人口老龄化对环境质量的影响机制研究
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摘要
基于生产渠道视角下的劳动生产率效应、产业结构优化效应、劳动技术替代效应和基于消费渠道视角下的消费需求递减效应、环保意识增强效应,就人口老龄化对环境质量的影响机制进行理论分析,并运用1990年~2012年的多国面板数据,通过中介效应检验模型对这五方面的效应进行逐一检验。结果表明:人口老龄化水平提高有助于环境质量改善,稳健性检验显示该结论稳健可靠;人口老龄化主要通过促进产业结构优化、实现劳动力技术替代、降低社会整体消费水平、增强居民环保意识和践行环保行为等路径促进环境质量改善,影响效应从大到小依次为产业结构优化、消费需求递减、环保意识增强和劳动技术替代。但人口老龄化也可能会导致劳动生产率下降,进而不利环境质量的改善。为此,中国应做好政策设计,充分发挥人口老龄化对环境质量的改善效应,促进环境质量优化,实现绿色发展。
This paper summarizes the theoretical mechanism of population aging causing the change of environmental quality from production channels,including labor productivity effect,industrial structure optimization effect,technological substitution,etc. It makes an empirical test on the mediator effect of aging on environmental quality using the cross-country panel data from 1990 to 2012. The results show that population aging can promote the improvement of environmental quality and the result has been accepted by the robustness test,proving the stability and reliability. Population aging promotes the improvement of environmental quality by promoting the upgrading of industrial structure,speeding up the progress of technological innovation,decreasing the total consumption level and increasing the environmental consciousness and action of inhabitant. And these effects from high to low include the upgrading effect of industrial structure,the decreasing effect of total consumption level,the decreasing effect of total consumption level and the speeding-up effect of technological innovation progress. However,population aging also has a negative effect on the improvement of environmental quality for it leads to low labor productivity. Therefore,Chinese government should design related policies to make full use of the improvement effect of aging on environmental quality to realize the optimization of environmental quality and green development.
This paper summarizes the theoretical mechanism of population aging causing the change of environmental quality from production channels,including labor productivity effect,industrial structure optimization effect,technological substitution,etc. It makes an empirical test on the mediator effect of aging on environmental quality using the cross-country panel data from 1990 to 2012. The results show that population aging can promote the improvement of environmental quality and the result has been accepted by the robustness test,proving the stability and reliability. Population aging promotes the improvement of environmental quality by promoting the upgrading of industrial structure,speeding up the progress of technological innovation,decreasing the total consumption level and increasing the environmental consciousness and action of inhabitant. And these effects from high to low include the upgrading effect of industrial structure,the decreasing effect of total consumption level,the decreasing effect of total consumption level and the speeding-up effect of technological innovation progress. However,population aging also has a negative effect on the improvement of environmental quality for it leads to low labor productivity. Therefore,Chinese government should design related policies to make full use of the improvement effect of aging on environmental quality to realize the optimization of environmental quality and green development.
引文
[1]郭晗,任保平.人口红利变化与中国经济发展方式转变[J].当代财经,2014(3):5-13.
[2]ONO T,MAEDA Y.Is aging harmful to the environment?[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2001,20(2):113-127.
[3]ONO T.The political economy of environmental taxes with an aging population[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2005,30(2):165-194.
[4]BRUCE E TONN,GREG WAIDLEY,CARL PETRICH.The ageing US population and environmental policy[J].Journal of Environmental Planning and Management,2001,44(6):851-876.
[5]KAHN M E.Demographic change and the demand for environmental regulation[J].Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,2002,21(1):46-62.
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[7]MENZ T.Population aging and environmental preferences in OECD countries:the case of air pollution[J].Ecological Economics,2010,69(12):2582-2589.
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[9]BUEHN A,FARZANEGAN M R.Hold your breath:a new index of air pollution[J].Energy Economics,2013,37(1):104-113.
[10]李斌,李拓.中国空气污染库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究---基于动态面板系统GMM与门限模型检验[J].经济问题,2014(4):17-22.
[11]FOUGRE M,MRETTE M.Population ageing and economic growth in seven OECD countries[J].Economic Modelling,1999,16(3):411-427.
[12]SCARTH W.Population aging,productivity,and growth in living standards[D].Mc Master University,2003.
[13]汪伟,刘玉飞,彭冬冬.人口老龄化的产业结构升级效应研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(11):47-61.
[14]陈卫民,施美程.发达国家人口老龄化过程中的产业结构转变[J].南开学报:哲学社会科学版,2013(6):32-41.
[15]王世巍.城市人口均衡发展研究[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2008.
[16]SATTERTHWAITE D.The implications of population growth and urbanization for climate change[J].Environment and Urbanization,2009,21(2):545-567.
[17]万克德,宋廷山,郭思亮.山东省人口老龄化对城镇居民消费需求的影响---基于六普数据的分析[J].中国人口科学,2013(4):82-88.
[18]于潇,孙猛.中国人口老龄化对消费的影响研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2012(1):141-147.
[19]WEBER C,PERRELS A.Modelling lifestyle effects on energy demand and related emissions[J].Energy Policy,2000,28(8):549-566.
[20]DALTON M,O'NEILL B,PRSKAWETZ A,et al.Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States[J].Energy Economics,2008,30(2):642-675.
[21]穆怀中,范洪敏.城镇化扩张与居民空气污染治理支付意愿[J].国家行政学院学报,2014(6):81-85.
[22]MENZ T,WELSCH H.Population aging and environmental preferences in OECD countries:the case of air pollution[J].Ecological Economics,2010,69(12):2582-2589.
[23]O'NEILL B C,CHEN B S.Demographic determinants of household energy use in the United States[J].Population and Development Review,2002,28:53-88.
[24]KRONENBERG T.The impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany[J].Ecological Economics,2009,68(10):2637-2645.
[25]PARIKH J,SHUKLA V.Urbanization,energy use and greenhouse effects in economic development:results from a cross-national study of developing countries[J].Global Environmental Change,1995,5(2):87-103.
[26]YORK R.Demographic trends and energy consumption in European Union Nations,1960-2025[J].Social Science Research,2007,36(3):855-872.
[27]PRUD'HOMME R.On the economic role of cities[C]∥OECD.Conference on cities and the new global economy.Melbourne,Australia.1994:20-23.
[28]HAYES A F.Beyond Baron and Kenny:statistical mediation analysis in the new millennium[J].Communication Monographs,2009,76(4):408-420.
[29]李茜,宋金平,张建辉,等.中国城市化对环境空气质量影响的演化规律研究[J].环境科学学报,2013(9):2402-2411.
[30]国家统计局.中华人民共和国2015年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2016-02-29)[2016-12-10].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201602/t20160229_1323991.html.
[31]YANG G,WANG Y,ZENG Y,et al.Rapid health transition in China,1990-2010:findings from the global burden of disease study2010[J].The Lancet,2013,381(9882):1987-2015.
[32]穆泉,张世秋.2013年1月中国大面积雾霾事件直接社会经济损失评估[J].中国环境科学,2013(11):2087-2094.
[33]BOVENBERG A L,SMULDERS S.Environmental quality and pollution-augmenting technological change in a two-sector endogenous growth model[J].Journal of Public Economics,1995,57(3):369-391.
(1)根据世界著名人口学家Pichat于1957年撰写的《人口老龄化及其社会经济后果》一书所划定的标准,当65岁及以上人口占总人口的比重超过7%时,便认为这个国家已进入人口老龄化社会。
(1)此处专利申请数量包括居民和非居民的专利申请数量。
(1)数据来源于世界银行数据库;2011年样本发达国家可吸入颗粒物浓度仅为27微克/立方米。
[2]ONO T,MAEDA Y.Is aging harmful to the environment?[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2001,20(2):113-127.
[3]ONO T.The political economy of environmental taxes with an aging population[J].Environmental and Resource Economics,2005,30(2):165-194.
[4]BRUCE E TONN,GREG WAIDLEY,CARL PETRICH.The ageing US population and environmental policy[J].Journal of Environmental Planning and Management,2001,44(6):851-876.
[5]KAHN M E.Demographic change and the demand for environmental regulation[J].Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,2002,21(1):46-62.
[6]LUECHINGER S.Life satisfaction and transboundary air pollution[J].Economics Letters,2010,107(1):4-6.
[7]MENZ T.Population aging and environmental preferences in OECD countries:the case of air pollution[J].Ecological Economics,2010,69(12):2582-2589.
[8]COLE M A,NEUMAYER E.Examining the impact of demographic factors on air pollution[J].Population and Environment,2004,26(1):5-21.
[9]BUEHN A,FARZANEGAN M R.Hold your breath:a new index of air pollution[J].Energy Economics,2013,37(1):104-113.
[10]李斌,李拓.中国空气污染库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究---基于动态面板系统GMM与门限模型检验[J].经济问题,2014(4):17-22.
[11]FOUGRE M,MRETTE M.Population ageing and economic growth in seven OECD countries[J].Economic Modelling,1999,16(3):411-427.
[12]SCARTH W.Population aging,productivity,and growth in living standards[D].Mc Master University,2003.
[13]汪伟,刘玉飞,彭冬冬.人口老龄化的产业结构升级效应研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(11):47-61.
[14]陈卫民,施美程.发达国家人口老龄化过程中的产业结构转变[J].南开学报:哲学社会科学版,2013(6):32-41.
[15]王世巍.城市人口均衡发展研究[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2008.
[16]SATTERTHWAITE D.The implications of population growth and urbanization for climate change[J].Environment and Urbanization,2009,21(2):545-567.
[17]万克德,宋廷山,郭思亮.山东省人口老龄化对城镇居民消费需求的影响---基于六普数据的分析[J].中国人口科学,2013(4):82-88.
[18]于潇,孙猛.中国人口老龄化对消费的影响研究[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2012(1):141-147.
[19]WEBER C,PERRELS A.Modelling lifestyle effects on energy demand and related emissions[J].Energy Policy,2000,28(8):549-566.
[20]DALTON M,O'NEILL B,PRSKAWETZ A,et al.Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States[J].Energy Economics,2008,30(2):642-675.
[21]穆怀中,范洪敏.城镇化扩张与居民空气污染治理支付意愿[J].国家行政学院学报,2014(6):81-85.
[22]MENZ T,WELSCH H.Population aging and environmental preferences in OECD countries:the case of air pollution[J].Ecological Economics,2010,69(12):2582-2589.
[23]O'NEILL B C,CHEN B S.Demographic determinants of household energy use in the United States[J].Population and Development Review,2002,28:53-88.
[24]KRONENBERG T.The impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany[J].Ecological Economics,2009,68(10):2637-2645.
[25]PARIKH J,SHUKLA V.Urbanization,energy use and greenhouse effects in economic development:results from a cross-national study of developing countries[J].Global Environmental Change,1995,5(2):87-103.
[26]YORK R.Demographic trends and energy consumption in European Union Nations,1960-2025[J].Social Science Research,2007,36(3):855-872.
[27]PRUD'HOMME R.On the economic role of cities[C]∥OECD.Conference on cities and the new global economy.Melbourne,Australia.1994:20-23.
[28]HAYES A F.Beyond Baron and Kenny:statistical mediation analysis in the new millennium[J].Communication Monographs,2009,76(4):408-420.
[29]李茜,宋金平,张建辉,等.中国城市化对环境空气质量影响的演化规律研究[J].环境科学学报,2013(9):2402-2411.
[30]国家统计局.中华人民共和国2015年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2016-02-29)[2016-12-10].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201602/t20160229_1323991.html.
[31]YANG G,WANG Y,ZENG Y,et al.Rapid health transition in China,1990-2010:findings from the global burden of disease study2010[J].The Lancet,2013,381(9882):1987-2015.
[32]穆泉,张世秋.2013年1月中国大面积雾霾事件直接社会经济损失评估[J].中国环境科学,2013(11):2087-2094.
[33]BOVENBERG A L,SMULDERS S.Environmental quality and pollution-augmenting technological change in a two-sector endogenous growth model[J].Journal of Public Economics,1995,57(3):369-391.
(1)根据世界著名人口学家Pichat于1957年撰写的《人口老龄化及其社会经济后果》一书所划定的标准,当65岁及以上人口占总人口的比重超过7%时,便认为这个国家已进入人口老龄化社会。
(1)此处专利申请数量包括居民和非居民的专利申请数量。
(1)数据来源于世界银行数据库;2011年样本发达国家可吸入颗粒物浓度仅为27微克/立方米。