基于动态概率潮流的输电网断线风险评估
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摘要
传统基于潮流的输电网断线风险评估研究无法考虑到负荷、风电出力等不确定因素的随机变化。因此,将动态概率潮流应用于输电网断线风险评估。首先建立输电网中负荷及风电出力的动态概率模型;其次,运用动态概率潮流计算系统中线路发生断线故障时其他未故障支路功率过载及节点电压越限概率;然后结合线路潮流介数和节点潮流介数,给出断线后果严重度指标;最后将输电网断线故障的概率与后果严重度指标结合,提出一种基于动态概率潮流的输电网断线风险评估方法。仿真结果表明,输电网断线风险评估结果科学、合理,能为输电网规划运行提供全面可靠的理论支撑。
The random variation of load and wind power output is not considered in the conventional power flow-based line-breakage risk assessment methods. The dynamic probability power flow is thus applied in the assessment of line-breakage risk in transmission network. Firstly, the dynamic probability model of load and wind power output is established. Secondly, the overload probability and the node voltage violation probability of non-fault branch lines are calculated using the dynamic probability power flow when linebreakage occurs in the power network. And then, the sequence severity indices are obtained based on power betweenness of lines and nodes. Finally, by combining the probability of line-breakage with the sequence severity indices, the dynamic probability power flow-based assessment method is proposed on the line-breakage risk in transmission network. Simulation results show that the proposed line-breakage risk assessment method is scientific and rationale, and can provide an important theoretical basis for operation planning of transmission network.
The random variation of load and wind power output is not considered in the conventional power flow-based line-breakage risk assessment methods. The dynamic probability power flow is thus applied in the assessment of line-breakage risk in transmission network. Firstly, the dynamic probability model of load and wind power output is established. Secondly, the overload probability and the node voltage violation probability of non-fault branch lines are calculated using the dynamic probability power flow when linebreakage occurs in the power network. And then, the sequence severity indices are obtained based on power betweenness of lines and nodes. Finally, by combining the probability of line-breakage with the sequence severity indices, the dynamic probability power flow-based assessment method is proposed on the line-breakage risk in transmission network. Simulation results show that the proposed line-breakage risk assessment method is scientific and rationale, and can provide an important theoretical basis for operation planning of transmission network.
引文
[1]路攀,李雪,王春亮.负荷相关的风电并网系统线路过载风险控制[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2015, 27(11):16-20.LU Pan, LI Xue, WANG Chunliang. Risk control of transmission line overload for wind power intercon-nected grid with correlated load[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA, 2015, 27(11):16-20.
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[4]许晓艳,黄越辉,刘纯,等.分布式光伏发电对配电网电压的影响及电压越限的解决方案[J].电网技术,2014, 38(8):2213-2219.XU Xiaoyan, HUANG Yuehui, LIU Chun, et al. Influence of distributed photovoltaic generation on voltage in distribution network and solution of voltage beyond limits[J]. Power System Technology,2014,38(8):2213-2219.
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[10]郑婧媛.基于证据理论和效用理论的电力系统暂态风险评估[D].北京:华北电力大学,2009.
[11]郭小敏,黄俊,杨健维,等.潮流介数理论在输电网断线风险评估中的应用[J].电网技术,2015, 39(2):486-493.GUO Xiaomin, HUANG Jun, YANG Jianwei, et al. Application of power betweenness theory in assessment on line-breakage risk in transmission network[J]. Power System Technology, 2015, 39(2):486-493.
[12]郭小敏,杨健维,何正友.V2G模式下城市电网电压质量概率评估方法[J].电网技术,2015, 39(10):2986-2992.GUO Xiaomin, YANG Jianwei, HE Zhengyou. Probabilistic evaluation method of voltage quality for uerban power network consirdering vehicle to grid[J]. Power System Technology, 2015,39(10):2986-2992.
[13]王晓茹,高仕斌.电力系统分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2011:49-55.
[14]董雷,杨以涵,张传成,等.综合考虑网络结构不确定性的概率潮流计算方法[J].电工技术学报,2012, 27(1):210-216.DONG Lei, YANG Yihan, ZHANG Chuanchen, et al. Probabilistic load flow considering network configuration uncertainties[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2012, 27(1):210-216.
[15]刘怡芳,张步涵,李俊芳,等.考虑电网静态安全风险的随机潮流计算[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(1):59-64.LIU Yifang, ZHANG Buhan, LI Junfan, et al. Probabilistic load flow algorithm considering static security risk of the power system[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2011,31(1):59-64.
[16]刘文颖,梁才,徐鹏,等.基于潮流介数的电力系统关键线路辨识[J].中国电机工程学报,2013, 33(31):90-98.LIU Wenying, LIANG Cai, XU Peng, et al. Identification of critical line in power systems based on flow betweenness[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE,2013, 33(31):90-98.
[17]郭小敏.基于动态概率潮流的输配电网安全风险和电能质量评估方法[D].成都:西南交通大学,2016.
[18]陈春,汪讽,刘蓓,等.一种智能配电网安全运行控制方法[J].电工技术学报,2015, 30(12):357-366.CHEN Chun, WANG Feng, LIU Bei, et al. A method of safe operation control of smart distribution system[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2015, 30(12):357-366.
[19]李清然,张建成.含分布式光伏电源的配电网电压越限解决方案[J].电力系统自动化,2015, 39(22):117-123.LI Qingran, ZHANG Jiancheng. Solutions of voltage beyond limits in distribution network with distributed photovoltaic generators[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2015, 39(22):117-123.
[20]蔡永翔,张璐,唐巍,等.考虑逆变器无功充裕性的含高比例户用光伏低压配电网电压控制策略[J].电网技术,2017, 41(9):2799-2808.CAI Yongxiang, ZHANG Lu, TANG Wei, et al. A voltage control strategy for LV distribution network with high proportion residential PVs considering reactive power adequacy of PV inverters[J]. Power System Technology, 2017, 41(9):2799-2808.
[21]张勇军,林建熙,杨银国.电力系统无功电压调控配合研究综述[J].电网技术,2012, 36(3):101-107.ZHANG Yongjun, LIN Jianxi, YANG Yinguo. Survey on voltage/var control and coordination of power systems[J]. Power System Technology, 2012, 36(3):101-107.
[22]黄伟,高怡芳,张勇军,等.计及不确定性的分布式光伏接入配电网极限容量评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018, 46(14):9-16.HUANG Wei, GAO Yifang, ZHANG Yongjun, et al. Evaluation of ultimate capacity for distributed photovoltaic access distribution network considering uncertainty[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2018, 46(14):9-16.
[2]陈为化,江全元,曹一家.基于神经网络集成的电力系统低电压风险评估[J].电网技术,2006, 30(17):14-18.CHEN Weihua, JIANG Quanyuan, CAO Yijia. Low voltage risk assessment in power system based on neural network ensemble[J].Power System Technology,2006, 30(17):14-18.
[3]王湘,杨健维,何正友.一种V2G模式下计及开断概率和负荷转移概率的配电网可靠性评估算法[J].电网技术,2014, 38(8):2213-2219.WANG Xiang, YANG Jianwei,HE Zhengyou. A reliability evaluation algorithm for distribution network under V2G mode considering probabilities of breaking and load transfer[J]. Power System Technology, 2014, 38(8):2213-2219.
[4]许晓艳,黄越辉,刘纯,等.分布式光伏发电对配电网电压的影响及电压越限的解决方案[J].电网技术,2014, 38(8):2213-2219.XU Xiaoyan, HUANG Yuehui, LIU Chun, et al. Influence of distributed photovoltaic generation on voltage in distribution network and solution of voltage beyond limits[J]. Power System Technology,2014,38(8):2213-2219.
[5]陈为化.基于风险的电力系统静态安全分析与预防控制[D].杭州:浙江大学,2007.
[6]陈庆前.电力系统安全风险评估与应急体系研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2012.
[7]于晗.基于概率的含风电场电网的输电系统规划方法研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2009.
[8]张喆,李庚银,魏军强.考虑分布式电源随机特性的配电网电压质量概率评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2013, 33(13):150-156.ZHANG Zhe, LI Gengyin, WEI Junqiang. Probabilistic evaluation ofvoltage quality in distribution networks considering the stochastic of distributed generators[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2013, 33(13):150-156.
[9]王成山,郑海峰,谢莹华,等.计及分布式发电的配电系统随机潮流计算[J].电力系统自动化,2005, 29(24):39-44.WANG Chengshan,ZHENG Haifeng, XIE Yinghua, et al.Probabilistic power flow containing distributed generation in distribution system[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2005,29(24):39-44.
[10]郑婧媛.基于证据理论和效用理论的电力系统暂态风险评估[D].北京:华北电力大学,2009.
[11]郭小敏,黄俊,杨健维,等.潮流介数理论在输电网断线风险评估中的应用[J].电网技术,2015, 39(2):486-493.GUO Xiaomin, HUANG Jun, YANG Jianwei, et al. Application of power betweenness theory in assessment on line-breakage risk in transmission network[J]. Power System Technology, 2015, 39(2):486-493.
[12]郭小敏,杨健维,何正友.V2G模式下城市电网电压质量概率评估方法[J].电网技术,2015, 39(10):2986-2992.GUO Xiaomin, YANG Jianwei, HE Zhengyou. Probabilistic evaluation method of voltage quality for uerban power network consirdering vehicle to grid[J]. Power System Technology, 2015,39(10):2986-2992.
[13]王晓茹,高仕斌.电力系统分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2011:49-55.
[14]董雷,杨以涵,张传成,等.综合考虑网络结构不确定性的概率潮流计算方法[J].电工技术学报,2012, 27(1):210-216.DONG Lei, YANG Yihan, ZHANG Chuanchen, et al. Probabilistic load flow considering network configuration uncertainties[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2012, 27(1):210-216.
[15]刘怡芳,张步涵,李俊芳,等.考虑电网静态安全风险的随机潮流计算[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(1):59-64.LIU Yifang, ZHANG Buhan, LI Junfan, et al. Probabilistic load flow algorithm considering static security risk of the power system[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2011,31(1):59-64.
[16]刘文颖,梁才,徐鹏,等.基于潮流介数的电力系统关键线路辨识[J].中国电机工程学报,2013, 33(31):90-98.LIU Wenying, LIANG Cai, XU Peng, et al. Identification of critical line in power systems based on flow betweenness[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE,2013, 33(31):90-98.
[17]郭小敏.基于动态概率潮流的输配电网安全风险和电能质量评估方法[D].成都:西南交通大学,2016.
[18]陈春,汪讽,刘蓓,等.一种智能配电网安全运行控制方法[J].电工技术学报,2015, 30(12):357-366.CHEN Chun, WANG Feng, LIU Bei, et al. A method of safe operation control of smart distribution system[J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2015, 30(12):357-366.
[19]李清然,张建成.含分布式光伏电源的配电网电压越限解决方案[J].电力系统自动化,2015, 39(22):117-123.LI Qingran, ZHANG Jiancheng. Solutions of voltage beyond limits in distribution network with distributed photovoltaic generators[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2015, 39(22):117-123.
[20]蔡永翔,张璐,唐巍,等.考虑逆变器无功充裕性的含高比例户用光伏低压配电网电压控制策略[J].电网技术,2017, 41(9):2799-2808.CAI Yongxiang, ZHANG Lu, TANG Wei, et al. A voltage control strategy for LV distribution network with high proportion residential PVs considering reactive power adequacy of PV inverters[J]. Power System Technology, 2017, 41(9):2799-2808.
[21]张勇军,林建熙,杨银国.电力系统无功电压调控配合研究综述[J].电网技术,2012, 36(3):101-107.ZHANG Yongjun, LIN Jianxi, YANG Yinguo. Survey on voltage/var control and coordination of power systems[J]. Power System Technology, 2012, 36(3):101-107.
[22]黄伟,高怡芳,张勇军,等.计及不确定性的分布式光伏接入配电网极限容量评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018, 46(14):9-16.HUANG Wei, GAO Yifang, ZHANG Yongjun, et al. Evaluation of ultimate capacity for distributed photovoltaic access distribution network considering uncertainty[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2018, 46(14):9-16.