田间肥效试验数据的频率分析和施肥决策（英文）
|
摘要
为解决农业试验统计分析软件、扬州分析器(2.2)、Excel进行回归分析建立的部分非典型性肥料效应方程推荐的施肥量出现异常偏大、偏低甚至负值,脱离当地生产实际的问题。该文应用概率理论的基本知识和频数的原理和方法,对油菜田间肥效试验数据应用频率分析法进行统计分析,得到的油菜优化施肥量产量为1 732.4 kg/hm2,氮、磷、钾优化组合合范围分别为210.36~149.64、81.89~58.11、81.89~58.11 kg/hm2,与试验地(田)和当地生产实际相吻合。该研究是在频率分析的基础上,用加权平均方法,确定各种不同产量目标的生产因素组合,将其中产量高,出现频率大(稳产),用肥节省的组合作为优化生产措施,具有增加施肥决策信息量,减少或避免小概率事件的风险的优点。可解决肥效试验数据分析统计汇总应用扬州分析器(2.2)、Excel、DPS等统计分析软件进行回归分析建立的部分非典型肥料效应函数推荐的施肥量和目标产量出现异常值,与当地生产实际不相符的问题。肥料效应函数方程经方差分析不显著的试验,能否应用该研究方法进行施肥决策,推荐氮、磷、钾肥料优化组合和优化施肥量产量,还需在以后的工作实践中进一步探讨。
To solve the problems of abnormal larger, abnormal lower or even negative of target yield and fertilizing amount recommended by part of non-typical fertilizer effect equations using agricultural experiments and statistical analysis software,Yangzhou analyzer(2.2), regression analysis of Excel, which objected to local actual production, the study adopted the principle and method of basic knowledge and the frequency of using probability theory, and carried out statistical analysis on the rape field fertilizer experiment data by frequency analysis method, the rape yield after optimizing fertilizing amount was 1 732.4 kg/hm2, the ranges of N, P and K optimal combinations were: N=210.36-149.64 kg/hm2,P2O5=81.89-58.11 kg/hm2, K2O=81.89-58.11 kg/hm2,which was consistent with local actual production. This study was based on frequency analysis, using weighted average method to determine the production combinations of different yield objectives, hereinto, the combinations with high yield, high frequency of occurrence(dependable crop) and fertilizer-saving were viewed as the optimizing production measures, and they had the merits of increasing fertilization decision-making information, reducing or avoiding the risk of small probability event. The results of this study can solve the problem of abnormal values fertilizing amount and target yield recommended by non-typical fertilizer effect function, which did not accord with local actual production, caused by Yangzhou analyzer(2.2), regression analysis of Excel, and DPS statistical analysis software. For the fertilizer effect function equation established by regression analysis which did not reach significance level using variance analysis, whether the method can be adapted to for carrying out fertilization decision-making, recommending optimization combinations of N, P and K fertilizers and yield under optimized fertilizing amount should be further researched in future working practice.
To solve the problems of abnormal larger, abnormal lower or even negative of target yield and fertilizing amount recommended by part of non-typical fertilizer effect equations using agricultural experiments and statistical analysis software,Yangzhou analyzer(2.2), regression analysis of Excel, which objected to local actual production, the study adopted the principle and method of basic knowledge and the frequency of using probability theory, and carried out statistical analysis on the rape field fertilizer experiment data by frequency analysis method, the rape yield after optimizing fertilizing amount was 1 732.4 kg/hm2, the ranges of N, P and K optimal combinations were: N=210.36-149.64 kg/hm2,P2O5=81.89-58.11 kg/hm2, K2O=81.89-58.11 kg/hm2,which was consistent with local actual production. This study was based on frequency analysis, using weighted average method to determine the production combinations of different yield objectives, hereinto, the combinations with high yield, high frequency of occurrence(dependable crop) and fertilizer-saving were viewed as the optimizing production measures, and they had the merits of increasing fertilization decision-making information, reducing or avoiding the risk of small probability event. The results of this study can solve the problem of abnormal values fertilizing amount and target yield recommended by non-typical fertilizer effect function, which did not accord with local actual production, caused by Yangzhou analyzer(2.2), regression analysis of Excel, and DPS statistical analysis software. For the fertilizer effect function equation established by regression analysis which did not reach significance level using variance analysis, whether the method can be adapted to for carrying out fertilization decision-making, recommending optimization combinations of N, P and K fertilizers and yield under optimized fertilizing amount should be further researched in future working practice.
引文
[1]SUN KG(孙克刚),YANG ZJ(杨稚娟),WANG SG(王守刚),et al.Rape apply fertilizer mathematics model and give a recommendation and apply fertilizer the measure study by goal output(油菜目标产量施肥数学模型及氮磷钾肥推荐措施研究)[J].Soils and Fertilizers(土壤肥料),2006(1):21-23.
[2]CHEN JX(陈建祥),ZHANG AP(张安平),ZHOU WJ(周文娟),et al.Experiment on oilseed rape“3414”field fertilizing effect(油菜“3414”田间肥效试验研究)[J].Keyuan Monthly Publication(科园月刊),2011(1):44-45.
[3]XIAO ZJ(肖志江),HE F(贺峰),JIANG DM(蒋代铭),et al.Experiment on oilseed rape“3414”fertilizing effect(油菜“3414”施肥效果试验)[J].Hubei Agricultural Sciences(湖北农业科学),2010,49(5):1068-1070.
[4]ZHU HB(诸化斌),WEI BB(魏彬彬).Report of field fertilizing effect of oilseed rape“3414”(油菜“3414”肥效田间试验报告)[J].Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology(现代农业科技),2010(20):48-49,53.
[5]LI DQ(李大群),LEI TY(雷廷英),WANG SF(汪森富).Experiment on oilseed rape“3414”fertilizing effect(油菜“3414”肥料效应试验研究)[J].Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology(现代农业科技),2010(09):53-54.
[6]WU ZY(吴志勇),DU ZH(杜之虎),XU H(徐鸿),et al.Statistics and analysis on“3414”fertilizing effect using Excel(利用Excel进行3414肥效统计分析)[J].Xinjiang Farmland Reclamation Science&Technology(新疆农垦科技),2007(2):66-68.
[7]XU WH(徐卫华),WU XF(吴雪芬),ZHANG YZ(张远照).Applied research of fertilizer efficiency in“3414”field trial model based on Excel(基于Excel的“3414”田间肥效试验模型的应用研究)[J].Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology(现代农业科技),2012(7):19-21.
[8]ZHANG JP(张建平),LI AQ(李爱群),YE MH(叶茂华).Experiment on sweet corn“3414”field fertilizing effect(甜玉米“3414”田间肥效试验)[J].Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology(现代农业科技),2013(1):11-12.
[9]ZHANG ZY(张祯勇),GAO MW(高明文),XIAO QY(肖启银),et al.The statistic analysis of"3414"fertilizer experiment using R language(基于R语言的“3414”肥效试验的统计分析)[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin(中国农学通报),2011,27(27):127-134.
[10]DAI SR(戴树荣).NPK reasonable application rate on potato by establishing fertilizer effect model of second degree polynomial using"3414"experimental design(应用“3414”试验设计建立二次肥料效应函数寻求马铃薯氮磷钾适宜施肥量的研究)[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin(中国农学通报),2010,26(12):154-159.
[11]HU SY(胡胜勇),WANG L(王龙),WU EH(吴恩华),et al.Study on formula application by soil testing of corn and model simulations in Tongliang County(铜梁县玉米测土配方施肥试验及模型拟合研究)[J].Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science)(西南师范大学学报:自然科学版),2009,34(6):134-138.
[12]XIAO MS(肖茂盛),PAN LB(潘礼斌),ZHAO JS(赵吉胜),et al.Report of rice“3414”field fertilizing effect(水稻“3414”肥效田间试验报告)[J].Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology(现代农业科技),2010(6):50-51,54.
[13]SONG XM(宋晓梅),JIANG TM(蒋太明),LIU HW(刘洪武),et al.Research on a rice fertilization model based on the"3414"field trial(基于_3414_田间试验的水稻施肥模型的研究-以重庆市合川区为例)[J].Journal of Southwest Agricultural University(Natural Science)(西南师范大学学报:自然科学版),2010(9):94-99.
[14]YUE SQ(岳素清),JIN XQ(金喜强).Fertilizer effect function construction in maize and its application(玉米肥料效应函数建立与应用的研究)[J].Inner Mongolia Agricultural Science and Technology(内蒙古农业科技),2008(6):20-21.
[15]LI HW(李洪文),LI BH(李保华),LI CL(李春莲),et al.Experiment on rice“3414”field fertilizing effect in Yixing clay field(紫砂泥田水稻“3414”肥料效应田间试验)[J].Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology(现代农业科技),2012(19):14-16.
[16]CHENG QH(程秋华),LU P(陆萍),FENG JZ(冯建忠),et al.Preliminary study on effects of N,P and K on rice by"3414"fertilizer test(水稻氮磷钾“3414”肥效试验初报)[J].Acta Agriculturae Shanghai(上海农业学报),2012,28(2):137-142.
[17]SONG CY(宋朝玉),GAO JL(高峻岭),ZHANG QX(张清霞),et al.Discussion on statistical analysis of“3414”fertilizer test results(“3414”肥料试验结果统计分析方法的探讨)[J].Shandong Agricultural Sciences(山东农业科学),2009(9):93-96.
[18]ZHU XH(朱显海).Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics(概率论与数理统计)[M].Changchun:Northeast Normal University Press(长春:东北师范大学出版社),1990:2-9.
[19]FANG P(方萍).Experiment Design and Statistical Analysis Guideline of Practical Agricultural(实用农业试验设计与统计分析指南)[M].Beijing:China Agriculture Press(北京:中国农业出版社),2000.
[20]HE XB(何晓滨),XIONG Y(熊艳),KONG LY(孔令郁).Statistical analysis technique of 3414 field experiment(3414田间试验统计分析方法)[C].2010.
[2]CHEN JX(陈建祥),ZHANG AP(张安平),ZHOU WJ(周文娟),et al.Experiment on oilseed rape“3414”field fertilizing effect(油菜“3414”田间肥效试验研究)[J].Keyuan Monthly Publication(科园月刊),2011(1):44-45.
[3]XIAO ZJ(肖志江),HE F(贺峰),JIANG DM(蒋代铭),et al.Experiment on oilseed rape“3414”fertilizing effect(油菜“3414”施肥效果试验)[J].Hubei Agricultural Sciences(湖北农业科学),2010,49(5):1068-1070.
[4]ZHU HB(诸化斌),WEI BB(魏彬彬).Report of field fertilizing effect of oilseed rape“3414”(油菜“3414”肥效田间试验报告)[J].Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology(现代农业科技),2010(20):48-49,53.
[5]LI DQ(李大群),LEI TY(雷廷英),WANG SF(汪森富).Experiment on oilseed rape“3414”fertilizing effect(油菜“3414”肥料效应试验研究)[J].Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology(现代农业科技),2010(09):53-54.
[6]WU ZY(吴志勇),DU ZH(杜之虎),XU H(徐鸿),et al.Statistics and analysis on“3414”fertilizing effect using Excel(利用Excel进行3414肥效统计分析)[J].Xinjiang Farmland Reclamation Science&Technology(新疆农垦科技),2007(2):66-68.
[7]XU WH(徐卫华),WU XF(吴雪芬),ZHANG YZ(张远照).Applied research of fertilizer efficiency in“3414”field trial model based on Excel(基于Excel的“3414”田间肥效试验模型的应用研究)[J].Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology(现代农业科技),2012(7):19-21.
[8]ZHANG JP(张建平),LI AQ(李爱群),YE MH(叶茂华).Experiment on sweet corn“3414”field fertilizing effect(甜玉米“3414”田间肥效试验)[J].Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology(现代农业科技),2013(1):11-12.
[9]ZHANG ZY(张祯勇),GAO MW(高明文),XIAO QY(肖启银),et al.The statistic analysis of"3414"fertilizer experiment using R language(基于R语言的“3414”肥效试验的统计分析)[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin(中国农学通报),2011,27(27):127-134.
[10]DAI SR(戴树荣).NPK reasonable application rate on potato by establishing fertilizer effect model of second degree polynomial using"3414"experimental design(应用“3414”试验设计建立二次肥料效应函数寻求马铃薯氮磷钾适宜施肥量的研究)[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin(中国农学通报),2010,26(12):154-159.
[11]HU SY(胡胜勇),WANG L(王龙),WU EH(吴恩华),et al.Study on formula application by soil testing of corn and model simulations in Tongliang County(铜梁县玉米测土配方施肥试验及模型拟合研究)[J].Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science)(西南师范大学学报:自然科学版),2009,34(6):134-138.
[12]XIAO MS(肖茂盛),PAN LB(潘礼斌),ZHAO JS(赵吉胜),et al.Report of rice“3414”field fertilizing effect(水稻“3414”肥效田间试验报告)[J].Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology(现代农业科技),2010(6):50-51,54.
[13]SONG XM(宋晓梅),JIANG TM(蒋太明),LIU HW(刘洪武),et al.Research on a rice fertilization model based on the"3414"field trial(基于_3414_田间试验的水稻施肥模型的研究-以重庆市合川区为例)[J].Journal of Southwest Agricultural University(Natural Science)(西南师范大学学报:自然科学版),2010(9):94-99.
[14]YUE SQ(岳素清),JIN XQ(金喜强).Fertilizer effect function construction in maize and its application(玉米肥料效应函数建立与应用的研究)[J].Inner Mongolia Agricultural Science and Technology(内蒙古农业科技),2008(6):20-21.
[15]LI HW(李洪文),LI BH(李保华),LI CL(李春莲),et al.Experiment on rice“3414”field fertilizing effect in Yixing clay field(紫砂泥田水稻“3414”肥料效应田间试验)[J].Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology(现代农业科技),2012(19):14-16.
[16]CHENG QH(程秋华),LU P(陆萍),FENG JZ(冯建忠),et al.Preliminary study on effects of N,P and K on rice by"3414"fertilizer test(水稻氮磷钾“3414”肥效试验初报)[J].Acta Agriculturae Shanghai(上海农业学报),2012,28(2):137-142.
[17]SONG CY(宋朝玉),GAO JL(高峻岭),ZHANG QX(张清霞),et al.Discussion on statistical analysis of“3414”fertilizer test results(“3414”肥料试验结果统计分析方法的探讨)[J].Shandong Agricultural Sciences(山东农业科学),2009(9):93-96.
[18]ZHU XH(朱显海).Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics(概率论与数理统计)[M].Changchun:Northeast Normal University Press(长春:东北师范大学出版社),1990:2-9.
[19]FANG P(方萍).Experiment Design and Statistical Analysis Guideline of Practical Agricultural(实用农业试验设计与统计分析指南)[M].Beijing:China Agriculture Press(北京:中国农业出版社),2000.
[20]HE XB(何晓滨),XIONG Y(熊艳),KONG LY(孔令郁).Statistical analysis technique of 3414 field experiment(3414田间试验统计分析方法)[C].2010.