三套再分析降水资料在东北地区的适用性评价
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摘要
利用1980—2010年东北地区84个气象站月降水资料,基于相关分析、偏差比较、气候倾向率等方法,从不同时间尺度(年、季、月)对CFSR,MERRA和NCEP再分析降水资料在东北地区的适用性进行了比较,结果表明:三套再分析资料能够反映出东北地区年均降水东南多、西北少的分布特征,其中CFSR和MERRA对东北地区年均降水分布的刻画能力要好于NCEP。在年尺度上,CFSR和MERRA与观测资料的变化幅度更接近,其中,MERRA年均降水量与观测资料的差值最小,为42.4mm。三套再分析资料与观测资料在不同季节的相关性表现出一定的差异。首先,CFSR与观测资料在春、夏、秋3季的相关性要好于冬季;而MERRA与观测资料的相关性则是春、秋两季最优,冬、夏两季次之;NCEP在冬季与观测资料的相关性最好。其次,CFSR和MERRA在春、夏、秋3季与观测资料的相关性要好于NCEP;而在冬季,MERRA和NCEP与观测资料的相关性优于CFSR。在月尺度上,MERRA资料与观测降水的相关性优于CFSR和NCEP,MERRA与观测降水的平均绝对偏差在三套再分析资料中最小,为17.5 mm,CFSR和NCEP的这一差值分别为20.7mm和22.6mm。
Based on monthly precipitation data of 84 weather stations in northeast China from 1980 to 2010,we compared the differences of precipitation between reanalysis data and observation by using correlation analysis,deviation comparison and climate tendency.The results show that the three analysis data-sets(CFSR,MERRA and NCEP)can reflect the distribution of precipitation in northeast China.But CFSR and MERRA are better than NCEP in describing the details of precipitation.At the annual scale,the variation ranges of CFSR and MERRA are closer to observation data than NCEP,while the difference between MERRA annual precipitation and observation is smallest,which is 42.4 mm.It is found that there are some differences in significant correlation between three reanalysis data-sets and observed data.Firstly,the correlation of CFSR and observed data in spring,summer and autumn is better than winter.However,the correlation of MERRA and observed data is better in spring and autumn.Secondly,the correlation between CFSR,MERRA and observed data is better than NCEP in spring,summer and autumn.But in winter,MEERA and NCEP are better than CFSR.At the monthly scale,the mean absolute deviation of MERRA and observed data is the smallest among three data-sets,which is 17.5 mm.And the mean absolute deviations between CFSR,NCEP and observed data are 20.7 mm and 22.6 mm.
Based on monthly precipitation data of 84 weather stations in northeast China from 1980 to 2010,we compared the differences of precipitation between reanalysis data and observation by using correlation analysis,deviation comparison and climate tendency.The results show that the three analysis data-sets(CFSR,MERRA and NCEP)can reflect the distribution of precipitation in northeast China.But CFSR and MERRA are better than NCEP in describing the details of precipitation.At the annual scale,the variation ranges of CFSR and MERRA are closer to observation data than NCEP,while the difference between MERRA annual precipitation and observation is smallest,which is 42.4 mm.It is found that there are some differences in significant correlation between three reanalysis data-sets and observed data.Firstly,the correlation of CFSR and observed data in spring,summer and autumn is better than winter.However,the correlation of MERRA and observed data is better in spring and autumn.Secondly,the correlation between CFSR,MERRA and observed data is better than NCEP in spring,summer and autumn.But in winter,MEERA and NCEP are better than CFSR.At the monthly scale,the mean absolute deviation of MERRA and observed data is the smallest among three data-sets,which is 17.5 mm.And the mean absolute deviations between CFSR,NCEP and observed data are 20.7 mm and 22.6 mm.
引文
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[24]Bosilovich M G,Robertson F R,Chen J.Global energy and water budgets in MERRA[J].Journal of Climate,2011,24(22):5721-5739.
[2]赵天保,符淙斌,柯宗建,等.全球大气再分析资料的研究现状与进展[J].地球科学进展,2010,25(3):241-254.
[3]Blacutt L A,Herdies D L,de Gonalves L G G,et al.Precipitation comparison for the CFSR,MERRA,TRMM3B42and combined scheme datasets in Bolivia[J].Atmospheric Research,2015,163:117-131.
[4]Naud C M,Booth J F,Del Genio A D.Evaluation of ERA-Interim and MERRA cloudiness in the Southern Ocean[J].Journal of Climate,2014,27(5):2109-2124.
[5]Saha S,Moorthi S,Wu X,et al.The NCEP climate forecast system version 2[J].Journal of Climate,2014,27(6):2185-2208.
[6]赵天保,符淙斌.应用探空观测资料评估几类再分析资料在中国区域的适用性[J].大气科学,2009,33(3):634-648.
[7]赵天保,符淙斌.中国区域ERA-40,NCEP-2再分析资料与观测资料的初步比较与分析[J].气候与环境研究,2006,11(1):14-32.
[8]赵天保,华丽娟.几种再分析地表气压资料在中国区域的适用性评估[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(1):70-79.
[9]戴泽军,宇如聪,李建,等.三套再分析资料的中国夏季降水日变化特征[J].气象,2011,37(1):21-30.
[10]除多,杨勇,罗布坚参,等.MERRA再分析地面气温产品在青藏高原的适用性分析[J].高原气象,2016,35(2):337-350.
[11]Lawrence Z D,Manney G L,Minschwaner K,et al.Comparisons of polar processing diagnostics from 34years of the ERA-Interim and MERRA reanalyses[J].Atmospheric Chemistry&Physics,2015,15(7):3873-3892.
[12]Wang J,Wang W,Fu X,et al.Tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the CFSR[J].Climate Dynamics,2012,38(11/12):2191-2207.
[13]苏涛,封国林.中国夏季大气水分循环特征及再分析资料对比分析[J].物理学报,2014,63(24):489-501.
[14]范彬彬,罗格平,张弛,等.新疆夏季降水时空分布的适用性评估[J].地理研究,2013,32(9):1602-1612.
[15]王雨,张颖,傅云飞,等.第三代再分析水汽资料的气候态比较[J].中国科学:地球科学,2015,45(12):1895-1906.
[16]韦芬芬,汤剑平,王淑瑜.中国区域夏季再分析资料高空变量可信度的检验[J].地球物理学报,2015,58(2):383-397.
[17]支星,徐海明,米卫红,等.中国东北和西北地区3种再分析资料与探空资料的温度对比[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(6):147-157.
[18]李建,宇如聪,陈昊明,等.对三套再分析资料中国大陆地区夏季降水量的评估分析[J].气象,2010,36(12):1-9.
[19]韩晋平,王会军.东亚夏季风年代际变化的若干重要特征及两份大气再分析资料的异同[J].地球物理学报,2007,50(6):48-58.
[20]高庆九,管兆勇,蔡佳熙,等.两种再分析资料中夏季地表气温与中国测站资料的差异[J].大气科学,2010,34(3):471-482.
[21]吕少宁,文军,刘蓉.中国大陆地区不同降水资料的适用性及其应用潜力[J].高原气象,2011,30(3):628-640.
[22]Hodges K I,Lee R W,Bengtsson L.A comparison of extratropical cyclones in recent reanalyses ERA-Interim,NASA MERRA,NCEP CFSR,and JRA-25[J].Journal of Climate,2011,24(18):4888-4906.
[23]Wong S,Fetzer E J,Kahn B H,et al.Closing the global water vapor budget with AIRS water vapor,MERRA reanalysis,TRMM and GPCP precipitation,and GSSTF surface evaporation[J].Journal of Climate,2011,24(24):6307-6321.
[24]Bosilovich M G,Robertson F R,Chen J.Global energy and water budgets in MERRA[J].Journal of Climate,2011,24(22):5721-5739.