“推—拉”理论视域下中国特大城市人口调控分析
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摘要
在经典城乡"推—拉"理论的基础上,引入城市之间的"推—拉"模型,对中国城市之间的人口流动机制进行分析。认为决定城市之间人口流动的关键因素是城市拉力和推力之间的"推拉差",只要特大城市"推拉差"值为正,人口向特大城市流动的现象仍旧会持续,在特大城市人口容纳量有限的前提下,政府调控是必要的。政府在人口调控政策制定时应该注重人口流动的内在规律,从人口流动的根源入手,在调控时一方面应该利用产业转移等措施来降低特大城市拉力,而非一味地通过行政手段提高推力;另一方面应该提高特大城市周边城市的拉力,以实现分流特大城市人口的目的。
Based on the urban-rural push and pull theory, this paper introduces the push-pull model between cities to analyze the mechanism of population flow among Chinese cities. It is believed that the key factor determining the population flow between cities is the push-pull difference. As long as the value of the push-pull difference between megacities is positive, the phenomenon of population flow to megacities will continue. Under the premise that the population capacity of megacities is limited, government regulation is necessary. The government should pay attention to the inherent laws of population flow when formulating population regulation policies. Starting from the fundamental causes of population flow, the government should, on the one hand, reduce the pull force of megacities through industrial transfer and other measures in the regulation, instead of blindly improving the push force through administrative means. On the other hand, the surrounding cities of megacities should be strengthened to achieve the goal of diverting the population of megacities.
Based on the urban-rural push and pull theory, this paper introduces the push-pull model between cities to analyze the mechanism of population flow among Chinese cities. It is believed that the key factor determining the population flow between cities is the push-pull difference. As long as the value of the push-pull difference between megacities is positive, the phenomenon of population flow to megacities will continue. Under the premise that the population capacity of megacities is limited, government regulation is necessary. The government should pay attention to the inherent laws of population flow when formulating population regulation policies. Starting from the fundamental causes of population flow, the government should, on the one hand, reduce the pull force of megacities through industrial transfer and other measures in the regulation, instead of blindly improving the push force through administrative means. On the other hand, the surrounding cities of megacities should be strengthened to achieve the goal of diverting the population of megacities.
引文
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[12]盛亦男,贾曼丽.我国特大城市外来人口调控政策的发展[J].人口与社会,2016,32(4):36-44.
[13]张强.城市功能疏解与大城市地区的疏散化[J].经济社会体制比较,2016(3):26-30.
[14] Lee E S. A theory of migration[J]. Demography, 1966, 3(1):47-57.
[15]徐胜兰.生计与发展——浅析农民工进城的“推力”[J].经济研究导刊,2018(3):45-46+74.
[16]Luo W, Tong Y, Cheung N W T. Rural-to-urban migration and adolescent delinquent behaviors:evidence from Hunan and Guangdong in China[J]. Eurasian Geography&Economics, 2018(4):1-21.
[17]刘厚莲.我国特大城市人口调控格局构建研究[J].学习与实践,2018(4):65-73.
[18] Li Q. An Analysis of Push and Pull Factors in the Migration of Rural Workers in China[J]. Social Sciences in China, 2003.
[19]盛广耀.制度变迁的关联性与户籍制度改革分析[J].经济学家,2017(4):59-66.
[2]黄文政.中国的大城市还不够大[EB/OL],2017-04-27.http://www.sohu.com/a/134475365_494879.
[3]财新网.蔡继明代表:大城市应放开人口规模限制[EB/OL],2017-03-03.http://topics.caixin.com/2017-03-03/101061666.html.
[4]陆铭.中国大城市的生与死[J].公关世界,2015(9):74-77.
[5]熊柴,邓茂,蔡继明.控总量还是调结构:论特大和超大城市的人口调控——以北京市为例[J].天津社会科学,2016(3):99-104.
[6]冯晓英.北京人口规模调控管见[J].前线,2005(11):54-55.
[7]吴燕青.新形势下的城市人口机械增长调控与户籍制度改革研究[D].华东师范大学,2007.
[8]黄荣清,段成荣,陆杰华,等.北京人口规模控制[J].人口与经济,2011(3):24-36.
[9]刘志.北京人口调控的战略要点[J].前线,2013(2):59-61.
[10]童玉芬.中国特大城市的人口调控:理论分析与思考[J].人口研究,2018,42(4):3-13.
[11]张强,周晓津.我国大城市人口规模估算与调控路径选择[J].西部论坛,2014,24(2):1-16.
[12]盛亦男,贾曼丽.我国特大城市外来人口调控政策的发展[J].人口与社会,2016,32(4):36-44.
[13]张强.城市功能疏解与大城市地区的疏散化[J].经济社会体制比较,2016(3):26-30.
[14] Lee E S. A theory of migration[J]. Demography, 1966, 3(1):47-57.
[15]徐胜兰.生计与发展——浅析农民工进城的“推力”[J].经济研究导刊,2018(3):45-46+74.
[16]Luo W, Tong Y, Cheung N W T. Rural-to-urban migration and adolescent delinquent behaviors:evidence from Hunan and Guangdong in China[J]. Eurasian Geography&Economics, 2018(4):1-21.
[17]刘厚莲.我国特大城市人口调控格局构建研究[J].学习与实践,2018(4):65-73.
[18] Li Q. An Analysis of Push and Pull Factors in the Migration of Rural Workers in China[J]. Social Sciences in China, 2003.
[19]盛广耀.制度变迁的关联性与户籍制度改革分析[J].经济学家,2017(4):59-66.