陶波,等.全球气候变化背景下中国降水量空间格局的变化特征[J].地理研究,2006,25(6):1031-1040.
[3]李红梅,周天军,宇如聪.近四十年我国东部盛夏日降水特性变化分析[J].大气科学,2008,32(2):358-370.
[4]孙林海,陈兴芳.南涝北旱的年代气候特点和形成条件[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(6):641-647.
[5]丁一汇,任国玉,石广玉,等.气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,2006,2(1):3-8.
[6]王绍武,龚道溢,叶瑾琳,等.1880年以来中国东部四季降水量序列及其变率[J].地理学报,2000,55(3):281-293.
[7]Schneider U,Becker A,Finger P,et al.GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on qualitycontrolled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2014,115(1-2):15-40.
[8]Krueger O,Schenk F,Feser F,et al.Inconsistencies between long-term trends in storminess derived from the20CR reanalysis and observations[J].Journal of Climate,2013,26(3):868-874.
[9]Wang X L,Feng Y,Compo G P,et al.Is the storminess in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis really inconsistent with observations?A reply to the comment by Krueger et al.(2013b)[J].Climate Dynamics,2014,42(3/4):1113-1125.
[10]Qian C,Zhou T.Multidecadal variability of North China aridity and its relationship to PDO during 1900—2010[J].Journal of Climate,2014,27(3):1210-1222.
[11]王芬,曹杰,李腹广,等.多套格点降水资料在云南及周边地区的对比[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(4):472-483.
[12]孙凤华,杨素英,任国玉.东北地区降水日数、强度和持续时间的年代际变化[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(5):610-618.
[13]贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等.1961—2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):519-531.
[14]梁军,张胜军,石小龙,等.2010年8月8—10日辽东半岛暴雨过程的中尺度特征分析[J].高原气象,2012,31(5):1320-1331.
[15]姜晓艳,刘树华,马明敏,等.东北地区近百年降水时间序列变化规律的小波分析[J].地理研究,2009,28(2):354-362.
[16]冯新,王新,王元.东北地区汛期降水与全球大洋海温异常关系的SVD分析[J].热带气象学报,2006,22(4):367-373.
[17]丁婷,陈丽娟,崔大海.东北夏季降水的年代际特征及环流变化[J].高原气象,2015,34(1):220-229.
[18]唐蕴,王浩,严登华,等.近50年来东北地区降水的时空分异研究[J].地理科学,2005,25(2):172-176.
[19]孙力,安刚,丁立,等.中国东北地区夏季降水异常的气候分析[J].气象学报,2000,58(1):70-82.
[20]Wan H,Zhang X,Zwiers F W,et al.Effect of data coverage on the estimation of mean and variability of precipitation at global and regional scales[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2013,118(2):534-546.
[21]濮冰,王绍武,朱锦红.中国东部四季降水量变化空间结构的研究[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2007,2(5):620-629.
[22]朱艳峰,陈隆勋,宇如聪.中国气候异常变化与ENSO准四年循环的联系分析[J].热带气象学报,2003,19(4):345-356.
[23]潘静,李崇银,顾薇.太阳活动对中国东部夏季降水异常的可能影响[J].气象科学,2010,30(5):574-581.
[24]曹永强,刘佳佳,高璐.近54年来辽西北地区降水与太阳黑子关系研究[J].地理科学,2015,35(8):1027-1032.