基于GWR的中国城市用地扩张驱动力差异性研究
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摘要
在对中国城市用地扩张机制进行深入分析的基础上,采用地理加权回归模型(Geographic Weighted Regression Model)对我国286个地级市2000、2005、2010、2014年城市经济发展水平、道路交通发展水平和城市人口数量对城市用地扩张的影响进行测度,得到以下主要结论:(1)城市经济发展水平、城市人口数量和城市道路交通建设对我国城市空间扩张都起到了正向的影响,其中道路交通对于城市用地扩张的影响最为显著,经济发展水平影响最弱.(2)城市经济发展水平对城市用地扩张驱动逐渐减缓,人口数量对城市用地扩张驱动逐渐增加,道路交通发展水平对于城市用地扩张驱动先增加后减少.(3)经济发展、人口数量和道路交通水平对于城市用地扩张驱动的影响,随着地区、城市规模、城市级别的不同而有所差异.结合分析结果,对城市发展提出了可行性建议.
Urban land expansion is an important part of urbanization process in our country,which is the combined effect of the results of regional urbanization,economic development,urban population size,intensive land use,infrastructure,market mechanism,related policies and technological progress.The rapid expansion of urban land provides support for the rapid economic development and the social needs of urban residents.However,it is noteworthy that this has brought about the corresponding socio-economic and ecological problems and exacerbated the occurrence of urban diseases such as traffic congestion,deteriorating environment and housing shortage.Study on China's urban land expansion mechanism is an important way to solve China's urban construction land expansion rate significantly higher than the urban population growth rate.Based on the theoretical framework of the relationship among economic development,population growth,road traffic development and urban land expansion,this paper studied the differences in the driving force of urban land expansion in different areas,different city-size and different city-level in China.This paper aims to explore the mechanism of urban land expansion in China and put forward feasible suggestions for the sustainable development of Chinese cities land use.The GWR model(geographic weighting regression)was adopted to test the impact of urban economic development level,road traffic development level and urban population on urban land expansion in 286 prefecture-level cities in 2000,2005,2010 and 2014.The main results are as follows:(1) The level of urban economic development,urban population and road traffic development level had a positive impact on urban space expansion in China,of which road traffic had the most significant impact on urban land expansion and the economic development level affected the urban land expansion the least.(2)The impact of urban economic development level on urban land expansion showed a downward trend,and the driving force of urban population had gradually increased.The impact of road traffic development level on urbanland expansion first increased and then decreased.(3)Great differences can be found that the impact of economic development level,population size and road traffic development level on urban land expansion in different areas,different city-size and different city-level.Based on the analysis results,this paper put forward feasible suggestions to urban development according to regional urban land expansion characteristics.
Urban land expansion is an important part of urbanization process in our country,which is the combined effect of the results of regional urbanization,economic development,urban population size,intensive land use,infrastructure,market mechanism,related policies and technological progress.The rapid expansion of urban land provides support for the rapid economic development and the social needs of urban residents.However,it is noteworthy that this has brought about the corresponding socio-economic and ecological problems and exacerbated the occurrence of urban diseases such as traffic congestion,deteriorating environment and housing shortage.Study on China's urban land expansion mechanism is an important way to solve China's urban construction land expansion rate significantly higher than the urban population growth rate.Based on the theoretical framework of the relationship among economic development,population growth,road traffic development and urban land expansion,this paper studied the differences in the driving force of urban land expansion in different areas,different city-size and different city-level in China.This paper aims to explore the mechanism of urban land expansion in China and put forward feasible suggestions for the sustainable development of Chinese cities land use.The GWR model(geographic weighting regression)was adopted to test the impact of urban economic development level,road traffic development level and urban population on urban land expansion in 286 prefecture-level cities in 2000,2005,2010 and 2014.The main results are as follows:(1) The level of urban economic development,urban population and road traffic development level had a positive impact on urban space expansion in China,of which road traffic had the most significant impact on urban land expansion and the economic development level affected the urban land expansion the least.(2)The impact of urban economic development level on urban land expansion showed a downward trend,and the driving force of urban population had gradually increased.The impact of road traffic development level on urbanland expansion first increased and then decreased.(3)Great differences can be found that the impact of economic development level,population size and road traffic development level on urban land expansion in different areas,different city-size and different city-level.Based on the analysis results,this paper put forward feasible suggestions to urban development according to regional urban land expansion characteristics.
引文
[1]杨东峰,王静文,殷成志.我国大城市空间增长基本动力的实证研究——经济发展、人口增长与道路交通[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(5):74-78.YANG D F,WANG J W,YIN C Z.Drives of urban spatial growth in metropolitan regions of China:Economic development,population growth and transportation network[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2008,18(5):74-78.
[2]高金龙,陈江龙,苏曦.中国城市扩张态势与驱动机理研究学派综述[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(5):743-754.GAO J L,CHEN J L,SU X.Urban expansion and its driving mechanism in China:From three main shools'perspectives[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(5):743-754.
[3]黄大全,金浩然,赵星烁.四类城市建设用地扩张影响因素研究——以北京市昌平区为例[J].资源科学,2014,36(3):454-462.HUANG D Q,JIN H R,ZHAO X S.Determinants of land conversion to urban uses in Changping district,Beijing[J].Resources Science,2014,36(3):454-462.
[4]白忠菊,藏波,杨庆媛.基于脱钩理论的城市扩张速度与经济发展的时空耦合研究——以重庆市为例[J].经济地理,2013,33(8):52-60.BAI Z J,CANG B,YANG Q Y.On the degrees of decoupling and re-coupling of spatial and temporal evaluation of urban expansion speed and economic development from 2000to 2010:A case study of Chongqing city[J].Economic Geography,2013,33(8):52-60.
[5]姜海,曲福田.不同发展阶段建设用地扩张对经济增长的贡献与响应[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(1):70-75.JIANG H,QU F T.Contribution and response of constructed land expansion to economic growth at different development stages[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2009,19(1):70-75.
[6]冷智花,付畅俭.城镇化失衡发展对粮食安全的影响[J].经济学家,2014(11):58-65.LENG Z H,FU C J.The influence of the disequilibrium development of urbanization on foods security[J].Economist,2014(11):58-65.
[7]吕添贵,吴次芳,李洪义,等.人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调性测度及优化——以南昌市为例[J].地理科学,2016,36(2):239-246.LYU T G,WU C F,LI H Y,et al.The coordination and its optimization about population and land of urbanization:A case study of Nanchang city[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(2):239-246.
[8]翟伟萍,葛华,高尚,等.河南省城镇建设用地扩展驱动力的空间计量分析[J].河南大学学报(自然科学版),2015,45(4):431-436.ZHAI W P,GE H,GAO S,et al.A spatial econometric analysis of driving forces of urban construction land expansion in Henan Province[J].Journal of Henan University(Natural Science),2015,45(4):431-436.
[9]VERBURG P H,CHEN Y Q,VELDKAMP T A.Spatial explorations of land use change and grain production in China[J].Agriculture Ecosystems&Environment,2000,82(1-3SI):333-354.
[10]谈明洪,李秀彬,吕昌河.我国城市用地扩张的驱动力分析[J].经济地理,2003,23(5):635-639.TAN M H,LI X B,LYU C H.An analysis of driving forces of urban land expansion in China[J].Economic Geography,2003,23(5):635-639.
[11]GOLDSHLEGER N.Land-use and population density changes in Israel 1950to 1990:Analysis of regional and local trends[J].Land Use Policy,2002,19(2):123-133.
[12]高燕语,钟太洋.土地市场对城市建设用地扩张的影响——基于285个城市面板数据的分析[J].资源科学,2016,38(11):2024-2036.GAO Y Y,ZHONG T Y.Impacts of land market development on urban expansion:An empirical analysis based on panel data for 285cities in China[J].Resources Science,2016,38(11):2024-2036.
[13]杨东峰,熊国平.我国大城市空间增长机制的实证研究及政策建议——经济发展·人口增长·道路交通·土地资源[J].城市规划学刊,2008(1):51-56.YANG D F,XIONG G P.Mechanism of urban spatial growth in metropolitan of China:Economic development,popula-tion growth,transport and land resources[J].Urban Planning,2008(1):51-56.
[14]FORM W H.The place of social structure in the determination of land use[J].Social Forces,1954(32):317-323.
[15]赵可,张安录.城市建设用地、经济发展与城市化关系的计量分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(1):7-12.ZHAO K,ZHANG A L.An economic analysis of the relationships among urban construction land,economic development and level of urbanization[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2011,21(1):7-12.
[16]樊鹏飞,郭椿阳,刘志丹,等.城市化与城市土地集约利用耦合协调度评价及空间格局分析——以河南省为例[J].河南大学学报(自然科学版),2016,46(3):352-369.FAN P F,GUO C Y,LIU Z D,et al.Evaluation of coupling coordination degree between urbanization and intensive use of urban land and their spatial pattern analysis[J].Journal of Henan University(Natural Science),2016,46(3):352-369.
[17]童陆亿,胡守庚.中国主要城市建设用地扩张特征[J].资源科学,2016,38(1):50-61.TONG L Y,HU S G.Characterizations of urban sprawl in major Chinese cities[J].Resources Science,2016,38(1):50-61.
[18]周琰,张安录.武汉城市圈城市用地扩张对经济增长贡献度的动态研究——“两型社会”试验区设置前后的比较[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(7):1043-1051.ZHOU Y,ZHANG A L.A dynamic research on the contribution of urban land expansion to economic growth in Wuhan Metropolitan area:Comparison before and after the“resource-economical and environment-friendly society”experimental zone establishment[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2016,25(7):1043-1051.
[19]赵可,张安录,李平.城市建设用地扩张的驱动力——基于省际面板数据的分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(8):1323-1332.ZHAO K,ZHANG A L,LI P.Driving forces of urban construction land expansion:An empirical analysis based on panel data of provinces[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(8):1323-1332.
[20]马爱慧,张安录.建设用地扩张与经济发展动态计量分析[J].统计与决策,2011(4):112-114.MA A H,ZHANG A L.Dynamic analysis of construction land expansion and economic development[J].Statistics and Decision,2011(4):112-114.
[21]郭瑞敏,千怀遂,李明霞,等.广州市城市扩张和经济发展之间的关系[J].资源科学,2013,35(2):447-454.GUO R M,QIAN H S,LI M X,et al.The relationship between urban sprawl and economic development in Guangzhou[J].Resources Science,2013,35(2):447-454.
[22]王胜男,李阳,李猛.城镇化进程中的洛阳市区人口与建设用地扩展[J].河南大学学报(自然科学版),2011,41(6):593-598.WANG S N,LI Y,LI M.Expansion of population and built-up area in the city of Luoyang during the process of urbanization[J].Journal of Henan University(Natural Science),2011,41(6):593-598.
[23]FOTHERINGHAM A S,BRUNSDON C,CHARLTON M.Quantitative geography:Perspectives on spatial data analysis[M].London:SAGE Public Ations LTD,2000.
[24]刘鹏飞,周志民,张鹏岩.区域生态服务价值对土地利用变化的响应——以郑州市为例[J].河南大学学报(自然科学版),2013,43(6):643-649.LIU P F,ZHOU Z M,ZHANG P Y.Responses of ecosystem service value to land use change:A case study in Zhengzhou,China[J].Journal of Henan University(Natural Science),2013,43(6):643-649.
[2]高金龙,陈江龙,苏曦.中国城市扩张态势与驱动机理研究学派综述[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(5):743-754.GAO J L,CHEN J L,SU X.Urban expansion and its driving mechanism in China:From three main shools'perspectives[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(5):743-754.
[3]黄大全,金浩然,赵星烁.四类城市建设用地扩张影响因素研究——以北京市昌平区为例[J].资源科学,2014,36(3):454-462.HUANG D Q,JIN H R,ZHAO X S.Determinants of land conversion to urban uses in Changping district,Beijing[J].Resources Science,2014,36(3):454-462.
[4]白忠菊,藏波,杨庆媛.基于脱钩理论的城市扩张速度与经济发展的时空耦合研究——以重庆市为例[J].经济地理,2013,33(8):52-60.BAI Z J,CANG B,YANG Q Y.On the degrees of decoupling and re-coupling of spatial and temporal evaluation of urban expansion speed and economic development from 2000to 2010:A case study of Chongqing city[J].Economic Geography,2013,33(8):52-60.
[5]姜海,曲福田.不同发展阶段建设用地扩张对经济增长的贡献与响应[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(1):70-75.JIANG H,QU F T.Contribution and response of constructed land expansion to economic growth at different development stages[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2009,19(1):70-75.
[6]冷智花,付畅俭.城镇化失衡发展对粮食安全的影响[J].经济学家,2014(11):58-65.LENG Z H,FU C J.The influence of the disequilibrium development of urbanization on foods security[J].Economist,2014(11):58-65.
[7]吕添贵,吴次芳,李洪义,等.人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调性测度及优化——以南昌市为例[J].地理科学,2016,36(2):239-246.LYU T G,WU C F,LI H Y,et al.The coordination and its optimization about population and land of urbanization:A case study of Nanchang city[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(2):239-246.
[8]翟伟萍,葛华,高尚,等.河南省城镇建设用地扩展驱动力的空间计量分析[J].河南大学学报(自然科学版),2015,45(4):431-436.ZHAI W P,GE H,GAO S,et al.A spatial econometric analysis of driving forces of urban construction land expansion in Henan Province[J].Journal of Henan University(Natural Science),2015,45(4):431-436.
[9]VERBURG P H,CHEN Y Q,VELDKAMP T A.Spatial explorations of land use change and grain production in China[J].Agriculture Ecosystems&Environment,2000,82(1-3SI):333-354.
[10]谈明洪,李秀彬,吕昌河.我国城市用地扩张的驱动力分析[J].经济地理,2003,23(5):635-639.TAN M H,LI X B,LYU C H.An analysis of driving forces of urban land expansion in China[J].Economic Geography,2003,23(5):635-639.
[11]GOLDSHLEGER N.Land-use and population density changes in Israel 1950to 1990:Analysis of regional and local trends[J].Land Use Policy,2002,19(2):123-133.
[12]高燕语,钟太洋.土地市场对城市建设用地扩张的影响——基于285个城市面板数据的分析[J].资源科学,2016,38(11):2024-2036.GAO Y Y,ZHONG T Y.Impacts of land market development on urban expansion:An empirical analysis based on panel data for 285cities in China[J].Resources Science,2016,38(11):2024-2036.
[13]杨东峰,熊国平.我国大城市空间增长机制的实证研究及政策建议——经济发展·人口增长·道路交通·土地资源[J].城市规划学刊,2008(1):51-56.YANG D F,XIONG G P.Mechanism of urban spatial growth in metropolitan of China:Economic development,popula-tion growth,transport and land resources[J].Urban Planning,2008(1):51-56.
[14]FORM W H.The place of social structure in the determination of land use[J].Social Forces,1954(32):317-323.
[15]赵可,张安录.城市建设用地、经济发展与城市化关系的计量分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(1):7-12.ZHAO K,ZHANG A L.An economic analysis of the relationships among urban construction land,economic development and level of urbanization[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2011,21(1):7-12.
[16]樊鹏飞,郭椿阳,刘志丹,等.城市化与城市土地集约利用耦合协调度评价及空间格局分析——以河南省为例[J].河南大学学报(自然科学版),2016,46(3):352-369.FAN P F,GUO C Y,LIU Z D,et al.Evaluation of coupling coordination degree between urbanization and intensive use of urban land and their spatial pattern analysis[J].Journal of Henan University(Natural Science),2016,46(3):352-369.
[17]童陆亿,胡守庚.中国主要城市建设用地扩张特征[J].资源科学,2016,38(1):50-61.TONG L Y,HU S G.Characterizations of urban sprawl in major Chinese cities[J].Resources Science,2016,38(1):50-61.
[18]周琰,张安录.武汉城市圈城市用地扩张对经济增长贡献度的动态研究——“两型社会”试验区设置前后的比较[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(7):1043-1051.ZHOU Y,ZHANG A L.A dynamic research on the contribution of urban land expansion to economic growth in Wuhan Metropolitan area:Comparison before and after the“resource-economical and environment-friendly society”experimental zone establishment[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2016,25(7):1043-1051.
[19]赵可,张安录,李平.城市建设用地扩张的驱动力——基于省际面板数据的分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(8):1323-1332.ZHAO K,ZHANG A L,LI P.Driving forces of urban construction land expansion:An empirical analysis based on panel data of provinces[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(8):1323-1332.
[20]马爱慧,张安录.建设用地扩张与经济发展动态计量分析[J].统计与决策,2011(4):112-114.MA A H,ZHANG A L.Dynamic analysis of construction land expansion and economic development[J].Statistics and Decision,2011(4):112-114.
[21]郭瑞敏,千怀遂,李明霞,等.广州市城市扩张和经济发展之间的关系[J].资源科学,2013,35(2):447-454.GUO R M,QIAN H S,LI M X,et al.The relationship between urban sprawl and economic development in Guangzhou[J].Resources Science,2013,35(2):447-454.
[22]王胜男,李阳,李猛.城镇化进程中的洛阳市区人口与建设用地扩展[J].河南大学学报(自然科学版),2011,41(6):593-598.WANG S N,LI Y,LI M.Expansion of population and built-up area in the city of Luoyang during the process of urbanization[J].Journal of Henan University(Natural Science),2011,41(6):593-598.
[23]FOTHERINGHAM A S,BRUNSDON C,CHARLTON M.Quantitative geography:Perspectives on spatial data analysis[M].London:SAGE Public Ations LTD,2000.
[24]刘鹏飞,周志民,张鹏岩.区域生态服务价值对土地利用变化的响应——以郑州市为例[J].河南大学学报(自然科学版),2013,43(6):643-649.LIU P F,ZHOU Z M,ZHANG P Y.Responses of ecosystem service value to land use change:A case study in Zhengzhou,China[J].Journal of Henan University(Natural Science),2013,43(6):643-649.