东道国金融发展水平对中国企业OFDI二元边际的影响
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摘要
东道国的金融环境是影响跨国企业对外直接投资决策的关键,随着我国对外开放进程的不断推进,能否融入并利用东道国的金融环境关系着企业OFDI的规模乃至成败。为此,本文以2005—2015年中国企业对外直接投资追踪数据为样本,考察了东道国金融发展水平对我国企业OFDI二元边际(集约边际和扩展边际)的影响。研究结果表明:在克服内生性问题之后,东道国金融发展水平对我国企业OFDI有显著的促进作用,且该作用在企业OFDI扩展边际中更为明显;在剔除金融危机、避税国家、金融行业的干扰以及替换解释变量指标后,该结论依然稳健;东道国较高的经济发展潜力有助于加强其金融发展水平对我国企业OFDI二元边际的促进作用;而金融发展水平对企业不同投资模式下OFDI二元边际的促进作用并不存在明显区别;在前三大行业中,东道国金融发展水平对能源行业OFDI二元边际的提升作用最为显著。本文的研究对于从东道国金融发展角度理解企业OFDI的结构性特征(二元边际)具有一定的参考价值。
As China deepens its opening-up process,host countries' financial environments are of vital importance to the decision-making of foreign direct investments of MNEs,whose FDI scales,as well as FDI success,are somewhat determined by its adapting to the host countries' financial environments. Based on the data of China Global Investment Tracker from the year of 2005 to 2015,this paper focuses on the impact of host countries' financial developments on Chinese firms' OFDI binary margins. After overcoming the problem of endogeneity,this paper finds that the levels of financial development in the host countries significantly promote Chinese firms' OFDI,and the conclusion is even more obvious in the extensive margin than the intensive margin. In addition,the heterogeneity test finds that while host countries with higher economic development potentials will help to promote financial developments to increase firms' OFDI binary margins,the promotion effects of financial development to the OFDI binary margins of firms under two different investment modes are not obviously different. Among the top three industries,the energy industry gains the most significant effect on its firms' OFDI margins. After excluding the disruptions of financial crises,tax havens,financial sectors and using alternative explanatory variables,the conclusion remains robust. The research in this paper has certain reference value for understanding the structural characteristics( binary margins) of MNEs' OFDI from the perspective of host countries' financial development.
As China deepens its opening-up process,host countries' financial environments are of vital importance to the decision-making of foreign direct investments of MNEs,whose FDI scales,as well as FDI success,are somewhat determined by its adapting to the host countries' financial environments. Based on the data of China Global Investment Tracker from the year of 2005 to 2015,this paper focuses on the impact of host countries' financial developments on Chinese firms' OFDI binary margins. After overcoming the problem of endogeneity,this paper finds that the levels of financial development in the host countries significantly promote Chinese firms' OFDI,and the conclusion is even more obvious in the extensive margin than the intensive margin. In addition,the heterogeneity test finds that while host countries with higher economic development potentials will help to promote financial developments to increase firms' OFDI binary margins,the promotion effects of financial development to the OFDI binary margins of firms under two different investment modes are not obviously different. Among the top three industries,the energy industry gains the most significant effect on its firms' OFDI margins. After excluding the disruptions of financial crises,tax havens,financial sectors and using alternative explanatory variables,the conclusion remains robust. The research in this paper has certain reference value for understanding the structural characteristics( binary margins) of MNEs' OFDI from the perspective of host countries' financial development.
引文
[1]陈岩,马利灵,钟昌标.中国对非洲投资决定因素:整合资源与制度视角的经验分析[J].世界经济,2012(10):91-112.
[2]韩立岩,顾雪松.中国对外直接投资是过度还是不足———基于制度视角与跨国面板数据的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2013(10):21-34.
[3]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.中国对发展中国家的投资———东道国制度重要吗[J].管理世界,2012(11):45-56.
[4]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.绿地投资还是跨国并购:中国企业对外直接投资方式的选择[J].世界经济,2017(7):126-146.
[5]刘青,陶攀,洪俊杰.中国海外并购的动因研究———基于广延边际与集约边际的视角[J].经济研究,2017(1):28-43.
[6]刘晓光,杨连星.双边政治关系、东道国制度环境与对外直接投资[J].金融研究,2016(12):17-31.
[7]乔晶,胡兵.中国对外直接投资:过度抑或不足[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(7):38-51.
[8]沈红波,寇宏,张川.金融发展、融资约束与企业投资的实证研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(6):55-64.
[9]杨连星,刘晓光,张杰.双边政治关系如何影响对外直接投资———基于二元边际和投资成败视角[J].中国工业经济,2016(11):56-72.
[10]张军,金煜.中国的金融深化和生产率关系的再检测:1987-2001[J].经济研究,2005(11):34-45.
[11]ACEMOGLU D,ZILIBOTTI F. Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk,Diversification,and Growth[J].Journal of Political Economy,1997,105(4):709-751.
[12]ANDERSON J E. A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation[J]. American Economic Review,1979,69(1):106-116.
[13]ANTRS,POL,DESAI M A,FOLEY C F. Multinational Firms,FDI Flows,and Imperfect Capital Markets[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2009,124(3):1171-1219.
[14]ALFARO L,KALEMLIOZCAN S,VOLOSOVYCH V. Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? AnEmpirical Investigation[J]. Review of Economics&Statistics,2008,90(2):347-368.
[15]BNASSY-QUR A,COUPET M,MAYER T. Institutional Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment[J].World Economy,2007,30(5):764-782.
[16]BERGSTRAND J H,EGGER P. A Knowledge-and-Physical-Capital Model of International Trade Flows,ForeignDirect Investment,and Multinational Enterprises[J]. Journal of International Economics,2007,73(2):278-308.
[17]BILIR L K. Patent Laws,Product Life-Cycle Lengths,and Multinational Activity[J]. American Economic Re-view,2014,104(104):1979-2013.
[18]BUCKLEY P J,CLEGG L J,CROSS A R,et al. The Determinants of Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment[M]. Edward Elgar,2011,38(4):499-518.
[19]CLAESSENS S,LAEVEN L. Financial Development,Property Rights,and Growth[J]. The Journal of Finance,2003,58(6):36.
[20]DEMIRGC-KUNT A,MAKSIMOVIC V. Law,Finance,and Firm Growth[J]. The Journal of Finance,1998,53(6):2107-2137.
[21]DESBORDES R,WEI S J. The Effects of Financial Development on Foreign Direct Investment[J]. Journal of De-velopment Economics,2017(127):153-168.
[22]DHARMAPALA D,HINES J R. Which Countries Become Tax Havens?[J]. Journal of Public Economics,2009,93(9):1058-1068.
[23]DJANKOV S,PORTA R L,LOPEZDESILANES F,et al. Courts[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,2003,118(2):453-517.
[24]DUNNING J H. Explaining the International Direct Investment Position of Countries:Towards a Dynamic or Devel-opmental Approach[J]. Review of World Economics,1981(3):30-64.
[25]EICHERr T S,HELFMAN L,LENKOSKI A. Robust FDI Determinants:Bayesian Model Averaging in the Pres-ence of Selection Bias[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics,2012,34(3):637-651.
[26]FOSS N J. Resources,Firms,and Strategies:A Reader in the Resource-based Perspective[M]. OxfordUniversity Press on Demand,1997.
[27]FROOT K,STEIN J C. Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment:An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1991,106(4):1191-1217.
[28]HAJZLER,C. Resource-based FDI and Expropriation in Developing Economies[J]. Journal of International Eco-nomics,2014,92(1):124-146.
[29]HELPMAN E,MELITZ M J,YEAPLE S R. Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms[J]. American Eco-nomic Review,2004,94(1):300-316.
[30]HENNART J F,PARK Y R. Location,Governance,and Strategic Determinants of Japanese Manufacturing In-vestment in the United States[J]. Strategic Management Journal,1994,15(6):419-436.
[31]KOLSTAD I,WIIG A. What Determines Chinese Outward FDI?[J]. Journal of World Business,2012,47(1):26-34.
[32]LA PORTA R. Law and Finance[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1998,106(6):1113-1155.
[33]LEVINE R. Financial Development and Economic Growth:Views and Agenda[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,1997,35(2):688-726.
[34]LOVE L. Financial Development and Financial Constraints:International Evidence from the Structural InvestmentModel[J]. Review of Financial Studies,2003,16(3):765-791.
[35]MANOVA K. Credit Constraints,Equity Market Liberalizations and International Trade[J]. Journal of Internation-al Economics,2008,76(1):33-47.
[36]MASKUS K E,NEUMANN R,SEIDEL T. How National and International Financial Development AffectIndustrial R&D[J]. European Economic Review,2012,56(1):72-83.
[37]MELITZ M J,OTTAVIANO G I P. Market Size,Trade,and Productivity[C]. 2005.
[38]MENDOZA E G,QUADRINI V,RIOSRULLl J V. Financial Integration,Financial Deepness and Global Imbal-ances[J]. Journal of Political Economy,2008,117(3):371-416.
[39]MISHRA A,DALY K. Effect of Quality of Institutions on Outward Foreign Direct Investment[J]. The Journal ofInternational Trade&Economic Development,2007,16(2):231-244.
[40]QUER D,CLAVER E,RIENDA L. Political Risk,Cultural Distance,and Outward Foreign Direct Investment:Empirical Evidence from Large Chinese Firms[J]. Asia Pacific Journal of Management,2012,29(4):1089-1104.
[41]RAJAN R G,ZINGALES L. Financial Dependence and Growth[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,1998,88(3):559-586.
[42]SADORSKY P. Financial Development and Energy Consumption in Central and Eastern European Frontier Econo-mies[J]. Energy Policy,2011,39(2):999-1006.
[43]SCHNITZER M,BUCH C M,KESTERNICH I,et al. Exports Versus FDI Revisited:Does Finance Matter[J].Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper Series 1:Economic Studies,2010,3.
[44]WANG C,HONG J,KAFOUROS M,et al. What Drives Outward FDI of Chinese Firms? Testing the ExplanatoryPower of Three Theoretical Frameworks[J]. International Business Review,2012,21(3):425-438.
[45]ZURAWICKI H L. Corruption and Foreign Direct Investment[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,2002,33(2):291-307.
(1)为各国吸收外资总额,按照每个国家吸收外资金额的大小,本文将其划分为三等分,分别为高等OFDI金额组、中等OFDI金额组以及低等OFDI金额组。
(1)借鉴La Porta等(1998)的做法,本文构建两个工具变量,包括大陆法系和普通法系,其中大陆法系包括法国大陆法系、德国大陆法系、斯堪的纳维亚法系和社会主义法系;普通法系包括英国普通法系。各国法律起源的数据来自于La Porta等(1998)。
(1)具体的做法是将各国GDP增长率作为衡量东道国市场增长潜力的指标(刘青等,2017),低于平均GDP增长率的国家记为经济发展潜力小的国家;反之,高于GDP增长率的国家记为经济发展潜力大的国家。
(2)构建投资模式指标,若中国企业选择绿地投资,则该指标为1,否则为0。
[2]韩立岩,顾雪松.中国对外直接投资是过度还是不足———基于制度视角与跨国面板数据的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2013(10):21-34.
[3]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.中国对发展中国家的投资———东道国制度重要吗[J].管理世界,2012(11):45-56.
[4]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.绿地投资还是跨国并购:中国企业对外直接投资方式的选择[J].世界经济,2017(7):126-146.
[5]刘青,陶攀,洪俊杰.中国海外并购的动因研究———基于广延边际与集约边际的视角[J].经济研究,2017(1):28-43.
[6]刘晓光,杨连星.双边政治关系、东道国制度环境与对外直接投资[J].金融研究,2016(12):17-31.
[7]乔晶,胡兵.中国对外直接投资:过度抑或不足[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(7):38-51.
[8]沈红波,寇宏,张川.金融发展、融资约束与企业投资的实证研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(6):55-64.
[9]杨连星,刘晓光,张杰.双边政治关系如何影响对外直接投资———基于二元边际和投资成败视角[J].中国工业经济,2016(11):56-72.
[10]张军,金煜.中国的金融深化和生产率关系的再检测:1987-2001[J].经济研究,2005(11):34-45.
[11]ACEMOGLU D,ZILIBOTTI F. Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk,Diversification,and Growth[J].Journal of Political Economy,1997,105(4):709-751.
[12]ANDERSON J E. A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation[J]. American Economic Review,1979,69(1):106-116.
[13]ANTRS,POL,DESAI M A,FOLEY C F. Multinational Firms,FDI Flows,and Imperfect Capital Markets[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2009,124(3):1171-1219.
[14]ALFARO L,KALEMLIOZCAN S,VOLOSOVYCH V. Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? AnEmpirical Investigation[J]. Review of Economics&Statistics,2008,90(2):347-368.
[15]BNASSY-QUR A,COUPET M,MAYER T. Institutional Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment[J].World Economy,2007,30(5):764-782.
[16]BERGSTRAND J H,EGGER P. A Knowledge-and-Physical-Capital Model of International Trade Flows,ForeignDirect Investment,and Multinational Enterprises[J]. Journal of International Economics,2007,73(2):278-308.
[17]BILIR L K. Patent Laws,Product Life-Cycle Lengths,and Multinational Activity[J]. American Economic Re-view,2014,104(104):1979-2013.
[18]BUCKLEY P J,CLEGG L J,CROSS A R,et al. The Determinants of Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment[M]. Edward Elgar,2011,38(4):499-518.
[19]CLAESSENS S,LAEVEN L. Financial Development,Property Rights,and Growth[J]. The Journal of Finance,2003,58(6):36.
[20]DEMIRGC-KUNT A,MAKSIMOVIC V. Law,Finance,and Firm Growth[J]. The Journal of Finance,1998,53(6):2107-2137.
[21]DESBORDES R,WEI S J. The Effects of Financial Development on Foreign Direct Investment[J]. Journal of De-velopment Economics,2017(127):153-168.
[22]DHARMAPALA D,HINES J R. Which Countries Become Tax Havens?[J]. Journal of Public Economics,2009,93(9):1058-1068.
[23]DJANKOV S,PORTA R L,LOPEZDESILANES F,et al. Courts[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,2003,118(2):453-517.
[24]DUNNING J H. Explaining the International Direct Investment Position of Countries:Towards a Dynamic or Devel-opmental Approach[J]. Review of World Economics,1981(3):30-64.
[25]EICHERr T S,HELFMAN L,LENKOSKI A. Robust FDI Determinants:Bayesian Model Averaging in the Pres-ence of Selection Bias[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics,2012,34(3):637-651.
[26]FOSS N J. Resources,Firms,and Strategies:A Reader in the Resource-based Perspective[M]. OxfordUniversity Press on Demand,1997.
[27]FROOT K,STEIN J C. Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment:An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1991,106(4):1191-1217.
[28]HAJZLER,C. Resource-based FDI and Expropriation in Developing Economies[J]. Journal of International Eco-nomics,2014,92(1):124-146.
[29]HELPMAN E,MELITZ M J,YEAPLE S R. Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms[J]. American Eco-nomic Review,2004,94(1):300-316.
[30]HENNART J F,PARK Y R. Location,Governance,and Strategic Determinants of Japanese Manufacturing In-vestment in the United States[J]. Strategic Management Journal,1994,15(6):419-436.
[31]KOLSTAD I,WIIG A. What Determines Chinese Outward FDI?[J]. Journal of World Business,2012,47(1):26-34.
[32]LA PORTA R. Law and Finance[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1998,106(6):1113-1155.
[33]LEVINE R. Financial Development and Economic Growth:Views and Agenda[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,1997,35(2):688-726.
[34]LOVE L. Financial Development and Financial Constraints:International Evidence from the Structural InvestmentModel[J]. Review of Financial Studies,2003,16(3):765-791.
[35]MANOVA K. Credit Constraints,Equity Market Liberalizations and International Trade[J]. Journal of Internation-al Economics,2008,76(1):33-47.
[36]MASKUS K E,NEUMANN R,SEIDEL T. How National and International Financial Development AffectIndustrial R&D[J]. European Economic Review,2012,56(1):72-83.
[37]MELITZ M J,OTTAVIANO G I P. Market Size,Trade,and Productivity[C]. 2005.
[38]MENDOZA E G,QUADRINI V,RIOSRULLl J V. Financial Integration,Financial Deepness and Global Imbal-ances[J]. Journal of Political Economy,2008,117(3):371-416.
[39]MISHRA A,DALY K. Effect of Quality of Institutions on Outward Foreign Direct Investment[J]. The Journal ofInternational Trade&Economic Development,2007,16(2):231-244.
[40]QUER D,CLAVER E,RIENDA L. Political Risk,Cultural Distance,and Outward Foreign Direct Investment:Empirical Evidence from Large Chinese Firms[J]. Asia Pacific Journal of Management,2012,29(4):1089-1104.
[41]RAJAN R G,ZINGALES L. Financial Dependence and Growth[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,1998,88(3):559-586.
[42]SADORSKY P. Financial Development and Energy Consumption in Central and Eastern European Frontier Econo-mies[J]. Energy Policy,2011,39(2):999-1006.
[43]SCHNITZER M,BUCH C M,KESTERNICH I,et al. Exports Versus FDI Revisited:Does Finance Matter[J].Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper Series 1:Economic Studies,2010,3.
[44]WANG C,HONG J,KAFOUROS M,et al. What Drives Outward FDI of Chinese Firms? Testing the ExplanatoryPower of Three Theoretical Frameworks[J]. International Business Review,2012,21(3):425-438.
[45]ZURAWICKI H L. Corruption and Foreign Direct Investment[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,2002,33(2):291-307.
(1)为各国吸收外资总额,按照每个国家吸收外资金额的大小,本文将其划分为三等分,分别为高等OFDI金额组、中等OFDI金额组以及低等OFDI金额组。
(1)借鉴La Porta等(1998)的做法,本文构建两个工具变量,包括大陆法系和普通法系,其中大陆法系包括法国大陆法系、德国大陆法系、斯堪的纳维亚法系和社会主义法系;普通法系包括英国普通法系。各国法律起源的数据来自于La Porta等(1998)。
(1)具体的做法是将各国GDP增长率作为衡量东道国市场增长潜力的指标(刘青等,2017),低于平均GDP增长率的国家记为经济发展潜力小的国家;反之,高于GDP增长率的国家记为经济发展潜力大的国家。
(2)构建投资模式指标,若中国企业选择绿地投资,则该指标为1,否则为0。