养老保险对劳动供给和退休决策的影响
|
摘要
本文使用三期中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,采用工具变量法等计量方法,分别考察了城镇企业职工养老保险和"新农保"对退休行为和劳动供给决策的影响。研究表明:城镇职工养老保险会激励职工提早退休,养老金财富每增加1%,职工预计停止工作年龄平均提早约1.2个月,需要照顾孙子女的职工倾向于提早退休,而参加城镇职工医疗保险会减弱这一引致退休效应;"新农保"对农民预计停止工作年龄产生微弱的负向影响,随着年龄的增加,养老保险的引致退休效应将减弱。同时,养老金财富的增加在一定程度上抑制农民无休止劳动的意愿;城镇职工养老保险制度对劳动供给产生的收入效应大于替代效应,它不仅会影响个体全职劳动时间,也会影响兼职的劳动时间;"新农保"对劳动供给的影响是非线性的。随着养老金给付水平的提高,自家农业活动的劳动时间呈现先逐步增加后降低的变化趋势,其他活动的劳动供给并未受到显著影响。实证研究结果表明,如果基本养老金增长率降低,则职工的预计停止工作年龄将推迟,这为中国适时推出渐进式延长退休年龄政策提供了经验依据。
China's society is experiencing accelerated aging due to increasing life expectancy. At the same time, the size of China's labor force is declining, which means that the pension insurance policy and retirement policy need to be adjusted accordingly.Due to the differentiation in China's social pension system and labor market segmentation into urban and rural, we need specific analyses for specific pension programs. China's public pension systems comprise mainly the Basic Old Age Insurance(BOAI)for employees in for-profit enterprises, the New Rural Pension Scheme(NRPS)in rural areas, the Urban Resident Pension Insurance(URPI), and the Public Employee Pension(PEP)for civil servants and employees in non-profit government institutions(in 2014, the combination of the NRPS and URPI began to establish a unified pension system for urban and rural residents). As the URPI is not employment related, and the PEP for government institution slacks corresponding data, we discuss only the first two types of social insurance system mentioned above. The traditional concepts of "raising children to provide against old age", intergenerational care, and medical insurance all affect the labor supply. This paper attempts to explore the links between these factors and pension insurance.We mainly study the impact of social pension insurance on both the labor supply and individual retirement decisions through pension wealth. Pension programs have two opposite effects on the labor supply, namely the negative incentive of the income effect and the positive incentive of the substitution effect. We examine whether the basic pension insurance system has the induced retirement effect, i.e., encouraging people to quit the labor market early. "Retirement" here refers to the cessation of work done for the purpose of earning money.Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(2011, 2013, 2015) and the instrumental variable method, this paper examines the effects of the NRPS and the Urban Employee Basic Pension Insurance on the labor supply and retirement decisions, respectively. The empirical analysis demonstrates the following.(1) The BOAI encourages workers to retire early. On average, workers plan to stop working about 0.10 years(about 1.2 months) in advance, with pension wealth increasing by 1%.Workers who need to take care of their grand children tend to retire early.However,participation in the urban workers' medical insurance weakens the induced retirement effects.(2) The NRPS has a weak negative impact on "retirement age":the older the farmer, the weaker the induced retirement effect. At the same time, the increased pension wealth restrains the willingness of peasants to work endlessly, although rural workers who adhere to the traditional concept of "nurturing children to provide against old age" are more inclined to extend their working life to reduce the burden of child support.(3) The income effect of the BOAI on the labor supply is greater than the substitution effect, which affects not only the full-time individual labor supply, but also the part-time labor supply.(4) With the augmentation of the pension, the working time for household agricultural activities will first gradually increase and then decrease. The improvement in pension benefits has no significant impact on the labor supply for other activities. Our study has certain critical policy implications. If the government reduces the urban employee's basic pension growth rate, workers will tend to postpone their expected retirement age, providing an empirical basis for the timely introduction of a progressively delayed retirement age policy in China.Our paper makes several important contributions to the ongoing research. First, it proves that China's social pension system has an induced retirement effect, and evaluates its size under different types of old age pension scheme. Second, using high quality national micro data, our study verifies the effect of the BOAI and NRPS on the labor supply from the perspective of pension wealth. Third, to alleviate endogeneity problems, we choose instrumental variables, such as the number of years away from the statutory retirement age and the difference between the pension received in the first year of retirement and the minimum basic pension standard, to effectively identify the causal relationship between pension wealth, the labor supply, and the retirement decision. Fourth, we discuss the impact of the pension plan on retirement behavior by treating the expected retirement age as the dependent variable to provide a new perspective. The conclusions drawn from this paper have important reference value for our government's implementation of its policy of gradually extending the retirement age.
China's society is experiencing accelerated aging due to increasing life expectancy. At the same time, the size of China's labor force is declining, which means that the pension insurance policy and retirement policy need to be adjusted accordingly.Due to the differentiation in China's social pension system and labor market segmentation into urban and rural, we need specific analyses for specific pension programs. China's public pension systems comprise mainly the Basic Old Age Insurance(BOAI)for employees in for-profit enterprises, the New Rural Pension Scheme(NRPS)in rural areas, the Urban Resident Pension Insurance(URPI), and the Public Employee Pension(PEP)for civil servants and employees in non-profit government institutions(in 2014, the combination of the NRPS and URPI began to establish a unified pension system for urban and rural residents). As the URPI is not employment related, and the PEP for government institution slacks corresponding data, we discuss only the first two types of social insurance system mentioned above. The traditional concepts of "raising children to provide against old age", intergenerational care, and medical insurance all affect the labor supply. This paper attempts to explore the links between these factors and pension insurance.We mainly study the impact of social pension insurance on both the labor supply and individual retirement decisions through pension wealth. Pension programs have two opposite effects on the labor supply, namely the negative incentive of the income effect and the positive incentive of the substitution effect. We examine whether the basic pension insurance system has the induced retirement effect, i.e., encouraging people to quit the labor market early. "Retirement" here refers to the cessation of work done for the purpose of earning money.Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(2011, 2013, 2015) and the instrumental variable method, this paper examines the effects of the NRPS and the Urban Employee Basic Pension Insurance on the labor supply and retirement decisions, respectively. The empirical analysis demonstrates the following.(1) The BOAI encourages workers to retire early. On average, workers plan to stop working about 0.10 years(about 1.2 months) in advance, with pension wealth increasing by 1%.Workers who need to take care of their grand children tend to retire early.However,participation in the urban workers' medical insurance weakens the induced retirement effects.(2) The NRPS has a weak negative impact on "retirement age":the older the farmer, the weaker the induced retirement effect. At the same time, the increased pension wealth restrains the willingness of peasants to work endlessly, although rural workers who adhere to the traditional concept of "nurturing children to provide against old age" are more inclined to extend their working life to reduce the burden of child support.(3) The income effect of the BOAI on the labor supply is greater than the substitution effect, which affects not only the full-time individual labor supply, but also the part-time labor supply.(4) With the augmentation of the pension, the working time for household agricultural activities will first gradually increase and then decrease. The improvement in pension benefits has no significant impact on the labor supply for other activities. Our study has certain critical policy implications. If the government reduces the urban employee's basic pension growth rate, workers will tend to postpone their expected retirement age, providing an empirical basis for the timely introduction of a progressively delayed retirement age policy in China.Our paper makes several important contributions to the ongoing research. First, it proves that China's social pension system has an induced retirement effect, and evaluates its size under different types of old age pension scheme. Second, using high quality national micro data, our study verifies the effect of the BOAI and NRPS on the labor supply from the perspective of pension wealth. Third, to alleviate endogeneity problems, we choose instrumental variables, such as the number of years away from the statutory retirement age and the difference between the pension received in the first year of retirement and the minimum basic pension standard, to effectively identify the causal relationship between pension wealth, the labor supply, and the retirement decision. Fourth, we discuss the impact of the pension plan on retirement behavior by treating the expected retirement age as the dependent variable to provide a new perspective. The conclusions drawn from this paper have important reference value for our government's implementation of its policy of gradually extending the retirement age.
引文
蔡昉(主编),2014:《中国人口与劳动问题报告No.15》,社会科学文献出版社。
程杰,2014:《养老保障的劳动供给效应》,《经济研究》第10期。
封进、胡岩,2008:《中国城镇劳动力提前退休行为的研究》,《中国人口科学》第4期。
廖少宏,2012:《提前退休模式与行为及其影响因素——基于中国综合社会调查数据的分析》,《中国人口科学》第3期。
李昂、申曙光,2017:《社会养老保险与退休年龄选择——基于CFPS2010的微观经验证据》,《经济理论与经济管理》第9期。
尼古拉斯·巴尔,2003:《福利国家经济学(中译本)》,中国劳动社会保障出版社。
彭浩然,2012:《基本养老保险制度对个人退休行为的激励程度研究》,《统计研究》第9期。
张川川,2014:《新型农村社会养老保险政策效果评估——收入、贫困、消费、主观福利和劳动供给》,《经济学(季刊)》第1期。
郑秉文,2017:《中国养老金精算报告(2018—2022)》,中国劳动社会保障出版社。
Aaron,H.J.,1982,Economic Effects of Social Security,The Brookings Institution.
Blake,D.,2004,“The Impact of Wealth on Consumption and Retirement Behaviour in the UK”,Applied Financial Economics,14(8),555—576.
Blau,D.M.,and R.Goodstein,2010,“Can Social Security Explain Trends in Labor Force Participation of Older Men in the United States?”,Journal of Human Resources,45,328—363.
Borsch-Supan,A.,2000,“Incentive Effects of Social Security on Labor Force Participation:Evidence in Germany and Across Europe”,Journal of Public Economics,78,25—49.
Boskin,M.J.,and M.D.Hurd,1978,“The Effect of Social Security on Early Retirement”,Journal of Public Economics,10,361—377.
Cerda,R.A.,2005,“Does Social Security Affect Retirement and Labor Supply?Evidence from Chile”,Developing Economies,43(2),235—64.
Crawford,V.P.,and D.M.Lilien,1981,“Social Security and the Retirement Decision”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,96,505—529.
Feldstein,M.,1974,“Social Security,Induced Retirement,and Aggregate Capital Accumulation”,Journal of Political Economy,82,905—926.
Giles,J.,D.Wang,and W.Cai,2011,“The Labor Supply and Retirement Behavior of China's Older Workers and Elderly in Comparative Perspective”,World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,5853,1—38.
Gruber,J.,and D.Wise,1998,“Social Security and Retirement:An International Comparison”,American Economic Review,88,158—163.
Gruber,J.,K.Milligan,and D.A.Wise,2009,“Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World:The Relationship to Youth Employment,Introduction and Summary”,Estuarine & Coastal Marine Science,5(6),829—830.
Hausman,J.A.,and D.A.Wise,1985,“Social Security,Health Status,and Retirement”,NBER Chapters in Pensions,Labor and Individual Choice,159—192.
Hochman,O.,and N.Lewinepstein,2013,“Determinants of Early Retirement Preferences in Europe:The Role of Grandparenthood”,International Journal of Comparative Sociology,54,29—47.
Krueger,A.B.,and J.Pischke,1992,“The Effect of Social Security on Labor Supply:A Cohort Analysis of the Notch Generation”,Journal of Labor Economics,10,412—437.
Mastrobuoni,G.,2009,“Labor Supply Effects of the Recent Social Security Benefit Cuts:Empirical Estimates Using Cohort Discontinuities”,Journal of Public Economics,93,1224—1233.
Meghir,C.,and E.Whitehouse,1997,“Labour Market Transitions and Retirement of Men in the UK”,Journal of Econometrics,79,327—354.
Nishiyama,S.,2010,“The Joint Labor Supply Decision of Married Couples and the Social Security Pension System”,Michigan Retirement Research Center Research Paper,No.2010—229.
Quinn,J.F.,1977,“Microeconomic Determinants of Early Retirement:A Cross-Sectional View of White Married Men”,Journal of Human Resources,12,329—346.
Ruhm,C.J.,1996,“Do Pensions Increase the Labor Supply of Older Men?”,Journal of Public Economics,59,157—175.
Rust,J.,and C.Phelan,1997,“How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior In a World of Incomplete Markets”,Econometrica,65(4),781—831.
Stock,J.H.,and D.A.Wise,1988,“The Pension Inducement to Retire:An Option Value Analysis”,NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research,No.2660.
Stock,J.H.,and D.A.Wise,1990,“Pensions,the Option Value of Work,and Retirement”,Econometrica,58,1151—1180.
Stock,J.H.,J.H.Wright,and M.Yogo,2002,“A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments”,Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,20,518—529.
Vere,J.P.,2011,“Social Security and Elderly Labor Supply:Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study”,Labour Economics,18,676—686.
Van,B.J.,and T.Winter,2013,“Becoming a Grandparent and Early Retirement in Europe”,European Sociological Review,29,1295—1308.
① 参见世界银行2018年12月13日发布的《中国养老服务的政策选择:建设高效可持续的中国养老服务体系》报告。
② 参见吴敬琏于2016年4月19日在上海交通大学所做的供给侧结构性改革演讲内容。
③ 数据来源:中华人民共和国人力资源和社会保障部动态统计数据。
(1)数据库显示,退休后继续工作的职工样本很少。
(2)假定养老金增长率、社会在岗职工平均月工资增长率、个人平均月工资增长率均固定不变。
(3)“退休”一词主要适用于受雇型工作,尤其是城镇单位职工,农村并没有严格意义的退休,这里的“退休”是指不再进行以挣钱为目的劳动。
(4)如果个体的健康状况至少不低于平均水平,当微观个体的预计停止工作年龄超过相应的平均预计寿命,我们也认为该样本具有无休止劳动意愿;参考联合国人口司发布的《世界人口展望(2016)》,就中国2015年的预期寿命而言,将男性和女性的预期寿命分别赋值为74岁、77岁。
(5)CHARLS数据库将工作分为自家农业生产活动、农业打工、受雇性非农活动以及从事个体和私营经济活动,分别公布了它们的年工作月数、周工作天数和天工作小时数,为了尽量充分利用所提供信息,我们计算出平均周工作小时(年工作月数×周工作天数×天工作小时数/52)。
(6)由于篇幅受限,这里不单独报告相应回归,若需要完整的估计结果,可向作者索要。
(7)参见金维刚在中国养老金融50人论坛首届峰会的讲话。
(8)郑功成指出,前十几年的养老金增长速度较高,主要是为了对低工资、低养老金的老一代退休工人的补偿。在经历数十多年的补偿性增长后,现在需要确立合理、可持续的待遇调整增长机制。参见中国青年报报道:《全国人大常委会委员郑功成:养老保险改革今年至关重要》,2017年03月14日,http://news.youth.cn/jsxw/201703/t20170314_9286600.htm。
程杰,2014:《养老保障的劳动供给效应》,《经济研究》第10期。
封进、胡岩,2008:《中国城镇劳动力提前退休行为的研究》,《中国人口科学》第4期。
廖少宏,2012:《提前退休模式与行为及其影响因素——基于中国综合社会调查数据的分析》,《中国人口科学》第3期。
李昂、申曙光,2017:《社会养老保险与退休年龄选择——基于CFPS2010的微观经验证据》,《经济理论与经济管理》第9期。
尼古拉斯·巴尔,2003:《福利国家经济学(中译本)》,中国劳动社会保障出版社。
彭浩然,2012:《基本养老保险制度对个人退休行为的激励程度研究》,《统计研究》第9期。
张川川,2014:《新型农村社会养老保险政策效果评估——收入、贫困、消费、主观福利和劳动供给》,《经济学(季刊)》第1期。
郑秉文,2017:《中国养老金精算报告(2018—2022)》,中国劳动社会保障出版社。
Aaron,H.J.,1982,Economic Effects of Social Security,The Brookings Institution.
Blake,D.,2004,“The Impact of Wealth on Consumption and Retirement Behaviour in the UK”,Applied Financial Economics,14(8),555—576.
Blau,D.M.,and R.Goodstein,2010,“Can Social Security Explain Trends in Labor Force Participation of Older Men in the United States?”,Journal of Human Resources,45,328—363.
Borsch-Supan,A.,2000,“Incentive Effects of Social Security on Labor Force Participation:Evidence in Germany and Across Europe”,Journal of Public Economics,78,25—49.
Boskin,M.J.,and M.D.Hurd,1978,“The Effect of Social Security on Early Retirement”,Journal of Public Economics,10,361—377.
Cerda,R.A.,2005,“Does Social Security Affect Retirement and Labor Supply?Evidence from Chile”,Developing Economies,43(2),235—64.
Crawford,V.P.,and D.M.Lilien,1981,“Social Security and the Retirement Decision”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,96,505—529.
Feldstein,M.,1974,“Social Security,Induced Retirement,and Aggregate Capital Accumulation”,Journal of Political Economy,82,905—926.
Giles,J.,D.Wang,and W.Cai,2011,“The Labor Supply and Retirement Behavior of China's Older Workers and Elderly in Comparative Perspective”,World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,5853,1—38.
Gruber,J.,and D.Wise,1998,“Social Security and Retirement:An International Comparison”,American Economic Review,88,158—163.
Gruber,J.,K.Milligan,and D.A.Wise,2009,“Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World:The Relationship to Youth Employment,Introduction and Summary”,Estuarine & Coastal Marine Science,5(6),829—830.
Hausman,J.A.,and D.A.Wise,1985,“Social Security,Health Status,and Retirement”,NBER Chapters in Pensions,Labor and Individual Choice,159—192.
Hochman,O.,and N.Lewinepstein,2013,“Determinants of Early Retirement Preferences in Europe:The Role of Grandparenthood”,International Journal of Comparative Sociology,54,29—47.
Krueger,A.B.,and J.Pischke,1992,“The Effect of Social Security on Labor Supply:A Cohort Analysis of the Notch Generation”,Journal of Labor Economics,10,412—437.
Mastrobuoni,G.,2009,“Labor Supply Effects of the Recent Social Security Benefit Cuts:Empirical Estimates Using Cohort Discontinuities”,Journal of Public Economics,93,1224—1233.
Meghir,C.,and E.Whitehouse,1997,“Labour Market Transitions and Retirement of Men in the UK”,Journal of Econometrics,79,327—354.
Nishiyama,S.,2010,“The Joint Labor Supply Decision of Married Couples and the Social Security Pension System”,Michigan Retirement Research Center Research Paper,No.2010—229.
Quinn,J.F.,1977,“Microeconomic Determinants of Early Retirement:A Cross-Sectional View of White Married Men”,Journal of Human Resources,12,329—346.
Ruhm,C.J.,1996,“Do Pensions Increase the Labor Supply of Older Men?”,Journal of Public Economics,59,157—175.
Rust,J.,and C.Phelan,1997,“How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior In a World of Incomplete Markets”,Econometrica,65(4),781—831.
Stock,J.H.,and D.A.Wise,1988,“The Pension Inducement to Retire:An Option Value Analysis”,NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research,No.2660.
Stock,J.H.,and D.A.Wise,1990,“Pensions,the Option Value of Work,and Retirement”,Econometrica,58,1151—1180.
Stock,J.H.,J.H.Wright,and M.Yogo,2002,“A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments”,Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,20,518—529.
Vere,J.P.,2011,“Social Security and Elderly Labor Supply:Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study”,Labour Economics,18,676—686.
Van,B.J.,and T.Winter,2013,“Becoming a Grandparent and Early Retirement in Europe”,European Sociological Review,29,1295—1308.
① 参见世界银行2018年12月13日发布的《中国养老服务的政策选择:建设高效可持续的中国养老服务体系》报告。
② 参见吴敬琏于2016年4月19日在上海交通大学所做的供给侧结构性改革演讲内容。
③ 数据来源:中华人民共和国人力资源和社会保障部动态统计数据。
(1)数据库显示,退休后继续工作的职工样本很少。
(2)假定养老金增长率、社会在岗职工平均月工资增长率、个人平均月工资增长率均固定不变。
(3)“退休”一词主要适用于受雇型工作,尤其是城镇单位职工,农村并没有严格意义的退休,这里的“退休”是指不再进行以挣钱为目的劳动。
(4)如果个体的健康状况至少不低于平均水平,当微观个体的预计停止工作年龄超过相应的平均预计寿命,我们也认为该样本具有无休止劳动意愿;参考联合国人口司发布的《世界人口展望(2016)》,就中国2015年的预期寿命而言,将男性和女性的预期寿命分别赋值为74岁、77岁。
(5)CHARLS数据库将工作分为自家农业生产活动、农业打工、受雇性非农活动以及从事个体和私营经济活动,分别公布了它们的年工作月数、周工作天数和天工作小时数,为了尽量充分利用所提供信息,我们计算出平均周工作小时(年工作月数×周工作天数×天工作小时数/52)。
(6)由于篇幅受限,这里不单独报告相应回归,若需要完整的估计结果,可向作者索要。
(7)参见金维刚在中国养老金融50人论坛首届峰会的讲话。
(8)郑功成指出,前十几年的养老金增长速度较高,主要是为了对低工资、低养老金的老一代退休工人的补偿。在经历数十多年的补偿性增长后,现在需要确立合理、可持续的待遇调整增长机制。参见中国青年报报道:《全国人大常委会委员郑功成:养老保险改革今年至关重要》,2017年03月14日,http://news.youth.cn/jsxw/201703/t20170314_9286600.htm。