供给侧结构性改革下中国碳排放量潜在增长率估算
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摘要
采用生产函数法,将消费、投资和净出口等产生的碳排放量纳入到碳排放总量增长框架中,借助年度省级面板数据对2000—2016年各要素碳排放产出弹性进行计算,估算我国潜在碳排放量增长率,并预测分省潜在碳排放量。结果表明:我国碳排放量增长仍是投资驱动型和工业增长型;从供给侧角度看,潜在碳排放量增长率的下降,主要源于投资结构向好,净出口向中高端延伸所引致。但需求侧管理所产生的消费领域碳排放量的增长一定程度上抵消了投资和净出口碳排放量的减少;根据预测结果,经济在三种发展情境下(基准、乐观、悲观),碳排量变化差异都不大;分省预测结果可知,不同区域潜在碳减排率仍存较大差异。并据此提出政策建议。
The paper adopts the production functions. And the carbon emissions such as consumption,total investment,and net exports are included in the total growth framework of the carbon emission. Then it calculates the elements output elasticity of carbon emission based on the annual provincial panel data from 2000 to 2016. Further,it estimates the potential growth rate on the carbon emissions of China,and forecasts the potential carbon emissions among provinces. The research shows that the growth of carbon emissions in China is still driven by the huge investment and the industrial development. From the perspective of the supply side,the decline in the growth rate of potential carbon emissions is mainly due to the better investment structure and the net exports moving towards the medium to high end. However,the increase in carbon emissions from the consumer sector generated by the demand side has partially offset the decrease in carbon emissions from the investment and net export. According to the forecast results,the carbon emissions have little differences under the three economic development scenarios( benchmark,optimism and pessimism) in China. According to the provincial forecastresults,there is still a big difference in the potential reduction rates on the carbon emission in different regions. Accordingly,we propose the countermeasures and suggestions.
The paper adopts the production functions. And the carbon emissions such as consumption,total investment,and net exports are included in the total growth framework of the carbon emission. Then it calculates the elements output elasticity of carbon emission based on the annual provincial panel data from 2000 to 2016. Further,it estimates the potential growth rate on the carbon emissions of China,and forecasts the potential carbon emissions among provinces. The research shows that the growth of carbon emissions in China is still driven by the huge investment and the industrial development. From the perspective of the supply side,the decline in the growth rate of potential carbon emissions is mainly due to the better investment structure and the net exports moving towards the medium to high end. However,the increase in carbon emissions from the consumer sector generated by the demand side has partially offset the decrease in carbon emissions from the investment and net export. According to the forecast results,the carbon emissions have little differences under the three economic development scenarios( benchmark,optimism and pessimism) in China. According to the provincial forecastresults,there is still a big difference in the potential reduction rates on the carbon emission in different regions. Accordingly,we propose the countermeasures and suggestions.
引文
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[2]刘华军,闫庆悦.贸易开放、FDI与中国CO2排放[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2011(3):21-35.
[3]林伯强,刘希颖.中国城市化阶段的碳排放:影响因素和减排策略[J].经济研究,2010(8):66-78.
[4]武红,谷树忠,关兴良,等.中国化石能源消费碳排放与经济增长关系研究[J].自然资源学报,2013(3):381-390.
[5]王娟,张克中.中国省域碳排放趋同与经济增长[J].经济管理,2014(6):34-43.
[6]邵帅,张曦,赵兴荣.中国制造业碳排放的经验分解与达峰路径-广义迪氏指数分解和动态情景分析[J].中国工业经济,2017(3):44-63.
[7]姜克隽,胡秀莲,庄幸,等.中国2050年低碳情景和低碳发展之路[J].中外能源,2009,14(6):1-7.
[8]刘朝,赵涛.中国低碳经济影响因素分析与情景预测[J].资源科学,2011,33(5):844-850.
[9]滕欣,李健,刘广为.中国碳排放预测与影响因素分析[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2012,14(5):11-18.
[10]代如锋,丑洁明,董文杰,等.中国碳排放的历史特征及未来趋势预测分析[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,53(1):80-86.
[11]吴敬琏.供给侧改革[M].北京:中国文史出版社,2016.
[12]张连城,韩蓓.中国潜在经济增长率分析-HP滤波平滑参数的选择及应用[J].经济与管理研究,2009(3):22-28.
[13]程豪.碳排放怎么算-《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》[J].中国统计,2014(11):28-30.
[14]牛海霞,胡佳雨. FDI与我国二氧化碳排放相关性实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2011(5):100-109.
[15]郭晗,任保平.结构变动、要素产出弹性与中国潜在经济增长率[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(12):72-84.
[16]郭豫媚,陈彦斌.中国潜在经济增长率的估算及其政策含义:1979—2020[J].经济学动态,2015(2):12-18.
[17]王丽娜,肖冬荣.基于ARMA模型的经济非平稳时间序列的预测分析[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2004,28(1):133-136.
[18]李天柱,刘小琴,李潇潇.对当前“制造业服务化”研究的若干理论辨析[J].中国科技论坛,2018(6):75-82.