田间肥效试验数据的频率分析和施肥决策
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摘要
为解决农业试验统计分析软件、扬州分析器(2.2)、Excel进行回归分析建立的部分非典型性肥料效应方程推荐的施肥量出现异常偏大、偏低甚至负值,脱离当地生产实际的问题。本文应用概率理论的基本知识和频数的原理和方法,对油菜田间肥效试验数据应用频率分析法进行统计分析,得到的油菜优化施肥量产量为1732.4 kg/hm2,氮、磷、钾优化组合范围分别为210.36~149.64 kg/hm2、81.89~58.11 kg/hm2、81.89~58.11 kg/hm2,与试验地(田)和当地生产实际相吻合。本研究是在频率分析的基础上,用加权平均方法,确定各种不同产量目标的生产因素组合,将其中产量高,出现频率大(稳产),用肥节省的组合作为优化生产措施,具有增加施肥决策信息量,减少或避免小概率事件的风险的优点。可解决肥效试验数据分析统计汇总,应用扬州分析器(2.2)、Excel、DPS等统计分析软件进行回归分析建立的部分非典型肥料效应函数推荐的施肥量和目标产量出现异常值,与当地生产实际不相符的问题。肥料效应函数方程经方差分析不显著的试验,能否应用该研究方法进行施肥决策,推荐氮、磷、钾肥料优化组合和优化施肥量产量,还需在以后的工作实践中进一步探讨。
The part of fertilizer effect of atypical equation recommended by agricultural experiments and statistical analysis software, Yangzhou analyzer(2.2), regression analysis of Excel fertilization appears abnormal low, even negative, from the local production of practical problems. The study adopted the principle and method of basic knowledge and the frequency of using probability theory and carried out statistical analysis on the rape field fertilizer experiment data by frequency analysis method, the optimal fertilization rapeyield was 1732.4 kg/hm2, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium optimization combination ranges were 210.36-149.64 kg/hm2, 81.89-58.11 kg/hm2, 81.89-58.11 kg/hm2, coincided with testing(Tian) and local productionreality. This research is based on frequency analysis, using the weighted average method with production factors to determine the different target yield, and took the high yield, stable frequency of high yield and optimizing of production measures as the combination of fertilizer saving to increase the advantage offertilization decision-making, therefore reduce or avoid the risk of low probability. The results of this study could solve the problem of abnormal values caused by Yangzhou analyzer(2.2), regression analysis of Excel,and DPS statistical analysis software. The function of fertilizer effect equation by the analysis of variance test was not significant, and the application of the research methods of fertilization and the recommended optimization of fertilization of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium still need to practice in further study.
The part of fertilizer effect of atypical equation recommended by agricultural experiments and statistical analysis software, Yangzhou analyzer(2.2), regression analysis of Excel fertilization appears abnormal low, even negative, from the local production of practical problems. The study adopted the principle and method of basic knowledge and the frequency of using probability theory and carried out statistical analysis on the rape field fertilizer experiment data by frequency analysis method, the optimal fertilization rapeyield was 1732.4 kg/hm2, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium optimization combination ranges were 210.36-149.64 kg/hm2, 81.89-58.11 kg/hm2, 81.89-58.11 kg/hm2, coincided with testing(Tian) and local productionreality. This research is based on frequency analysis, using the weighted average method with production factors to determine the different target yield, and took the high yield, stable frequency of high yield and optimizing of production measures as the combination of fertilizer saving to increase the advantage offertilization decision-making, therefore reduce or avoid the risk of low probability. The results of this study could solve the problem of abnormal values caused by Yangzhou analyzer(2.2), regression analysis of Excel,and DPS statistical analysis software. The function of fertilizer effect equation by the analysis of variance test was not significant, and the application of the research methods of fertilization and the recommended optimization of fertilization of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium still need to practice in further study.
引文
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[18]朱显海.概率论与数理统计[M].长春:东北师范大学出版社,1990:2-9.
[19]方萍.实用农业试验设计与统计分析指南[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2000.
[20]何晓滨,熊艳,孔令郁.3414田间试验统计分析方法[C].2010.
[2]陈建祥,张安平,周文娟,等.油菜“3414”田间肥效试验研究[J].科园月刊,2011(01):44-45.
[3]肖志江,贺峰,蒋代铭,等.油菜“3414”施肥效果试验[J].湖北农业科学,2010(05):1068-1070.
[4]诸化斌,魏彬彬.油菜“3414”肥效田间试验报告[J].现代农业科技,2010(20):48-49,53.
[5]李大群,雷廷英,汪森富.油菜“3414”肥料效应试验研究[J].现代农业科技,2010(09):53-54.
[6]吴志勇,杜之虎,徐鸿,等.利用Excel进行3414肥效统计分析[J].新疆农垦科技,2007(02):66-68.
[7]徐卫华,吴雪芬,张远照.基于Excel的“3414”田间肥效试验模型的应用研究[J].现代农业科技,2012(07):19-23.
[8]张建平,李爱群,叶茂华.甜玉米“3414”田间肥效试验[J].现代农业科技,2013(01):11-12.
[9]张祯勇,高明文,肖启银,等.基于R语言的“3414”肥效试验的统计分析[J].中国农学通报,201127(27):127-134.
[10]戴树荣.应用“3414”试验设计建立二次肥料效应函数寻求马铃薯氮磷钾适宜施肥量的研究[J].中国农学通报2010,26(12):154-159.
[11]胡胜勇,王龙,吴恩华,等.铜梁县玉米测土配方施肥试验及模型拟合研究[J].西南师范大学学报:自然科学版,2009(06):134-138.
[12]肖茂盛,潘礼斌,赵吉胜,等.水稻“3414”肥效田间试验报告[J].现代农业科技,2010(06):50-51+54.
[13]宋晓梅,蒋太明,刘洪武,等.基于_3414_田间试验的水稻施肥模型的研究-以重庆市合川区为例[J].西南师范大学学报:自然科学版,2010(09):94-99.
[14]岳素清,金喜强.玉米肥料效应函数建立与应用的研究[J].内蒙古农业科技,2008(6):20-21.
[15]李洪文,李保华,李春莲,等.紫砂泥田水稻“3414”肥料效应田间试验[J].现代农业科技,2012(19):14-16.
[16]程秋华,陆萍,冯建忠,等.水稻氮、磷、钾“3414”肥效试验初报[J].上海农业学报,2012,28(2):137-142.
[17]宋朝玉,高峻岭,张清霞,等.“3414”肥料试验结果统计分析方法的探讨[J].山东农业科学,2009(9):93-96.
[18]朱显海.概率论与数理统计[M].长春:东北师范大学出版社,1990:2-9.
[19]方萍.实用农业试验设计与统计分析指南[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2000.
[20]何晓滨,熊艳,孔令郁.3414田间试验统计分析方法[C].2010.